 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a thriller of a slate on tafford tonight across majorly baseball because not only do we have Like 33 pitchers who could rack up 10 strikeouts for tonight But also we get to top things off with the braze and Dodgers as the late night hammer here to break down that game It talks and strikeout props for today We're talking Rob Friedman pitching ninja pitches or pick his brain on that game talk about some strikeout props And get you ready for it should be a stellar night across baseball This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at Pitching engine you can find his work on peacock MLB MLB on Fox and now in the Fandall sportsbook app itself Rob So you are everywhere and adding to the list of places every single day. How you doing? I'm doing great Stresses me out all those places. Wow But the app thing's kind of cool, you know getting to talk about some games I was a fun little addition and I'm excited to see how it goes the rest of the year. Oh, yeah It's a it's a blast actually I love stuff like any time I could talk baseball like and spread it around absolutely everywhere Absolutely spread the good word far and wide We're gonna spread the good word around tonight's slate and talk about that brains Dodgers match up and strikeouts and more In a second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have our college football week one preview up with Dr. Red Fang. We have EPL match week four up with Austin cast I talked some NASCAR and formula one yesterday, too So every sport pretty much covered here on the feed. Of course NFL is back next week We're talking futures and week one with Ryan Williams coming up on Tuesday after an off day for Labor Day Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV Plus now Rob Let's begin things by talking about this braves Dodgers matchup specifically because you know You're a pitching guy and two pretty fun pitchers in this game for tonight couple lefties max read and Julio Arias now What I want to ask you I know that your mindset is that of a pitcher So I want to ask you your max read or your Julio Arias entering this game What on earth are you supposed to do facing these two insane offenses? Chuck and duck Like it's really really tough like I thought Strider pitch great last night You make like one mistake against the Dodgers especially against Mookie Betts and your hose I don't even know how much a mistake it was. It was just great hitting by Mookie and I mean he's a stud What are you gonna do? It's it's tough because like there aren't like places to rest We were talking before the show about like this this braves lineup on the opposing side and like if you look at their iso They're isolated slugging they have like seven or eight guys with a 200 iso against lefties this year Which means for Arias you can't take a batter off. So what's your thoughts in this game? You know, who do you think has the edge? I you know I'm not gonna ask you to pick a winner because that's gonna ruin the fun of just watching this game But like who do you think has the slight edge entering tonight? I would say the Braves probably have a slight edge entering tonight just because Julio Arias has been known to me. I mean, he's great on top of his game. He is a stud Wicked slur of all that but he does make mistakes and if he's not on top of his game Absolutely at the very top the Braves will make you pay. I would never want to pitch to this lineup It's like pitching in Coors field on the moon Blowing out at Wrigley like you can't do anything against them Oh, then when they were actually in Coors field that was unfair like that seemed like a violation of the Geneva Convention at that point So luckily they're not there. Oh, yeah. No, I think so. I mean and poor Lance Lynn learned it last night Like he yelled it. He struck at Olson yells and then next thing gets absolutely shelled Yeah, and you know, you just don't poke the bear do not poke the bear But that'll be a fun game all weekend a four game series Hopefully a by preview of what we'll see during the playoffs. We'd love to see rematch of this one later on as well Let's talk some strikeout props for tonight Rob when you look at the board over at Fandall sportsbook Where is seeing value right now? Well, I mean for one, I love Erie Perez and and like I think he is Potentially a generational type pitcher. Yeah, he's an absolute ace in the making as good as anybody and I'm going to take him Despite going against the Nats and I get burned a lot on the Nats I mean, they just don't strike out that much But he did strike out with seven last time out against the Nats and I have him for six today So I'm gonna go with that. So I want to ask I thought I was gonna like ask I'm gonna try to predict at least one leg and Perez me the guy was gonna pick because you know, he's awesome And so like the downsides of Perez are obvious, you know, he doesn't go super deep in games They don't give him a long pitch count because they want to conserve him because he's like 15 years old He's facing the Nationals like you said low strikeout team and it's repeat matchup But I know all that stuff and I still have Perez protected for 6.7 strikeouts for tonight So those things are accounted for and he's still a value over five and a half even money Like how insane is that efficiency to be in this bad matchup repeat matchup? Not get a lot of leash and still be projected for 6.7 strikeouts He's incredible his command for his age and height like usually taller guys have a tough time dialing in command They may throw hard when they're young, but it takes a while to sink everything up And maybe they learn it like Randy Johnson when he's you know upper 20s or something and then your lights out He's already there like I mean, I I've never seen anything like it. He throws a hundred just very great you know nasty little curve ball and slider and And has command like yeah, he has everything and he's a good he seems like a good dude Yeah He's like the pitching version of what we saw from one so to a couple years ago where a guy comes up and immediately is A difference maker I hope we get to see him pitching late into the year too because that was a delight with so too as well But like I mean the Marlins not the best playoff odds right now, but there's still a chance So I hope we could see him in October and that's why I'm hoping they let him go a little deeper day Maybe like you know, they're in the running. It wasn't