 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Hi folks, Basel Chapman here, sitting in for the hour of Larry Pezzavento. Larry, I believe, is not able to make it. I was away last week. There's just a ton that I was wanting to do in my show, the Tiger Technicians Hour. Haven't had a chance to do it. Let's just go straight into the TLT look. The TLT, which is the bonds, the iShares 20th Treasury Bond ETF at 118.48 up $1.09. This is going to be very interesting because there's been a rally in the bonds from the low that was made and did I not type that in? I thought I had. Let's just type it in right now. And that was the low that was made on the June the, I think it was the 14th or the 17th. So there you go. Yeah, the 16th actually at 108.12. Let me just type that in so I don't have to keep doing this 102.127. That was June 617, I think it was, whatever it is, 17. It's close, mid June. Okay. And then it ran up 16 points. This is really good. And look what it does, the TNX, TNX.x. There we go. The TNX has obviously come down. It's gone to leg E to the downside on the Chapman Wave methodology, D. And here's your E with a little doji candle. But the MACD is still very weak. The stochastic is at 29% still very weak. The 9 is still way under the 14 and I've been talking about this for a while. In fact, let me do this. I haven't had a chance to do it and I'll do it right now. I'm going to go to my triple yield chart that I show subscribers to my opening call every weekend when I do my video overview for about 45 minutes to an hour. And that shows the 30 year, which is white yield, the TYX, the TNX, which is the brown 10 year yield, 10 year T-node yield. And then the five year T-node yield is a cyan one, F of VX. And that went above the 30 year. A couple of weeks ago, it was incredible when you see the chart. It's just like a beautiful U shaped pattern that I talk about all the time. Went to a leg F and then a peak F of 34.72. 3.472 in the 30 year. Look at that. Look at that cyan. That is even higher than the 30 year. And now look what we're doing. We're looking at the brown. The 10 year is below the five year and the five years below the 30 year. So there's obviously an inversion. But you've got yields coming down. What has that done? It said that the Philadelphia housing index, HGX index, went to a low, low after going into a rectangle formation, plunges down. I forgot to type that in. Maybe I'll type that in right now because I have the upside at 538. Way back in May or June of 2021. So let's just put that in right here. We went to 240, 331.20. So 331.20. And look what's happened subsequent to that. Let me just make that a color that we can actually read. We've got a move to the 390s. That's a 60 point. That's a 20 percent. It's a really nice move in the Philadelphia housing index. And of course there's always bad news about housing these days. And it's pulling back to days down to $69 at 396. But this is a really nice move corresponding to the decline. Look, the weekly decline in the years, the triple yield chart. That's the 30, the 10, and the five years have been pulling back. And look what's happened then. Would the ice shares global timber and forestry ETF held the 200 period exponential moving average? Did you even need the 200 period moving average? No, not since that almost year long sideways move that was testing the breakout to the upside until it became incredible support. And then you just, it was gone. You didn't even have to think 200 period moving average until five, six months ago when it started to get close and then it tagged it. And now it's moving away from it. Why do I make a big deal? Because wood, very much like high grade copper, is an international economic benchmark. So what we're looking at here is if I go to the HGX, HGX right here, I said HGX, I meant HG, that's copper. HGX is the Philadelphia Housing Index. So HG, HG is the way I get the continuous contract, made a peak D in the daily chart at the 200 period exponential moving average. How important is this orange line? This is how important it is. It goes like a sine wave over and above and then under and then it comes back. And then it gets repelled sharply and goes from the 440s down to the most recent low in the continuous contract, doji candle low of 3.1315. And now it's in all egg B. So it's only a counter-trend rally. So this is, I've had questions for the past two weeks saying exactly where are we? And my contention is, and it has been since November, December of last year, that if you consider every single sector, we have been in recessions. Look, copper has been in a recession since it made that high back in March at 5.062 on the continuous contract. I wonder if it's still there, 5.066. So at 5.066 and look what's happened. It's got more than a one-to-one to the downside and that's just telling you that the general economy is in a malaise. Sectors are probably separated in the same way. And even within that you get stocks that are separated. So there's been a rotational sector recession. If you go to Sintas, I should have done this in my show, the Tiger Technicians, a few minutes ago, that's been in a recession since the December, 2021 high at 461 because it plunged all the way down to the 340s. Now it's at a good rebound. Look, if Sintas Corporation, overalls, uniforms, rentals, is now showing resiliency and independent