 Okay, very good morning to everyone Friday 25th of October. I hope you are well also a quick shout out to Kurt Although it was for Sam Giving you some love here For the big game coming up this weekend Depending on the outcome Sam and I will wear the the the respective top of the champion when it comes to It's a Monday morning, but back back to markets not actually too much for me to talk about at the moment in regard to Actual macro developments. There's been very little updates on the usual things like Brexit Also, there's few comments that came out of the vice president Mike Pence yesterday that I think they're just worth being aware of So very much a reflection really across the charts of what we're seeing this morning. The Dixie is pretty flat So quite quiet and the currency pairs Likewise in the equity index futures, you can see in the center chart here I've got a an ellipse around quite a significant downturn that we saw in the Nasdaq futures after the close last night And that came after Amazon's earnings So we'll have a quick look at that as well But in a nutshell their earnings drop year over year for the first time since early 2017 Fixed income futures Basically flat and oil just Kind of gravitating around that pivot level at the moment in the futures market at around the $56 handle So I'll leave the charts for for Sam and I'll go straight into obviously the ongoing Situation that is Brexit and where are we at the moment Because what we've had last night is Boris Johnson has think now for the third time called for an election But in terms of timing it's quite interesting because he's looking to hold a December election Which would be the first time since 1923 If it does in fact go ahead at that particular time in the calendar and last time that did happen Back in 1923. It was a hung parliament now Couple things just to get you up to speed in terms of political parties traditionally They tend to avoid winter votes Pretty much a standard thing because of the weather conditions It's very hard to can for support after dark and they have to get out You know to people in the cold and the rain in the polling station day So it's very It can be a bit lackluster in terms of the actual participation rate and therefore also the build-up as well Trying to cultivate support in your campaigning period, which is part of a preset period of time that we have for any general election another thing as well That one I saw a journalist from the spectator was saying which I thought was quite interesting He said he thinks one of the attractions of a December 12th date for the Tories is that universities will be on holiday Tory folklore has it that Theresa May's decision to have an election during term time cost her Tory seats such as Canterbury the point being here is that university students if they are registered to vote are usually registered in their University town And so what this date of December 12th is trying to do is if they're on holiday Then they're not actually able to vote because most university students are not from the town of which they Actually living in terms of home. So that could be another tactical move as well What's happened though on the back of this? What are the opposition party saying because as we know you need two-thirds a majority of parliament to support you In order to get an election underway and Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn Said yesterday that his decision on backing the Prime Minister's bid for an election Depends on the length of extension that is granted from the European Union And this is what we've been waiting ever since those letters got sent To Brussels earlier this week From Boris Johnson as part of then the exercising of that Ben Bill now That kind of following this chain through what are the EU saying or EU diplomats? They are meeting this morning. So definitely I think there could be some Tweets some source comments So keeping on the regular journalists as well to be breaking a couple of headlines, but in all reality What Europe have been saying Is that they want more clarity from the UK before agreeing to any type of extension? What they don't want to do is be seen to be picking a side by either at the moment Obviously a lot of the opposition parties want a delayed protracted long extension because they feel that would take some power away from Boris Johnson Boris Johnson ideally would like a November 15th If it if it was an ideal case a few days ago, obviously now he's tabled at December 12th date And all of this is earlier than the January 31st That was initially said to have been in play the three month period obviously the earlier the better and it kind of Supports that argument that he can just focus on campaigning on that people versus Parliament kind of mantra So in terms of an actual EU answer a couple of the sources this morning on Bloomberg Suggesting that we won't actually get anything could well have to wait until Monday or Tuesday Next week before they make a decision obviously it's a bit of a weird one at the moment Boris has put it out there But I'll lack a commitment Almost again from Labour about what exactly they want to do because they want to wait for Europe But Europe wants to wait for the UK All in all it's just You know hence the reason why really this situation epitomizes the need for a general election Because this is a kind of a lame duck government