 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien Good Thursday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming alive from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time quite a day yesterday Following up fed day. We had some remarks from Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday the implicit versus explicit guarantee of Deposits not quite Maybe as implicit as we thought maybe it is maybe it's not we got a little bit of cloud yesterday We got a quarter basis point hike and you got an S&P that traded down 100 points from where we were folks You trade down about a percent and a half in the S&P on the day, but boy We were higher we were higher in terms of almost being higher by a percent on that number up to 4,073 73 and boy you drop out of bed you trade higher overnight We got the Bank of England going up by 25 basis points So you got Bank of England goes up 25 basis points. We go up 25 basis points The ECB goes up 50 basis points and boy Things continue this morning first Republic yesterday's action man You accelerate from 1650 down to 13 you just back things up a couple days man last couple days It has not been a nice afternoon Tuesday afternoon. You traded from 19 down to 13 shortly after the close today We're up by about 60 or 70 pennies. You get the Dow in negative territory right now in the market just rolling over a bit Just checking in on everything right now, right? We make a load about 6 30 in the morning of 32,000 240 in the Dow You trade up 100 points were back down to that level barely in the green right now in the Russell You talk about a drop-off man. The Russell was almost at 1800 yesterday. You close out the day at 1740 We were just back down at that level 1740 right now. You're trading at 1747. How about the crude contract from 64 bucks on Monday? We're sitting above $70 70 53 gold surging higher yet again up to 1980 last night You're down to set in 1974 and we jump to notes and bonds Yesterday's action man. You talk about an acceleration the tenure trades from a price point of 1326 and you close out now that was early early at about 8 9 in the morning 1 13 26 You close out the day at 1 15 16 my goodness. You got the 10 year right now 3.5% will call it the yield on the 10-year Treasury 3.5% the 30 year Goes from about 120 908 to almost 132 you're trading at 130 25 right now We jump over to the volatility index spikes yesterday, but all things considered right look at that VIX man Nothing like what we're seeing and meanwhile the S&P folks keep in mind the S&P traded down 100 points from where it was at the highs yesterday and you're seeing a VIX locked in between about 20 and 22 potentially We're 2142 so far this morning. We jump around to some of the currencies Huge moves in notes and bonds. You're gonna see some action in the currencies when that's happening Of course, you got the dollar index going from 103 and change yesterday You actually got a 101 handle overnight in the dollar index you're back to 102 40. We'll call it As I'm jumping around here one second for me folks alright Okay, and we jump over to the Euro anytime you get them Central bank action, you're gonna see some volatility of course yesterday. There's your volatility a little bit this morning We jump over the pound pound US dollar and there's some action as they hike by 25 basis points as well All right, so where do we kick things off man? Well, we got a few spots. We can do it And we're gonna kick things off with No, come on There we go Fed walks tight rope between inflation and bank turmoil, but for how long? Talking to my dad yesterday after the program. We were just talking about the market talking about The chairman's press conference and he was making the point he made it on the show last night You know he had said if if this banking crisis does not tighten The economy sufficiently and I'm adding a few words. I'm paraphrasing, right? But if it doesn't tighten then the the Fed will do the tightening for The tightening is coming folks. Okay, and what I got out of that press conference is I think what a lot of people got And it's what we expected going into that press conference It's very difficult to tell right now the impact that this banking crisis is having is going to have On the broader economy very difficult Chairman Powell did not seem very Confident in terms of how that would play out the impact it would have What kind of you know if you say is this akin to a 25 basis point cut? Is it akin to a 50 basis point cut? Nobody knows folks Nobody knows if this is just contained to a few Silicon Valley banks few regional banks and everybody gets their money back That probably shouldn't have systematic risk, but you got credit Swiss going down Okay, things are going to tighten up capital requirements are going to be in focus as regulators look at what's happening here That is going to tighten things up but boy folks we are at a time of generational inflation and If we go higher for longer to the turn of two years, I mean we're getting data We got weekly jobless claims this morning yet again. What was it? 191,000 watch out man watch out for sure Okay, let's jump around to some of the equities moving this morning. Mr. Jack Dorsey moved on from Twitter But boy his equity still has some problems over its square block Hindenburg out with a note saying that they're facilitating criminal behavior I believe is the deal and boy you talk about a drop-off now Now this