 Hello, and welcome to Newsclick. We have with us our editor-in-chief, Mr. Prabir Purkayasta. We are going to discuss the ongoing military situation in Syria. Welcome, Prabir. For over one and a half months, the government forces have made serious advances towards the east of the country in Syria. They are now in Derazor province. So how do you see this advance? I think there have been very, very significant changes that has taken place in Syria over the last six months. It's probably good to have an overview of what's happened. They have liberated Aleppo. Half of Aleppo was under the siege or in the occupation of the Al-Qaeda other forces, allied to Al-Qaeda. That siege was lifted sometime back. As you know, the Christmas for the first time after a couple of years was celebrated in Aleppo. Now they have lifted the siege of Derazor. Now this was a siege which has been continuing for almost 30 months, two and a half years. They have lifted the siege. This is a very, very significant change. If we look at the map of Syria and particularly the changes that have taken place over the last six to seven months, you will see what was originally a small region under the Syrian government's control, probably about 25 to 30% of the territory of Syria, though 80% of its population, was under the Syrian government forces. Now issue is that it is quite different and you see that they have gained by all accounts at least three times the territory that it had at that point of time. So at the moment, there are still pockets which are not under its control. They have come to those pockets, but there has been a significant enlargement of the territory that it has held, particularly the east, which is largely desert. So not very well populated, but has oil wells over there and two major cities. One of course is Derazor, the other is Raqqa and both were strongholds, the areas with the strongholds of ISIS. The Derazor Syrian government never lost the city. It was isolated. It was at the siege, but nevertheless they held on to it using various air lifting, air bridge, supplying it with food and other weapons, etc. So this, they had a three-pronged attack towards Derazor in order to lift the siege. One was across the desert, which was really the Pamirah, Sukhna, Derazor highway. Other was along the Euphrates from the north and the other was an attempt from the south along again the Iraqi border and then bending towards Al-Bukamal to and then via Mayadin to Derazor. These are the three axes in which it was advancing. It is very clear that the major thrust for them was the desert because here you can take over the major cities, then you can quickly cover the distance. Unlike the Euphrates river where the terrain is much more difficult and the ISIS was able to mount offensives from the east of Euphrates. You can see the map is very clear that they were vulnerable to attacks from the east or from the ISIS. So given that these three axes meant that the ISIS was under pressure from all sides and finally what has worked is essentially breakthrough straight down the Pamirah, Derazor highway and they have now broken the siege. It also means that when you look at the maps, the maps are a little misleading. We see them colored red or black, which is normally what ISIS areas are colored and then you have the blue or green, whatever colors. There is idlib is shown as a province of the Al Qaeda. Essentially in the east, which is the desert region, the towns and villages are held but the territory is largely empty. So therefore, if the main towns are taken over then others get into what would be called pockets and those pockets can be reduced over a period of time. In the east it does look like those pockets are going to be now slowly squeezed out, fragmented, squeezed out and Syria will be soon really in control of the region of the entire eastern region which is the west of the Euphrates river. That opens up the question what happens south of Derazor which is still an ISIS occupied area and across Euphrates which is also occupied by ISIS which is at the moment a two front war. In fact a three front war. ISIS is fighting Syria on this side of the Euphrates on the other side. It is fighting the Iraqi forces which are also converging on that area from the other side because they have liberated parts of, after Mosul they have liberated parts of the region which are contiguous to Syria and are in a position now to advance on this side as well. On the north they are also facing, ISIS is also facing pressure from the Kurds who are now being supported by the Americans as well as what's called the SDF which are really some of the Arab forces which have joined with the Kurds against ISIS. So it's facing a three front war. West of Euphrates there are oil fields, just the south of Derazor there are oil fields. Now who controls these oil fields is the next issue. The month of September is going to be actually very significant in terms of how we can see ISIS controlling and losing its territory. Also in the west of the Syria we are witnessing a simmering conflict between, rising tensions actually between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel just held its biggest military exercise in the last two decades. So how do you see, how do you read this simmering conflict between Israel and Hezbollah towards the west of the country? You know there are two sets of issues involved here. One is of course Lebanon and Lebanon for Israel has been a major issue because Hezbollah is the only force which has held it to a military draw in 2006 when they had crossed over into Lebanon and tried to come up to the Lethany