 It is going to be another weird week for NFL DFS with a lot of the key studs on the week 16 main slate being out for one reason or another. What would be COVID injuries, et cetera, et cetera. And it puts us in a position where we have to prioritize the studs we want to use. We have to decide how things will break based on those guys being unavailable and decide where we want to go for the values on which should be a hopefully plentiful value slate in week number 16. We're going to dive on in and get you set for the main slate. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in numberfire.com. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor for numberfire.com. Brandon week 16 is looking kind of funky, but also a lot to dissect. How are you doing today? I'm good. I'm a little worried about you. You keep looking over your shoulder. I think my, I think Rosa is seeing her reflection in the fireplace. There's like a glass thing in front of the fireplace and it scared her and your dog for context. Yeah. Yeah. I should clarify that it's a dog and not a human, but now she's staring at her reflection and I think she's unsettled. She seems actually she seems comfortable now. Maybe she's got become friends with her reflection. I'm not sure. Maybe this is like a metaphor. There's something deeper to be identified here. Teachable moment. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm good now that she's good. Like that's why we were delayed. Like the intro ran longer than usual because she started like barking. And I was like, did something fall into the fireplace? I was very confused, but she's she's good now. I think maybe for now we'll see. We have to keep tabs on the situation, which is apropos for this entire week. Yes, exactly. So how are you? Well, I'm good. I mean, I'm as good as I can be with with respect to this slate and all of the uncertainties. I think it was last week where I really mentioned, I don't know if it was on air. Might have been before the show. I was like, I don't have a good grasp for matchups because I'm just trying to like focus on who's playing, who's in, who's out. It's another week like that. Obviously, you know, I know what the matchups are, but it's less about like digging into matchups and more constantly trying to update expectations for offenses. And for me, I'd rather care. I care more about offensive expectations. If you're, you know, if you're quarterbacks in or out, then I do about like specific slot level matchups. So still kind of a week where I'm waiting to see what's going to happen with some of these teams. So it's a, you know, it's it's not new because we had it last week, but it's still kind of new in the grand scheme of thing. Yeah, I think that's when you like, when you open up the, uh, the fan dual player pool, you look, look at the highest salary guys are a lot of guys who are out when you do that. It's not quite MBA level where it's like the entire player pool. Um, I'm sure that you've had a grand old time with that, but it is some key players. What we'll do today is break down implications of those key guys, potentially being out. Not all of them are assured to be out yet because they could test back in stuff like that will break down which value we can actually accept, which we should reject and get you set for week 16. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are entered into the listener, listener league for this week. Go to fandual.com slash league slash listener league. Fandual.com slash league slash listener league, $5 entry. Three entries max. There is no rake for this contest. So Fandual.com slash league slash listener league. She's barking at herself again. Are you okay? We're here. Hang out with me. She's, she's very confused by that. Anyway, Fandual.com slash league slash listener league, $5 entry. Three entries max. There is no rake for that to get yourself in on the action. Also, it's a holiday season and that can mean only one thing. Santa Barclay is back from now until December 27th. Do you have the opportunity to compete in free MBA daily fantasy contest on Fandual for a chance to win cash prizes? All you got to do is go to Fandual.com. That's met your best nine a player lineup into the Santa Barclay MBA free play contest and follow along as the games unfold with nearly $7 million worth of gifts being given out. Now is the time to get into the holiday spirit by heading over to Fandual and participating in the seven days of Santa Barclay age and location restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited. See terms at Fandual.com. I know we said before the show because we got a lot to go over. If that's going to keep the chatter to a minimum, but I just wanted to point out and I thought you would appreciate this when I heard Santa Barclay. I think the obvious play on words is like the Santa baby thing, but my mind first went to Santa Barbara because of psych and I thought you would appreciate that. I do appreciate that. Thank you. I will take all I was thinking sake one Barclay. It's Charles to be clear. His name was not actually I'm not sure allowed to say his name because it's not weirdly not in there. Anyway, Santa Barclay, not sake one. I don't think we're talking about sake one today. So anyway, let's take a look at the slate overview for week number 16 and branded to me. The key thing for this week is digging into each potential value option deciding which we should accept in which we should reject and being picky. I think that's the key thing for me. What about you? Yeah, I think we really got to be picky with the values. So I'm piggybacking off of what you said, but the way that I think that I explain it to myself all the time is where can I replace high end performance with values? And if I can't, then I don't think that there's actually value there. So it running back with potentially just Alvin Cook at the top. You know, we have Ronald Jones, Devin Singletary, a few other guys. They can probably replicate everyone other than Dalvin Cook on the high end at quarterback. You know, we have Patrick Mahomes, depending on how his situation goes. You know, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford. Can some of these other quarterbacks get there? If they can't, then I don't think that we actually have value. So basically saying the same thing as you, but really kind of making sure that we're not playing like low upside just right ready to bust value plays who aren't really set for good, good workloads. Right. And I think that that's an important thing here because like you look at the chief situation with no Terry killed, no Travis Kelsey, like I could be like, oh, yeah, with Blake Bell out, too, I could talk myself into Noah Gray, but like, do I need to? I could talk myself into Byron Pringle. Do I need to? I could talk myself into Miko Harman. Do I need to? And the answer could be yes to some of those. We'll talk about, you know, the route for deciding that, but I can allow myself to be picky. And I think that's a key thing for this week and not force myself because we've had slates this year where I've had to use guys I hated just because like, you know, I was in that situation. I don't think this is one of those weeks. So we'll break down what that all means in just one second. Speaking of the cheese, let's move now to the injury section. They are back on the main slate, but they may be without both Travis Kelsey and Terry killed. They are both currently on the COVID list, but they could test out before Sunday, meaning that there's a chance that they could play, but most like I would think that they probably sit. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. The bucks big three got hurt on Sunday night are all likely out this week. Chris Godwin done for the year. Leonard Fournette may be done until the playoffs. Mike Evans did not practice Wednesday, but Antonio Brown's able to get an unlimited practice on Wednesday. His suspension is done and he should be back this week. You'll go through that team in the trend section. Los Angeles Chargers has some COVID issues right now. This week they put Austin Eckler and Jalen Guyton on the COVID list, which could mean there are more to come potentially there. Joy Bosa on the defensive side is in the COVID list. He will not play this week. Brandon Cooks on Texans is also on the COVID list. We'll talk about this game in the bookmaker section. Jared Goff is on the COVID list entering a match with the Falcons. Deandre Swift is back at practice Wednesday though, meaning that he can be back this week from a shoulder injury. So let's talk about the Lions here. How would you handle them if golf were to sit and any interest in Deandre Swift if he returns this week? I was hoping to get Jared Goff because this game as we joked about on Monday was pretty appealing. I don't think it's very appealing now if we're going to get a full game of Tim Boyle though. It's a bit tough to wrap my head around on a full slate like this even with all the other absences. I saw a story from a great beer pour Dave Burkett for Detroit and it was like, hey, the Lions kept the leash on Tim Boyle this first start. They may allow him to do more in his second start and I was like, not sure how much more there is left to be done there. Yeah. That's I mean, look, we actually that I can't say we can talk about Jared Goff in a negative sense because we have one of us typically does not. Well, how could you? I'm not going to lie. Actually, what yeah, one of our trend ideas was going to be about how the the Lions were playing some good football. Be a Tim Boyle. I don't think that we can go there. He was he was a biz one week 11 that that and that's a perfect example of yes, we might get Deandre Swift back. But if he's tied to Tim Boyle, I don't have a whole lot of interest. Yeah, I think that like Swift, if it were tied to Goff, like if Goff comes back, then maybe we could potentially get behind that. Swift is $7800. He does great out decently well relative to the rest of the backs on the slate if we have Goff. If there's no Goff, that's tougher. How would you view Swift if Goff is cleared by Sunday? So with running back looking the way that it does, I would have a good amount of interest. Although 78 is kind of steep. Yeah, that would be more of a less of a core play, more of a game stack sort of play where I'm building around the Falcons as well. Mostly Kyle Pitts in that context or Cordero Patterson just to get that floated out there. But, you know, I think that he would be on a fuller slate, not really someone that I would be aiming to play. But with running back being a little bit