is the same shorting firm that just came after what a Donnie is that he pronounced it? Asia's wealthiest man tanked his shares. They're stealing dealing with woes before you talk about a drop-off man I haven't read the report. I've just seen the highlight the headlines But there's your headline block shares plunge after Hindenburg says Jass Dorsey's company facilitates fraud is the headline there Yeah, they've targeted other ones. There it is the Donnie group the company's flagship cash app facilitates crime and lacks strong compliance controls Yeah, be interesting to see how that one plays out But guess what investors today after seeing what happened with the Donnie. I think probably playing into that Yeah, you go from 74 down to 58 Was that $16 while right now? Let's be fair right now. You closed at 72 you're trading at 61 So you're down $11 you're down 15% for square. That's gonna be an interesting one to see how that plays out Let's check around to some of the fang stocks this morning. You got Apple shares That's gonna give the Nasdaq a lift man with Apple up almost two dollars apples get 16 billion dollars folks Boom just like that. They add 32 billion dollars to their market cap overnight in a pretty calm evening evening Microsoft shares. Yeah, this Nasdaq man. Look at Microsoft I mean look at this, right? So much for the market sell-off man Microsoft is Above where you were trading at any part this week going back to Monday Microsoft up another four dollars this morning right now You jump over to Google shares alphabet up a dollar so far We jump over to Tesla shares Tesla up another four dollars. Look at this action man Let's check out some of the chicks top chip stocks and a video shares up seven bucks Man It's everywhere. Let's check out some of the big banks JP Morgan up barely Bank of America up barely. Yeah, it's gonna be an interesting open to say the least man to say the least We'll see where we go. All right, let's see what else I had pulled up here as we come into the first break We're gonna be talking our man Kevin Hinks coming up after the break and we'll talk a little bit of earnings One of the equities they talked about on their program yesterday out with their numbers Olive Garden Darden restaurants Raised its revenue outlook for fiscal 2023 for the second consecutive quarter net sales Almost two point eight billion dollars. How about this one right same-store sales growth eleven point seven percent across all of its brands? Inflation folks, okay, right? Olive Garden long-horned steakhouse the Capitol grill seasons 52 another great one I've talked about it before if you've never checked out of seasons 52 folks I don't own any darn restaurants, but they are a good restaurant a little bit more health-conscious, but still very classy establishment some good food and There's your chart of Darden basically unchanged a little bit lower stay tuned folks who come back talk to our man Kevin Hinks If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and Technicles sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at TFNN comm when you subscribe You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today TFNN comm educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN All our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN comm and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. We got the S&P futures up by about 19 points right now We were briefly over that 4,000 price point at about 5 a.m. Eastern time We're up by 19 points right now trading in the S&P's you jump over to the NASDAQ Well, you talk about a move man from 13,082 and yeah, you're talking about almost 400 points. What was the low yesterday? Let's just zoom it in for a second Did you get there? The low 12,000 six 78 yeah, you did absolutely remarkable on that market and you got the Dow right now up by 53 points Let's jump around to some of the other stories we got pulled up here. We talked about Darden restaurants And let's talk about the Bank of England So there's the headline they get from them Bank of England hikes interest rates by 25 basis points after inflation surprise Yeah, how about their inflation man 10.4 in February dealing with some inflation to put it lightly across the globe All right, what other activities we have pulled up here. I'm gonna talk a little bit of Coinbase, man Where's my Coinbase article? Oh, come on too much good stuff to talk about this morning. Oh Did I close it? Shame on me Okay, I'll find it afterwards. We'll talk a little bit. Okay. Let's talk a little bit of Bitcoin regardless, man Bitcoin yesterday trades from 29,000 under 27 with the market man. We popped to 27,500 you take a look at Ethereum right now Pretty interesting action to put it lightly when you're talking about cryptos man Look at Ethereum man this year 1100 to 1700, but there's nothing like Bitcoin right now in the last week You're up by almost 50% from 20,000 you make a high of almost. Yeah, you got a 29,000 handle pretty remarkable Okay, let's jump into some of these other articles I had pulled up here talking about Switzerland right interesting read from the journal out here now as I've mentioned one of My best friends probably my best friend lived with them for three years in college at Villanova. He went to work for JP He's a Staten Island boy Got a job working for JP Morgan in Manhattan was fortunate to get transferred over JP Morgan in Switzerland Where they have thousands of