 Okay, good morning guys. Hope you're doing well. It's Friday 24th of April couple things then before I begin got the charts up in front of me and I'm relatively quite open all things considered. There are a couple of headlines to get you up to speed I'm sure you might have seen some headlines about glee Sciences yesterday Or glee add sciences. I should say and how equities got bumps off their initial highs Otherwise UK retail sales has just come out this morning It's a little bit of weight there in the British pound But not that surprising given that these are reflective of the government shutdown as these were March related figures Still a little bit of an impasse with the European officials whether they could Coordinate effectively to get a timely pandemic response in play So the euro touch heavy with the Dixie just testing up around yesterday's highs at the moment Dollar index trading up about two tenths oil markets pretty quiet Obviously somewhat stabilization as we were commenting yesterday From some of the roller coaster movement that we're seeing at the beginning of last week Treasury markets up buns probably outperforming up at R1 already this morning And then in the equity space a little bit of a mixed close on Wall Street last night and generally lower Overnight the age of the Pacific session, but nothing too drastic The DAX currently down about 200 but has already come up to around that opening slight gap down that we had here on this left Chart in the future space. So just keeping an eye on that any break above be looking for the gap fill Up towards where we were We trading yesterday at the end of the session about 10 382 It's about 50 points above where we are at the moment But yeah, let's get up into a couple of things And a few points I want to make first of all, I Think a good session that we did with some of the new traders that have been doing some of the online training with us this week Has been about, you know kind of routine morning preparation You know when you wake up in the morning and you're going through the news You're trying to create or formulate this kind of fundamental view and you're doing your technical analysis across the charts and so on You know from the fundamental perspective, obviously, that's where I hopefully can help and you know One of the main conclusions here is this morning is it is a good case in point because you know Even though my routine at the moment generally I tend to get on the screens just shortly after about 6 a.m. So I'm pretty much Already have an idea about my view for the day In about 20 minutes or so once I've kind of scan through various different things the point being there is that No, this morning. I'm pretty neutral. You know if you were to ask me Do you think equities are going to rally today again? They're full today, you know, what do you think's going to happen? Generally, I don't really have a view to be honest and you know the point is that that's an okay conclusion to have you know peers ahead of trading Was in discussion about this Before it's like often most days you probably will have a pretty strong opinion on things But you know there is that third option and sometimes then that can Feed into the end result that perhaps then there isn't a trade Potential or possibility at that moment in time all I can say from my experience, you know Having always operated in the intraday environment is that at some point in time an opportunity will arise just because a Six o'clock in the morning in London. There's nothing that clear and apparent That does not mean that by the time we get to the repeat of that in North America So midday in London that that might have changed, you know price prices move Economic data comes out in the UK in the eurozone. There could be some unexpected events that unfold and so there's always opportunity In that respect. So that's where I guess the discipline the patients and these types of principles come into play But yeah, I mean overall that's pretty much how I feel about this morning. I think I'd rather Like we we often say is kind of let the market Show its hand a little bit and then look to take action accordingly But at this point from the fundamentals, which I'll give you of course a run-through to recap Not too much really going on to really give a high conviction on view Going through the headlines then and before I do Obviously this is up. You're watching probably most of you on the YouTube channel So don't forget to like and subscribe. We'd really appreciate it. We've we've you know done some really I hope useful videos for you particularly around the oil market at the beginning of the week and you know It's been amazing to see the community grow in such a short period of time So I'd love to continue that and obviously any questions that you have on these videos feel free to leave leave comments Eddie who is one of my colleagues who often drops a video every now and again where he goes into some more specific points He just shot a video yesterday About quantitative easing and liquidity and fallen angels Which is kind of combining a little bit of what's been going on this week and some of the terminology perhaps that you might be Unfamiliar with and I'm going to release that on Saturday morning So make sure you subscribe to the channel put the hit the bell for notifications and you'll get alerted as soon as that goes That goes live But let's have a look at some of the headlines then that are happening this morning So a couple of a couple of negative developments that generally soured the tone I would say on Thursday We have the US jobless claims Not a surprise In that respects US total job losses now in Exceeding 26 million when you kind of cumulate those those readings we've had over the last five weeks The Eurozone PMI data that came out that was pretty terrible the lowest in two decades and then The Gilead antiviral drug remdesivir flopped in its first trial this being a randomized clinical trial Those are company disputed the characterization. What happened here according to the FT? Which where it was released as an exclusive disappointing results revealed in draft documents published accidentally by the World Health Organization They have actually Come out and they try to clarify a few points the company that is But the drug on treating COVID-19 had relied on studies that basically so far has not met the robust scientific Standards of being randomized and having a control arm So this again was obviously quite important because this was one of those Headlines about a week ago that saw market rally in the aftermarket session on the back of what looked quite positive But then we faded that move to following morning because we were saying well, you know The data isn't fully conclusive as yet and more evidence of that being the case. So unfortunately No kind of massive breakthrough as yet and at this point in time as per what we've heard from various governments around the world Unfortunately, it's probably going to be a very long time before we get something more definitive on this front The other thing we've had this morning If we go back to the charts just just quickly Little bit of a move down in cable, but quite frankly nothing really too shocking We've just got back down to where we were trading on a test of yesterday afternoon London time on the low We just had UK monthly retail sales volume for By 5.1% in the month of March the largest fall since the series began As many stores obviously ceased trading on the 23rd of March in the UK Following the government's guidance on the containment of COVID-19. So Yep, more weakness and more kind of statistically, you know, some of the worst numbers on record, but you know, a lot of that's