 Yeah, that is you know, really the plan of action and this this by the way, this this pullback on the dollar I'm expecting it to be quite deep Yeah, I am expecting it to be quite a deep one Depending on obviously the currency pair, you know It could be you know hundreds of hundreds of pips because we've had a massive, you know trend on that dollar So I would expect equally expect a very deep pullback Yeah, that could last and that narrative could last for a third for several months, but Ultimately if You know the data supports the narrative that you know, these guys are heading into a deep recession Yeah, sooner than the US Then it's a case of just timing your dollar entries because then it will be the dollar will be a potential buy at some point Yeah so Planning out the next, you know, six months. This this is that this is this is my plan of action And so yeah, any questions on that? Oh, by the way, sorry It was a Alexander says correct me if I'm wrong didn't power mention that they did not want to repeat of the mistakes of what they did in the 80s So can you be more specific? So what happened in the 80s that he's referring to in terms of they don't want to repeat of that If you can turn on your mic if you want Alexander. Yeah, I just did I'm in the 80s from What I read on research that they hike and from hiking cycle They went back to cutting and then because they noticed the mistake that went back to hiking again, okay So this was this was a mistake that they did not want to repeat But my main question is asking about this because the reason it's exactly from what you mentioned and you say a dollar pulled back And it is obvious that the dollar is is gained strength not because as we can see the results of easy that the dollar the year US is not is still a strong currency or strong country More in demand compared to other countries around around the globe absolutely Why like why okay? I can understand the pullback because but for why that long like what why would you say six months like? I really want to get around this Like you say six months or a deep pullback because we had a really bad Wouldn't this be more looked at as a technical term or as a fundamental term like which what logic? Do we say that you might pull back to six months? I would say I thought about I don't know if I said six months Maybe three to yes, maybe three to six months Who knows and the only reason why I'm putting that timeline in timeline in timeline in sorry Let me get the words out Is to kind of manage your expectations of what the pullback may look like right now These things do take time in times of remember fundamentally You know, we're looking at medium to long longer term time horizon So the reason why I would say a pullback of maybe, you know, three months to six months Is because there could potentially be The narrative that you know, once the Fed start to you know trail off and the ECB is still hiking the The Bank of England is still hiking is that remember the data tends to lag So we don't get you know the first quarter data until The second quarter we don't get the fourth quarter data into the first quarter So when I say three to six months it may take Three months or six months in that in actuality to confirm You know that Europe or the US or say US or as a matter of fact all three of Of these countries are actually in a recession, right? So let me just explain that again so it could take members to negative quarters to confirm a Recession and so If you know two quarters is three months or a quarter three months two quarters is six months, so the narrative Yeah, I'm expecting the narrative and I'm not trying to forecast it But I'm just trying to adjust my expectations and your expectations that if you start to see a deep pullback come A pullback could last for months Yeah on on the dollar, right? So when I say three to six month on the throwing it out there, but also from the perspective of Just adjusting our our timeline in terms of how long we may want to you know, short the dollar For example could be one month, right? And these things can change. We have to be dynamic I'm not saying this today, you know, and that's gonna be it set in stone Of course things change automatically But I'm preparing for these things and if I start to see the evidence show that these things are occurring Then I've already mapped out the plan Yeah, rather than trying to react to these things that may or may not happen So when I use, you know, six months six months is probably more of the extreme end Alexandra so from that from that perspective, maybe it might be a bit far out But at the end of the day, I'm prepared for a dollar pulled back to last for that long because how many times have we seen? You know Price just continue to fall or continue going higher and everybody's watching their heads and saying oh Well, you know the dollar should have turned round by now But you're maybe two weeks or three weeks into, you know a certain cycle where you know Remember that all the banks want to buy the dollar or they want to sell the dollar for example And these things can take months to play out So that's the reason why I have that timeline doesn't mean it's going to happen But I have the six month time now I may be more on the extreme end But maybe probably three months you might get, you know, two to three months You may get a dollar pullback. That's just, you know, that's just the reason why I'm explaining That time and how would that make sense? Yeah, kind of makes sense, but things basically fundamentally so basically if there's any dollar pullback would be mainly due to over