where nothing can get done And if you would think that it's only a so long period of time that this can continue before it's inevitable A general election needs to take place I was going to talk through a couple of the latest election opinion polls on on Westminster, but but in all honesty Even though we know conservatives are kind of ahead at the moment And and obviously liberal Democrats have seen a decent return as well to the fold given their stance of revoking Brexit to capture that real Remain vote the idea here though is kind of like with Theresa May in in April 2017 The polls were suggesting around a 22 and a half percentage gain for conservatives and it absolutely did not materialize and backfired I think opinion polls really are need to be taken with a large pinch of salt largely because They're a reflection of people's opinions of what they would do in the future Ie what would you do on the 25th of October if you are voting for election on the 12th of December? Well, there's a lot hell of a lot that can happen in those two Dates and we saw that with the 2017 election whether it was Changes with what was it dementia tax whether it was Theresa May not Showing at those televised TV debates whether it was Labour Kind of really galvanizing the younger demographic vote all in all it meant that all of those polls that were done before Are rendered basically redundant, so I don't really see too much point looking at them at the moment Obviously the resounding sentiment is that Boris would get a majority but I do actually on these points think that he will actually Seal the deal. I don't think he's gonna do what May did which was kind of Disenfranchised a regular older demographic supporter. I actually think Boris has gone a really strong Argument to make and it's a very it's one that's simplistic and will resonate I think with his base and will capture I see not too much threat Realistically from the Brexit party, but for him the sooner the better in that respect I would say so that's it for Brexit terms an actual pound. What is going on? Not a great deal to be honest and it you know depending on whether EU come out and say something more explicit About their commitment on the duration whether that falls in the conservative way or the labor way Might cause a bit of reaction, but as I said, it might not be until Monday Tuesday We get the result for that so could be fairly fairly quiet but worth being vigilant I'd say on Twitter for updates the other news story that I thought was quite interesting and and to To bring you up to speed on was vice president Mike Pence These American politicians it's almost like I can't can't help themselves stick their foot in their mouth and He gave a speech yesterday where he criticized China's actions against protesters in Hong Kong That's just that that's what you don't talk about at the moment I mean you can criticize China for manipulating its currency. You can say They do all kinds of other things, but just don't talk about Hong Kong at the moment They do not take very kindly to that The Chinese Foreign Ministry came out about half an hour ago and said they stated that they are Extremely indignant about VP Pence's speech and they resolutely oppose it So if you think about it at the moment The stage in which we're at is that we've got this partial trade deal They're continuing dialogue actually top US and Chinese officials are discussing plans by telephone today Beijing will request cancellation of some planned and existing US tariffs on Chinese imports according to people briefed on the talks Essentially what the US want is to China to double its annual increase of purchasing agricultural goods To 40 to 50 billion Whereas China say they want to aim to buy at least 20 billion and then look to scale it up as And when those December tariffs are removed and existing ones are also rolled back So I guess actually thinking about it. This is fairly Reflective of how other trade talks have gone this time though It's come from Pence rather than Trump before they have these important phone calls or face-to-face meetings The Americans do tend to kind of wag the stick so to speak and it almost feels like that again a problem here is as I said culturally the Hong Kong is a very Kind of Tentious issue in mainland China at the moment and so talking about that I'm not sure that's going to have the best result going into these conversations later on today fallout of those talks a breakdown of the partial trade deal of course goes into that that kind of Continuous trade war cycle that we've looked at before and perhaps if that did happen You could see quite a negative reaction in markets and you'd be looking for downside in US equities At the moment which otherwise have remained relatively supportive through the earnings that we've had throughout the throughout the week So yeah, you could could spark a flight to quality bid I guess then if they're meeting today You probably though won't like now or start to hear comments until a bit later on late European afternoon I would say but something to be aware of the one earnings report. I just wanted to mention was Amazon I did show you the NASDAQ saw quite an aggressive drop last night In terms of the the headlines there Earnings drop year-over-year for the first time in basically two years Projections for their operating income and sales in the period Fell short of analysts