strength, it's saying it's got one of those spikes to the upside that it's done before and then failed and now the 200-period moving average of 389 can hold. CTAS is a symbol training of $1.50 down at 395.18. How it holds the 389 level or breaks to the upside is going to be really important in August to tell us about whether the recession is rotating through a corrective period that says some sectors, and I'm going to mention this now, even though I'm a little nervous about mentioning it but I'm not going to mention it. So, if you look at the two-way conductors at 223.60 up down at $1.75, look at that big move. That's been in a double top from November 318 to 318 in January after pulling back to the 280s. Double top, beautiful double top formation and it comes, I mean I was talking about this, 380s of the previous high, 318.82 in November, January is the 318.69, it's unbelievable and then it drops down to 189, trading now at 223. This rally is really important. I'll be back in a moment. Baselchap is sitting in for the hour of Larry, President, back home in Peru. Time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. 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My show here is the Tiger Technicians Hour, 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock Eastern Time before Larry's. Larry's not able to make it today because I was away all last week. I did my show. I didn't have a chance to do everything that I wanted. I said I'll use this opportunity. So we're looking at the estimations with the semiconductors. This has been a really nice rally from 189 to the high in the 230s just four days ago. It's pulling back. It's holding okay. You need to see it. I don't want to get into the fundamentals or anything. I don't fully understand. I'm sure that anybody actually fully understands it, but I think there have been selective. When you think about a year and a half of the shortage of the chips, by now there has to be some kind of a catch-up in certain sectors and some manufacturers are going to benefit. Will the automobiles? We just don't know yet, but at some point I talked about when everything comes on track, there should be a glut, but we're also talking about the new chips I'm told are far superior. They always leapfrog the previous generation, and that means that they might be able to keep prices instead of having a commoditization where prices just drop lower and lower and lower. Maybe they can stabilize it, but it's really important that the semiconductors and the semiconductor weekly chart in particular attempts by the first to second week of August. Actually, you know what? I'd say by the end of next week, there has to be at least an attempt to get to the 238, 242 level, and that'll be a test of this down channel. Remember, a channel is where you take two trend lines where you've got outer points that can give you the declining highs, and then the lower points you like them to match, they don't have to, but the majority of the prices should match so that you can get a channel, and a channel is parallel lines. Within that, I always put in the chat wave inside track buy zone or sell zone, and in this particular instance, it went right down to it at 189.94, it went right to that line in the weekly chart. The MACD has finally, as we're speaking, it's up 0.30, the histogram has turned positive. It hasn't done that since it turned negative back in January when the 318 area, the stochastics improved a lot. It's at 38% in the weekly. That's not great, but 88% in the daily, that's really good, and the on balance volume is very weak in the weekly chart. Monthly chart you can't even talk about because we have to wait for the month to finish on Friday, but if there is a test of this resistance as we get into August, if there's a push into the 242 area on a closing basis, that says, you know what, perhaps we are seeing some improvement in a really important area of the semiconductors. All right, enough with that. Let's go to the TLT, because the TLT is the bonds, and what I was showing before is that from my eye perspective, in the huge cup formation, we have pulled back, and we could be making a cup and a handle formation here from the 3472 level, 3.472% in the 30-year weekly chart, and that says that they could... You see the rotation that's going on? You see this rectangle, which is like a propeller shaft, and the pullback that is more than a one-to-one to the downside, holding the 200-period moving average with the iShares global timber and forest area. If there is a move in this particular area, wood, this is global, into the 76 right now, if it even touches 80, that's going to be a good sign, shorter term, even though it's a weekly chart. And even with all the bad news, I anticipate that the housing sector has a much more serious problem. It has not so much to do with interest rates. That's just one of the factors. But overall, I mean, I mentioned yesterday, my wife and I were in Manhattan last week. We've not spent time in Manhattan because whenever we got a Brooklyn to visit my family and grandkids, we're always with them, and we're only going very briefly into Manhattan. This is the first time we actually took time. I wanted to do that because forever, I've always followed Manhattan for skyscrapers. I spoke about the skyscraper theory that I thought was mine, but it wasn't. The Empire State