 Good day, fellow investors. Welcome to the stock market news where we analyze the long-term situation and impact of what's going on onto your investments. Today, we're going to discuss the possible impact of the coronavirus to the global economy, to your investments. We're going to look at the situation in order to give you a clear risk and reward perspective that you can apply onto your portfolio. My name is Sven Karlin. I'm an independent stock market researcher and investor with a fundamental value investing long-term perspective on markets. If those words click with you, please subscribe to this channel and click that notification bell so that you get notified when there is a video that gives you value for your portfolio. On the content overview of the coronavirus, what's going on? What are the trends? How does it impact investing and the economy the Chinese economy, copper oil and all those repercussions in the system? How to analyze the risk and reward of potential investments and your current investments? Let's start. Coronavirus, we all know, outbreak January, grow perhaps even peak for now. It is like the SARS, the MERS, those common colds that got a little bit heavy. A lot of people died already, so my condolences to all the families, to all those that knew those people, especially in China and the few cases outside of China. Now it's still only in China, the big epicentrum in Wuhan, Hubei province, and okay, it's not really spreading that fast across the globe, which is fortunate because it is really important because people are really dying, no matter how much we can joke about it. The last data that I watched, when I started preparing this, this was the 5th of February, so a few days ago, and there were 25,000 cases, 4,000 new cases, but then the recent news that I got this morning from the Wall Street Journal, so we see that growth of confirmed cases is declining, so it's not really an exponential spread, and the number of cases is, let's say, flattening out after a month of very, very strong growth. It might also be the case that we have seen peak coronavirus, however it always remains an uncertainty. A lot of people have died, there are still new cases, and there are still a lot of news reports that scare or do not scare the market. We'll see later on the market impact, which has eased out, but you never know. Something happening again, like in Wuhan, somewhere in the United States, Europe, Australia, somewhere else, would then again spark market reactions, but then we'll have to see how it impacts fundamentals. Now, on the market reaction, we have seen first panic, and after the market did really well 2019 especially, we have seen perhaps it was justification for selling, let's sell the market tanked a little bit, but then it recovered and went again over new highs, as the coronavirus didn't blow out globally and exponentially, but it's easing out, we have seen the growth stopping down and let's say stabilizing, so the market isn't panicking that much anymore, but there are few repercussions that will impact it and the market in China is still down, so it was hit, but when you look at it from a one-year perspective, it's still there, it isn't a real significant impact. If you're watching the stock market moves over one month, two months, you get crazy, so forget about those. You look at over the long term, the market really didn't get such a hit. Individual stocks related to traveling oil, those are getting hammered and that's somewhere you can look for investments or for better risk reward. So, we have uncertainty when it comes to the coronavirus, we don't know what will happen, but what are the certainties? One certainty is that oil prices have declined 20%. As less demand for all, we have this now notion with Tesla exploding, so Tesla and Elon Musk have succeeded in what they wanted, are succeeding. On the other hand, oil is getting hammered because if Tesla succeeds, the other counterpart is oil and we have seen oil prices go down, demand from China slowing down because of all the quarantines, lower demand, lower traffic, lower aviation, lower everything, so oil is really being hit. That's a certainty and now where is the market impact? This impact will be seen now, but also in three, six months down the road, some companies report only twice in a year, you will see the lower oil prices coming out into financial statements and that's something you have to think, okay, whatever is going on is not just impacting the stock market now, will also impact fundamentals down the road and then you have to see, okay, how will that impact what's going on over the short term and the long term and then you have to see where are the investment opportunities for you. Another thing is copper, that was also severely hit over the last month, 40% of global copper demand comes from China. If China slows down, then it will have repercussions on copper, create opportunities but also risks, that's always like that. When we look at what's going on in China, slowing down the last few weeks will have an impact on the Chinese economy. It will slow down and that was the fear over the last five years for the market, for the global economy, the biggest fear was always the China will slow down and this is the black swan perhaps, the triggers that slowing down but then again if it stabilizes when China recovers it will again go back up perhaps at a higher growth rate. So never expect stability when it comes to investing the economy, whatever. It will always be volatile and that volatility gives you opportunities. Some see it as a risk, I see it as an opportunity. Another certainty, airlines have cut flights, they are saving on those flights so those that were profitable will lose money, those that were unprofitable will save money, all prices are down so they are cutting the flights but also it will be cheaper for them to fly as their hedge into the next years, the oil prices so some airlines that are not related might even benefit because all prices go down. So there is an impact, you just have to objectively see how that impact fits your investments or the investments you are attracted to and then the best way to see how something fits you is to look at real fundamentals. There