estimates their shares actually fell as much as just over nine percent last night So obviously nine percent is a is a huge move for a company of that magnitude Jeff Bezos waking up this morning fine finding himself now number two in the billionaires top list So mr. Gates back on top again Cloud computing unit remains the cash cow, of course when you're looking at the metrics to underline the strengths of this company Sales in that division actually rose 35% in Q3 However, 35% sounds pretty impressive, but that's the AWS that kind of cloud divisions that growth was the slowest since Amazon ever started since they started reporting that units performance And this comes a mid-increasing competition in this area particularly that from well-funded rivals essentially Microsoft's Azure and Google's cloud platform, but the Microsoft one's probably the biggest in line with competition in that space So yeah, Amazon was a little bit weaker in that regard just quickly Let me just bring up the earnings calendar for today Just so we know who's coming out as per usual Friday's do tend to be a little bit more quiet As earnings season typically hits its peak during midweek. So today Companies that we've got Verizon ABN Bev They're probably they're you two real bigger names. The others are more kind of mid cap size Calendar wise. What else have we got to come German I foes coming out at nine o'clock? Be interested to see what the general kind of sentiment is at the moment In regard to forward looking over the next six months so current conditions, but business outlook for the What they foresee for the future always gonna be quite telling particularly with that weak German data that we had yesterday I did you know just to summarize the weakness of that German data And why the iPhone could be particularly interesting was this was a comment I picked out of the the market report This is the company that compiles the data on the PMIs and they've actually read the report the German numbers yesterday Because we remember we had that real blip in the euro where the French numbers came out Services was really strong and we almost instantly reversed it on the German figures the German downturn in the economy continues employment falling for the first time in six years Services in Germany a 37 month low business sentiment turned increasingly negative expectations falling to the lowest level since November 2012 so that later pot later point be interested to see whether that translate also into the iPhone reading So I'd say on the balance probably some scope for a downside surprise So it might be worth just keeping arms European assets at 9 a.m Otherwise for the session it is pretty quiet the US University of Michigan sentiment is the final reading for October so tends to be typically not that market moving So other than that and any update on the trade dialogue with those high-level talks going on To conclude more detail on the partial deal They're probably the key things that I'd be monitoring fundamentally today. All right. I hand you over to Sam And if I don't speak to you before I wish you all a very good weekend Even though I am wearing this shirt. I must say come on England Yeah, we'll be having words about that later Well, but a quick look over the charts To begin I think start off with that with currencies and you're obviously a decent enough move to the downside yesterday And it's been to one of the guys is about to go To stage three and they were short on the Euro and the looking at Potentially taking profit as it came down and what a good level and they decided to come out as it just happened to be the Low of the day the the higher the 16th s2 Good test a couple of goes at it didn't want to break and you can see we've rebounded since I won 1131 Keypoint to mark up obviously for the day and then the week now I guess to keep an eye on and then to the upside just where we found resistance is a Bit choppy but on the low of Wednesday as well, so we're keeping a watch on that Probably worth having Potential look at the trend from yesterday's lows to see if that's respected on the third test Also, you can see perhaps as well now What is the higher today the higher yesterday evening once we found support on that one 1131 to the upside the couple resistance Points that we would have to get through Coming to the pivot highs from yesterday Afternoon as well in the mix and on the pivot itself. You've got yesterday mornings low So quite a bit of resistance above where we're trading but really key support from yesterday's low If that was to go then I do feel you are looking down to towards 111 Handle other than the lowest 17 so been doing a bit of a small range I think everyone will be pretty happy to get this week done with it's been a quiet one Monday next week Doesn't look quite as well, but certainly Wednesday first day Friday look like they could be pretty good days I have to say I'm gonna look at the pound as well decent move in in correlation with the euro yesterday Stopping at the same time the euro did whether you want to call it because of this level I think more the euro was dictating things there key levels to the downside today If we can get through yesterday's low then you know I do like the look of this area 127 73 But it's kind of rangeband isn't it? We know we've the failure I guess in hindsight looking back in a couple of weeks to clear above 130 May