 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this monthly webinar with me, Michael Hueson and my colleague Colin Cizinski in Canada. I'd like to welcome you and hopefully you'll be able to get the most out of what Colin and I are going to discuss today. First and foremost I need to get the small matter of the disclaimer out of the way. So just do that for regulatory and FCA purposes. I'm hoping Colin you can hear me loud and clear. Oh yeah, thank you, Michael. Okay, good stuff. And once we've got the obligatory and compulsory risk warnings out of the way, we can crack on. Colin and I sort of were chewing the fat beforehand as to what we'd start off with and obviously it's been a fairly busy couple of weeks from an equity markets point of view, a currency markets point of view. We had all that fun and games at the ECB press conference yesterday which was highly amusing though I have to say Mr Draghi looked absolutely terrified. I got sympathised with him. I think I would have as well. But I think today we're going to start with the commodity story because I think what we've seen over the past 24 hours is potential breakouts in crude oil and dollar Canada and Aussie dollar. So I think for the purposes of this particular conversation Colin do you want to start with crude oil, WTI perhaps? Absolutely, let's start with the church for WTI. We had a major breakout for WTI yesterday. It's been consolidating in a channel basically between 45 and 55 for the last couple of months. It did down below 45 a couple of times briefly down closer to about 42 but the primary channel was 45 to 55. If you look at this under 50 you have what's interestingly in addition to the sideways channel you had what's called a cup with handle base which is a technical pattern where you get a large rounded bottom and then you saw it peak up to 50 come back then you have a smaller rounded bottom with a higher low and that's not unusual but it is one of the more rare base building patterns and it's a pretty good one. Also as Michael is drawing in you had a nice ascending triangle of higher loads forming below $55. You've broken out of that yesterday and you're now holding above the $55 breakout point. So to these little slump back in crude oil is no big deal. It's not unusual. You had a 5% gain in WTI yesterday. It got a little overbought. You're seeing it had a 1.2% drop. It's now 1.2 so it's already coming back. You've got to retest. This is fairly normal and positive. I mean it hasn't been during this base building phase previously you'd have a 5% gain in WTI one day, 5% drop the next day. Now you're seeing it break out and hold which indicates increased underlying support for crude oil. So this is actually a very bullish pattern technically and even though the reasons for the huge drop from plus 100 to below 50 are having completely gone away. There are some signs that at least in the near term we may be getting a bit more of a rebound. So you could see this potentially move back up into this kind of 58-59 area and then the 60 round number. I did a 23% retracement on the whole move down from June kicks in around 58-60 so that's a potential initial objective as well. So probably we're looking here initially to move up into the high 50s around 60 based on the strength of this really, really nice technical breakout here and it is showing a nice turnaround in sentiment for crude oil. One thing I would say with respect to that is I think we really need to stay above this series of highs here in February and I think that's what we need to watch out for because I think here we've peaked out around here the potential tweezer top there. We could slip back towards this support line here around about $53.80. So that's certainly not outside the realms of possibility given how volatile the dollar is and I think it's also important to remember in the context that even though we've seen a breakout in WTI we haven't seen a breakout in Brent. When we look at oil prices I'm always a big believer in using Dow theory and I know that sometimes Brent and WTI don't correlate that well. In this case here what we've got is we've got a trend line from the June highs and it's coming in right on the highs in February, the twin highs that we saw in February-March and at the moment it's struggling to break through this $62 area on the Brent chart. So even though we did breakout higher certainly in the context of the range that we've been in on the four hour chart over the past couple of weeks we haven't broken out of the range highs and the February-March highs and we're also coming into trend line resistance from the June highs as well and the oscillator is starting to turn lower. So you're right in terms of the breakout in WTI but I'm a little bit cautious given the fact that Brent hasn't done the same thing. Yes absolutely and I agree with you. You want to see the two of them confirm each other. The other interesting thing for traders to note of course is that with this we're seeing a decided narrowing of the spread once again and the last couple of months the spread has been kind of running around $10 even. Now it's down, it looks to me like it's down under $7 or pretty close to $7 anyway so the spread has narrowed dramatically over the last few days. It's about $6, $7 between $6 and $7 but of course this is also me this is also quite interesting in the context of what it does to DollarCAD which is very very susceptible to move in oil