Building was built in, and the papers were passed. I did a whole webinar once on Goldman Sachs and Empire State Building, everything. Papers were passed summer of 1929. The top at 386 was made in the Dow. The long weekend, September, they're going to September the 3rd. The Empire State Building was built in the shortest time period you can imagine with the Depression. They didn't notice the Depression, but certainly with an incredible downturn that occurred. These workers worked. They did not want to lose their jobs. That was one of the most well-built buildings ever, and it was opened in the shortest period of time, in 18 months, 932, something like that, 931. I wanted to be there, and I wanted to be there because of those tall, skinny skyscrapers. I just wanted to see what's going on. I wanted to get a sense of it. I wanted to get a sense of growth. I wanted to get a sense of the general public that I could feel when walking around Central Park, et cetera. It was really important. I got a tremendous amount. I don't want to talk about it now, other than to say that yields are important, but the pricing of homes and real estate, almost throughout the country, I'm even hearing of little places away from major cities that are seeing huge rental increases. Something there is going to change. How it changes is always... recessions kind of take care of that, but at the same time, I've been speaking about this. Look, the global timber forest GEDF has been basically in a recession since over a year ago, April of last year. You're looking at the builders, the Philadelphia Housing Index. Basically, it's been a double topping. It's been a recession. So all you're waiting now is for the official economic stats to say, oh, we're in a recession. And usually, in my experience, over the decades and decades, is that as soon as economists say, recession is... we're in a recession, that's when you start to make serious lows in the market and things start to turn around. So maybe we're close, but in the meantime, the TLT, look at this one-to-one expansion down side from 179, March of 2020, two years ago, over two years ago, in the IHS 20 of Treasury Bond Fund, coming all the way down to the pattern I call the dreaded H, two dreaded Hs, breaks down and went all the way to the one 02-12 level in June, and now we're balancing some. And it's just balancing some. So all of this says to me that the rotation has to be officially recognized because just about everything, look at this RTH. RTH is the retail sector without Amazon. XRT is the retail sector with Amazon. They look the same. Big, big pullbacks major. They're in recession. There's no question about you have to... well, you need an official title? Yeah, it's there. So let me look at this. I want you to show you the dollar. Look, the dollar is makes a high... Did I not type that in? Oh, I should have. Makes a high at 109.29 on the 14th. So far, so far, this is pretty darn good action, isn't it? I'll be back in a minute. Basil Chap, well, a few minutes. Basil Chap and Dowsdown 156. We'll be right back to continue looking at all the different currencies. I mean, we're looking at the commodities as well when we return. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will help you get to the top of the chart. So, we've programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Visit our website at www.tfnn.com Hi folks, we're back. Mazelchap is sitting in for the hour that Larry does. Larry said, trade what you see how I could make it today. I'm sitting in because there's a lot that I wanted people to ask me about. I didn't get to in my Tiger Technicians hour at 10 o'clock to 11. Don't forget my newsletter is called The Opening Call. That is really important because let me just get out of this. I want you to do a couple of things at the same time. Because crude or oh, I've got a caller. Don't forget the caller. Wow, I almost forgot about the caller. Thank you very much for reminding me, Al. Let's go to Phil in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Phil, how are you? Fantastic, Mazel. How about yourself? I'm well, thank you. You'd like to look at why? WKY So why is key international holdings? I'm not sure what they do. What do they do? Well, they do some cybersecurity. They do some IOT. Got a couple contracts with the French military. They're doing some on-shoring with the semiconductors as well. They're out of Switzerland. I'm trading the ADR here. I'm going to start a position and want to see what it looks like on the chart. Do you have any position or is just a question about it? Yeah, I just started. I bought a start-up position today just wanted to see what you would look at as far as levels upside and downside. So just talking Yeah, what comes out of the page at me is that the monthly chart has had big moves, single-move monthly moves up into the 40s and the same bar then crashes to the downside and makes even lower lows. That's its modus operandi. So I don't know what the overseas chart looks like. It must be similar to this but maybe without quite the volatility but the pattern must be close. At 2.37, I have to tell you I've looked at Hack, which is the cybersecurity ETF for my subscribers for so long. I cannot understand it's beyond me why the cyber area has been so weak. Talk about recession. It's been a recession a year ago, almost a year ago. It just makes