 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 7th of January 2019 and the time has just gone 935 GMT We've had a fairly quiet start to the session this week in Asia overnight Eight most Asians rack markets finished a little bit higher just on the on the back of the announcement that Chinese and US Trade negotiators are to actually hold trade talks between today and tomorrow now There's been nobody can update or progress on that front But it's the very announcement of them back in the last week at the trade talks We take place on the 7th and 8th of January Lift has lifted our investment a better sentiment So we finish a little bit higher in Asia overnight. We started positive positive Here in Europe this morning, but equity markets in Europe have turned over a turnover on themselves again Bearing in mind. We did have a very strong finish to a fairly volatile week last week Looking back at Friday's moves with between a very very Positive jobs update from the United States and also some less hawkers Some could even say slightly kind of more neutral comments From Jerome Powell the head of the Federal Reserve that helped equity markets I finish in quite a high note. This reminds you the jobs data came in well above in The non-framed payrolls figure headline figure came in well above expectations 212,000 versus a 177,000 that were expected on the year-on-year basis average earnings came in at 3.2 percent It's joint highest in it in a decade That's probably the most important figure of the actual update Given that when US workers earn earn more they tend to spend more and so we can underline the strength of the US economy And on Friday afternoon, we're from Jerome Powell who stated that the the Federal Reserve We're gonna be a bit patient when it comes to their planning their monetary policy and also he stated about their policy is Flexible so this is a bit of a backtrack In comparison we've heard in recent weeks and months or by the Federal Reserve previously You seem to be kind of gung-ho on kind of moving forward with Titling their titling monetary policy kind of even though they were kind of predicting a decline in growth and inflation in 2019 so that backtrack or that kind of move from slightly being less hawk used to get more and slightly more neutral The LFA directly markets on top of that It's a fairly quiet day today in terms of actual economic and corporate announcements So take a look now at some of the major markets as you the moods are going on Starting off with the with the FTSE 100 as as you can see here the FTSE 100 Since may has been a classic example of a downward trend nice series of lower lows and lower highs But we are well off the lows of late December We can see here that since around late December the market has been as has been moving higher We see we can see a nice to increase in positive momentum here on the back to indicator back to Instagram So the market is edging higher and I could put it like I said The FTSE open hard and hard this morning has turned over on itself. So this upward move that we're seeing here today We may may turn over on itself or make a little higher before we potentially look to kind of fall into the wider downward trend because keep Mind it's been a fairly obvious downward trend for a number of months now If you do look to push a higher from here We could be looking at targeting this blue line here the fifthly moving average, which could which could just come into play at 6,921 Notice how it managed to active resistance here in December and also in September and if a metric has actually had resistance in the past or support It makes it more likely that it will dose will do so in the future There's no guarantees, but it's possibility and a move beyond that could then bring the psychological important 7,000 mark into play Even if you do go to 7,000 the market still could look to turn over on itself because bearing in mind It's been a fairly obvious dowel trend for a number of months if the market does turn over on itself in the near term We could be looking any back down towards the 6,750 region this area here and a move below that would then bring the most recent low of 6,536 into play and if you go below that we'd be potentially looking heading back towards this region here in around the 6,435 Taking a look now what's going on over in Germany in the decks Once again, a classic example of a dowel trend has been a fairly aggressive dowel trend since about June, but this candle here Major move to the upside on Friday could be construed as a bearish Sorry a bullish a bullish engulfed. So this bit this jolt higher here could signal We are looking for a bit of a rebound in the near term And if you do look to push on higher from here, we could be looking at our including the 11,000 mark It's a big psychological number, but you notice notice you also notice how just north of 11,000 and in November and also in October Just north of it that region did act as support. So we could see a scenario where all support might become new resistance If you measure press on above The 11,000 mark resistance may come into play at this blue line here. They fit the moving average at 11,117 When the market rallied in early December, I didn't quite get there But I did manage active resistance and number of occasions back in September. So keep an eye out for that metric If the market those turnover on south yet again, we could be looking heading back down towards this this month The December low of 10,277 and if you go below that we could be looking heading up down towards the next big cycle It's a number of 10,000 The US markets are in better shape They're not an amazing shape, but they're in better shape than their European counterparts. So starting off with the Dow Jones As we can see here. It's had a fairly aggressive push higher Since late December and the market has been edging higher and even this morning the Dow futures managed to go take out Well, the very recent high so we are continuing on to edge higher If you do look to press on higher from here, we could be looking at in targeting the 24,000 region or perhaps up up to the 50 moving average 24,484 and if you go beyond that, we could be looking at targeting this trend at this trend line here That's trend line which connects the lows of February 2006 February 2018 of the lows of March April I noticed how it acted as support on a number of occasions a few months ago. So all support might become new resistance That's not to say that the US market couldn't rally couldn't rally in the near term before potentially Turning lower again. If the market does manage to turn over on itself We could be looking any back down towards 23,000 Below that next big year to keep an eye for it will be the will be the the late or sorry the early the early January low this is this area here 22,587 and a move below that brings back down to potentially to 22,000 then below that We will potentially retesting December lows It's a reasonably similar situation with the S&P 500 So if we starting off you take the old trend line from the lows of February 2016 to the lows of November 2016 we get this trend line here Which as you can see was respected as well on number of occasions in October and also in November October November, but as you can see the market at a firm break below it in December I mean but since late December has managed to stage a fairly decent comeback and similar situation with the Dow