are companies, you look at the cost of what they are producing against the price, against the probable long-term price or something. In this case just take oil as an example, oil is down now but you have companies that wherever the price of oil is remain very profitable and then you have risky companies that if oil prices go down companies become worthless. California resources, if oil prices go below a certain age it's worthless especially given the debt. However on the other hand Shell for the next eight years they will be pumping oil profitably and if oil prices go up they will be making more money but the stock price is much less volatile so much less risky and then you have to see okay what fits best my portfolio, something crazy risk, I can lose everything but the upside is 10 times like California resources or Shell okay it can go down 20, 30, 40 percent but it can go maximally up I don't know 50, 100 percent depending on oil prices and then you have a dividend alongside that. Just an example not a recommendation here I'll be analyzing probably all stocks down the road so please again subscribe, click that notification bell, leave a comment below what stocks do you want to see analyzed I will the more comments there are I will rank them over time and then really try to do research on those and make videos to give value to you. On Sunday also there will be free interesting stocks analyzed and I'll give my best to analyze some stock every Sunday here on the video as I share my research and my learning path to become a better and better investor over time I always think one can get always better and then a long-term perspective what is certain look at the long-term charts of the scp 500 of the shangai index the current coronavirus is just a blip on that not even seen but what is the clear trend the clean clear trend is up because we are businesses economies growth economies developing world technologies improving everything is getting better and therefore stocks the value of those stocks go up plus everybody's printing so much money the value of money goes down so that is the fundamental and the value of assets goes up that's fundamentals however you have to see okay where we are now in the ups and downs focusing trying to time the market betting on will the coronavirus have a global economic impact and paralyze everything or not nobody knows probably not probably not big chance it will not it will stabilize and then ease out like SARS and MERS but if it happens you have to have your portfolio ready if it doesn't happen you have to have your portfolio ready so you have to think like okay whatever happens I'm good and you must not fall prey to the news because this was a piece of information that impacts the market and human psychology but it's not relevant for the fundamentals a man dies and lying on the street in Wuhan and then in the text they say they don't know forum what died but this picture went all over the world stocks went down and this picture had an impact but it's not a fundamental pictures we have seen the fundamentals the analysis a chart is a fundamental picture that gives you data so really check your data and your resources don't fall prey to mass media outlets and that's something very important to understand and analyze when it comes to investing and as I said you have to find something that whatever happens it works well for you so what always works when it comes to investing there are companies that in bad times global paralysis six months of quarantine or whatever will make much less money when things turn good will make much more money so those companies that don't go bankrupt whatever happens are buys and as things get worse if things get worse you buy more you average in you can never time the bottom because we don't know whether there will be a new coronavirus outbreak as I said I don't know where somewhere in the United States for example or not and that's the uncertainty when it comes to the market blacks ones blacks ones will always impact the market however what you can look at is your portfolio low risk high reward whatever happens I'm good if things turn out well I'm really good and that's how you have to think about your portfolio investments and see how you're positioned for what's going on over the long term if you have good businesses the compounding will improve will do well and therefore you have to find those businesses and if you find businesses that will do bad if things get bad then you have to put them into a portfolio perspective that it doesn't impact your long term well or that is a risk reward that you can take and actually improves your long-term compounding of the portfolio company that got hit because of the coronavirus and will get hit alongside airlines is starbucks because of the big market in china people are not drinking coffee not going to work so they will certainly get hit but you have to see okay when this passes is this an opportunity or not how does this fit your investment style and whether is this a company you want to own are already owning or you wish to add it's very likely everything will smoothen out will be better in the future over the next five ten years so this might be another opportunity to invest if it goes lower you should be happier because then you get an even better opportunity to invest into what can be a great business for your portfolio so businesses will continue to grow even if now we have a contraction which is normal which is cyclical the world is cyclical and not predictable so that's something you have to take into account but focus on fundamentals whatever happens you do well that makes life that makes investing life really really easy i don't know what will happen with the coronavirus i'm okay with it i sleep well i hope it doesn't get me again my condolences to all those that were hit and let's hope that it slows down at and it let's say really doesn't affect lives anymore and that this situation comes back to normal we will see but as investors we have to be prepared for anything thank you for watching looking forward to your comments i'll see you on sunday with a video on stock analysis very interesting even related to the corona virus i'll see you in the next video