expensive US dollar because it's rich where it's rich, but fundamentally we've also Seeing that the dollar is in that position because it's It's like we said the dog with the least feelings or at least compared to to Euro great Britain if any country which Um Does have a strong economic right now, but even though they're the first I'm starting to cut rate not sorry to hold rates It'll be Australia, but Australia Also being a commodity one of the strongest commodity currencies is being affected because of its risk of environment so like basically, so it'll be more more of a And a pullback due to a dollar being expensive. So this this this will be one one one of the main reasons Do you believe? So are we are we shifting to Aussie dollar now because I was I was no no just in general in general like I'm just So so comparing the two but like like the dollar like for a fundamental reason for adults to have a pullback Either one month or three months in the environment that we are we Surrounding right now because we're in a strong risk of environment Yes, things may shift things slowly slowly look like if they may shift But this is a mate with a question But leaving that on the side looking at the at the at what's what's being presented to us and like Like I still believe the dollars are very strong by but yeah, so what reasons what reasons like fundamental Will be for the pullback. That's that's that's what I'm trying to find like and that's what I explained because of the of the dovish pivot Right. I just I was I was just saying I know I did kind of deleted it But I was saying because of the dovish pivot. Yeah, the dovish pivot what we typically know about fundamental analysis Is that the central bank that it tends to hike rates? Yeah Should be the one that you should buy and the one that is not hiking rates Yeah, is the one that you should sell look what happened with the australian dollar recently, right? They started to dovish pivot and look what's happened to australian dollar Yeah, obviously alongside the fact that we are in a risk of environment But the australian dollar once they you know adjusted expectations the market has to now re Value what that interest rate hike or the the lack of interest rate hike the value of the australian dollar versus other currencies Hence the reason why you've been seeing You know the euro was he for example, you know start to go higher, right? We're talking about this Right, the reason why didn't take that trade and I and I said to you know, I said I'm not taking it Yeah, I'm not taking the australian dollar. The reason why is because of the dovish pivot, right? So there's there's there's a lag that comes in. Yes, I understand that the the australian dollar is economically better than european Best likely to to to um to weather the storm in terms of you know recession, etc But these things take time to play out within the market. There's there's Positions have to be unwound positions have to be built and this is not positions from just one institution This is from hundreds of you know thousands of institutions all small big, etc, right? And liquidity has to be created as well. These things take time these can take months for these things to to to to to play out, right? So the point the point I'm trying to make is this all right. I said that I said that right the sick month thing might be a bit of a you know a stretch. Yeah, but From the perspective of dollar strength. Yeah You can't expect and if you go, you know back through, you know, all the data From from years decades for example, right? Whenever you get, you know Large moves and I guess maybe look at this from a maybe a weekly perspective, right? It gives a better perspective when you get a large move like this without there being much of a pullback. Yeah Eventually you will get a deep pullback You will get a deep pullback and you know, if you look at for example certain forecasts forecasts will generally, um, you know over the long term are predicting that the um You know the dollar should want to pull back, right? So maybe one to you know Three months you should start to see maybe some sort of you know, one elevens But then you start to see prices pull back might be six or twelve months again Not to say that this is exactly what's going to happen, but You can see pullbacks occur, right? Where the dollar has to be Revalued because the dollar is less likely to go or I want to say let's like to go higher But if they start to hold rates, yeah, it doesn't mean that you know the dollar's gonna or how I place just because You know one country is hiking rates over another doesn't mean that Always mean that we're going to get you know a you should buy this currency over this currency because At the end of the day, as I said, it all depends on the economic standing of that currency and that and that country So I think there will be a revaluation of the dollar once We start to the fed start to Come to the end of their hiking cycle first and as that starts to happen With the bank of england and the and and the ecp still hiking rates There's going to be some sort of you know residual effects from that Yeah, wild banks start to adjust right and grab liquidity, etc And that could result in you know, our a slow pullback could result in a sharp pullback Nobody knows but if you take this low to this high, yeah You're going to get a pullback. You're going to get a decent sized pullback. Yeah, and so because we haven't had one for what since if you're looking at what may 2021 Right, we have not had we're gonna look if you're looking at this technically now I don't really