not like they're saving an arm So let him let him get like seven or eight K's that we're all cool. I mean, yeah, let's go way over this number Yeah, it's five and a half even money at Vandalsport for airy Perez. What about other strikeout props you like for tonight? All right, so I like the little run Mitch Keller's on right now. I'm gonna go Keller six K's or more I Just think he's turned it back around he went in a little pitching slump. He looks good right now I've noticed his pitch shapes look good. So I'm gonna take him I also have him above this number So we're two for two so far as far as my projections and your strikeout your strikeout props because I don't know Like he seems is he a big tinkerer like a guy who's always Trying to find the right pitch mix because I feel like for him It's been a roller coaster of like pitching really well slump But now I think he's back on the ascent again and it seems like he just found like the combo that's working for Yeah, and I also think he he lost some of his his sweeper movement to me And I thought that that Really compromised some of his results and it looked so much sharp I don't know what he did he does tinker with stuff because you know He's come a long way from where he was and his stuff is downright filthy right now And it was earlier in the year and he was a you know, basically like one of my go-to k-prop guys So, uh, I think he's back and I like him tonight And his number is pretty low over five and a half strikeouts plus 124. I haven't projected for six and a half So well, we're two for two so far. Let's see if we can go three for three Which other strikeout props are you on for tonight? Okay? I'm going with kodai Senga against the mariners because I just had like come on the mariners k a lot kodai racks up k's I like that playing at home He loves pitching there too. Like he always wants to put on a show. Yeah the fans at city field. So Yeah, I got him for seven k's or more He is over six and a half is minus 144 for Senga And we did it three for three roff because I as Senga projected for 7.5 strikeouts Even though the Mets are obviously not in contention. They're still letting him go deep in games I'm not sure if it's just like the competitor in him or what it is But like he's going deep in games. He is being effective Like you said, it's a good matchup for him too. So we did it We got the sweep three for three where my numbers agree with all three recommendations. I I love to see that Awesome, there we go. Now that means we won. So I don't even have to watch the games Yeah, what's the point? You know, you can sit back and enjoy. Okay So Senga for seven plus strikeouts Perez for six plus strikeouts and Mitch Keller for six plus strikeouts all numbers that rob is on for tonight Now the pitching leaderboard market is not up yet over at vandal sports But we kind of know what the general breakdown may be now. I want to ask you about someone who I think might be I think he'll be pretty high in In where he ranks for tonight But I still think I want to at least see where freddy peralta comes in because He's been lights out. I don't know So like when he first came up two pitch guy kind of like one and a half pitch guy And now he's using that change up more through with the most he's thrown at the entire season last time out 23% And I feel like it's unlocked a new level for him So I don't know where peralta will come in at because and that matters a lot the number matters a lot But I think rod the first person I want to check out is peralta because of what he's done What's your thoughts in the leaderboard and peralta tonight? Literally my gut instinct is peralta or senga as the favorites Um, depending on peralta's odds I like that because exactly what you're saying like he is on a roll And it does not surprise me to see him with 10 to 12 ks. Um, you know, just it's what he does right now He's electric. So yeah, I can definitely see that Yeah, sure sir is also a contender, but he's he's facing the twins, but that's a really cheap matchup And you know, again, they just saw him a lot of good hitters in that lineup Maybe by rin bucks in his back tonight who can say on that one Um, but like I think peralta is gonna be pretty fun Any dark horses like I guess the peras might be tough just because of the length Like I don't know if he can quite get there on this kind of slate But I think that the senga one also does make a lot of sense to me. Yeah, I mean, those are the two guys I'd be looking at. I mean again, sure as we're maybe an outside Look because he can you know, even in a repeat matchup I don't know that someone has an advantage over him only because he's got so many different options to go to He may have an advantage having seen how hitters react. So I don't know But I would definitely take a look at those three The repeat matchup does go both ways. That's very true. You know, he can he can spot weaknesses. Uh, he's he's a psycho. So, uh, That can that can definitely work against you for sure as well Alrighty, that is rob freeman. Make sure you check him out on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on peacock And they'll be and will be on fox and of course right here in the fandom sportsbook app as well Rob, it was a pleasure to get you back on the show looking forward to talking to you again throughout september And uh, good luck and enjoy watching all the baseball tonight. Absolutely. Let's win Let's do it. Why not? I think that's a great idea. I'm on board. I could use that after tuesday. So let's uh, let's do that for sure Alrighty, uh, that's rob freeman again. Check him out on twitter at pitching ninja to see all that fantastic work And again, check him out right here in the fandom sportsbook app as well We're gonna dive into some money lines and totals I like for tonight across fandom sportsbook in just one second But first get out your game day gear because college football is back and fandom wants you to join in on the fun Right now all customers get a no sweat bet back for week one Just place a bet on any week one college football game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win bet on money lines spreads totals and more Just visit the fandom sportsbook app and kick off the college football season with america's number one sports book must be 21 plus And president select states refund issued is non-littrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat max refund five dollars Unless otherwise specified restrictions