 What is up everybody it's Toss here welcome back to another video so in this video we're going to be doing an overall market update taking a look at the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq we're also going to be doing a trading update talking about what I did today in the markets as well as some stocks and ETFs that I'm watching right now and looking to trade as we're getting closer to the middle of October here in 2019 and as you guys read in the title I'm also going to be sharing with you all my opinions right now on whether or not I think the stock market is going to all-time highs and we're also going to discuss some crucial news surrounding the trade war we actually came to a partial trade deal today between the US and China which is extraordinary news for the stock market so we'll go over that and my personal opinion on how that's going to affect the stock market so sit back relax if you enjoy the video and you find value in this video feel free to go down below and hit that like button consider subscribing and don't forget to join our free discord group chat and our free Facebook group all of those are linked down below and let's get right into it guys starting off here with the SPX the S&P 500 the 500 largest publicly traded US companies very good day today honestly guys you can see here we were up 32 points at the close up 1.09% but the funny thing is we were actually a lot higher than that literally 20 minutes before the market closed and if we look on the one day one minute you guys can see what I'm talking about we actually dumped 20 points from 2,990 down to around 2,970 within 20 minutes and in my opinion this could be some profit-taking right because we can see the markets have risen so much especially the S&P here in the two-day spin literally from 2,917 up to around 2,993 in the matter of about 48 hours here and that is a gain of around 70 roughly 70 points which is insane so the fact that we did pull down here it's not too crazy in my opinion nonetheless we were up a lot day over day here right and if we zoom out a bit to the four-hour chart again it's clear that we're trading in a zone now between 2,950 and this all time high at around 3025 and we're moving we've moved above these moving averages both the 180 and the 50 S&A which means right now in my opinion the bulls are in control right we also held this trend line as you guys can see across the screen here and this trend line signifies that we held a higher low from the previous meaning that this uptrend that we've been on over the past six months technically it's still intact right and if we pushed to this all-time high now which again would obviously be above 3025 that would mean the uptrend has really officially continued and confirm that higher high which at that point we may be getting more gains in the S&P 500 right but let's say over the next couple of days let's say this optimism fizzles off right the markets start to see the negative things about the trade war again hey this market could dump we may be breaking back down 2950 below 2950 below these moving averages then we may be running down again to test this uptrend trend line that I have drawn across the screen if we break that we may be going down to 2880 and so forth right some of the levels below that on the S&P here are 2810 level below that would be 2740 and I do think there's a possibility if tensions between the US and China they start to come back again they maybe don't agree on certain things maybe more tariffs get put on here in a couple of weeks who knows right with the you know with the tension with everything that's been going on anything is possible right now between the US and China and this trade deal right sure there's some short-term euphoria now optimism due to this little trade mini trade deal partial partial trade deal they came to but don't let that cloud your judgment when it comes to the negative sides that are still out there that are still damp ring between the US and China right so if we go to the Dow very quickly you guys can see 320 points in the green today up 1.21% at the close on the one day one minute you can see we actually hit 27000 we peak above it then in the last 20 minutes the market dumped 200 points in terms of the Dow Jones here which is pretty significant 200 points in 20 minutes that's a pretty sizable drop but nonetheless day over day here we hit a low 263 yesterday 27000 again like I mentioned was the peak today so that's a move of around 700 points in two days so the fact that we did pull down here a bit it's not surprising me you know overall the trend has been up over these past couple of days even with this little pullback as you guys can see we're maintaining these moving averages as supports on this five-day five-minute chart and if we zoom out a bit to let's say this 20 day one hour you can see bulls are in control we're trending above moving averages we broke above the 180 estimate today that's a very good sign and if we go back to that for our chart we're trending between 266 right now as a support and that all-time high at around 27.3 as a resistance so technically guys we held the higher low here as you can see based on the trend line that I just drew we're still at a lower high but if we break out of these all-time highs hit that high or high that's going to be the really the full on confirmation of the continuation of the uptrend right but let's say on the flip side we get some negative news around trade again economy whatever it may be we start to dump down below watch 266 if we break that we may be going down to test that same uptrend support line here and then maybe we go down to test 262 if we dump we may be going down 259 we may be going down 256 and so forth right so going to the Nasdaq now guys up a hundred points here up 1.27% we broke above 7840 very prominent level of resistance now we're trending below 7950 and above that same 7840 level that I just mentioned putting us in this 100 point window on the Nasdaq right if we go to the 20-day one hour you can see bulls are in control here we're no longer trending below these 180 SMA resistance levels the 50 SMA resistance levels we're now holding those as supports we're seeing a bullish cross here the 50 SMA crossing above the 180 SMA and again that break above 7840 these are all good signs that we're in a reversal uptrend right now bulls are in control right and if we go to that one day one minute here you can see the aggressive dump with about 20 minutes left in the market this went from around 7920 all the way down to around 7840 within 20 minutes and that's a drop of around 80 points guys