light at the top, that would that would ball Tim up. Yeah, I think that he would be, I put him below James Robinson, it was 82 in that same range facing the Jets. I put him with Goff. Yeah, sorry with Goff. And then I put him above Mixon, though, if Goff plays. I put him above Patterson if Goff plays. Buffs 8-1 obviously, but below Sony Michelle. So like he'd be like a rotational piece. I would think if Goff plays and if not, then I just, you know, I'm okay. Not touching these lions. Lamar Jackson missed another practice on Wednesday due to his ankle issue. It seems like he has a chance to play this week, but doesn't help that he missed practice. They're facing the Bengals. It's a tight spread in like a non-terrible total for this game. So what's your view of the Ravens and how does it shift with Jackson starting versus Tyler Huntley? I like Tyler Huntley. Yeah, I can say that much. Yeah. Thankfully though, this team is so concentrated that it's, you know, is there enough to play Marquis Andrews and Marquis Brown? And then are you going to play either quarterback? Lamar has been rough. I don't know what's going on. He hasn't been particularly good. This team has been playing a lot faster with Tyler Huntley under center, which I like for both sides of the ball. The Packers ended up running a decent amount of plays by the end of that game, but early on last week, they were not on the field very much. So that's kind of within the context of the full game, but either way, I think Mark Andrews is a slam dunk option even at that high salary of 8,000. So it's like there's a big difference in how this offense operates in terms of pace between the two, uh, two quarterbacks, but because I'm over Devonte Freeman based on the work we saw from last week, it's, it's more just a matter of can I still play Mark Andrews either way? And I can. Yeah, I think that I can too. What about Hollywood? No. Um, I don't, I don't hate it, but I don't pivot off of, I think it had to be just a pivot off of Andrews. He's 64 and like he has good market share still. Yeah. So you'd have to be just as a pivot off of Mark Andrews for me. I think, yeah. And again, um, similar to like a DeAndre Swift, which I know I guess had a, had a good game in that Tim Boyle start, but I don't want to bank on that. Yeah. Uh, this is a game that I don't hate. I kind of like the Bengals a bit. So I could see myself having more Mark East Brown than I would, you know, originally think because I like this game and I'm going to talk about Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense a good bit. So it's 6400 Mark East Brown pairs well with Jamar Chase and 71 and or T Higgins at 65. So again, like I'm going to be higher on Mark East Brown than I am in a vacuum because I like this like this game, um, a decent amount. Uh, if you have 10 burrow lineups, what's your bring back distribution between Andrews and Mark East Brown? Um, probably six Andrews for Brown. Yeah, I'd agree that. Okay. Tyler Lockett has not been activity of the COVID list, but Pete Carroll said Wednesday, they were expecting he would be soon. So we can expect Lockett to play this week. They are facing the bears. Any interest in the Seahawks passing offense in that game? Coming, you know, coming from someone who really talked up this, uh, passing offense in the peripherals. I hate to like jump ship right now because it was bad in week 15. But this is a team that's playing on a short week. And I think that there's, you know, something to that that we should at least consider factoring in. And obviously Tyler Lockett is the guy, which is kind of weird. Um, yeah, just in the sense of like not, that's no disrespect to Tyler Lockett. It's just more DK Metcalf's not really moving that offense. It's been Tyler Lockett. So I'm a lot higher on this offense with Tyler Lockett back, presumably. Yeah, I just don't know if I quite need to get there. Um, on this slate. So I'm probably not going to play Russ. I would consider Lockett for sure though. And I think I might not. I don't know if I can talk myself into DK Metcalf anymore. It's tough because like the shares for Metcalf are good. He has, uh, he has the same number of share targets. Actually, there's one more target than Lockett since Russ returned the games they've played together. Uh, 23% versus 22% target share. Lockett has double the deep targets. Uh, but Metcalf has a 30% red zone share. So the path to upside is still there. And I think that matters if he's going to go completely overlooked. I think that he benefits with Lockett being back just because that passing offense should be a lot more efficient. That's been his volume is not been the issue. It's been efficiency and they should be more efficient with Lockett in there. So I think that he is interesting. Like I prefer more Russell Gage, despite the fact that Gage is a very good matchup. I prefer him over. I guess Odell is in a really good game. I don't know. Mike Williams is getting good market shares again. Uh, T Higgins is pretty great. So maybe I actually not as high in DKs. I thought just cause like that, that mid 6000 range is better than it's been almost the entire year. Yeah. Um, one thing that I need to do more and I've built this out. Um, for the sake of tracking it better this year, but an expected Fandall points model just to see who's overperforming, underperforming in these small samples. And then of course they get caught up and who's producing and then, you know, right like a dummy, but I'm in those five games with Wilson back where they've both played. I do have very pretty similar expected Fandall points per game. Yeah, 12.1 for Lockett 10.6 for Metcalf. But, Lockett's at 13.4 actual Fandall points, Metcalf at 5.2. Metcalf's catch rate over expectations about five points lower than it should be. And you know, not a whole lot of guys maintain high catch rate over expectation numbers. He should be able to. Yeah. Lockett's been doing it. So like Lockett's overperforming with his workload, Metcalf's underperforming. So don't write off DK Metcalf if you like this passing game. If you like this game at all, but within the context of the full slate, really not a priority play, even though there's a lot pointing to positive regression coming for him. Just weird vibes. But I think that yeah, that's it's weird. Adam Thielen able to get in a limited session on Wednesday for the Vikings. First practice for him since his ankle injury. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Cole Beasley is on the cover list of the build, which means he will be out on Sunday. Emmanuel Sanders took place in a walkthrough or took part in a walkthrough on Wednesday. Mixed up the words there, meaning that Sanders could be back on Sunday. We'll talk about the bills in the trend section. Damian Harris back at practice Wednesday. The Patriots, he was limited with his hamstring injury. Ramon or Stevenson mispractice, but that was due to an illness, which means he should be good to go. So are we good? If we assume Harris is back to just write off this backfield. Yes, if Harris is back, I'm going to write it off for sure. They've had Harris sits. Would you go back to Stevenson? Um, I don't think so. Last week is bad for his usage, but they were also in a negative script. The entire game. I think they would be again this week. Could be. Yeah. I did bet the bills. So, you know, $1,500 probably wouldn't get a lot of interest in people just because he did flop last week, but Stevenson without Harris or Devon single Terry in the same game. Probably singletary. It's single Terry doesn't have a brain and bold in the equivalent. Yeah. Okay. Miles Sanders was practiced Wednesday due to a quad issue. Sounds like he'll be okay. If we assume that Sanders does play, what's your read on him and Jordan Howard versus the Giants? So I'm pretty sure they ended up playing the same. He and Howard played the same amount of snaps. Exact same. Yeah. And we in part because he missed that final drive with apparently this like he's been banged up, but I think they were like, Okay, close it out. Howard and we'll let Sanders up a bit. So I was going to say that that's part of it, but Sanders actually had all four running back red zone carries in that game, which is very promising. He's still got to deal with Jalen Hertz and his ability to score multiple touchdowns on the ground, which I never like. I guess if you want to account for that, I look at red zone share, which includes running or quarterback rushes. He's a 30% in that game, which is below average. It's not not ideal, I would say. Yeah. So I downgrade every running back who plays with a washing with a rushing quarterback or more specifically a quarterback who gets goal line carries. I think I do that for everyone, but aside from Christian McCaffrey. So yeah, I'm going to downgrade Miles Sanders. There's still a chance that he loses some goal line work if he's not a hundred percent. So I'm probably not going to chase it. And again, another team playing on a short week. Right. He's gotten by recently on like crazy, crazy efficiency. The volume has been underwhelming when you do like what we do is we keep multiple or we double the target total to get adjust opportunities. Yeah. When you do that, he's at about 20 per game in the two games with Howard. Like that's that's not great. He's at 120 yards per game. So he's been very good from that perspective, but it's tough. So I'm probably okay. Missing out. It does scare me because like he has a path to 130 yards and a touchdown, which could hurt me, but you know, I think with Ronald Jones there with single Terry, Justin Jackson, you know, like those guys, you know, yeah, it is tough with like look, we, we don't do film and like talent level stuff to a big degree. I know enough about film to know that Miles Sanders is a really talented running back. But his role is not the same as like a Devin single Terry right now. And that has to factor in. He's overperforming like crazy, but that's not really enough for me to to want to like hang hat on. Yeah. So yeah. And his efficiency does increase with Hertz there because Hertz opens up rushing lanes, but still Joe mix was able to get in a limited session on Wednesday indicating he should be good to go after he sprained his ankle last week. You'll talk about the Bengals in the trend section. Kendrick Bourne is on the COVID list. Patriots typically across off, but if Bourne were to sit, would that give you interest in any Patriots past catchers this week? That's going to be a no for me dog. There's no upside in this passing offense. They've yet to have a 100 yard receiver in a single