employees or at least they did at the time Visited him when he was working in Geneva beautiful beautiful beautiful country to put it lightly a little expensive to put it Lightly as well visit him for a week when he was over in Gina Geneva a while back. He ended up Making the move to Zurich. He now works for Thankfully UBS not credit Swiss, but they're in a good position of strength But boy, it's a tough one man, and he's been talking about it You know that the judge just the the general hit on the reputational banking of Switzerland is a big deal And not good for the country and he's got a daughter now. That's gonna be one in May he's getting married this year and He's looking to Become a citizen of Swiss of Switzerland. He's learning German right now It's a very difficult process to become a citizen over there, but he's been working over there for 10 15 years something like that Nonetheless, right they go through it here folks boy. You go through it, man. I mean, yeah, they are a country that is basically a banking hub as we all know and Now they used to just have two big banks now They have one big bank their reputation is banking and what happens if that one big bank runs into trouble as it did in 2008 when UBS needed a bailout So that's kind of the structural hit that they do take there now you look at how big the banks are Let me see if I can find the lines man because their balance sheet is Insanely larger than the country's GDP and I'll find the quote at the next break is what I'll do I know our man Kevin Hinks. He's usually on at 9 15. He's running around. He's a busy man this morning folks But he will be coming up at fast market coming up at 12 today Yeah, I'll find that quote because it is pretty remarkable how big the banks are in terms of Versus the country and the GDP and basically that they represent everything. I'll have to pull it up at the break But nonetheless Uh, here it is. Okay. I found the coinbase article. Thank you SEC plans lawsuit against coinbase according to the exchange regulators believe the u.s crypto exchange violated investor protection laws is what they're coming them after them for Coinbase said it received a letter from the sec known as a wells notice So regulars regulators say they believe companies or individuals violated investor protection laws now By warning coinbase about the potential lawsuit the sec is setting its sights on one of the biggest names in crypto The lawsuit would represent Gensler's biggest step into that jurisdiction over crypto The notice concerns several aspects of coinbase's business including assets listed on its crypto exchange in Its staking service coinbase earn that seems to be a big sticking point, right? The staking service and how they're kind of playing these things And its wallet service the company said coinbase earn is a program that allows customers to earn rewards on their digital assets by staking That is when crypto investors lock up their coins to facilitate transactions on the underlying blockchain network We're prepared it kind of sounds like that's what you do when you allow your shares to be Loaned out to be sold short right something to that degree in terms of you own the crypto You're keeping it on coinbase. You're allowing coinbase to use that crypto while you keep it there And for that you get a slight return it's not like banking with Thinkorswim or fidelity or TD Ameritrade or any of those where your money is guaranteed to that degree though folks That's probably the kick And yeah, I've talked about it before man. I would not have my money on coinbase And you're seeing it down There you go, man, uh, you talk about a hit. Wow So you're gonna be down 16 dollars and you know what's interesting here folks is that I hadn't even pulled up the equity Okay, uh, I was up about 6 o'clock 6 30 this morning hanging out with Tommy for a while looking at the market We're waking up. We're having coffee. I was reading the articles about coinbase this one and another one on CNBC and What's so interesting is this stuff has become so common That I didn't even think to say oh man I wonder what the stock is doing right because there's so many headlines left and right that there's shenanigans going on in the crypto sector and Yeah, it looks like maybe this one might matter, but guess what man? All you're doing is you're back to last week's trading range on coinbase now Bitcoin's going up by 50 percent over that time. Okay, so keep that in context now. You want to talk about something, man? You back Coinbase up Okay They go public at the high of 429 you make it almost back up to that level not really I guess to 340 What was the high there? 368 we'll call it in November and what I'm going to make the case here is if you want action folks Go buy some bitcoin if you want action Don't buy some coinbase because look at what's happened to coinbase. Okay coinbase You're going to open at $60 Okay, that's basically if you're a you know chartist you could say that's just the area This has been consolidating between about 50 and 100 you're going to open at 60 versus Now this chart goes back to i'm going to do the same thing for bitcoin. Okay, this chart goes back to april of 2021 now If you've been following the markets folks, you know when april of 2021 was it was the high and then Another high which was the other high that we had on coinbase's chart now the point being folks bitcoin Is right back to where you were After that initial dip lower to where you were in june of 2021 Well, compare that to coinbase man You bought coinbase back there at 220 you're opening today at $60 If you bought coinbase again, june july Anywhere in the middle of that trough between the two highs in april and in november if you bought it anywhere in there at about 220 to 250 You're at $60 today versus if you bought bitcoin you're almost even right So keep that in mind folks if you do want action bitcoin seems to be rising to the crop man Absolutely remarkable. What's happened to ftx all that stuff and meanwhile you have bitcoin Dramatically higher to 27,000 and yeah almost right back to where you were on those lows in the middle of 2021 Stay tuned folks s&p's up by 21. 