that's pretty pretty insane here in the end queue and overall guys I know I'm saying that on the smaller timeframes we are seeing bullish breakout potential here but until again like I mentioned on the S&P in the Dow until we break these all time highs you know obviously this uptrend is not fully fully kind of confirmed in a sense right if you guys know what I mean we're still technically at lower highs but again it's kind of in a weird wedge position at this point right all of these indexes so just keep an eye on this wedge again on the end queue you can see it on the Dow as well you guys know what I'm talking about right you can see that we're kind of in this iffy spot right now where we're in an uptrend but at the same time we're making lower highs so just keep an eye on what is going to happen at these levels so that is kind of the overall market update today I'm going to pull up my Safari tab to show you all what went down today very very quickly and again I'm sure a lot of you already know this but if you didn't really pay attention today or yesterday to the markets this is going to be news to you right and this is going to be pretty pretty good news to you so as part of the deal China would agree to some agricultural concessions and the US would provide some tariff relief and you can see down here these tariffs there is going to be a tariff increase on October 15th these have been suspended right so the pact is tentative and subject to change this is one I guess you can say negative thing as Trump prepares to sit down with China's vice premier actually this was earlier today so I don't know if it's still tentative yeah I have to look deep I look deeper into that but nonetheless the deal under discussion which is subject to Trump's approval would suspend a planned tariff like I just mentioned on October 15th all it also may delay or call off levy's schedule to take effect in mid December such an agreement would be the first breakthrough in the 18 month trade war that has hurt the economies of both nations so you guys have to understand this trade war has been going on for a very long time and whenever we see optimism like this is some really good news honestly is this is really good news right here this is going to be very very good and positive for the stock market it's obvious why the markets have been running up it's because of this right while the limited agreement and this is a negative thing here pay attention to this guys while the limited agreement may resolve some short-term issues like these tariffs the agricultural concession stuff like that several of the thorniest disputes thorniest disputes remain outstanding US goals in the trade war center around accusations of intellectual property theft I know a lot of you guys have done research on that force technology transfer and complaints about Chinese industrial subsidies so the fact that we got a partial trade deal a lot of the main stuff a lot of the main problems they're still up in the air right so the fact that again this might just be some short-term relief in the market because the main problems they're still over our heads which honestly leads me to believe here that I don't think these markets are going to hit these all-time highs to be completely honest with you guys as you guys read in the title you know these these over over lying problems here that have not really been solved I think these are going to have a damper on these markets still and honestly guys next week I do believe that these markets are going to lose some steam just because of this partial deal I don't think everything is sunshine and rainbows and daisies and daffodils now right I don't think the markets are going to just fly up now that would just be pretty ignorant of the markets to do that knowing that there's still a lot of problems surrounding this trade war the economy slowing corporate debt all this different stuff so are the markets going to hit all-time highs at this point I don't think so right if they do in the short term ultimately I don't think it's going to last I think these markets are going to lose steam which is why I actually bought a put today just one contract that we're going to talk about here in a couple of minutes in the trading update so I'd love to know what you guys have to think about the trade deal this partial trade deal the trade war where the markets are going let me know down below in the comments what you guys think about that so overall today guys I bought that put that we'll talk about here in a minute but before that actually I forget which one was first I think this trade might have been first anyway I traded D gas today on this little dip I actually did not really make any money because it didn't end up panning out but I want to show you guys what my thought process was on this trade right so D gas goes up whenever natural gas is going down right our theory my theory on natural gas is I think it has I think it has some downside here in the short term and as I've been saying that over the past couple of videos natural gas has been falling right and if we look here let's say on the 5 day 5 minute let me show you guys where did I get in I think I ended up getting in as natural gas saw this rally right I was looking to see are we going to break out of here that would have been very bullish but ultimately we actually got rejected at a lower high so at this point this would have been great for D gas right here right from about what time was this 11 a.m. down at this level here but actually I got in I believe too late I just didn't end up panning out let me see I'm kind of I'm kind of forgetting here what happened so D gas it really never ran when I got into it this is actually where I got in on this big dip again when we saw natural gas pop up but it never ended up panning out and I ended up just taking I don't know if it was a little loss I think it was a little loss because I don't hold these over the weekend right so that's kind of what ended up happening and never broke out I was looking to see natural gas dump but it really it really it did but it didn't really correlate to D gas popping which is kind of odd at the same time right but that's really what I did traded D gas not really anything it was more of a break even little loss there because it didn't pan out and again I don't hold these over the weekend that's just my personal style and I bought a put let me tell you guys what I did I'm pulling up my Robin Hood right now and by the way I do buy I do options on Robin Hood and I do have a Robin Hood link down below if you do sign up and put a hundred bucks you do actually get a free