game. Bourne's gotten to 98 and 96. I don't really see a reason to play. Kobe's got 98 and 94 and got 12 targets last week. He's now allowed to square touchdowns. Are you are you going to play Jacobi Myers? I hope not. So like I've got a lineup in front of me right now where I have 6,000 left from my final receiver slot. Ideally, I'd want to retool that to get up to T or someone else, anyone else, Marquis Brown. But like, you know, in the 5,000 range, I could just go down to Gabriel Davis or something like that, or I could settle for, you know, Jacobi Myers, I guess I don't want to and I probably won't, but like he's more of a consideration to me than he typically would be. That's the way I'd phrase it. Yeah, I'll say this much. We have value on this slate. We don't have a whole lot of receivers in the 5,000 range who stand out to a huge degree. So within that, if you build a lineup and you really, really need to go there or you build a lineup and you're at 6,000 or 5,800 left or whatever and you already have Gabriel Davis, I could see that. Yeah, but that's it. He's not someone I'm like plugging into a cash game. And feeling great about it's something that I'm inspiring. She has tissue. Okay. James and Crowder missed practice on Wednesday. Typically, I wouldn't care about a jet sky missing practice, but based on the Jags, I might have to any interest in Braxton Berrios, Keelan Cole, Denzel Minns if Crowder sits. This is another spot where like, please don't make me do this. I don't want to do this. I don't want to do this. Jim's dealing with some stuff. I'm trying to. Yeah, I muted myself for a second. I'm trying to like brush off the jets past catchers and I don't have a whole lot else to say, but. She's not letting tissue right now. So she's being very mischievous and bad. And she's got the whole thing in her mouth. So we're going to go to bookmaker info. I'm going to ask you about no jets for you then. No. Okay. Pretty traditional game stack in Minnesota, the Vikings and the Rams total is 49 and a half. Rams are favored by three. We tend to know who's getting the ball on both sides here. A luxury we don't. We haven't had recently. So are you checking this game out as a return to our game stacking process, which we've kind of had to abandon in recent weeks. Yeah, we have abandoned the usual process. This is the game of the week to stack in this manner where we know where the ball's going. Good, you know, good over under tight spread. So yeah, this would be the only game I think at the moment that I would consider like a traditional game stack, although. Bengals Ravens might kind of fit there, which I'll talk about more. Yeah, cause I like Joe Burrow. I think there's a lot to like about him this week. But yeah, I mean, this is like, this is our bread and butter. And that kind of sounds dumb as like, Hey, we like to stack games with high, high totals, tight spreads, and we know where the ball's going. But like that's, you know, that's what we do. What's your favorite stack here? So I've been tinkering with this. So I said I had 6000 left. That was in a lineup with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kup and Justin Jefferson. Love it. I think that's pretty good. But like, I think realistically, my favorite one might be Stafford Kup Dalvin because Dalvin's my favorite running back on the slate outside of Ronald Jones. So I think it's one of those two. I'm undecided which way I would lean. But like, I think I would go Stafford Kup Dalvin right now. I probably would as well. Yeah, which again is like, yeah, we're not pushing out the hot takes. Those will come later on in the show. Yeah. But you can't really look at this and say this is bad process to build around Cooper Kup who, I don't know. I mean, I don't know if he's just that good of a route runner, but I get frustrated sometimes whenever like, you know who they want to throw a team wants to throw the ball to. I get to stay away with Devonte Adams too. It's like, how's this dude just wide open, like sitting in the middle of the zone? Is he that good or are teams just like not accounting enough for it? And it just frustrates me. But Cooper Kup gets to do that. And that's awesome. So boy, a lot less frustrating when he's on your roster. I'll say yes. It is. And look, I'm not a coach. I'm just analyzing the FS here. So I get it. But like this dude's just kind of open a lot and yeah, you know, double digit targets and all but one game in that game where he didn't get there. He had nine. He's scoring. He's getting yardage like he can pay off without. I think Jim's frozen for me, but he can pay off without a touchdown. Let's see if Jim's there. But if not, if I don't hear back from Jim in a second, I will proceed. I think I lost Jim. So yeah, Cooper cup. Great play this week. I think that's extremely well with Matthew Stafford not too big of an issue in terms of salary, even with Cup at 98 because we have Ronald Jones and Devin Singletary so under salary. All right. Okay. Are you bet? I hear Jim. Yeah, sorry. I was going to just keep going. I don't actually have a contingency plan for if you bow out, but I was going to move on to the next game. Yeah, so anyway. No, I want to talk about the insider pieces interest level in feeling. You might have already talked about this. You are talking about. No, I was talking about Cooper cup being a great play and how even his salary like with like the combo of Cup and Jones just kind of campuses either each other out. So like, I don't think cups salary is really restrictive. Yeah. Okay. So interest level for you in feeling. I was going to say Conklin. I don't know if we need to talk about that interest level in feeling Van Odell and Sonny Michelle. I'm pretty high. Like this is just a good game overall. And I know that that's, you know, a lot of names to consider, but there's a there's a difference between like we know the balls going to those guys at a pretty high market share number with feeling. I know in the past, he's like played minimally and he would just come in in the red zone and like have a red zone role. That's still appealing in a game where they should be in the red zone a decent amount. Yeah. That would not make me feel great about playing him. Realistically, I'm going to be underweight on Adam feeling at 72. It's a bit high for a player who, you know, I don't know the full health and you know, he's got two games with double digit targets. There's some yardage juice there. The results have actually been a lot better than like feeling of old, at least in the way that I view it, like the touchdowns are there. And then there's about like that 80 yards potential. So I mean, I'll probably still be underweight on him. What are your thoughts there? Yeah, I probably will too. Like if you gave me 10 game stacks here, I think I'd put Thielen in one versus like the others just being Jefferson and Cook, probably five down for Jefferson one Thielen. I would still get Thielen in there because he's a 34% deep target share in the games he has played, 28% red zone share. That's still good enough at his salary. I think that the way I would do it though is just pair with Cup, whereas with Cook and Jefferson, I want to get them with Van. I want to get them with Odell to get those combinations with Thielen. I will just go like a full optimal, which would include Cooper Cup in there for them. Let's go to the second game here, which is the Chiefs versus the Steelers. Chiefs ravaged. Oh, sorry. Let's let's let him shell. Let's do that first. I think Michelle is actually pretty interesting for this late. He kind of played out the way we expected last week where I guess we had talked about where he was the lead back still despite Henderson being back. But I don't think that was because Henderson was coming off the COVID list, coming off an injury. I think it's just like, he's better. 22 adjusted opportunities, 115 yards, three out of four red zone opportunities for the team. I think Michelle is below Ronald Jones, probably below Singletary, definitely below Dalvin. But in that mid range, he might be number one for me. What about for you? Yeah. And that specific period is number one. The 71% snap rate 18 carries some target usage just looked looked good. Had that at least one long run that I can recall Darrell Henderson kind of remember I'm getting like hit and falling over pretty. I mean, I like Darrell Henderson when he's playing 85% of the snaps and getting a lot of work didn't like him as much as other people, but that's not really the case anymore. So I'm I'm in on Sony at that salary 69 is a bit too nice to pass up on Sony in this game with about a 70% snap rate. Yeah, I'd agree with that as well. Okay. So let's talk about cheese now implied total still pretty high on them despite the COVID stuff. They're at 26 right now for their game with the Steelers as of recording here Thursday morning. Travis Kelsey and Terry Keeler on the COVID list. They could miss. They could be back. I think baseline assumption should be that they will not play. So are you looking at any of the fill ins here? Are you crossing off the homes? Do we avoid the cheese entirely? Any bring back options on the Steelers? What's your view of this game? The easiest place might be to start with the Steelers because there's not an offense that I like and if this game is going to be like even more shuttered, not a big fan of anyone off from the Steelers side. Najee Harris, you know, has has that cheese match up their their 31st and rushing success rate allowed to running backs, but Najee Harris really hasn't made me worry about using him or not using him. I guess pretty sure I saw a tweet from you on your day off about his red zone work being a lot worse. That's an issue. So I think for the Steelers, I don't really want to play them. I would be more open to it if we have Tyree Kill in Travis Kelsey just because of the idea that they'll need to throw the ball more, but outside of that, I'm not really in on the Steelers. Yeah, it could just be a really gross game. The Najee thing was he had a 40% red zone share in each of his first five games and he has not hit that mark since then. So the red zone role has gotten just kicked in the crotch and that's disappointing. I mean, like I would go towards Deontay if I thought this game had a shot of like shooting out, but I don't think it does really anymore. He's $74. He's not low salary. Let's talk about the chiefs here. I think the one guy I might be willing to like check out as a result of these absences actually Clyde Edwards-Elair at $6500. He would be a rotational piece more so than anything I couldn't like