being priced in at this point in time Otherwise the euro is a little heavy Somewhat by part as well. You've got weak retail sales and you have still a little bit of Difficulty in European officials coming together and actually being able to agree on the best course of action in a coordinated effort so you had Recently the European Commission floating the idea of a two trillion plan for economic recovery Apparently though, there's still pretty huge differences between what is believed to be the best course of action Namely the likes of Germany Netherlands having different views to the likes of France, but then also different to Italy and Spain, for example Merkel has been quite up, you know, positive. I guess in some of the the comments Saying that coordinated response is what needs to happen, but her opinion hasn't changed on the idea of that joint Kind of issuance idea. I euro bonds this point in time So kind of similar to what we had yesterday a real lack of outcome and Given that the diet Situation that's unfolding at the moment. I mean, obviously this was the PMI data that came out and The retail sector of course getting hit particularly bad given the this stringent nature of the lockdown But but equally so the manufacturing PMI also moving sharply lower So you know time is of the essence with this type of thing and this kind of leads in then to Generally what's been happening around the world? So yesterday there was a moment of yet the whole market rally this being equities bonds everything was moving higher at one point yesterday after a Nikkei report came out That the Bank of Japan may replace its government bond purchase target to allow for unlimited buying essentially Much of that move has faded and any kind of weakness that we're seeing in the Japanese Yeah, and if you're looking at your dolly and charts morning is pretty much recovered And so the move hasn't really been sustained. I guess it's the next evolution for them to go to that level But then we got to start looking at the ECB Because the ECB have their rate decision next Thursday So towards the back end of the month and one in four economists expect the crisis bond plan from the ECB to be Boosted next week. So it's not an elbow overwhelming expectation about I think 27% in the latest economists surveyed by Bloomberg the timing as well as the size of the top-up is like to be influenced of course by How governments react how much they're willing to spend and when they're able to to get that implemented It's probably going to have a big Big point into the composition of what the ECB are going to do Economists predict that the 750 billion euro emergency plan will be increased by another 500 billion so you can see here these are the announced purchases that they plan to make for 2020 and then The expectation here is that they're going to top that up north then total of 1.5 trillion This comes as well with the US Federal Reserve obviously already Their balance sheet now at a record 6.62 trillion, you know, it's quite mind-blowing at those levels And here's a table of kind of like the options and timeline as we see it today Obviously earlier this week the ECB agreed to temporarily accept some junk Rated debt as collateral that decision of course coming as today It could be a possible credit rating cut to Italy as well to look out for later on this afternoon So yeah the meeting Could expect to boost a emergency bond buying program according to 27% of economists So I guess it's not a matter of if but when does it happen now doesn't happen in the following meeting The majority of economists for C additional purchases then announced by September for sure And then most C emergency bond purchases ending not by really this time next year And no rate change foreseen through to December 2021 It's the current status as it stands today Otherwise elsewhere oil market So coming off this subject Pretty pretty stable for the time being again that kind of fanfare around the extreme contango situation that prompted these Negative prices with the lack of storage at Cushing is kind of had its moment I would say as I said this time yesterday Just looking at WTI crude here in the June contract the pivot level Perhaps something to keep an eye on if we do start to track lower again Just given some of those price points that is reacted to in the last two sessions on the upside and then yesterday has a level of Support in the late kind of European session or US afternoon And that pivot coming in just above the sixteen dollar hand or sixteen eleven One thing that I am keeping an eye on is what is the progress of The OPEC situation we know that the deal that they've struck this kind of 9.7 plus the reputed multi-million coming from the G20 Countries in regards to the US and in Canada and so on and how is that performing? We know that that cuts probably going to kick in towards May time Sally Ramco have started to scale back production from its maximum capacity of around 12 million According to latest sources in preparation of lowering its output to 8.5 million when it gets to May Kuwait, which is the fourth largest by production in the OPEC nations In size they've already studied started to cut their oil supply And then according to industry sources Canada is now close to shutting down a total of One million pounds per day of oil production So these things obviously as they start to kick in are going to help to some degree to provide a bit of a floater prices as we start To see that pullback obviously still Question is out on the kind of demand destruction that this this COVID situation is going to have and whether this is going to be Inevitably enough, but also the other thing that we're seeing that I have been tracking is that US oil and gas recount fell 76 week on week. So we're now below 500 According to one of the data rate providers So in the last six weeks the domestic count now just given the pressure that prices were already under before this week even begun US oil and rate count now is down some 41 percent over the course of the last couple of weeks And so production rates undoubtedly will start to decline as we go forward in time Looking at the calendar then what have we got? Retail sales already out in the UK for Germany. You're gonna get the iPhone business climate figure Again could be quite interesting just given that the nature of that being forward-looking and that being obviously companies in Germany and how pessimistic are they just given the current situation that's going on at the moment we are looking for a decline from a 66.1 to 80 on the headline with a range of 70 to 85 And then going to the US afternoon in durable goods the Michigan number is the final reading So unlikely to provide too much action on the back of that. So overall, it's a pretty quiet day actually Both for this morning at the open I don't want to keep this briefing any longer than necessary Because I want to really reflect that point that I was saying that you know It's okay to really be quite standoffish at this point and just wait for things to unfold a little bit Obviously going into the weekend Generally speaking, I'd say on the balance what we've had in recent weeks is the market tends to get a little bit apprehensive Whether that will unfold or not again I'd be wanting to see a little bit more of a catalyst whether that comes from a headline or whether that comes from a technical Moving the market to make really that decision. All right, that is it. No more for me to say I don't think so I'm going to wish you a good session ahead and a great weekend Remember subscribe to the channel. I'm going to drop that latest video from Eddie on Saturday morning, but otherwise. I wish you a Good session. Thanks very much guys