stock if you want to if not it doesn't really matter right use whatever broker you want but it's there if you do want that free stock and Robin Hood I ended up buying a put let me put my password in this might take a little second here guys sorry but okay limit price a dollar 12 premium here I bought it at 1205 and it was an SPY put to 286 dollar strike price at $10 or 1028 October 28 expiration date so SPY for those of you guys that do not know I'm sure again a lot of you guys know this already but this is called spider hence why there's a spider right here and this is an ETF probably the most known ETF that tracks the S&P 500 and I bought this put honestly it wasn't that much money right I put a hundred and ten hundred eleven dollars here one contract at a dollar eleven again 286 dollar strike price 1028 expiration date I really bought this to really hedge against the downside here in the market sure it markets have been doing great my overall stock market portfolio my long portfolio with my long-term positions it's been doing great over these past couple of days but I think again like I mentioned a couple of minutes ago I think the steam you know this this this run right here the steam is going to fizzle out in a couple of days and overall if this market drops I'm going to make money on my put options right this is something that a lot of people do to hedge against you know the market that they think is going to fall and then when the market falls if it falls the money you make from the put option you can take these profits and then buy more stocks at a lower price as the market falls that's why it's called hedging because the market's dropping sure your long positions are losing money but if you buy a contract a couple of contracts of put options you're going to make money on those despite your long positions losing money you'll make money on them on the options then you can buy more stock if that's what you want to do or you can do whatever else you want with the profits but overall I'll update you guys on this sure my contract might expire worthless I might lose all of my money but that's okay because I'm looking to hedge against my long positions guys that's kind of the point my risk here is the whole premium that I paid which again is $111 I can potentially lose this if the option expires worthless or if the options expire worthless but let's see right I'll update you guys on the channel of course and let me know down below if you guys do want me I know a lot of you guys I've been asking I haven't made any options videos but if you guys do want me to make some beginner option videos whatever it may be on Robinhood I can do that for you let me know down below in the comments if there's enough demand I'll make a video so that's what I ended up doing spy put here and D gas which never ended up paying out and honestly guys for this upcoming week I'm just looking at spy of course I want to see what this is going to do are we going to end up breaking above 297 and the fact that we really didn't break above that at all today or we did but we ended up pushing down below it again that's a bit bearish in my opinion right so what are we going to do here are we going to end up ultimately getting below 295 which in that case if that happens guys I think I'm going to make some good money on these puts if it happens soon enough because these puts do expire in about 17 days I don't know if the market I don't know we'll see if the market gets very rocky we get into 290 292 down down here and especially if we break this ultimate level 286 where I do have my strike that's going to be very good for me right but I'm watching spy I'm of course watching you guys and D gas ultimately here guys you guys is still down trending we're still trending below that 50 SMA so D gas could be a play here if you guys does not break above this 50 SMA right think about it if we run up here get rejected and start to sell off if natural gas NG here starts to get rejected and break below 220 especially which is a very bearish sign D gas is going to have a lot of potential right because if NG breaks below 220 we may be going down a 210 which is one of the next supports really the next support on natural gas and if that does fill the gap down D gas is going to go to the moon guys so those are some that I'm watching I'm watching Apple Apple's been doing quite well guys today hit another all-time high 236 up 6 points up $2 or 2.66% rather I'm watching Facebook a dollar 184 dollar close today up $4 today very very good we're slowly breaking above the 180 SMA this could be interesting maybe we fell up to 190 here if these markets do stay strong if the markets dump maybe put options short-term on FB Facebook could be an opportunity as well if we talk about gold a little bit I'm assuming gold dumped today I didn't really take a look at it too much to be completely honest with you guys but we did break below 1495 today which is a very bearish sign we may be filling down the gap as indicated by these arrows here or this arrow one arrow down to about 1465 that is the next support that I'm seeing so in the meantime GDX looks like it has downside right we may push to that lower low and what happens when GDX is going down guys JDST which goes up whenever GDX is going down is obviously going up right so JDST I see some potential in this one this week next week rather on Monday Tuesday again if gold GDX do end up dumping so I don't want to spend too much time on this video guys let me know down below in the comments what did you trade let me know if you want me to talk about any stocks in this upcoming video which is on Sunday and by the way every single Sunday I'm making videos or one video where I'm going over what I'm doing for the upcoming week stocks I'm watching my plan things to look out for earnings all these different things so make sure to subscribe and again drop a comment let me know if you want me to talk about any ticker symbols so if you enjoy this video I'm sure you guys did find value in it especially if you stuck till the end feel free to go down below hit that like button consider subscribing and join our discord group chat guys I guarantee you'll find value in there we have about like 820 plus members in there and the Facebook group is doing some decent numbers now too it's at 250 people talking so I guarantee you guys we'll find a bunch of value in there my Instagram at stoccerfest is linked down below as well so I'll catch you all in the next video have a great weekend hope you all did well this week hope you all prepare for the next week it's going to be rocky guys I'm excited peace out