prioritize him above Michelle or any anyone else, but could think about this in the sense that okay, they're down some guys Steelers Rush defense been pretty bad. Maybe they decide to be a bit more run heavy this week did play. I think 69% of the snaps in week number 15. The red zone role was still really bad, which is why I can't prioritize him, but I could see using him as like a rotational play in order to get exposure to a team that should still be pretty efficient with Patrick Mahomes in the quarterback. So I think that'd be the one route it looked towards. I don't really know if I really want to take stabs at Pringle, Hardman, Gray, etc., etc., but I think that that CEH is least interesting. What about for you among the like the guys who are remaining here? Yeah, I was actually going to say I think that CEH is the most appealing, but because you talked about him, I won't stick on that point. But Byron Pringle has been running ahead of all of the he's been the tertiary pass catcher. So he's been the third guy since the buy. Miko Hardman is really falling out of favor running behind DeMarcus Robinson as well. On the routes last week were 73% for Pringle and Robinson and 42% for Miko Hardman. Hardman still does get a decent like target per route rate. So I don't want to write him off entirely. We also know that he's been there number three early on in the season. So within this game, he might benefit from like a more of a tirey kill role than especially than like a DeMarcus Robinson. So I wouldn't write that off, but yeah, that's really only if I'm building. I think I'm most likely to play a bunch of chiefs receivers in the spots where I'm playing Stafford Cup, Dalvin, maybe also trying to jam in Justin Jefferson or getting Mark Andrews in that same lineup and just saying I'm going all in on these superstars with high salaries and fantastic usage, I'm assuming that the mid range is just not that particularly good, which is kind of scary because like you said, the 6000 range of receiver actually really good this week, but I could see myself doing that with like a Gabe Davis, Pringle or Hardman, Jacobi. But that's really about it. And we just don't have the running backs like I don't need it. I can't even if I do that, then I don't have the running backs to get to. So yeah, I think that I prefer Hardman because he's the one getting the bigger role change like Pringle is already out there. So his role is really changing. It's just like will he command a larger target share per route? And probably yeah, but like how much will it increase? I'm not sure if it'll be a ton whereas Hardman, I think that he would probably get seven ish targets, which is not terrible for his salary. So I prefer Hardman over Pringle, but it's not it's not a situation where I'm super confident in Hardman's role. The Chargers have their own covid problems currently at the highest implied total on the slate, despite that. That's a 27.75 for the match with the Texans. Austin Eckler is currently on the covid list. So are Joey Bosa and Brandon Cooks. Great matchup for the Chargers here. Do the covid unavailabilities worry you for the Chargers side? Any bring back interest? What's your view of this one? So I actually love Justin Herbert this week a lot. He's got the 10 days since plan that she's on Thursday night on week 15. Plan the Texans. They need wins. I think that this all sets up really well for Justin Herbert with or without Austin Eckler. I would imagine that the efficiency numbers with Herbert's passing with Eckler on the field is better, which is not always the case for running backs that don't always make a difference, but with Eckler, I'm sure it does. But Herbert whenever I dug back without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams was still actually pretty good either way. So I think it's just proof that he's a good quarterback. So I love the Chargers here. Have a lot of Chargers recommendations and I don't want to write things off too much if I don't have Austin Eckler in terms of offensive expectations dropping out. But I don't know if I'm going to get to the running backs. Yeah. So I was trying to get I was hoping to get your feel for the running backs. I know Justin Jackson was the guy in week 15. I was looking at their EPA splits with the without Austin Eckler and they're very strange. I'm not even going to say them. Okay. They're a lot better without them and I don't think that's accurate. So I'm just not going to say it. Yeah. I think that like if you're looking at this offense last year, they had a situation where Eckler missed a bunch of games due to his hamstring injury, but like the guys who were available constantly was changing. There was a three game sample in which Justin Jackson was was active and Eckler was inactive in those games. Jackson averaged 12.3 carries and 5.7 targets per game. He got to 97 yards from scrimmage per game, which is pretty good pressure for a guy $5400. But I think he had one out of what number is this one out of 24 red zone opportunities. They prefer to go to Joshua Kelly there. I'd expect Larry Roundtree to be active if Eckler can't go. So the touchdown upside is pretty muted, which means that he is tears behind Ronald Jones in terms of value options. I would still use him. It would just be in a much more limited capacity, like a 20% rotational value play in the same mold of a C E H kind of where I'm like, I'd like to use this guy a bit, but I don't want to go too crazy, whereas Jones will be like pretty much every line up. I would say Jackson to be like a half tier below Singletary is where I think I'd be on that ref roughly. So still a good play, but not like a great play. So basically Ronald Jones tier one Singletary tier two Justin Jackson tier two and a half among those value guys. Yes, I think that's about accurate. Yeah, because the touchdown concerns are the real issue. And again, Justin Herbert can score on the goal line. So that's a little bit of an issue. Yeah, paired with Justin Jackson's just historical trends of not really being much of a red zone threat. Although I will say if you play Jones Jackson and Singletary with like a $3900 defense, you got 7900 left for three receivers, a tight end and a quarterback. That's pretty nice. That's getting you like Stafford Andrews cup and then like mid range receivers. It's pretty good. So yeah, I can give behind that for sure. So Jackson someone I'll definitely use if Echler can't go. I do want to make sure I'm accounting for those touchdown upside concerns. As far as the past catchers go here, I agree with you where Herbert is a top three quarterback on the slate. I think that it's him, Stafford and burrow battling for the top with me. I think that Joan Hertz is at least in that discussion as well at quarterback. It's a it's a good matchup. Typically I'd worry about the Texans keeping pace, but I think given the scoring environment, I can't be as picky. So I think I just kind of have to accept it. The Chargers, I believe are the yeah, so my I have like projected efficiency for each team. They are the number one team of projected efficiency by 0.02 net expected points per play. Just pretty good. It's a decent little gap over the Rams in second. So that means Herbert us to be in play. That means that's behind the past catchers. I prefer let's go with Mike Williams due to salary. I think the Keenan definitely works, but like if we look at the two games they've played where they're letting Herbert rip it a bit more and throw deep a bit more with Keenan and Mike Williams healthy. It's 25% share for Allen compared 22% from Mike Williams. But Williams has double the deep targets and basically as many red zone targets that that's the split that pushes me towards Williams here. Yeah, love Mike Williams. Again, I have been down on him from weeks 4 through 12 one game with the target share of better than 20%. He's been at 2020 and 24% the past three games that works and I'm to the point now in the season where you know you can talk about blowout potential and stuff, but the Chargers need wins and that's going to come if they don't have Austin Eckler. It's going to come through Justin Herbert and the past catchers. So, you know, I'm getting to that point where I'm I'm selling out for playoff implications a little bit early and I think it's not going to be a big big mistake. Although I did say last week where the odds kind of Murray bus against the Lions did, but I don't see a whole lot of paths to a horrible game for Justin Herbert against the Texans. I would agree at that as well. Okay, so let's move now into the trend section here for week number 16 and start things off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're kind of the other key source of value on the slate outside of potentially the chiefs and the Chargers, depending on the running back news there. You're talking about what to expect out of this team with no Chris Godwin, no Mike Evans, no Leonard Fornette. It's a lot of good lot to go through. So I'll let you handle this one and then we'll see where we wind up there. Yeah, so, you know, they this team is without a lot of big names on offense and you and I will almost always say, hey, when this happens downgrade the offense, which we're going to do. But if you still have Rob Gronkowski, you're getting back Antonio Brown, it's a little bit different than some other offenses, you know, are dealing with Ronald Jones expected for a big role according to Bruce Ariane. So you got to love that. Now we'll have to do some guesswork to figure out what this offense will do because we have not had a game yet without Godwin and Evans. But in week 15 with Fornette Godwin and Evans all failing to get to 50% of the snaps we saw a primary beneficiary in route rate. That's Tyler Johnson who ran 94% of the routes Rob Gronkowski was at 81%. Scotty Miller 75%. Again, this is without Antonio Brown, but I think this reinforces the fact that if we're looking for one guy who really is slated for a big opportunity, it's Tyler Johnson over anyone else with Rob Gronkowski maintaining his role and Antonio Brown stepping into who knows, right? The reports are that he's looking good, but his workload has always been kind of hard to pin down and it's always why I've been a little bit low on Antonio Brown. Even though that costs me sometimes he has played five games this year. He has once surpassed the 58% snap rate and he's maxed out at 64%. So even with snap rates in five games between 45% and 64%, in the games that he's played, he has a 20.3% target share, which ain't bad for something like a full-time player, but he's playing again, like