 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 20th of April with me, Patrick Mullerbyn. Last week's US busy economic data calendar showed big falls in economic activity across a range of sectors in March, and surveys for April should point to further sizeable declines. Next week's economic calendar is lighter, however the market PMI indicators are forecast to show a further slump in both manufacturing and services activity. These indicators normally get less attention from markets than the more established ISM survey that are currently closely watched because of their timeliness. Weekly initial jobless claims have risen by an unprecedented 22 million over the past four weeks pointing to the likelihood of a huge jump in the unemployment rate in April. There are some signs in last week's data of the pace of the increase slowing, but another big number is expected in the coming weeks to push the five-week aggregate close to 30 million. Housing sales data for March is also likely to have fallen sharply. We don't get any policy comments as the Fed officials are now in a silent period ahead of the 28th to 29th of April policy meeting. However, there are likely to be further discussions about more fiscal stimulus measures. Reports suggest that the fund to provide aid to the SMEs is almost exhausted, but so far, Democrats and Republican politicians have failed to agree a bill that would include a top-up. However, Nancy Pelosi is holding a call late on Sunday to see if this can be reconciled. It's made slightly more different by the fact that Congress is not currently sitting. From a technical perspective, the dollar index is somewhat betwixt and between in a neutral phase here. However, if we see a follow-through selling versus the two topping-tail patterns here in the dollar earlier in the week, look for a break of 99.50 to target 98.80 and then down towards the equality objective at 98.18. If bulls can manage to wrestle the dollar index higher early in the week and we take out Friday's higher at 100.28, then we can look for a test of 101.47 and even up to 103. However, the path of least resistance at the moment would appear to be to the downside. Whilst we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with Gold. Gold pulled back late last week and we're looking now to test the symmetry swing objective at the 1666 level. If by a step back in here, we could see another attempt to test the equality objective at the 1760 level. However, a failure below 1660 will be a bearish development looking for a quick test of 1640. Once again, we could try and mount another push higher to test the 1760 from that area and that will be the real bull bear line in the sand for the week. In the Eurozone, a number of business surveys coming up next week will provide the first indications of Eurozone economic activity in April. With the lockdown in place, market watches expect the indicators to point to big falls in outputs in the near term. Looking for further declines in both Eurozone PMIs for manufacturing and services and in the current condition components of the German ZEW and the EFO surveys. However, market watches suggest that might see some improvements in the expectations reading from the last two surveys, reflecting hopes that the lockdown restrictions will start to be soon. EU leaders will meet on Wednesday to discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Late last week, Eurozone finances agreed a fiscal stimulus package to offset the negative economic impact, and the leaders are likely to be asked to sign off on these. However, that agreement left out a lot of details, including how the so-called recovery fund will be paid for. So, this still has the potential to cause some issues between leaders. Discussions about stimulus packages may be complicated by it being tied into the negotiations on the EU's upcoming seven-year budget. The new EU president, Ursula von der Lyon, is reported as wanting the fund to form part of that budget. However, some EU states may want to keep it separate to emphasise its temporary nature. From a technical perspective, the Euro dollar, if we can hold Friday's lows at this 108 level, we'll be looking for a test of a 110.35, potentially on route then through, on a close through that 110.35 area up towards the 111.60, and that's a 116.1 extension of this AB leg here. And then we can potentially get that test of the 112.74, which is the equality target versus this swing low here at the 107.69. Now, if we can't hold on to Friday's lows and prices start to roll over, then what I'd be looking for would be a test down into an equality move that would see us back retesting the lows at the 106.44 area. However, similar to the dollar, inversely to the dollar, sorry, the path of boost resistance at this point looks to be to the upside, but we need to pay close attention early in the week if we can hold on to this 108 area as support. The coming week in the UK is a busy one from an economic data perspective. Friday we see March retail sales and consumer price inflation Wednesday. We'll provide the first official readings on the initial economic impact of the pandemic. Retail sales will probably have been supported by a surge in grocery shopping as households stockpiled. That could lead to a rise in retail sales ex-auto fuel despite signs that spending on many items have fallen sharply. The inflation data will have been collected too early in the month to show the impact of the lockdown. However, CPI inflation is likely to have fallen primarily due to the drop in oil prices. Inflation seems set to fall further in the coming months and is expected to drop below 1%. Tuesday's Labour report will mostly cover the period up to February and so will reveal little about the impact of the pandemic. However, timely an employment claims data for March may point to the likelihood of a substantial rise in employment in the next few months. Thursday's manufacturing services PMI's Rapal provides some of the first of the extent of which the economic activity has continued to weaken this month. Expect further declines in both consistent with the sizeable flaw that we saw in GDP. From a technical perspective, a sterling dollar looks to be correcting from the current cycle high at 126.35. As 123 acts of support, I'm looking for a move up to test the 129 handle. From there, I think we could probably see a more sustained correction back into the 122.120 zone. In Japan, it's pretty quiet. We really, in terms of the data side of things, we get the April Nikkei manufacturing services in PMI. Both are set on Wednesday to show a significant contraction in activity and we wrap up the week on Friday with March CPI for Japan. The inflation was stagnant even before the outbreak of the virus and we can only expect that to be continued to demonstrate in the data. From a technical perspective, as the dolly yen holds 106.80, still a chance that we retest this 109.35 area, but from there I'd be looking for sellers to once again try and step in here and ultimately take us down to test the 104.50. However, if we do get a break through the 109.35, then look for a test of 110.80 as the next pivotal area. In Australia, the key data really is on Tuesday, overnight Tuesday for those in the UK. We get the RBA minutes looking for, Mark will be looking for further guidance on the impact of the shutdown. Also on Tuesday we get a speech from the RBA Governor Philip Lowe. The speech is titled as economic and financial update. So we can expect more information as to how the Australian Central Bank is looking to manage the economic output issues that have been experienced due to not just the coronavirus in Australia, but also the bushfires. From a technical perspective, as the Australian dollar trades above 62, I'm looking for a push higher here to test into these PIVASAL 67 area. This will be a key decision point for the market and I'll be looking for various reversal patterns to set short positions on a test up into this 67 handle. And like I say, watch for a test of 62 and support bullish reversal patterns there can be can be bought looking for a move up to that 67. Finally, in Canada, the only data I've noticed is Tuesday's retail sales, which are February data. So probably won't matter to markets ahead of next month's expected implosion. For what it's worth, the reading may well still actually be in the black one last time. We already know that the board's CPI prices were slightly higher in February over January and season adjusted terms, but gasoline prices fell further and February auto sales were up before they were cut in half in March, given that auto dealers account for about a fifth of total retail sales and gas stations account for just about another tenth. The two effects combined should add up to about a three quarters of percentage point to month over month February retail sales growth assuming stable auto prices and gasoline volumes. But then we can expect this category to show an implosion in March. There may also be some modest early pandemic related spending during February. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar, whilst we hold 142 as resistance, I'll be looking for a test of the 136 handle from here. We may see a more sustained recovery, but certainly the path of lease resistance at this point is lower. If we can take out 142 early in the week, then we could look for a retest of the prior resistance at 143.55. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing 20 April.