prices and I think in the context of the WTI move the DollarCAD move that we've seen is actually quite instructive and if I can bring up the chart here you will see what I mean. This is a chart that I've been looking at since the beginning of this year simply on the basis of the fact that we've had a very very strong area of resistance through 128 and we've had very very strong support with 123.50. We've now broken down, we've broken below. Now there's a number of reasons for that. Obviously the rebounding crude oil is positive for the Canadian dollar and Colin you can expand upon why that is. Absolutely the rebound in Canada is a major oil exporter and the Canadian dollar has been following crude oil prices up and down in general over the last few months so this big rally in US DollarCAD coincided with the big crash in crude oil. The leveling and base building we saw in WTI we're seeing in this big huge top forming here in US DollarCAD and the breakdown yesterday of course coincides with the breakout in WTI. On top of all of this we also had some fairly positive comments out of the Bank of Canada yesterday. They had their latest meeting and once again they did not cut interest rates again. This time the street was expecting that and basically what they said was in their statement that they felt the impact of the crude oil crash had hit more quickly than they were anticipating but it wasn't any worse than they were anticipating either and they also went on to say that they think the economy will start to rebound in the second quarter and that the lower loony has helped the exports sector the exports were running at double the growth rate of the overall economy. So overall things were what they're looking for is a more broader return from help out by the lower Canadian dollar. So I think what you'll probably see here is you can get a nice advance saying in DollarCAD coming back to say $1.20 but I don't think you'll see it necessarily going back to $1.10 or par anytime soon. I think that's a long way off. But I do think we're seeing some of the pressure that had been on oil and had been on CAD starting to ease off a little bit and can help them to strengthen in the coming months. With regards to the Bank of Canada they are still basically we're talking as though the interest rate cut that they did do earlier this year was more of a one and done. They viewed it as an insurance policy to keep the broader economy on track but that they weren't seeing the whole thing fall apart. Okay, so basically the trade here on this particular pattern is in essence it looks to go short dollar Canada while below $1.20, $3.50, $6.00. So on the basis of that chart there, yes, the oscillator does look very, very oversold. It certainly looks even more oversold on the 4-hour chart but you can see quite clearly we've had a bit of a break lower. If we actually look on the 4-hour chart we can actually see the lows are around about $1.24. So I think we do need to be a little bit aware of a short squeeze. A short squeeze could happen and a short squeeze could go all the way back to $1.24 given the aggregation of lows over the past few weeks around that sort of area with an awful lot of congestion between $1.2350 and $1.24. So we do need to be aware of the prospect or possibility of a short squeeze given how long this pattern has taken to unfold. It started at the end of January. It's now completed mid-April so that's nearly three months which suggests that we need to project a target. It's a potential double-top, triple-top, whatever you want to call it but the measuring technique for a breakout is you basically take the distance between the highest point and the lowest point which in this case is around about 450 points give or take. Let's say 400 for ease, 128, 124. Project 400 points down from $1.2350 and you're looking at around about $1.1950. So over the course of the next two to three months you would expect for this pattern to unfold and move to $1.201950 over the course of the next three or four months for that particular pattern to unfold. And that's generally a fairly unique measuring technique when it comes to measuring a top formation and a breakout. Is there anything you want to add Colin or should we move on? No, that sounds fantastic. Let's move on and talk about the Aussie dollar next. Okay, so Aussie dollar and other commodity currency again is the prospect that we could well have seen a bit of a breakout here. This is a four-hour chart. Again, the oscillator is looking a little bit over ball but that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't go higher. So let's look at it. There's a double bottom base there. So we've got a double bottom base. Let's go daily first. Let's look at the daily. So we've got a nice little double bottom base here. You can see the candles trading in a nice little sideways pattern with the top of that around about 7740. We can see the 7740 level is quite important in the context of the lows through here, the highs there, the highs there. So it's worked as a fairly good pivot level in the past. So what does that mean going forward? Again, we can line up a trading plan. And the trading plan at the moment, by the looks of it, is we need to consolidate this move above 773040. And as long as we stay above 773040, then there's a good chance that we can move higher. And again, the technique is more or less the same. It's not the perfect double bottom. You can see that the