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We got the s&p's you open up about seven tenths of the positive 39 99 the price point on that s&p right now nasdaq you man. You talk about a surge nasdaq 100 You're about 1.2. We took a look at some of those tech stocks right all of them dramatically higher Dow up 127 you get the russell up by 15 right now. Let's jump over to apple Apple up by nine tenths percent right now We jump over to microsoft shares up almost two percent right now google shares up almost two percent right now Man some big moves across the board. See how tesla is trading up by 2.5 percent Arc shares down 1% quite a pullback for them yesterday erased all the games they got the day before Yeah, remarkable action in this market as the s&p is just inch above 4 000 right now You jump over to the spy spy trading 395 64 boy, you were up to like 402 yesterday I think in the spy. Let's get the high print. We'll put it back to Yeah, you talk about a half hour, man Uh, it was the half hour an hour. No, it was the half hour chart There we go Um, yeah, you talk about a bar right from 3 99 to 392 in the span of 130 minute bar You jump back to the s&p that bar takes you from 4040 down to 39 70 You put things on an hourly chart And yeah, you got a bar that takes you from 4050 to 39 70 man Just a crazy hour in the final day as things really shifted from a little bit of exuberance up to 4070 now Let's check out the Fibonacci numbers in terms of where we're going right 382. You're talking about 4000 and seven You make it all the way back up to 4032 man You're talking about the 618 And that would be an interesting one because that would get you all the way back to prior to the press conference folks Coming into chairman powell at 2 p.m. Eastern time And yeah, so if you're looking for a short, there's your couple Fibonacci areas You can put on your chart and what i'm going to do real quick to take a look Okay, let's let's back this up And i'm going to back up the spy real quick I'm going to show you and some of these Fibonacci's man, right? I got this up here in terms of on the chart the 618 Patience is the name of the game sometimes folks and you can scale into traits. Okay, that's that's what in this type of a market folks Excuse me. Were you getting 100 point swings in the s&p, right? Especially on fed day. Excuse me. You're getting 10 point swings in the spy Folks, that's two two and a half percent That market moved in the final two hours of yesterday and that doesn't even include one percent up Two and a half percent down in the span of the final two hours of trading yesterday Very difficult to pinpoint the exact range nothing wrong with scaling into trades if you do But if you had the patience to wait for it, man, you back things up And you got to go back to the high february 14th. Okay This is just a four hour chart. Let's put on a daily for a little bit of clarity here You back it up to the high you could make the case That's really where the slide began to negative prices february 14th the spy now the spy is a little bit different than the futures Okay, because we've had some pretty big tails Prior to the market open or after the market close overnight on the s&p futures where it gets a little different again No magic science folks. You look at everything you have you make the decisions you can have That's why some of the areas are a little bit different in terms of maybe the areas You're choosing if you're choosing to scale in before you look at this chart, man From the highs of february 14th down to the lows of march 13th 401 95 was the 618 and we got to 40249 yesterday and you only got there for a brief moment folks, right? I mean check that out. These are minute bars. We're talking about i'm zooming in on the action And for a period of about five or six minutes you are above that 618 and that's not a small one Remember the run that we had in february, right? Look at this chart. We're talking about here when you go back That's basically the pullback that gave back all we got this year And then what did we do we bounce the 618 and boy if you're ever doing an a to bc to d leg here folks Okay, you're talking about an a point of 415. You're talking about A b point of 380. What's that about 35 is your a to b leg You get up to a high of about 40249. What's what's that? 367 50 360 750 that would bring you down to in the s and p's and 367 50 on this chart Somewhere into the bottom range that we were at in october, right? You make it all the way down to 348 and recall The s and p's have a show of 348 but on october 13th I believe we were a dramatically lower pre market was the case as well So you got a different spike on the s and p futures risk the spy, but not