may be you know an opportunity there where it's you know a bit lower down But whether that really happens or not time will tell see some big developments to come no doubt So a medium-term position at the moment in the pound probably doesn't make too much sense I would say looking on a 15-minute chart just above the pivot So the pivot area for both the euro and the pound pretty important And we're in the small range where we've just broken through the low of the day But fail test of that and we bounced 10 ticks already So a confirmed break below that low then sure we can look down at yesterday's lows as well bit of a zone Above the pivot as well from the morning area of support around 9 a.m. To The clothes in highs that we had yesterday evening. So I don't know on paper It looks quite choppy currencies for the pound anyway And I don't think there's much harm into sort of saying know what this this wait and see Is anyone really gonna get in a new big position today? We'll have to have to wait and see that look over at S&P Which you know, it's been resilient like ampersand through the earnings and you know, we're still trending high I think there's there's a nice trend line on from the lows that we had from Wednesday The second low here that's just been respected this morning So it's dropping this down to 15-minute chart now once that trend line for sorts itself out And you can see here worth having on especially for you know the afternoon when things are gonna pick up below there I'm a seller above there and spur certainly the time it could well be the pivot in the mix as well I'd be happy to to stay long a lot of resistance up at yesterday's highs in the R1 and on a relatively quiet day It's not really too surprising that that held As well. So yeah, you can see we're just getting squeezed in and that's really how I would look to play this pivot is obviously important Maybe shorter term trend line as well. And then obviously those highs From the the week putting it onto a 240 what would happen if we get a break above those those highs this week Well, you've got quite a lot of resistance. So unless we had a really big push above 30 25 Which is also the all-time high and then I wouldn't be getting too ahead of myself just yet Quick look over at gold which pushed higher. Yes So we finally got that that trend line break that we've been eyeing up admittedly either way and and This was what I was waiting for was really thinking just about Let's just get that one, you know the how unsure I was About which direction gold was gonna go and it was a case of well under here to sell above there to buy and of course You know, I happen to be out the office when it happens But a decent push and what an opportunity. Let's be honest, you know It came back retested and and then did go and we're now trading up at where you would probably have said the first real Target would have been that high the 11th and We're quite a lot higher Going into the end of the week. Can we confirm a break above here? I'd say that's pretty important going into the back end of the week Because obviously this as it stands Here looking 60 minute 1508 is a big resistance level So yeah, I've confirmed break above happy days for gold and you gotta imagine that's gonna help drag Silver fruit as well, which you can see also has broken through some key resistance points and trend lines as well Maybe a bit more to go to really keys resistance point here at 18 10 you can see those highs from the 26 so for those that are watching that would be the area that I'd be looking to To be comfortable if I was still on let's put it like that oil another market, which dragged higher not just Yesterday well a bit yesterday, but of course the the Wednesday person break above that key resistance point around 55 We almost yesterday afternoon getting to the highs from you guessed it the 26 I look commodities looking around that size from the 26 again. Can we close above there will be important We haven't had I guess a clothe a retest back on 55 on another day So that could be a nice area of support to potentially look at but again relatively Subdued start to the day and yes They was you know didn't finish massively higher Probably just wait to see Into the afternoon for oil gold and S&P But certainly some nice levels in the mix there as well on the open Let's have a look at the DAX 30 minutes into it now almost choppy Not surprising for the DAX on a Friday pretty range bound over the last to call it almost 24 hours So no harm in waiting for a bigger move to come and of course on this longer term chart We're the highest we've been for for quite some time In the backs and actually just looking here on the weekly continuation. Let me just remove the pivots You can see just how important this area is Let's get that line drawn on from the week of the 23rd of July 2018 So pretty big pretty big level there can we close above would be massive Not may well get a bit of profit-taking into next week But of course a big one to come next week with a Fed With non-farm payroll some GDP numbers inflation numbers out of the EU It's one I'm really looking forward to especially after how slow I would say this one has been as usual any questions Please do let us know good luck to all the England rugby supporting fans bad luck to the New Zealand ones It's gonna be a blinder. I hope you'll have a good weekend and good trading day