lows aren't exactly identical. You've got 7533 there and you've got around about 754050 there. So again, you're talking about 150-200 points and move higher towards this trend line that I've drawn in here. And I don't know why I've drawn that in, but let's look at the daily chart. Again, it's from the October highs. So we are approaching a little bit of a potential reversal pattern here. And we've then got these series of highs through March, which could well prompt a breakout from this particular level here higher. But this line here is probably going to be a fairly strong line. So there's certainly something to be aware of in the short to medium term. So anything you want to add to that, Colin? Yeah, I just wanted to highlight that one of the things that propelled the breakout overnight was that the Australian jobs report came out and it was pretty strong. They showed a job growth in the 30,000 range. Most of that was full-time, which was also quite encouraging. And their unemployment rate fell to 6.1%. So you are seeing a breakout on good news, so the two of them are reinforcing each other. Also the participation rate went up by the same amount. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.3 to 6.1, 0.2%. And the participation rate went up 0.2%. So it was proper jobs growth. Because the participation rate went up, the number of people in work went up, and the unemployment rate came down. That doesn't always happen like that. And it certainly doesn't work that way in the US. Usually if the participation, usually if the unemployment rate drops, so does the unemployment rate, which is not always a good indicator because it can be misleading. Another reason I think for the strength of the commodity currencies is a little bit of US dollar weakness. I know this is something that you and I have disagreed on, Colin, over the course of the last few months. The timing or otherwise of a US Federal Reserve rate rise. Yesterday's economic data, industrial production, disappointing. Philadelphia said it's just come out as we've been on air and it's actually come out better than expected because the empire manufacturing was disappointing yesterday. The Bayes book was disappointing. Housing starts today were disappointing. And what we're seeing at the moment I think, whether you believe it's weather related or not, is the fact is the US economy does appear to be experiencing a little bit of a soft patch. Now you can debate what the reasons for that are. Obviously the strong dollar is probably one part of that, but it certainly feeds into a narrative that potentially we could see the Fed hold off on a rate rise. And obviously I've said in previous webinars that I don't think we'll see a Fed rate rise this year and none of the data that I've seen so far has made me change my mind on that. Whereas you Colin, I think you're sort of pushing the timing out slightly, aren't you? That's correct. When I was looking at the combination of the slowing data we've had for March, whether it's weather related or not. And more importantly to me was that in the March, the Fed meeting that the members cut their projections, I don't see how you can go raising interest rates when you're cutting your GDP and inflation and Fed funds projections. So to be fair, the average kind of went from a little bit above 1% down to around 0.6, 0.7%. So what that made me think was okay, fine. By the end of the year, instead of looking at three rate hikes, you're probably looking now at two, which changes the scenario to you. You could go one in September, one in December, one in October, one in December. So there's still the possibility out there that if things come around later in the year that they could still put in a hike or two by the end, like when they started tapering a few years back where they snuck it in right in December just before Chairman Bernanke retired, just to get it in by the end of the year. So that's possibility still out there. I do think June is looking pretty unlikely now because at a minimum now you've got to wait and see all the April data to come out with and answer the question. Was March or one off? Was it an end of quarter adjustment? Was it the weather? Or was, as Michael's suggesting perhaps, the beginning of a bit of a soft patch in the economy. Now we'll look at last year, and actually I guess that's another thing to think about as we come into Q2 in particular on the year-over-year data. Last year we had the huge weather disruptions in Q1 and then a massive rebound in Q2. And so now the question will be, are we going to see that kind of lift again this year or not? What is the momentum out there in the States? And the other thing you mentioned, Michael, about the U.S. dollar, that's particularly important now as we move into earning season and explains in a lot of ways why we haven't seen the U.S. indices follow the European and the nature Pacific markets higher, is we're starting to see in some of the early earnings reports that the higher U.S. dollar is a drag on corporate earnings. We saw, even though Netflix people responded to the strong subscriber growth, they had a huge miss on earnings on foreign exchange. And big tech, a lot of big tech companies have been warning on the negative impact of the higher U.S. dollar on their earnings. So that's something that we could see play out over the course of earnings season. Just looking back to the Fed for a second, one of the reasons why I think