roughly half the snaps a little bit over that. He's averaging 2.2 downfield targets for games with 20 plus air yards there. He's averaging 3.6 air yards per route, which is basically the same number as Marquez bought at Scantling and Tyler Lockett. His target per route rate of 29% is the same as Tyra Kills. If you assume the same role, it's still a good play. If you assume more snaps and more targets, he's a phenomenal play. So I think Antonia Brown just opens up, you know, the salary is not prohibitive. Even if he is just his usual self, it's still a really good role. Tyler Johnson at 5,000, again, his conversation is like the biggest, you know, beneficiary of these absences. Rob Gronkowski's role has been almost like wide receiver one for this team in recent weeks. I love him at 6,700 coming off of a down game, two catchers on 11 targets. So I think we've got three pass catchers in play. And then we have Ronald Jones who played at least 50% of snaps in seven games last year. In those games, he averaged 16.9 Vandal points, 24.9 adjusted opportunities through 18 carries and 3.4 targets and 115.3 yards per game. That's you'll take that. That's that's awesome usage in a good offense still with Antonio Brown coming back. Robert Gronkowski being there. Tyler Johnson is still a good player. So I love Ronald Jones. I'm not going to be alone in that. I know you love Ronald Jones. Everyone's going to love Ronald Jones this week, but it's based in like a very tangible, projectable role change. And we've seen him produce in similar spots last year. Love Robert Gronkowski. Love Antonio Brown. I don't feel like we got to downgrade this offense too much. So am I too high on this offense without Chris Godwin in Mike Evans? Or am I not too high enough? So I have not too high enough. It's a funny anyway. I think that it's fine to downgrade Brady to the point where I'm probably not going to use him. Right. But like the salaries on these guys in a situation with a likely beginning really big volume in a still efficient offense like, no, you're not too high. I think that Jones is the best player on the slate at any position. Any salary range. That's not hot. That's just like we were talking before like we don't have our snake trap this week with JJ Zacharyson, but like if we had a snake draft, we agree that Ronald Jones be the number two pick a running back behind Alvin Cook. That's like how good he'd be without accounting for salary with their with their being no salary. Once you add in his salary 54 just you load him in. He played three games last year without Leonard Fournette. 29 just opportunities per game. 111 rushing yards or yards from scrimmage per game. 42% red zone share. You just you just can't turn that down. I know Jones has his detractors as he should because his role usually stinks, but I don't care right now with with let he out. Doesn't matter. So Jones lock button type guy. I think that Johnson is very, very, very, very, very close to Gabriel Davis is being the top value receiver of the week. You could very easily talk me into Johnson being above Davis if Davis generates a lot of attention as the, you know, the value play given that he's facing the Patriots. Page is pretty tough. So I can see myself pivoting to Johnson if there's a massive rostrate discrepancy between the two. I think a Tony of Brown is in a very good tier still one of the best plays. So like other guys in that range are DK Metcalf prefer Brown or Metcalf by a wide March. Jamar Chase is there. I do like that game quite a bit. And you'll talk about that one later on, but I still think I prefer Brown there prefer over a Hunter Renfro by wide margin from over Thielen. Deontay. I prefer him over Stefan Diggs. I prefer him over Keenan Allen. Like he's he's just staying down in that range and you're going up in salary to not down. Like, yeah. Exactly. Because Brown's in 7000. I was talking about guys who were in the upper 7000. So yeah, I think he's great. I don't and like Gronk is also great. So I I can't really push back. I wish I could, but like I can't honestly. Yeah, I think the thing that I glossed over I kind of had this implied to me is I'm not going to play Tom Brady. I don't think that he's a terrible play by any means, especially if we get again, we talk every now and then about quarterback popularity not really mattering because it's very flat and guys kind of max out at like 15% so the leverage you get there's not really worth chasing too much. But you know, if we get Tom Brady at like very, very low roster percentages, I think that he's still a good, you know, pivot play, but he's not going to make it as a top four play top three play for me for this week. And I'm to the point now where I'm playing three three quarterbacks at most in a given week. I think the other way I'd phrase it is I will probably have two bucks in a lot of lineups because Jones will just be most of them and I'm not going to let that scare me off of Gronk or Brown. So like I'm going to have two in a lot of lineups. I think he's the most likely scenario here. Okay, let's move to the my first trainer and talk about the Atlanta Falcons are facing the Lions, which is kind of the key point here. Their implied total is 24, which is not too bad match but the lines is great. But there are some flaws on this falcon scene. So I want to dig into their recent usage and see what we should do with them here in Detroit. The flaws start with Cordero Patterson. His usage recently has been more similar to a traditional running back than the really fun hybrid player. He was earlier on this year. If we look at the four games with that new role, he's at 78 yards per game. That is down from 92 before he got hurt back in week 10. He still has had upside though. He had 135 yards discrimination. The first game in the stretch. He had 96 in the second, but his floor is really low as we saw the past two weeks. He's still getting red zone work. It's a 40% red zone share in the four game sample. Patterson's salary is $7,200. He has the upside to be a tournament play. Given the matchup, I cannot touch him in cash anymore. I can't consider him there. I was talking about like CEH. I think he's in that range. I prefer Justin Jackson relative to salary over Patterson. Just because the imperfection of Patterson to me are pretty obvious right now. Our two viable guys here are Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts. Gage's role has expanded the past seven games. If we look at that share or that split specifically, Gage has a 26% target share. Does have a 30% deep target share. That's better than it was previously. But his salary is up to $6,700. That is not nothing. It's a very good Ranger receiver this week. Pitts is 59. His target share is 21% of the split. 33% deep target share. Red zone share is 15%, which is not zero. Although perception is zero. I think on Pitts and the red zone right now. He had three red zone targets this past week, 77 total yards. So you talked about it on Monday. I kind of poo pooed it, but I think the Kyle Pitts is in play this week. It's a good matchup. He has yardage juice. His salary is low. I think I like him most of this group. Patterson, rotational play. Gage, I'm souring on the more I think about it, given to how good that tier is, which is weird because it's like the Lions and I should like it more. But like, I just think I think I need to be a bit picky and that leads me to being highest on Pitts on Patterson and on Gage. What about you? So all this boils down to like you kind of like Kyle Pitts, right? Yeah, I'm not like, okay. Yeah. I mean, I think that makes sense. I think he's my favorite player on this team. I like this game a lot before the Jared Goff news. Yeah. Again, I've been talking a little bit more about in-season regression and expectations and stuff. In that sample that you referenced with Russell Gage's workload up, he's overperformed his catch rate by 4.3 percentage points, which sounds low. But if you look at the guys who like maintain five plus, it's the superstar receivers. And I don't know. Russell Gage looked like a superstar receiver last week. He had some phenomenal catches. I'm not sure that he's quite that. And by contrast, Kyle Pitts underperforming by 6.5 points. I don't think that's going to last forever unless Kyle Pitts is just a guy. So and I don't think he's just a guy. I don't think so either. He made like a he almost like stolen interception back for a catch last week. It was just crazy. But you know, he's underperforming his Fandal Points numbers as well. I think that Kyle Pitts is the top play here. He might be the only Falcon I end up playing a substantial amount of because golf's out and I don't think I'm going to play a lot of Lions as a result. Yeah. But the question then becomes how does Kyle Pitts stack up against Mark Andrews and the other stud tight ends? I don't think he's that far off. I just wish that based on the production, the salary was lower, but I get why it's not. Yeah. 15 is a little bit steep, but it's really not like you know, it I'm going to play coppets. I think he's the best play here. I think there's a lot to like with that regression that I've been talking about. So I also don't think I want to go lower than pits at 59. I don't like it's I mean God or like he's been great, but like it's so hard to trust passing game pieces there because if they had their way, they wouldn't throw and like that game on Tuesday or whatever day, I don't know. Tuesday. The reason that they threw is because they kept messing up and like that kept them in a very neutral script. Like what if they get ahead that he could have three targets? So I think pits over Goddard for sure. Pits over Hunter Henry despite Henry playing really well recently pits over Dawson Knox. So I think it's like Andrews Gronk pits as like the top three, the pillar three at tight end this week. Do you agree? Yeah, I might not play any other tight ends than those three, which I usually disperse things out a little bit more at tight end, but yeah, I think those guys make a lot of sense from a market share standpoint, opportunity standpoints and you know, I have the salary. If I go look, I'm gonna I'm gonna say I'm gonna play 100% Ronald Jones and just whatever happens happens. I'm gonna be pretty high on Devin Singletary. I'm warming up more and more to Justin Jackson even with the red zone concerns because the salary is so low. So I'm gonna have the salary to get the Gronk and Andrews plenty. So I might just play those three. Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if I wound up being there. I might have Knox actually. No, I probably shouldn't anyway. Apparently when I froze earlier, I was in a weird pose. The NFT God on Twitter took a picture of it and sent it to me on Twitter. It's not a flattering face. I might make it my Slack profile picture though. So thank you the NFT God for for screenshotting that and saving this beautiful moment in history where I was scratching my nose and trying to make sure my dog was not going to annihilate the tissue. Anyway, let's move on to your second trend talking about the Bengals. I think this game is pretty fun. And I think it's you talked about this being the other game you'd look to stack other than Rams Vikings in a traditional sense. I kind of agree. So talk me through this Bengals offense, why you like them, what you're viewing in this game. Yes. So the specific trend name I have is the Bengals against bottom tier past defenses with low pressure rates, which is very specific, but it it kind of fits because the splits for the Bengals have been really like separate like separated like their matchups have been either really tough or really good. And some of those good match or one of those good matchups came against a really high pressure a team and like if you take that out things get a lot better put a lot long story short. The Bengals are massive dependent and that's okay if we have the right matchups. I'm in three games against top 12 past defenses. Joe Burrows averaged 15.9 Fandal points in five games against mid tier past defenses. So cutting off the top 12 bottom 12 16.4 in six games against bottom 12 past defenses 18.9. And if you cut out that one game against the high pressure rate team that was also in the bottom 12 and adjusted past defense on 20 and a half Fandal points per game 300 passing yards per game 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. And funny enough all those games that fit the the low pressure rates bad past defense you know mold those were all week eight or earlier. So it's been a while since we've had Joe Burrow in this offense in a good matchup one that they can exploit that fits with the Ravens this week for 20th and pressure rate 23rd and adjusted past defense based on number fires metrics. And I like that despite this being a second time around divisional matchup you know again it's just been a while since we've seen Joe Burrow at his best and I think we get it this week Baltimore's 26th and passing a dot allowed average depth of target 21st in yards per target allowed on downfield attempts so they don't really limit downfield throws they're also not efficient at stopping downfield throws are about 21st is not an outlier it's close enough to league average but it's the point is they're not good at that and that's what we should take advantage of since a week 10 by T Higgins does have a team high 24 percent target share 39 percent backyard share Jamar chase down to 20 percent of targets Tyler Boyd's up to 19.3 percent CGO Zama actually 15 percent target share which is solid for a tight end in a spot that is you know not that bad. Now we've really seen Chase fall down the ladder and Higgins be much more efficient on higher volume despite Chase running more routes 97 percent to 90 percent for Higgins and 89 percent for Boyd but Chase has a 38 percent red zone target share and a 67 percent end red zone target share in this sample. Chase is barely over performed his catch rate. I think it's safe to say that he's good enough to do that long term. So that's kind of a regression spot for Chase with the red zone usage touchdowns could be coming. I know he went off against the Ravens for over 200 yards. I think that this is like just a bounce back spot for Chase while it's a lot easier to justify playing T Higgins. I think Jamar Chase is the better tournament play. T Higgins rating us the better sort of cash gameplay. You know with Joe Mixon he's played on 67 percent of snaps in this span. The works the workload has been good. He's probably feeling good according to head coach Zach Taylor. If we get word that Joe Mixon is like a full go I'm pretty into that but I don't think that I'm going to get there with the running backs being what they are. More importantly I'm in on Joe Burrow whose salary is only 7100 that's super low because he's played a ton of tough defenses lately and hasn't performed John Chase 71 T Higgins 65. I'm going to play a lot of those guys and then we can bring it back with the Mark Andrews Mark East Brown. So am I stupid to jump back in on the Bengals or is there enough to like here. No I love it. I think the key thing for me in addition to what you mentioned is that the Ravens are really good against the rush and that may encourage Zach Taylor to be less run heavy than he has been recently and that could have been because of matchups. I don't want to like this much him and like another NFT coming this. Oh maybe I don't know. I think that because the Ravens are good against the rush and not that good against the pass. I feel like that may encourage them to throw more and that makes you feel better about this Bengals offense. So that's me means with me. I think the Bengals are a pretty clear priority and a team that I feel very good about. Yeah. I think I'm going to have a lot of Bengals and I'm going to kind of like to see what happens. I wish I had more reason to save or to like need salary or running back but look even with value at running back I still want to play doubt and cook. I don't want to make that like I don't want to lose that in the grand scheme of things. Cooper Cup salary we can get to but if you want Cooper Cup stack with Justin Jefferson that's difficult. So Joe Burrow is going to go a long way for me. Especially if we run it then back with like Mark East Brown his salaries justifiable. So you know this is just that I think the second best game to stack despite the fact that you know we have multiple value pieces from Buffalo like I'm not going to play the Patriots like that's not a game stack. This could potentially be a two QB game which we don't have a whole lot of so I'm in on this game is the number two behind the Rams of Vikings. I think Jim's out again. All right. It's just me. So I can't really transition into the next trend because that's Jim's trend. I see Jim's message in me. All right. Okay. So we're back. All right. I was about I was about to launch into some stuff. So you're I'm glad you're back. I have no idea what you were talking about. So let's talk about my second trend. Talk about the bills versus tough defenses because we're going to want some bills in our lives this week but they're facing the Patriots. That's a really tough matchup. They are ranked second in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. So I want to dig in and see how the offense has fared in similar spots this year. They've had nine games versus teams ranked in the top half of the league in schedule adjusted defense in those games the bills have ever 27.2 points per game. It's a very good number. They scored 26 or more points in all but two of those nine games. Josh Allen's passing that expected points per dropback in those games is 0.16. The average now is down to 0.09 which is upsetting. So Allen has been good. They scored points. Those are the key things that matter for us in terms of value plays. The Patriots are a little bit better than just top half defense. So let's narrow it down to the top 10 defenses bills that face those defenses four times and in those games they've scored at least 27 points three out of four times. The one game they didn't get to 27 was that win game against the Patriots. So you know it was against this very same defense but obviously a very interesting unique situation there. Allen's passing that expected points per dropback in those games does slip a bit down to 0.10. So they're scoring points to the most part. Allen not the most efficient. I can live with that when I'm looking for value here and that that is the key focus me with the bills is the value plays. I just need the offense to be solid and the numbers say I can believe the bills will do that this weekend. So I'm not going to sweat it too much with Devon Singletary and Gabriel Davis. I'm inclined to use both these guys here. I think Davis grades out below Singletary for me. I'd like to use the value backs in order to spend up at receiver. I think that's the way I want to play things this week. That's the key differentiator between Davis and Singletary or is that I just prefer to spend down at back versus receiver. What about for you? What's your confidence in the bills? How you view in this one? Not a ton of like overall confidence, but it's enough because the only place I'm really interested in are Davis and Singletary. I'm not really there with Stefan Diggs at this point. Yeah, the market share is just not good enough to justify the salary and even the upside from him is kind of muted because there's just not he's not getting funneled targets like he has been in the past. So it really comes down to Davis and Singletary. And then for me, yeah, I'm with you. Like I'd rather save salary or running back, which is like not what we typically do. Right. But in this week, we don't have multiple superstar running backs. We have one most likely with Devon Cook and we can replace a lot of the the Cordero Patterson, you know, DeAndre Swift type rolls with lower salary backs, which we cannot usually do early on in the season. So that's the key difference. And with receivers really kind of separating, you know, even in the 6,000 range. It's a week where I want to prioritize the value backs and that's what gets me on Singletary. I don't think I want to play Josh Allen at all and I don't feel too concerned there. No, so it really comes down to like do I feel good enough for Singletary and Davis and I do. Yeah, that's where I'm at too. It's the same thing with Diggs as well. We're not really looking to get there. So I think that it is just about those value guys and I've seen enough from this offense feel good about them in this spot. So Singletary in the top three or four running back for this week considering salary. Davis arguably the best value receiver alongside Tyler Johnson, but I would just prefer to be there less often than I am with the running backs. Okay. And you don't care if Emmanuel Sanders comes back. That doesn't really affect your view on Davis. I think he was going to get benched for Davis had he not gotten hurt. So we talked about that going to that week. Not to you know, but you know, we talked about that. So I think he's fine. Weather for this week. There are some spots to note starting off with that Pat's Bills game. There's a chance of rain there. Winds are at 12 miles per hour. Nothing of concern right now, but I would check back on that one later on Sunday. Winds are at 18 miles per hour in New Jersey for the Jets and the Jags ruining all of your plentiful game stacks there. Winds are at 17 miles per hour in Philadelphia for the Eagles and the Giants. Again, big passing game options for the Eagles and the Giants. So, you know, massive implications. 