apply c terms at sportsbook dot fan duel dot com Fan duel is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven over the ccp g dot org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it in y oming in kansas one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred are in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana's one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in maryland md gambling health or In west virginia one 800 gambler dot net in massachusetts hope is here gambling help line ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 seven support and in new york one eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope and why Now not only the robin i have synergy on the strikeout props for tonight where i was showing value in the projections on the overs for those guys But also a lot of the guys we discussed Uh, two of them i should say our guides where i'm showing value on their money lines for today Let's start things off by talking about freddy peralta and the milwaukee brewers the brewers money line Is minus 102 right now at vandal sportsbook and i do show value right there I'm going to take the brewers at that number for tonight it all revolves around freddy peralta like we said absolute heater for him recently and I do feel like the market's a bit slow to catch up on this one Over the past 10 starts peralta throwing more change ups as we discussed and he has a 2.81 skill interactive e r a and that time With a 39 strikeout rate hard hit rate for him not all that bad either at 35.9 So he's checking all the key boxes and he's facing a tough offense in the fillies But peralta had 11 strikeouts against the rangers two starts ago So he can do well against tough offenses, especially when he is at home where that strikeout rate does go up quite a bit The brewers offense obviously much worse than the fillies and that does matter but the brewers bullpen just as good as the fillies and The brewers have one of the best defenses in all of baseball So I feel like they're going to keep this game pretty low scoring Which is a good thing for us for tonight if we're getting minus 102 on the team at home I find that pretty enticing. I've got the brewers at 55.8 percent to win their implied odds are 50.5 percent So there is value in the brewers for me for tonight Other one is the other guy that rob was talking about he likes mitch keller's strikeout prop I like keller's pirates to win tonight against st. Louis cardinals some slight movement here It was minus 102 early rod. It is now down to minus 104 For the pirates to win this game, but still below where my model has it for tonight I mentioned before roller coaster year for keller But on a good swing right now looking at the past six darts for keller he has thrown more sinkers and cutters along with fewer curveballs and typically an increase in Fastballs generally in and sinker specifically isn't going to lead to a lot of strikeouts But it's been good for keller 27 strikeout rate 3.73 skill interactive er a and the results have been good to other than He had one bad start against the brewers in there outside of that the results have been pretty good Cardinals are starting to go to Hudson who has not been bad But he's letting up a 44.3 hard hit rate since he got fully stretched out. So i'm Generally, I generally think Hudson's better than perception of him. So Um, I'm not actually looking to target him But I don't think it's a match we need to fear with the pirates for tonight Now at the brewers money or the pirates money line being minus 104 That puts their implied win odds at 50.98 percent. My model has some 52.98 percent So still two percentage points above where the market has them. That's not a huge cushion So not a ton of wiggle room here, but I do think it's one of my favorite ones for tonight So go with the brewers at minus 102 and the pirates at minus 104 for some money lines for tonight Final bet of the night is going to be actually a total and it's total. I feel pretty decent about now I was thinking about this and I'm concerned about james paxton's current form for the red sox and as a result of that I do show value in the royals money line, which is plus 152 at the end of the sports book However, I also think the red sox offense is going to Put the clamps down on jordan liles and potentially put up a lot of runs and can can the city keep pace So I think the better bet to take advantage of some concerns around paxton Would be checking out the total here over nine and a half for the red sox and royals is minus 110 And I feel like there is value In that number paxton has had his velocity be down for his past nine starts And he has a 4.69 skill interactive era in that time A lot of that has come against better offenses than cans cities They did shut out the royals for five and one third innings During this stretch. So he's already done well against this offense But in that game cans said he had a 46.7 hard hit rate So allowing zero earned runs there probably was a little bit lucky The red sox facing jordan liles and the royals uh bullpen, which is not very good on the opposing side So the red sox honestly, there's a scenario in which they hit the over on this number all by themselves But I do think the royals offense will contribute at least something To this game and help us get towards the over odd nine and f runs So again over nine and a half is minus 110 if andrew sport spoke for the red sox and royals I am taking that in large part because I want to i'm a bit wary of james paxton right now based on the way things look for him recently So for me, I've got uh the pirates at minus 104 the brewers at minus 102 And red sox and royals over nine and a half at minus 110 for tonight That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread give a big thank you once again to rob A freedman check him out on twitter at pinching ninja find him right here at the vandal sports book app as well for some select games Breaking them down as they occur if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fan door research at fan door research back with you once again tuesday no show monday due to labor day But ryan williams will be in the house on tuesday. We're gonna talk some futures before NFL season begins and take a look at week number one as well It is going to be a blast all next week. We'll talk to you then have a fantastic and safe labor day weekend This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network