that they need to do something and whether it's one increase or a couple of increases is that they've kind of played themselves out. They've done multiple rounds of quantitative easing. Interest rates are almost at zero and they're kind of at a point where they need to reload. They need to give themselves some tools that they can work with for when the next crisis hits. I go back to the Bank of Canada, did a couple of interest rate increases back in 2010, which came in handy when the oil price crashed last fall and gave them the room to actually put through an interest rate cut and room for a second one if they needed down the road. Whereas the Fed has kind of painted themselves into a corner, I think they have to do something and whether it's raising interest rates, I'm going to leave it there because Michael, I think this is a good point to go to your theory which I think is really interesting. Yeah, I mean the Fed hasn't raised rates in 10 years and to be quite honest, I think given what we know now, it would be very, very unwise to do so given the experience the European Central Bank had in 2008 and 2011 when they raised rates to deal with an inflationary threat that subsequently was not there. And interest rates are a very blunt tool to basically try and control monetary policy expectations. Now we've seen the Fed, when the financial crisis hit in 2009, they cut rates to zero. What they also did was they embarked on a QE program, three QE programs to be precise, between 2009 and the end of the last QE program, which was at the end of 2013. If you want to send a message to the market without tying yourself up in knots, you've got a balance sheet that is worth $4 trillion. Why not start to shrink that balance sheet? What do you essentially do is you stop reinvesting the proceeds of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bonds that are maturing or you sell them back into the market. That in itself increases the supply of bonds and to a certain extent it also pushes the yield curve up. That in itself gives you a little bit of a tightening bias to monetary policy. What it also does is you don't hold yourself a hostage to fortune by interest rates because essentially if it goes wrong, you then don't have to reverse the interest rate cut. All you do is you slow down your sales of bonds or you stop them or you reverse them. It's much more subtle and it's a lot less crude. Interest rates can either go up or they can go down with the size of the balance sheet and the amount of bonds and treasuries on your balance sheet. You can adjust them up and you can adjust them down and it's a much more elegant way of doing it. I think when we're looking at what the Fed's going to do later this year, I think what we need to look at is the language. When we hear policymakers saying they want to normalise monetary policy, don't automatically assume that means raising rates. It could just mean that they're going to start looking, selling off some of their bond portfolio and that in itself could tighten rates. Now I think it's a much more credible response than the blunt tool of jacking up the Fed funds rate. Yes, I agree with you and if I could add to that, Michael, this is similar to the strategy that the European ECB did over the course of the last two years. In 2012 they had their first LTROs where they had to stabilise everything during the initial round of bailouts and crises and then they had those, they were just doing the weekly repayments and running it back down and they ran a trillion euros back down off that over the course of two years in what I called the stealth taper. Then what we're seeing with the new QE program is basically just putting all that back into the market again. It gave them the flexibility and a quiet, steady way to then be able to act again when they needed to. I agree with you, I think that would be, that to me makes a lot more sense for the Fed to do than raise interest rates. I agree with you on that. Okay, so what does this leave us with respect to euro-dollar? At the moment everyone is still looking to push euro-dollar quite a bit lower. I think it's starting to build up a bit of a base. Certainly if we look at the four hour chart it's probably not as obvious, but if we look at, say for example, the monthly chart here, we've had a precipitous decline of the peaks just below 140 in 2014. We've got the all-time lows back in 2000, at 82.30, 0.823 is zero. We've got the peaks at 160.37 in 2008 and we've got this 105 level here, which I've outlined which basically was the lows all the way back in March 2003, 105.02. Now, we haven't yet closed, we haven't posted a monthly close below 105 and I think that for me is very, very significant. Look at how oversold the oscillator is. Now, I don't want you to read too much into that because oscillators can remain oversold for a lot longer than your eye can stay solvent. So don't read too much into that, but certainly in the context of this candle here, we've pushed lower, but it's quite a long, lower shadow on that March candle there, which suggests that the down move is starting to get a little bit tired, certainly in the short to medium term. So we've certainly got potential for a rebound, but what we really need to do is we need to try and push and close below 105 and at the moment that doesn't appear to be, or it doesn't appear to be getting much traction. That being said, we've had number of very disappointing US data