lower lows and lower highs. Even today it's down sharply 2.7% down the dollar 30 and 46. And if I look at cyber if I look at all these different stocks why on earth I mean everybody needs cybersecurity and yet they're not participating. Something's going on. Maybe it's because some of the network, some of the Comcast, etc. Maybe they have such a good security system. I don't know what it is. But I'm shocked. Cyberark and Israeli network security software company crowd. Those are all in the same area. Went to the 200 period moving average and now it's pulling back sharply. It was once a 298. It plunged down to the 130s. I mean, these are huge moves. So let's go back to your question. And the question is W-K-E-Y and I can just say to you that the sideways pattern in an arch formation says that unless visually just on a chart basis because the Magdi rallied price didn't rally. Secastic rallied price tried to rally but then it failed. On balance volume, tried to rally failed. The 9 is still way under the 14. I just think that at 237 I tell you what I would prefer to do since you've just got a little starter position. I would have a little patience. This one is going to need patience because this is a rectangle sideways move but whoa, I wouldn't mind going from 235 the low that was made on the 1st of July to the high that was made on the 12th of July of 267. That's like 21 to 27. I mean, that's really good in percentage terms but then on the way down it's gone from the 260s to 230s and that on a percentage basis, even today it sounds like 2 cents. What's the big deal? Well, it's 80.84% almost 1%. So this I would do. I would immediately draw in, you talked about a technical picture and the technical picture says it went to repeat B. That hasn't failed yet because it hasn't taken out the low but I have a time price match and that time price match says from the left side I'm going to go to the doji candle and I'm going to go to the second I'm going to be conservative. I'm going to make it longer than I would normally do. I'm going to go to the right side and put that in and I'm going to say there's a chance that by the 3rd of August if 230 support is taken out it's going to get really close or maybe even test the 225 low that was made on the first. How that holds is going to be important. That's where I would be looking to say, hey you've got a habit now in the rectangle formation sideways and then making slightly lower lows but if that holds and you don't break the 225 area but hold 227 and then move to 231 that might be where I would start maybe another little tiny position or if it was me I would be my first attempt but look at the weekly chart the weekly chart has the black 40 period moving average it's barely been able to touch that since it broke down back in October of 2021 and the pink one it's hit it so many times it is not even closed once above it in all that time now it's flattening out this is the first time that you might get it so this is the time where you could start to see WKEY wise key international holdings at least have a rebound the big move I just don't see that right now so and I'm saying that based on I'm basing it on both the cyber work that I looked at all the different securities as well as the hack which is the and I think bug is another one BUG I realize a completely different price levels this is a 25 and it's fading global x cyber security so all I can say is this is a real tough one for me because it's stuck in a range and I think it's going to stay in this range look it could try today it attempted to 255 and yet it is a 237 so you need to see very quickly that it gets to the 245 area and holds there on a closing basis and then says aha maybe now I can move towards the top because if it goes below today's 237 low goes to 235 there's a real good chance it's going to test the left side low I've been real careful of this I wouldn't put much money up on it I'd rather wait and pay a little bit more to see it making higher highs and higher lows rather than just going sideways I don't know if I'm helping you but that's kind of how I'm looking at it that's that's a lot of help that's valuable information Basil I appreciate it I appreciate you calling Phil and good luck with this I'm going to put it down I'm going to make a note just to keep following it because you never know with these very low price stocks in an area that could very quickly become a popular area but the cyber has not yet thank you for calling I appreciate that have a great week Basil speak with you soon I hope so thank you very much so first let's just go back to DXY so the dollar we've been along since 2018 at 90.07 via the UUP we took one little profit at 96 so it go all the way to the high of 102.99 back in 2020 and then it plummeted down to 89.21 and we've just two weeks ago we took a tad off in the 108 area and I think the dollar is to me still really important it is pulling back it has gone to a sell signal in the dating not yet a sell mode there's a trend line that we're talking about it's got the pattern that I've spoken about much earlier in my show actually question about the chapter we've inverted falling exclamation and then it went higher it had that back maybe I'll talk about that when we return so we've got the Dow down 207 S&P's down 45 Basil chapter is setting you for the hour of Larry for the event to be back in a moment TFNN has been your trusted source of analysis for bonds, metals, stocks, commodities and options for years and we are happy to announce that we are bringing that same caliber of analysis for the forex market Teddy Keckstat has 30 plus years of experience in forex trading, commodity risk management, forex hedging, volatility and so much more Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs including the DXY, Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Aussie Dollar, Dollar Yen, Dollar Swiss Frank and so much more. 