like to be driven technically but One of the things that I know is that whenever you get a trend at some point you have to come back to fair value Right, so we know this to be an absolute low Yeah, and so let's Do the fifth tool right and so what we want to what we want to look for is a pullbacks to To fair value. Yeah, so just imagine that we're doing this right At some point prices will always pull back to fair value always pull back to fair value Whether it's a ranging fair value or an auction fair value, which is what we do here Or whether it's a moving fair value or the moving average fair value They will always come back to a fair value, right? So we've just seen this strong move here. Yeah, and there's been no pullback to 50% Remember just and just keep in mind. This is a weekly chart as well Yeah, so there's been no pullback and as we go higher Yeah, as we go higher fair value obviously moves because this becomes this is still a bargain price But this becomes, you know, either expensive or it's not right depending on whether prices go higher or lower but this You're 50% of this low to whatever the high is Is the fair value that you're looking for on a decent pullback So anyone who hasn't you know got involved in this is now looking for a pullback. Yeah So at least a fair value. So let's go forward. Yeah, so let's go forward and I'll just speed this up a bit Right Actually, let me do The read time speed Right, so it still hasn't pulled back. We're gonna move this up to here now. Yeah So it hasn't pulled back to the 50% yet. We've made new highs There that's the new high still hasn't pulled back to fair value. Yeah start going higher Still hasn't pulled back to fair value So this is the new high down to the low Still hasn't pulled back to fair value hasn't done a decent pullback yet And it hasn't and it won't and this is a weekly chart, right? Right to where we are. So it makes sense It makes sense for me technically and fundamentally Yeah for price to for the dollar to want to pull back to at least Somewhere around the fair value because we haven't done so for You know over a year May 2021 And we're heading to 2023 so technical reasons why we want to have a deeper pullback But there's also fundamental reasons as to why you know, we will get a pullback Yeah, but this may be more technically driven who knows but the point being is that Is there gonna be a period where you want to get short on the dollar? Yes, but does that mean that because it comes down to here? Yeah, does that mean that oh, we're you know, it's it's a reversal on the dollar. Absolutely not It just means that the smart money who had a bigger picture Perspective, you know a high time frame perspective We're just looking at buying the dollar, right because they understand that hopefully at this point Wherever well, wherever price has come down to it might not come down to fair value, but the you know Wherever it comes down to and that represents a deep pullback At some point the narrative Is probably going to change to say all right then well, are we focused more on gdp or are you focused focus on recession because at some point The pound yeah Right the pounds Gbp And the euro are also Going to do what with their with their interest rate hikes What are they going to do with their interest hikes eventually? no They're already hiking. So what are they going to what are they eventually going to do? Hold right and if two central banks are holding Then what then what are you going to be what divergence? What metric are you going to use to Determine whether you know you want to buy um The uh a certain currency So we've already said it like pretty much a hundred times gdp, right? That's exactly it. Who's in the recession and who's not? And so that when that moment comes in the dollar pulls back and everyone has the realization now, okay Well, you know, we we've made enough money on the on the interest rate narrative Right diverges narrative now europe and in the uk Are not hiking rates now all of a sudden you've got you know europe and The and in the uk right in a deep recession But the but the u.s. Now is not in a deep recession In fact, they're looking to come out of their recession sooner or they were there in a shallower recession So then now that becomes the divergence, right? That then pushes the dollar higher This pushes the dollar down based off of dovish divergent dovish Uh, you know a hawkish pivot also a dovish pivot, right for the dollar, right? But what reevaluates the dollar then becomes the narrative change between the economies Because who wants to buy The uk or into europe or europe or european economy When you've got the u.s. And that's what this is basically saying this this is our call. We're saying who's going to be the first to to to be the um to to get themselves out of um, you know a recession Who's best place to weather the storm? i'm just walking through What i you know what i see On a price chart and preparing i guess myself and you guys As to what the trade ideas are likely to be So i'm just going to read uh ken's comment ken says i think it's also going to come earlier Then we see due to investors seeing the data earlier and the market is forward thinking and will then price That in as they see it i think as soon as we see the core inflation is starting to come down And that's when it's absolutely so and that's really the trigger You know, we were talking about this last week fed, you know the fed pivot will be triggered really by inflation It has to be triggered by inflation. So ken's absolutely right. We could see it sooner. Maybe maybe not even though