items come out and the euro hasn't gone up. So that is a worry, but if we look at this weekly candle chart here, we've had a strong down move and then with this candle here, it does appear to suggest that the market is getting a little bit nervous of being short. It's not quite a bullish engulfing week, but it's not far off it. This down move here that we saw after non-farm payrolls failed to push us through 110, has obviously brought us back lower again, but what we haven't seen is we haven't taken out the previous lows around 105 and at 104.60. So again, the upside bias or the susceptibility to a rebound is still there. We're at the moment trying to push through 107, so I'm going to take it down even further and this is how I break down my charts to try and get a gauge of where we're going to go next. So again, we've had a whole succession of down days and now we look as if we could have three successive updates. Look at yesterday's candle. We've tried to go lower and we've failed to take out the previous days lows and each successive low has been higher than the previous low. So that suggests to me that the market while it's oscillating wildly in the context of the daily moves, it's not taking out the previous days low, which suggests to me that the market is reluctant to get overly short. Now obviously that could well change over the next day or so. We're coming up to the weekend. I think people generally always get a little bit worried about the weekend, what with Greece and everything else and the possibility of a Grexit. I think Greece will default eventually. It's really all a matter of timing. It could be this weekend. It could be next weekend. It could be next month. I don't think it will be next year, but it will certainly be sometime in the next two months because I don't think the discussion with respect to Greece is sustainable. Putting that to one side, we can see from here that the lows are getting higher and the highs are also starting to get a little bit higher. So momentum does appear to be slowly building for another test higher towards these three peaks here around 110. We had three attempts, one, two, three. We've come back down. We're now trying to test back through 107.50. We need to get through 107.60, 108. And if we get through 108, then I think we're going to have another crack at 110. It certainly does appear to be the case that we're starting to build up a base. Certainly the candles do appear to suggest that, but for some reason the market continues to remain very volatile. But until such times as we take out 105, I'm very reluctant to be aggressively short euro-dollar. That's something I kind of point into the question, Michael. Yeah. First of all, this 105 is not quite perfect yet, but that is starting to look like a double bottom, which is encouraging. And certainly we've seen a lot of double bottoms, double tops, triple bottoms, triple tops across a number of markets in recent weeks. So that is starting to become a pattern that's playing itself out across a number of asset classes. But I guess the question is, when we go to the thing about Grexit, do we think the market has priced this in already? I mean, it's certainly been talked about enough over the last few weeks, and the way we've seen the euro come down. Some of that was a stronger dollar. But still, I've asked myself, how much of a Grexit been priced in already? And my second thought is whether this is a domino, I don't think that necessarily a domino effect is priced in, but would you actually get one? Yeah. I think that's the million-euro question. I think the effect will probably be felt more in the bond market than it would be in the currency market. If there was a Grexit, basically it would undermine the perception that the euro is irreversible. So then it would be a question of who's next in the firing line. Now at the moment, I don't think there's any prospects that we're close to another, what I would call a large-scale break-up of the euro by no means are we near that. But I think certainly in the context of the irreversibility of the euro, it would do an enormous amount of damage. And I think three or four years time, suddenly Greece starts to turn itself around and Europe is still stagnating, well then. So the linkage is in the banking system. The losses to Germany because of the ELA target to the amount of money that's been basically loaned to the Greeks. The rest of Europe may not get back. There will be taxpayer losses, which could be politically toxic for the German government. Yeah, you can say that you've insulated yourself against them, but there will be losses. And I don't think you can underestimate, we don't really know where we are. A good part of the European bond market is negative yields. So again, you've got the uncertainty principle there. So I think it's difficult to establish whether it is priced in or not. But don't underestimate the capacity for volatility. I agree with that. I think you could see if anything on any kind of an event, you could see some really big moves. And potentially that could be big moves in both directions until people figure out what the heck is really going on. Yeah, and I think that's probably the key takeaway more than anything else. So I mean, that's the euro. Before Colin, I'm going to move on to the pound against the dollar now, but I would throw this open to you guys who are listening. Is there anything that you guys want Colin and