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Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ 84 S&P's down 43 Basel Chapman and I had a question about, Basel, what's your favorite long in the food sector? I've had a tough time. GIS is the one that I would normally look at and say, let's see where it's going to go GIS is the General Foods GIS It's holding well, it's almost near the high, it's up in the 70s and it's in the 76th area and it's in the 73 I would say this is the one that's holding best and because of it, that would be the one that I'd look at but I'm not sure I'd actually put my money there so I'm not going to be very helpful to you but I think this is one of the better ones. I think General Moore's the panoply of what they sell I think has a better chance of seeing a price increase if it has to do that being holding, we'll see The next question about the GLD that's gold if you go along the GLD it says, Pete G says someone else says to Pete G if you venture back into gold calls I'll join your Misery Labs company so look, the GLD and the GDX are not participating very well the GDX, the gold miners keeps making lower lows and lower highs to me my eyes says it's getting real close to some kind of a balance but if it couldn't use the decline in the dollar to balance, it just says this is not yet the area that is showing strength talk about recession, it's been a recession the gold miners since the 33 level back in June, this is plummet down to the 24s, now wait a minute look at the EUR USD, so the EUR currency pair I spoke about this huge arch formation and where I chose the plum line to talk about left side, right side price time match, it went within two weeks of it, going from the March 2020, the 1.06 to the failure pattern and that failure pattern is getting back to 1.04 is going to be really tough we've got a caller coming in and we've got a caller Mike at Almond Beach, Mike how are you? pretty good Basil first of all thank you for all the work you do at TFNN you're always there to fill in for somebody that can't make it, I really appreciate all the time you put in well thank you very much and also I caught part of what you were saying about the dollar and I'm looking at the dollar and crude oil because I've been trading out of some of these oil stocks so were you implying that the dollar could be at a short term bottom and getting ready to bounce because I'm looking at a lot of these oil stocks like Exxon and it went up to the 50 SMA and that acted as resistance and it looks like it's coming back down so it's a possibility that the dollar will be rising let me be as clear as I can because I know this is an area that if you're a little bit fuzzy interpretations could be anything what I am saying is first of all I want to treat Vixie, the volatility index Goldy, Gold Dolly, the Dollar Crudy, the crude oil and Bondy, Bond as separate vehicles even though sometimes they work together or sometimes they exact counter points like the dollar and Gold has always been traditionally I want to think of them separately, when I think of them separately I'm able to put in positions for my subscribers that allow me to kind of free think to say hey maybe we can do something that is against what normally you'd be thinking so in the crude oil if you look at the rectangle formation in the weekly chart with the double top I'm talking about the continuous contract maybe the prices change I'm talking about the high in the week of 11th of March at 121.4600 that's the same price but everything else is the same and then it got retested back in June, was it? No, where was it? Yeah, it was June the week of the 17th it got tested within a few points the technicals were way weaker and yet when it pulled back the rectangle formation in the weekly chart is held and that just says real clearly that 87 the 200 period exponential moving average is going to be really important going into August in crude oil because if there's a close below that level that means you've taken out a lot of key left side support levels and it says that that should be an opportunity for say the airlines or the truckers to move higher so that impacts the transportation index at this particular point crude oil is just stuck in the lower range and now it's starting to show signs of making the lower highs and lower lows that's different altogether to natural gas which I was talking about yesterday which screamed almost to the left side high of June so natural gas is now a completely different chart formation but it's already a positive one as opposed to crude oil so that's what I'm saying I'm trying to separate everything out so in that regard I'm saying crude oil is still remaining kind of weak at this particular point even with all the conflagration everything that's going on internationally look at the trend line