Jones The market's moving higher so we and we can see an increase in positive momentum on the MACD indicator in the MACD Instagram if the market does move the push on higher we could be looking heading up towards 26,000 or perhaps the 50 moving average Sorry, I said 26,000 I meant to say 2,600 We could look we could look to 300 resistance at this blue line here 2,640 Which also nearly coincides with the previous trend line support So that that trend line may become resistance in the near term if the market does manage to turn over on itself again We could look at finding support in one of the 2,500 area 2,500 or 2,400 and then below move below that would bring in the most recent low of 2,319 into play So we've been talking a lot about markets that have been going down. Let's talk about a rocket that's been going up recently gold we can see here Gold has basically had a slow and steady recovery from from say mid-april through say October and then ever since kind of about early november the gold markets has really started to kind of take off My series of higher highs and higher lows It's shied away from the 1,300 marks on friday partially because of the strong job job support and particular The earnings component. So it's been recently There's been a fairly strong interest relationship to the gold market and the us dollar In light of mr. Powell's comments a couple of hours and nearly two hours after non-famperial support The us dollar itself and And which assisted the gold market if you do let the push on higher from here We could be looking at targeting 1,300 and if you go beyond that an extra to keep an eye for will be the the mid may high Of 1,326 if the market does turn over on itself, we may find some support in around the 1,275 region or 265 region here or perhaps even down as low as 1,250 Take a look at what's going on in the oil market start off the branch I'm intentionally starting off with Brent on the weekly can on the weekly chair So you can take a look take a look at this candle here. So The oil market had a very aggressive sell-off between October and mid-december or mid-late December. We can see here at this candle here Could be destroyed as a bullish engulfing So we could be looking at having a push higher in the near term bounce back from here I'll take a look now on the daily chart. You can see just to get a better view. It's basically effectively Essentially bounced off of support at the $50 mark. Maybe just below that 42 49 spot 92 If you do let the push on higher from here, we could be looking heading towards the 60 dollar mark and if you go beyond 60, we could be looking at it towards 63 spot 35 But we can't ignore the wider dowel trend after the wider dowel trend does continue We could be looking heading back down towards the 50 region or if you have an aggressive move below that We could be looking heading back down towards 44 spot 26 I'll take a look now at WTI and to be fair. It's a fairly similar situation in the markets Very well correlated similar move here. We've seen on WTI. We're by aggressive sell-off between early October and mid-december This candle here notice Notice how there's a very long wick on this candle here is an indication of indecision followed by A very positive and very very bullish candle here once you get a very good very bullish candle here Which would indicate we could see A correction a bounce back the market does manage to push and hire from here We could be looking heading up towards the 50 dollars region on WTI Take a look now on the weekly chart If we if we do manage to kind of push on hire from here, we could be looking at dragging 50 bucks Beyond that we could be looking at towards the late November highs of in around the 54 spot 14 But once again The wider aggressive dowel trend can't be ignored if the market does turn over itself You could be like heading heading back down towards 41 spots 41 spot 74 I'll take a look now a couple of currency pairs So as I mentioned, we have a bit of weakness in the u.s. Dollar on the back of mr. Powell's comments, so The euro dollar has been in a broadly speaking a dowel trend for a number of months But in the recent sessions, we have seen a bit of a move to the upside It isn't really going to be aggressively move to the upside a whole lot But it's nonetheless in the very near term We could see the market head up towards the kind of 115 115 10 region and a move beyond that by bringing the kind of 116 area into play If the markets the wider trend if the wider downward trend does continue We could be looking any back down towards 113 or perhaps even low As the recent lows a lot one spot 1216 I'll take a look now at pound versus the u.s. Dollar pound dollar is in a similar situation whereby probably speaking the trend has been very much of the downside particularly since I say Since early November But once again the softness in the u.s. Dollar has given the pound a bit of an assistant recently The pound is creeping higher Since early december if you look to take out one spot 2815 we could be looking any up towards the 130 region But if the wider downward trend kicks in or even if there's an uncertainty in relation to brexit kicks in As is it's likely that that the british parliament will vote on treason may deal next week If there's any negative news around that or the sign that we're heading towards a no deal of brexit be it on purpose or accidental I think we could see further weakness in the pound Let's go take us back down towards the recent well the recent lows of one spot 24 31 Taking a quick look at the what's going on We can expect this week on the week ahead the week ahead article can be found on a website cmcmarkets.com the news and analysis section Since scroll down here tomorrow between tuesday and friday of this week. We've been quite a few UK retailers updating updating us with our christmas statements or third or quarterly numbers Seventh and from marketing sponsors morrisons sainsbury's test goes a good view of the big big supermarkets The card company a o world and mother care. They don't produce numbers on wednesday We will have enough. We love the bed minutes from the meeting in december But keep in mind we did here. We have her recently from Jerome Powell Who's who's who's most recent comments have been a bit less hawkish than the mid and the statement that was released in mid december On wednesday We've been updated the bank of canada keep my bank canada often like to kind of stay a couple of paces behind the fed reserve Seeing as the fed hiked in december four hikes for the fed in 2018 We could see the bank of canada just a way of actually kind of keeping better kind of catch up We could see the fed you could see the bank canada hike on wednesday And then on wednesday We also have third quarter numbers from bed bath and beyond once you're gonna ties in with the kind of wider retail sector The us housing market has been slowing down. So we could see people We'd be willing to kind of spend less on kind of big ticket items And on friday we have us inflation figures, which should be a good measure of demand in the us in particular in light Of the very good Earnings figures you've seen from the us only last friday and as I said when us workers earn more they tend to spend more If you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at cmc markets Please feel free to leave review on google reviews. And that's all for me this week. Thank you very much