myself to cover that we haven't covered already? If there is, please send us a message over the chat system and we'll cover it. Otherwise, I'm going to move on to the pound against the dollar, particularly as this will be the last one of these we do before the election, which is looking to be a particularly interesting lead up over the course of the next two to three weeks. Certainly the pound against the dollar. Again, we've got to, you know, I don't see too much upside in the pound against the dollar for the time being. Certainly there's a bit of a barrier all the way through here around about 150 every time we try to push through that. We've come straight back off again, and I think we can draw that through here, 149.94 there. Let me just extend that backwards like so. So we can see from this cable chart here, pretty similar story in the context of the euro dollar. It's, you know, the declines that we've seen thus far have largely been as a result of the stronger dollar. It's been less about sterling weakness because if you actually look at the pound's performance against the euro, it's been particularly good. So those of you who want to go on holiday to Spain or somewhere like that, you know, getting 138, whereas beforehand you're getting around about 120. So from that perspective, the pound is quite strong, but the big point I think to look at is again here, we've got a very, very strong reaction of 146, which cleared out a lot of long positions just above there. I've got a bit of a reversal. Once again we've got on this daily chart higher lows and higher highs, but we need to clear this level here, 150. Now this big candle here, you won't be surprised to know that this happened in the wake of the FOMC meeting, the Fed meeting in March when the Fed dropped its patience language, and when it drops its patience language, it then downgraded its growth and inflation forecast and that's what sent the dollar lower and the pound higher. But what's interesting to know, it didn't close above 150. So for me the 150 level is the line in the sand for me on the upside. If we can sustain the move back above 150, we certainly could get a run towards 152. Otherwise, I think what we've got here at the moment is support around 147.40, resistance at 150, and support 145.50. Anything to add Colin? Because I've just been asked to do the UK 100. So unless you want to move on to something else, I will move on to that. No, that's great. Let's move on to stocks. Okay, so let's look at the UK 100. We've consolidated and moved above the 7000 level, and I think I covered this in my video this week, but it still remains as true now as it was then. If we look at a long-term chart here, we can see that 6,980, 6,950, that was really the big, big level on the top side. It was these series of highs through February and March, held quite nicely. We did briefly pop above it in mid-March before coming all the way back down to test the 200-day moving average, which we bounced off quite nicely. Since then, we've gone through 6,980 again. We've sustained the move above 7000, and we've sustained it fairly comfortably. So I think there's potential for further upside in the UK 100, but that doesn't rule out a move back here to around about 7000. As long as we stay above 7000, then I think there's potential for a move to 7200 and potentially higher. I think it's a similar sort of story in all the other indexes as well, particularly in Europe. What we don't want to see, I think, with respect to European markets is a strong rebound in the euro, because if we get a strong rebound in the euro, that could push European markets lower. I don't think it's been any coincidence that at the time the euro has been weakening over the course of the last four months, European markets have outperformed. Every time we've had a rebound in the euro, the DAX in particular has pushed lower. So a stronger euro is potentially going to weigh on the DAX and other broader European markets. So for the purposes of this particular chart here, we can see for the moment in the short term through here, around about 7000 and 40, there's going to be an area of support. And we look as if we're probably going to test that over the course of the next day or so. If we drop down to around about 6,980, I wouldn't be surprised. But overall, I'm not bearish on the UK 100 quite yet, but I would be concerned if today we dropped below this low here, which is 7,056, which were only about nine points above. Why would I be concerned about that? Because basically what we've done is we've made a fresh high and if we then close below yesterday's low, that would be a key reversal day. And a key reversal day is potentially bearish. And as such, if we post the key reversal day today, then we'll probably track lower towards 6,980. So keep an eye on the close today. Ladies and gentlemen, on the UK 100, if we close below yesterday's lows, then that could potentially be bearish for a short term move lower. On that, Michael, could you please pull up the Dow chart? I'd like to do a bit of a contrast here. Sure. The Dow, not the S&P. Either one's fine. Let's do the S&P. Or the Dow's fine. No, that's all right. I've got the Dow there. Actually, I think the Dow chart's better because I've already drawn a little sloping line in. Yeah, so one thing I just wanted to mention here over the last, say, since the beginning of March is we've seen a number of major world indices break out to new