outlandish, right? What did I just say 363? Yeah, 367 50 360 750 look at where that ends up on that chart You're coming back to test some of the lows of october. You're coming back to test the low of june 362 17 And boy yesterday we moved 10 points. So don't tell me we can't get what 27 points from where we are at some point In the near future as the market sits right at 4,000 you talk about a Round number our man basal Chapman. We appreciate basal doing the program live from eight till nine This morning if you didn't get a chance to check it out folks basal did a show eight till nine We'll be playing that coming up right after my program So pretty current the market's right where it was coming into the opening bell when basal did his program live from Eight till nine now I mentioned so there's your spy, okay And basal's does some great work man. He was talking to my dad earlier this week And they were talking about the nasdaq versus the spy versus the dow basal's had a couple great trades in the dow and how The nasdaq's actually the leader right now. It's continuing today. I mean look at it, right? And he was saying And it's playing out if you haven't tried out basal's opening call folks yet Please try it out great service. You do anything we do at tf&n You get it free for 30 days essentially because there's nothing to risk you got to pay on day one, okay because What we notice folks is if you give out free trials without making people pay on day one You actually don't care about it. You don't pay attention most of the time So it's the same exact thing. We sign you up. You pay on day one. It kind of incentivizes you to pay to that degree and Excuse me to pay attention to that degree and then if you don't like it, you just cancel Pretty simple action as it goes forward. But taking a look at the futures Okay, what's so interesting is when you go back to february 14th, which is the day I was just doing on the spy You take the fibonacci number you go down to the tail And this is what i'm talking about here with scaling, okay So which one's correct folks if you're talking about the 618 Is the 4053 price point correct? Well, you can make the case that it's correct, right? That's a nice area that you hit in march It's also an area that you got up to yesterday And this is where you can choose a couple levels. Okay. Now I was looking at 4053 on the futures I knew there was a potential for large moves yesterday Okay, and the spy got you above that level because you got all the way up to 4073 So there was about 20 points higher that when you look at the spy Right, you just touched that number at 40195 you got up to 40249 But don't think you have to cherry pick the exact spot, man You're getting in for an options contract. Maybe you buy one at 4053 And if you're adventurous enough, maybe you get a second one when it hits the spy one That's how i'm approaching this market right now because the swings and listen, you got to put stops in though Okay, don't just scale all the way because you scale all the way and you're wrong Boy yesterday, uh yesterday you do that on the bullish side, man. You're gone to the tune of 100 s and p points So it's a double-edged sword. Okay, you got to have a plan Pick a point on the chart that you put your stops in That's it. You got to do it, man because You want to be alive for the next time the market moves 100 points folks, okay You want to have some capital To stay in this game because we have some volatility going on and I imagine it's going to persist for a while You think the fed dot plot is going to go out for two years In terms of higher for longer and we're not going to have volatility as we're dealing with higher rates to tame inflation for the next two years Think the market woke up to that a little bit. We'll talk a little bit of banks when we get back Let's check out first republic up 4% today But the day is young as our man vassal says stay tuned folks. We'll be right back You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis In our gear to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get tom o'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free With our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors build the s&p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spx s Directions daily s&p 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs Direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus And summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments dot com A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services llc This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol gz Welcome back folks good the s&p sitting right under that four thousand price point We got right back to where we were at about 450 a.m. Eastern time and again. I'm going to back this off a bit right now If you're looking for fibonacci areas from yesterday's acceleration folks the 3a2 brings you to about 4007 the 618 i've been seeing there are 618s everywhere in this market man That's that's what i'm trying to stick to it seems to be working um And then maybe that's just how the market's moving and it's just the swings are so big that the 3a2 isn't getting it done Man the 618 is what is vogue right now because the moves are just so large in both directions And yeah, you get up to a price point of 4032 4033 something like that Backing things up a little bit further You back things up to the high of last friday That was just above