in the dollar and it's holding it right now it seems to me the dollar is using up time more than price or the technicals are still very strong if you look at the monthly chart I'm still of the opinion that this is leg C and that the dollar even if there is a couple of months of weakness will go to a leg D a higher high at some point and that eye-treating the dollar as the currency of recognition it's the United States economy which so far is still one of the better economies in the world and this is the respect that you see via the icon of the dollar there are a lot of psychological as well as physical and technical aspects to the dollar that I consider to be really important the fact that it's used time and just gone from 109 to 106 in two and a half weeks or one and a half weeks as a correction is so far saying that's good the green 19 period moving average is really close to slipping under the 14 period moving average that's holding the dollar up at this particular point but if I use the inversion I know you don't mind if I do this just to be able to give you a better picture the euro is struggling and the monthly chart of the euro is making the cup to the arch to the cup and now a huge arch formation with the lower left side low and the weak I don't see the strength of the euro and that's the reason why the dollar is still holding well so treated separate dollar icon that's where money is going big big money is going to the dollar the gold fear icon a lot of the fear factor is kind of filtering out of the market at this particular point therefore the dollar is starting to weaken the VIX index which is the volatility is pulling back but it's still within a trading band and that says that's the reason why we get days like yesterday and today where there's a ready attempt and then all of a sudden it goes to low so at this particular point I'm saying that if the VIX index has already done that it's gone over 25 over the 200 period moving average I'm watching it because by the end of the day especially I wish today was fed day instead of tomorrow because now we've still got 24 hours in which to see a lot of choppiness in the market but at this particular point if the VIX index actually closes Wednesday even Wednesday at four o'clock closes towards the 25 80 26 20 area that's over a point higher than where we are right now and that's going to suggest that we've got a lot of weakness to come going into Thursday and Friday but if there is a pullback and starts to trade back at 24 20 or in the 23s that's going to help the general market you want to hold on or yeah I'll be back with Mike and Mike and Ormond Beach Florida down 492 in the Dow down 44 Basel Chapman sitting here for an hour over there. 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Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave the Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den all Tiger's and Tiger's for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com I've also we're all back and we're looking at let me just get back to this so I'm looking at all these diverse areas and this is really typical of what's going on had a question come in from from the Tiger from the Tiger YouTube about Louisiana Pacific and here it is and this is what I'm talking about that you've got to look at each sector separately this is at a beautiful run from 50 to 63 it's trading at 60 right now but the general consensus as the visuals say it's making lower lows and lower highs so this is a great trading range but everywhere we look at you've got I don't see the follow-through in other words even though we are long in different areas for my subscription opening call mostly what we're trying to do and what I've been going through here with Mike and Orman Beach is that it's very selective and I've been very selective we've raised a huge cash position but we're very selective in our long position and I've got tight stops I'm not prepared to mess around you're out you're out and get back in it's got to work so even Louisiana Pacific which is holding really nicely now says it's starting to bump into resistance in the low 60s how it handles it and gets to the 65 is going to be very important so Mike in answer to your question and just your overall overview I'm looking at this and I'm looking at everything separately if you look at the crude oil you know crude oil has been as pullback sharpening still quite high but it has pullback sharpening if I go through each one of these different commodities that's the story and when I went through the euro I was showing that the euro is pulling back the dollars holding well and it's almost the same thing so I'm looking at it and I'm just going to make it real simple if at any point in the next two, three days the volatility index trading at 25.26 actually starts to trade not just close but trade in the 23s we can get a really nice counter-trend rally if it holds in the 25.80 to 26 or higher area that's going to put down side pressure we might see that tomorrow after the Fed talks and then we'll see what happens but after the Fed speaks it's going to be really important that there is some kind of a rally hope that helps you thanks for being here folks Baselchamp is signing off and I'm sitting here for the hour and hour and hour check up for daily news that are coming back so wonderful message today, great work coming up