11 mile per hour wins in Seattle for the Seahawks and the Bears. Nothing too concerning there. And winds are at 16 miles per hour in Kansas City for the Chiefs and the Steelers. That would help justify my being lower on them. So I kind of hope that win sticks. That would be a quite helpful to work. You hang around this charity. What did I say? My being lower. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I always get like weirded out by that one because like no one says that. And so I feel weird when I do it because it's like they'll think that I'm wrong. And I'm like always concerned about that. Yeah. But you would say like, well, I won't. The examples that came to my my my playing too much Chris Conley is an issue. Same thing. You wouldn't say, well, some people may be playing. Be playing Chris Conley. Anyway, let's go to the positional place. Let's end this for sake and podcast. This is a bit of a train wreck. The cursed podcast. Welcome to week 16. I'm going to go to quarterback what you got there. All right. I'm going to go Justin Herbert 84. I just sometimes it comes down to the best matchups and everything. Sometimes it comes down to like, I'm going to play a really good player in a spot where his team needs to win coming in off extra rest. But they also get a good matchup. Bottom 10 adjusted past defense Herbert in those spots on 270 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns 0.09 passing net expected points per drop back over expectation overall has been twice the league average in that span. So he takes advantage of these matchups. Just feels like a really narrow path to busting. I know I said that last week again with Kyler, but I can I won't regret playing a lot of Justin Herbert in this spot. So yeah, I don't regret playing Kyler last week. It's in Herbert here. Yeah, I agree. And then I also love Joe Burrow. He opens up a lot. Really hopes you get to Cooper Cup. I just want to make sure that not all of my Joe Burrow is tied to Cooper Cup, although Cooper Cup feels like he's just locked in for I've had I've had lineups tied to worse stuff. So yes, really think there's a path to a big game as I laid out in this specific type of matchup, which we just haven't had for the Bengals for quite some time. You know, it's just been a lot of tough tougher matchups for Burrow. I don't think that the hand issues that much of a problem anymore. He looked pretty mobile to last week just didn't get you know, take advantage of that that matchup and he pairs well with his receivers at good salaries. So I'm good there and you shouldn't face a whole lot of pressure, which again is a big part for Joe Burrow in this offense. Yeah, I also burrows one of my loves because again the Ravens being run heavy or being good against a run may force the Bengals to be more past heavy here and I think that's a positive for them. And again, they've shown at times this year they will be past heavy when the situation dictates they should be. So I think that gives me faith here in $7,100 in feeling high on burrow. I don't need to spend down at quarterback given the number of running backs we have that are low salary. But if using burrow allows me to go with like T. Higgins, Mark Andrews, Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson, something like that sick like signed up every time. Yeah, if you play the Jones Jackson single Terry 3,900 defense burrow, you got your three receivers in a tight end and you get 8100 left. Sick. Let's do it. Let's party. That's fun. I just figured out a lot of my head using that but I feel pretty good about it. Okay. Other quarterback I had was Matthew Stafford. It's a very traditional game stack where it's a high total, a tight spread. It is indoors. Stafford hasn't topped 30 Fandal points yet this year but he's shown the building blocks necessary to get there. The Rams ranked second on the slate in projected efficiency for me behind the Chargers. So I think Herbert Stafford burrow the core three for me this week and then Jalen Hurts. I gave some decent thought to putting as a as a player pick for this week didn't quite get there but he is probably going to be at least a limited feature my player pool on Sunday, but he would be the fourth option there. We're we're not that far behind like time wise. If people ask why we're low in Jalen Hurts or like low ish not to have him like as. He's dependent on several things breaking his way like touchdown variance breaking his way which is true for everyone but I think it's more true for him than others. Yeah for a guy who's he had 296 yards in week 15 but before that 129 147 178 162 103 like and he did that against the team that was missing like the all their starters on the covid list. Yeah, but it did it on 24 pass attempt. So it's basically like a Russell Wilson passing performance with like 11.4 yards per attempt with also two rushing touchdowns which like he obviously the multiple touch rushing touchdowns in the range of outcomes for him but without that he's a different performer and I don't really want to tie myself. I don't want to have to assume multiple rushing touchdowns for a team that just doesn't want to throw the ball. I agree. So he'll be fourth for me but that's why he's not higher. So let's go to running back. What do you have there? I'm going to go with d'alve. I will still play him a lot. I'm not going to play three value backs in every lineup but he is the guy who can really regret make us regret not using him. I think honestly, Ronald Jones is like in that conversation just in terms of high end Fandall point outcome. Yeah, but Dalvin 28 carries last week 89 yards three targets for two four red zone carries managed just about 10 Fandall points despite my model saying he should have had 23.4 if he was doing that I think we'd feel a little bit differently. If he did that last week we'd feel a little bit differently about him coming in. Just could be the lone guy and then of course Devin Singletary and Ronald Jones and my other guys Singletary 83 92% of the snaps the past two games good enough workload 13 carries four targets 93 yards per game getting red zone work you know New England is not a great match up to target but I still think that the offense is good enough to move the ball as you laid out and then Ronald Jones just has been awesome whenever he's been a featured back. It's actually been a little bit better efficiency wise than Leonard Fournette this year and last year. How dare you. I know we love Lenny but like that's not we can be pro rojo without besmirching our fearless leader Leonard Fournette. Yes this was less a shot at Leonard Fournette and more a vote of confidence for Ronald Jones to do something with it tread lightly. So I say play off Ronnie. No. Full exposure Ronnie will go that I have him as my love as well I just like again the numbers of that for that last year were stupid 42% red zone share 111 yards from scrimmage just a lot of carries 4.3 targets per game. Geo is on IR which means it's basically just rojo and key Sean Vaughn. I don't expect Levy on to play a big role shockingly so rojo is one of the best running back plays we've had all year. Davin Cook is my first love as well. He was yours. He's the one true feature back here. Feckler can't go. He's at 120 70 yards from scrimmage per game is full games this year 46% red zone share high total tight spread all the salary to get there so I will do so the one unique one I had compared to you with Sony Michelle. I think that his workload on Monday was good enough to give me confidence that he or Sir Tuesday Tuesday was good enough to give me confidence that he will be good enough to be worth his salary at $6,900. He had 150 yards and scrimmage three out of four red zone chances. I'll go back there and there is some risk that Henderson's role could expand but like I think they just like Sony more. So I'll go there. I think that if I like for single entry for people probably going to go single Terry Jones maybe Dalvin I want to get Sony in there potentially to be a little bit different. I could see him go overlooking that kind of format because he's in the middle kind of in purgatory there. I like it and honestly based at this point in the week with the information we have 1115 a.m. Eastern on Thursday December the 23rd. I think I'm maxing out of five running backs with Dalvin Sony, Ronald Jones, single Terry and Justin Jackson. I don't know if I'll play another running back. Um, I'll play James Robinson. We actually have been talked about him. He's facing the Jets. I know the salary is high. I know the team is bad, but it's the Jets. 85% snap rates, 52% red zone share and games that hide. So I know there are issues. I'm going to use him. I know we've not talked about him, but I will use him. I just need to rank him below Dalvin. Got to rank him below Jones. I'll rank him below Sony, but I think he's right there with like single Terry in them. This feels like an anti gym take like a like a gym 2.0 sort of take, I guess is. Wait, why? Because the salary is high. I know that doesn't matter as much this week, but the implied team total is low. The offensive expectations are super low. Are they? They're facing the Jets 21.25. It's not good. I mean, it's not bad in they rank 16th for the entire week and projected offensive efficiency. If you're getting a featured back to rank 16th for the entire week and one kind of game teams that are not in the main slate that are headed. Well, I guess look in your defense 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 of the teams there are 11th on the main slate and projected offensive efficiency, nothing wrong with that. So average, but I guess like somehow the Vikings have an implied team total of 23.25. So yeah, I'm going to use Robinson. I will have him below Dalvin. I'll have him below Rojo. I think he's on power Sony. Yeah, I think he's worth it. I think he's worth it. Six guys then, but that's it. Cutting it off there. You will not talk to me to anyone else. Let's go to receiver. That's not even a bit. I really don't think that I would know. I got you. Go ahead. I was considering Jamar Chase here, but I'm going to go in Tonya Brown. He is just whether the results