yeah 409 so we're coming into that level you back things up to early tuesday Yeah, that's the high from early tuesday about 4032 now remember you finished that date about 4043 You charged higher wednesday into the federal reserve meeting very interesting you went to that federal reserve meeting It's almost optimism Um at peak highs as this market catching a bid you're now up to basically the 3a2 What did we just get to you just got to 407 25 man on my chart were at 407 47 So we'll see how we do right now back to a five minute chart as you're back to the 3a2 of yesterday's move Just that quick. Let's see how the vixas train right now They were remarkable that vix right sucking out all that volatility premium As you're right back to where you were beginning of day yesterday mean the while we had a hundred point sell-off in between All right, let's talk a little bit of banks. Let's take a look at first republic Up 5.4 percent But folks, what do I always say? percentages on small numbers can be deceiving Because does it look like that chart has any up any up on it? You even got a red day today when you're up by 5.5 percent even on a daily basis down from 120 down from 173 That's just going back you back got up even further man down from 222 at the end of 2021 And yeah, so they got another downgrade by fitch amid a cash crunch The balance sheet is not sustainable I don't think first republic sustainable man You're in the news as a failing banks for weeks on end and you got the big banks Putting in 30 billion dollars and it doesn't even blink the market trades you down to the tune of 50 percent the next day Are you putting your money in first republic tomorrow? Who was opening an account at first republic tomorrow? Let alone ever risking more than are you showing up at first republic bank with a million dollar check to open a checking account tomorrow? You get the point not even close, right? So they get a downgrade Now some of the interesting parts in terms of what they talk about here is saying that well Well, they just received that 30 billion dollars. The bank's new funding profile Is relatively costly which I what I like about this is this is getting into even further If you don't think this thing's about to fail in the next few days Well, let's just look at the actual fundamentals of this company first republic and their ability to exist as a business going forward The bank's new funding profile is relatively costly and it's viewed as the primary ratings constraint Okay, it's currently operating at a loss. That is not sustainable over the longer term absent a balance balance sheet restructuring Here's the kicker though The requirement to repay the 30 billion dollars that they just got from the 11 banks At the end of its term will pose a challenge for the troubled lender like other u.s banks The fair market value of first republic securities and loans has fallen below book values meaning any asset sales would likely require A significant recapitalization The bank's long duration municipal securities and residential mortgage loans holdings also raise capital concerns Yeah They got some big problems man in a big way exactly you want your free toaster man to go with your million dollar deposit Well, good luck It better be one heck of a toaster because that might be all you end up with As they give it back even as I keep talking right you were just at 1460 man You just gave up a dollar in the span of 10 minutes on the open Even as this market charges higher to the 3a 2 line of those s and p's Let's see how the nasdaq's doing in terms of fibonacci numbers where we're at We'll take an area near the top of yesterday We'll take an area near the bottom the nasdaq through the 50 percent the 618 of the nasdaq 100 129 25 Keep your eye on that one All right, what else do we got pulled up here? Let's see. Oh, we got to talk about this one. Yeah So tiktok CEO he's going to be in front of the house today And yeah, I think they're gone man. I don't know how it happens and and it's it's good to see politicians finally agreeing On something and this seems like an easy one man because no matter what they say if a company is owned by china folks You know the deal Okay, and that's the deal and if they want the data, they're going to get it You're going to see the CEO of tiktok, which is owned by bite dance come in front of congress today And he's going to say his remarks are already out there He has not had a request to share data with the chinese government and if he gets one He will not even do that. Do you believe that? I don't think that china would I mean This is the same country that just like locked up jack ma and they still got the other guy out there right from renaissance or something like that Um, whatever that company was that the executive just disappeared a month ago So they either have to sell divest get that company out of china's hands and then Or they're going to get kicked up, but they're not going to do that the chinese government just wouldn't do that I don't think they're gonna cow to Such a demand even though I see such a demand as being very reasonable Um, I don't even think tiktok. I heard this this morning The tiktok is actually not even allowed in china Yeah So they know You know what is going on in terms of they don't even allow it in their own country Meanwhile, it's just proliferating across the u.s Um and social media in general folks all the studies that come out If you