highs. So we had new highs in the Dax. We've had new highs in the FTSE. We had new highs in the Hong Kong, Japan have just exploded to the upside. The straits has broken out to a new high. Everywhere except North America is the one play in Australia where they're stuck at 6,000. But US in particular, you do have lower highs here, but you're almost looking at a bit of a triple top here. You've gone sideways. Of course, over the last couple of years, you've had a massive rally in the Dow. And I just wanted to mention this is what I'm talking about about the impact of the higher dollar. It's not just the higher dollar in and of itself, but more importantly, the impact on corporate earnings. We can see every time the Dow tries to push higher. This is even with the sentiment changing sentiment now that the Fed is likely to back away from a June lift-off for rates into later in the year. And as you suggested, perhaps do something else entirely. Previously, anything that had suggested that the Fed may not be as hawkish had been enough to drive markets higher and now it's not. And I think that's because we're starting to see this corporate earnings effect starting to kick in and drag on US stocks. Yeah, and I think that's the key. I think what the Fed does over the next few months, all I think have a significant impact on what US markets do. And I think that really partially explains why we've not really gone anywhere since the beginning of this year when the S&P at the beginning of 2015 was trading roughly around 2060, and now we're slightly above that. But we're certainly nowhere near. We've seen nowhere near the gains in the S&P that we've seen in the DAX, the Italian market, or the French market. And we can see that borne out in this particular chart. Here, ladies and gentlemen, we're seeing a bit of an aggressive sell-off in the DAX. And actually, looking at this chart here, you can see what I mean by just because an oscillator is overbore doesn't mean the market can't carry on going up. We've potentially got a little bit of a breakout coming along here, though I probably need to redraw that trend line from the lows ever so slightly because of this here. So let me just do that. But there does appear to be some evidence that maybe the market could be gearing up for a bit of a move lower. We've broken below the previous highs at 12,220 after making a brand new high. Let's see what the weekly candle chart looks like. Well, that's going to be interesting, depending on where we close this week. Could that potentially be a bearish engulfing week? It's looking like it, isn't it? It is. I mean, we've got a tweezer top. The highs, the two-week highs are exactly identical. Let's look at that there. We've got 12,392. And 12,392, give or take, rounding up or down. So you've definitely got a tweezer top there. Certainly on the daily... If you had 12 in that trend line, you'd look pretty ugly. Yeah. So it's definitely worth keeping an eye on the weekly close on the DAX. Let's see what other European markets look like because I think one thing I have noticed is the French market has actually outperformed the DAX this month. It's actually continued to kick on. But you can see there, it's been much less volatile, certainly significant area of support around 5,200. But then when you actually look at the big history on the French market, it's not hard to see why. We're well below the 2007 peaks and the 2000 peaks. So the French market is well below its all-time highs, whereas the DAX is at its all-time highs. So sometimes it's not as, what I would say, coordinated as it could be. One thing I would say is that the Spanish market is also showing signs of exhaustion on the daily charts. And we can see that borne out in this market here. And I think it's quite interesting that the two best performing economies in Europe, Spain and Germany, the stock markets, look as if they're about to start rolling over. You look at the bearish candle here. It's not a bearish engulfing pattern. And the reason for that is because the candle here is exactly the same color. They need to be opposite colors. And here what you've got is a little bit of a rollover. Let's see what it looks like on the weekly chart. Again, potentially bearish, a brand new high. If we closed below the previous week's high, that could potentially be bearish. And we could trickle down back towards this gap that we saw four weeks ago when we pushed higher at the end or in the beginning, in the middle of March, February-March. So worth keeping an eye on the Spanish Ibex and the German DAX because I think if those two markets roll over, it could drag on the rest of Europe's markets, namely France and Italy. Okay, well, it's 1542. Unless anyone else wants us to cover anything else, I'm going to wrap things up now. If any one of you wants to listen to this webinar back, we'll be posting it on YouTube and you can listen to it back. Otherwise, I'd just like to thank you all for listening today. Hopefully you've got something out of what Colin and I were talking about. Now, if you do have any questions on any of the things that we've discussed today, please feel free to tweet us. I'm at M.Husen underscore CMC. And Colin is at C.Cizinski underscore CMC. Otherwise, I'd like to thank you all for listening. And I hope you can join us at the same time next month. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. And thanks, Michael. This was great. Cheers. Thanks, Colin.