are there or not. The situation is fantastic. It's 7,000 plenty of upside in the role and even if the role doesn't expand, we're looking at 20 ish percent target share. I think that has to go up like just being realistic. Report to that. He's good to go. He's looking healthy has some time to recover. I guess even if he's still got the tag, but seems good to go. I laid it out already and Tonya Brown at 7,000 and I'll play him with Ronald Jones. I don't care. Like you said, second level is Mike Williams at 6600. I don't think I'm going to lay off the Chargers much at all this week. His role has been getting better with 2020 and 24 percent target shares the past three games since 24th and adjusted Fandall points per target allowed to receivers might prefer T Higgins. But either way, both are guys I'm going to play a lot of and then Gabriel Davis 5300. Don't really care because if Emmanuel Sanders returns Colby's lease out, you know, Davis had a team high 92 percent route rate with seven targets 85 yards to touchdowns 130 air yards to deep targets to red zone targets. That's awesome usage. The, you know, the matchup's not fantastic, but 5300 is. Yep. I think that he is either one or two, probably one. But like if if he wants a being if there's a massive roster rate discrepancy, then I'll go Tyler Johnson who is my third love. So start there. Talk about him. I think that like I will let roster rate decide where I go here because both these guys have passed a failure and I'm OK letting popularity play a role in my decision making process there. Johnson was getting snaps even when other guys were healthy and it wasn't just that's like a jail and guidance type thing. He was getting some targets too. He has six plus targets in three games this year. He had seven against the Saints last week has eight out of 7.7. It's not huge, but it's high enough. So I will take that for sure and be OK with Johnson. Probably prefer Davis by a bit because all the high leverage work, but I would go Johnson if the roster rates were massively different. My first-level receiver is Cooper Cup. I can get to him via the value at running back. He has a 36% target sharing games with Odell Beckham this year. Her games are Odell's been a full. The first game doesn't count. He has 44% the red zone targets those games. He's very doable. It's a great game to stack. So I want to get to Cooper Cup. My second love is T Higgins. If we look for week five on so since he returned from shoulder injury, he has 24% of the overall targets, 32% of the deep targets, 20% in the red zone is at 100 plus yards and three of the past four games facing a super beat up secondary. You said you might prefer Higgins over Mike Will. I have a really hard time deciding. I think they're both phenomenal. And that's why I talk myself out of Metcalf at 67. I think that the it's a lot easier to talk myself into these guys versus him. I think Brown's better than both by a bit. Right. Brown Antonio Brown over Mike Williams Higgins. Yeah, I think I think Antonio Brown is. Yeah, like on the same plane. If you account for salary is Cooper Cup. That's fair. I can't push back. I just I don't I can't really wrap my head around a spot where Antonio Brown's role is the same and he's playing like half the snaps unless he really is hurt, but that doesn't seem like that's the case. So yeah, I'm pretty in on Brown. I'm at that salary. Okay, let's go to tight end. What you got there? I'm going to stick with the box here and go with Rob Gronkowski. I think that, you know, his role has been very good overall this season. Again, that should expand or at least stay the same and I'm cool with that. Like look, it's Gronk 67 with a great role coming off of a down week. So to 11 targets to catches catch rate over expectation of 43.6 percentage points below expectation should have had about 14 and a half final points. Yeah, I know is it without I've learned quickly that one week catch rate over expectation numbers are crazy high and that's why when I tried to figure out where big games from receivers come from it's really impossible. It's just basically who converts on the targets and who doesn't like really what it comes down to and since the week 11 return 26.3% target per route rate again. Tyreek Hill is like 29%. League leaders are like 31%. It's a really good role for him on my second love was going to be Dallas Goddard. I got it. I got to take your guy to Kyle Pitts. It's just we talked about it. The role is good and the one of the reasons I was a little bit slow to talk about Gronk was I was running my regression numbers because I was just curious as to what how many touchdowns he should have. He has one. He should have 6.2 according to my data. Something's got to give the red zone work has been there. I don't think it's crazy to think there's like a multi touchdown game coming for Kyle Pitts soon. I wouldn't be shocked. This is a week given that like relative to what a usual Atlanta implied total is this one's very high and like part of the reason he hasn't scored touchdowns because they haven't scored like. Yeah. That quarter pattern touchdown being called back last week was a backbreaker for me. So, you know, they're just a bad offense, but they should be less bad this week given the matchup. So that's why I like pits 77 yards last week. He said 6 plus targets and all but two games this year. So if I'm not going to get to Andrews or Gronk, I think that the best route here is going to pits at $5900 allowing myself to go nuts everywhere else. I do want to get to mark Andrews a lot though. He is my other love at tight end just a stupid role right now. He has double digit targets in five of the past seven games. He has had at least eight targets in each of the other two. So eight plus and seven straight. He has a 27% target share and gains with Marquis Brown since the bi-week. He has a 30% tart. What are you trying to get? Okay. She's on the counter. Sorry. He has a 30% counter. She was she had her paws up there. She's being okay. Yeah. No, she's very she's too tall for row good. He has a 30% deep target share with a 27% share in the red zone. I'm going to take that every time. He's a cyborg. So sign me up for Mark Andrews in a really good game to stack. Let's finish up with defense. What you going to there with the Falcons at 38 I like the game from a I like the game more. But you know if there's going to be some back and forth some potentially good and bad offensive plays you like that for defenses sacks and turnovers the defandal points and they're getting either Jared Goff on like a short week or Tim Boyle, which I'll take you made it sound as if like Jared Goff is a good thing for an opposing defense. How dare you? Again, we don't per smurter a boy who has a point to owe passing that expected points per drop back. Since Josh Reynolds joined the team Brandon, but he won't have a week of golf needs five minutes. We're good. We're good. We're good. Are you going to play them then? If he plays. Oh, my love of defense is the Raiders. They're facing drew lock. That's the analysis. That's all I really need to say. So they were the 3900 defense I've referenced a few times throughout the show. Yeah, I mean like I think you just go Raiders. If it's Boyle go Falcons. I think you just make it very easy on yourself. Like obviously there are other options we could like. I think since Nattieson play at $3,500 based in the Ravens in situations where I don't get to the Ravens, just because like they can produce some turnovers for sure. I'm okay with that. I'm okay with the Broncos defense against the Raiders because the Raiders are also not great at themselves. Fine with that. Otherwise, you know, looking at other stuff, but I think that for for defense this week, we can pretty safely stay below $4,000 and not fret too much about it. Yeah, for sure. Alrighty, so that wraps up our positional place and this week 16 preview podcast before we close up shop the brand and any final words for you for the good listeners before they fill out their lineups this week. The thing that really jumped up to me is rank at salary the running backs to see how how high or low Daven Cook is for you relative to like a Justin Jackson. It sounds really fun to play Justin Jackson so you can play Cooper Cup, but like if that comes to the expense of playing Zero Daven Cook, then you know, maybe think about that. Do the two v twos that I typically talk about and go from there. Yeah, and be picky. And I think that that's kind of what you're talking about Jackson, you know, because of the the red zone stuff. Think about the paths to failure for different guys. And if you don't see a lot of paths of failure sick, but if you see paths of failure ask yourself what are the odds those paths hit and then decide based on that. That is all that we have here for today. We will have a recap podcast coming your way on Monday. That'd be at 9am Eastern. Same place. Same time as usual on the Fandil YouTube page up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. You know, for that our final recap podcast of the year because no point in recapping week 17, leading week 18. So final recap podcast of the year coming up on Monday. Make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts to get that podcast right as it goes live. Also Tom Vecchio talking NBA and NHL DFS. We got USC PGA coming back. Of course, a lot of good stuff here. Hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at Goodwill 13 GDULA13. And I'm at Jim Sonnis. J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandil podcast network at Fandil Podcast. Big thank you to everyone tuning in for this week. Happy holidays. Stay safe. Stay healthy. What? You keep freezing. What are you laughing about? It would have been perfect. As soon as I finished, you froze and I was like, this is going to be a perfect way to end the show if you freeze it once more on the side out. See, you didn't freeze for me. So the podcast listeners weren't going to know because I was going to clip all the other froze. I'm sorry. There was a delay. All right. Well, we're going to find. This is why I can't host the show. I think I do need to change that. That freeze frozen screen grab that the NFT person if he got got and make that my avatar will work on it. I'm like wiping my nose. It's like it's a train wreck. This has been a train wreck week. We're going to close up shop and say goodbye to all of you right now. Good luck to you with your week 16 lineups. Hopefully goes better than this podcast. Did we'll talk to you all once again next week. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire. Yeah.