have kids in the house listen, I talk about screen time all the time It's so important. There's good screen time and there's bad screen time. Um, I have kids in my household that are two five and 16, okay and You just see the strain especially on teenagers you get into that man the social media the phone living on your phone Make sure you get those kids off their phone. I was reading a great article a couple weeks ago Just talking about it seems impossible in the moment because everything's electronic and teenagers especially are tied to their phones Uh But you just got to do it and many parents do and it is something you can do and you just set you set limits Okay, it's not a binary choice that you say you can't touch your phone. You can't watch a computer screen You can't watch a television show Uh You set limits one of those limits. Maybe you don't let the kids bring the phone into the room Right, maybe they bring it because you know kids They just want to sit in their room and play on their phone these days. Hey, I used to sit in my room and play video games Right every generation does it to some degree at least as they become available man Uh, but yeah, you're seeing a surge and it's probably accurate because I imagine that they're gone Or they're hampered in a pretty dramatic way, but I just can't see china selling that man I mean you think about the goals china wants long term, right? They own The most prolific data collecting Application the world might have ever seen outside of facebook, right? And you think that they're just going to give it up because biden says so I mean, that's that's the one that i'm trying to compound in my head right how that would happen So he's going to be in front of congress today, man. That's what he's going to say the remarks were already out He's going to say they don't get the data Even if they ask I won't give it to him and hopefully all of our politicians say I don't believe you because that's not How it works when you're working with china folks. I mean, I don't know how you roll that one off Um with a straight face to say that But nonetheless snapchat you're up seven percent today Meta shares up by 2.5 percent today, right big numbers. Let's see how square is trading on Block I should say 20.1 percent Uh, they may have a problem folks. Yeah to put it lightly. Let's see how the banks are trading right now They get a lift jp morgan up 1.7 percent. Here we go bank of america up 1.5 percent city up by 1.4 percent Credit swiss still trading at 90 pennies. Not bad. All right, folks one more segment s and p holding on to game sitting at that 3a 2 4004 we're only 20 minutes in the day trading day One more segment folks. Stay tuned. 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Hopefully you had me last segment, right? Yeah, okay Uh, sorry jumping around real quick as we wrap it up s and p's right now. You're up by 34 points Just chopping around four thousand five. We'll see where we go as we've just been chopping basically since the open Nasdaq 100 you're right at about the 50% level. So interesting, right? You got the s and p's right at the 382 You got the nasdaq right at the 50% And dow not so much and that's one of the things that basil has been talking about in terms of the dow really the lag at there And let's just see what we're talking about for the dow No, we'll bounce it all the 382 will get you all the way up to 32,524 Still not even at that level just yet on the dow. Okay a couple other headlines I had pulled up here that I wanted to talk about real quickly apple pretty interesting now I just mentioned right apple. Let's see how apple is doing. They were up two bucks already Yeah, they're up a buck 60 or 1% now apple folks. They get 16 billion shares So every dollar they trade is 16 billion in market cap spending a billion dollars a year Isn't that big of a deal when their market cap fluctuates by 20 to 30 billion dollars any given day And what they're going to do is they're going to have them in theaters As a way to basically market its streaming service, which is in turn again a way to essentially market their products not many people pay for apple Plus by its own and I'm sure many do Oh, excuse me drinking a lot of coffee this morning But it comes free for a year with like any new tablet, right any new iphone So it's kind of like the ecosystem that you're buying into yet there But nonetheless a billion dollars a year. They're going to push them into Movie theaters and the likes of they talk about they have a scorsese film coming out with leonardo de caprio Yeah, so they got a couple films as they keep putting the pressure on and then what else I want to talk about here So this one's interesting from bloomberg as we wrap it up here. This is the mliv Survey now this is a market live survey on bloomberg take it for what it's worth. Okay Um But pretty interesting to see where people think the fed is going Okay, that they're not going to cut a majority until 2024 and I would agree with that one to put it lightly man But boy when you talk about where we are folks Okay swaps markets We're pricing the fed's benchmark to peak around 4.95 in may and then fall to about 4.2 in december I don't know how we get the cuts by december that that market's talking about with where inflation is folks But we get to find out stay tuned folks basil did his show was eight at eight. He's coming up now Live programming after that every Thursday everybody