river and as well as in earlier times when it had physically been thrown out of southern Lebanon and had to retreat back to Israel. So Israel has never recovered from the fact that militarily Hezbollah is the only force in West Asia, the only Arab force in West Asia which has fought it to a draw and if not forced to a draw from certain occupied territories. It's something Egypt didn't succeed, something Syria didn't succeed in Jolan for instance. So therefore they do look upon Hezbollah as a serious military threat. Hezbollah also has accumulated a lot of rocket and other designs and is capable of launching by conservative figures something like 10 to 30,000 rockets into Israel including up to Tel Aviv. So Israel has always held that this to be a major threat both in terms of its offensive capabilities and as well as its defensive capabilities which allows Hezbollah then to confront militarily Israel. With the Syrian war Hezbollah has actually also gained a lot of military experience now it's linked directly to Iran, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah. The link is now complete, there is a possibility of supplies being actually increased. They don't have to fly, they don't have to go by ship, they can directly go to Lebanon from Iran. So this is a serious, shall be said, strategic weakness not developing for Israel that it does not seem to be able to control militarily the region as it could in the past. Now Hezbollah has concentrated its force outside the demilitarized zone which is between Lebanon and Israel which is right now controlled by the United Nations forces over there. They are in supervisory capacity watching the ceasefire. Now Israel tried to the United States to say Hezbollah should be disarmed even outside this part of the zone, even refused to do so. Israel's problem is just after the UN controlled zone at the moment where the UN observers are there is a concentration of Hezbollah forces including rockets and other missiles which are capable of being launched to Israel. So Syria was a possibility for them to march through Syria after Jolan, go past this line as it were which Lebanon, in Lebanon is held by the Hezbollah and take it from the rear almost like what the Germans did to the French Majino line and this was something they were planning for a long time that this is a possibility whether they do it or they don't do it is not the issue. The military plans included march into Syria from Jolan, bank left and then take Hezbollah in the rear in the area confronting the Israeli forces. That was also foiled recently because both the Lebanese army, Hezbollah and the Syrian forces with support from other countries like Iran and Russia they cleaned out first the Al-Qaeda and the ISIS forces from that region. This is a border region between Lebanon and Syria in which ISIS and Al-Qaeda were there. They were repeatedly given support by Israel to keep this part out of the control of the Syrian and the Lebanese forces particularly the Hezbollah and they therefore were supporting Israel, supporting them with both air cover as well as money as well as with medical relief. So all this was being done in Israel in order to keep it out of the control of the Syrian government on one side and Hezbollah's presence on the other. Recently the Lebanese army, the Hezbollah and Syrian army moved together to squeeze out Al-Qaeda as well as ISIS from this regions and now after the Russia-American agreement there is an understanding that Iranian forces and Hezbollah forces will not come up to the Jolan border remember Jolan is still occupied territory. It's really that part of Jolan which is under the control of Israel still as an occupying power after the 67th war. So this part of it that which is under Syrian government's occupation still that part of Jolan they will come up to the border but this shall we say the ceasefire line. They will come up to 8 kilometers of the ceasefire line in Jolan and they will not cross that but that means they are dug in over there they are militarily going to prepare over there, make it impossible for Israel to go past the Syrian forces bank left and take Hezbollah in the rear. So both Hezbollah and Iranian forces are going to be there they are staying there in order to prevent this break from happening. So I think this is a major development. One is taking out the ISIS and the Al Qaeda from this from that area will not go into the details of how they did it but also preventing Israel from making this maneuver and that's one of the reasons the United States is so unhappy with the Lebanese government particularly because it has broken ranks with Saudi Arabia and the United States and joined with Hezbollah and the Syrian army in order to clear its own territory. So given the current situation, what can we expect from now on? I think it's an interesting situation where we can expect mopping up in rest of the country that you are going to see the south and east you are going to see mopping up in the west you are going to see mopping up operations continue for the next 2 to 3 months. I expect the Euphrates River to be crossed by the Syrian forces I expect most of the oil fields in that region also to fall to the Syrian government forces that's the next I would say 2 to 3 months target for Syria really take away all the small enclaves that still exist with Al Qaeda the so called Free Syrian Army forces some of them backed by the United States like in Al-Tanaf I think those enclaves will shrink or fragment and will slowly disappear Thank you Prabir that's all the time that we have today keep watching news click for more updates