 Thanks so much for tuning in today really really excited to take you through the findings of our latest report I'll be going to be joined in a second by my colleague Mike Thompson who's our director of analysis and chief economist Really excited to take you through the findings today So let's get started, but let's begin with just a bit of background This is the product of two years of work for the CCC Building of course on the big report we published last year on net zero It's a major piece of work for us I want to just start with a bit of background though about the thing that has inspired this piece of work And that's the climate change act. So the climate change act is the UK's climate law It has a long-term goal of net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest It also has these interim targets which take us on the glide path to that long-term goal They're called the carbon budgets. So one of the things we'll be looking at today is the sixth carbon budget Which we have to advise on that's for the period 2033 to 37 and we will be looking at that sixth carbon budget period and offering our advice on what the Target should be for that period But what we're going to do today is a bit more than just looking at the sixth carbon budget We're actually going to take you on the path all the way to net zero For the UK and that's what's so exciting about this work It's a genuine route map to the full decarbonisation of the UK a proper blueprint for how the UK could do this Now we're going to make this recommendation to government and it's for government then to think about whether it can legislate that target for the sixth carbon budget Let's get started And let's just start with a bit of a bit of context here last year in our report on net zero What we were trying to do was describe how the UK looked in 2050 so when we've got to the goal of net zero what we're doing today is much more interesting We're looking at the journey to that long-term goal and all the changes that we'll see along the way And to do that what we've been trying to do is to build Multiple paths to the goal of net zero so multiple scenarios We built three illustrative scenarios that get us all the way to that long-term goal and you can see them here So the first of these is the engagement scenario or widespread engagement This is a scenario where people where businesses are more responsive to the needs to decarbonise They're more willing to make the change to low carbon alternatives more willing to move from high carbon goods and activities Innovation our widespread innovation scenario really interesting scenario This is a world where we we see more adoption of low carbon technologies We see those kind of cost reductions that go with that It's a world when we've got a cheap power price We're producing cheap clean electricity and that flows through the economy in different ways We use different technologies including technologies that actually take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and suck it out and store it under the sea And lastly we have the headwinds scenario headwinds is quite similar to what we said last year in a net zero report Progress is heavier going in headwinds. So we need to make more provision with big infrastructure This is a world where you're going to see more hydrogen being produced more use of carbon capture and storage And we can also build something really exciting that we were really keen to explore in the CCC Which is a fourth scenario. We call this our tailwinds scenario This is a scenario that explores a really optimistic take on what could happen over the coming years We're exploring the upper bounds of really what is feasible here when it comes to cost reduction when it comes to investment also behavior change This is the world that shows you what would be necessary for the UK to get to net zero early So tailwinds gets to net zero in the early 2040s We can't just take it off the shelf sadly Because you have to believe that all of that will come together. So it's an optimistic take on what could happen in the UK and The last of the scenarios and this is the one that we're going to be talking about most today is what we call the balanced pathway And this is our attempt to look at all of the bottom up Changes that need to happen in each sector across the economy And we've taken a decision what we regard as a kind of balance set of outcomes here Crucially what the balance pathways trying to do is to progress as much as we can through the 2020s and Then keep open the options from those exploratory scenarios through the 2030s and the 2040s It's really ambitious as you'd expect from us It's challenging big message for the government about getting on track for this stuff But crucially it's also feasible, and I think it's really appealing as well So we use this pathway to make our recommendations including the recommendation on the UK's 2030 targets which the UK will be submitting to the UN process And also the 6th carbon budget itself So let's get started and let's talk about what we are actually recommending And this is going to be the first of the really important charts that we show you today And this is the one that really we need to kind of land with you the big messages here in this chart So first thing to say about this chart is look at the shape of it You can see the 6th carbon budget period there in orange. You can see our historical emissions before it It's a kind of s-shape a kind of inverted s-shape and that tells a story which we'll be explaining in a second the headline message here is that by 2035 our recommendation is that the UK has to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 78% from where they stood in 1990 that is a really ambitious goal Now just remember until last year the target we have for 2050 was an 80% reduction So we've effectively brought that forward by 15 years That's the measure of how ambitious we're now being by having that net zero goal set in law That requires a faster pace of emissions reduction over the next 30 years than we achieved in the last 30 years And it's also a path that's front loaded If you were to divide up the emissions over the net emissions reduction over the next 30 years into two 15-year chunks What you'd see is it's a kind of 60-40 split We're doing 60 60% of the emissions reduction in the first 15 years and 40 in the next. That's really important It's important for a few reasons. The first is that that requires investment early And that investment we think can support the UK's economic recovery from the pandemic Secondly, what we're doing is opening up the options by front-loading it in that way So opening up the new industries that we'll create the new jobs that go with that The options for reducing cost as well will be opened up by going early We can also go further on emissions later if we open up the opportunities now And the last thing that was it's really important by going front-loaded on this is that we are minimizing the UK's Contribution to climate change itself or cumulative emissions. That's important, of course for the Paris schools Which are global so let's talk about the global impact next So what we're looking at here is A different chart. This is our global emissions per person What you can see here is the global goal per person Historical chart which shows you actually been flatlining historically over the last few years when it comes to emissions per person And then the challenge of the Paris agreement, which you can see here the falling red line is the The challenge to keep warming to well below two degrees centigrade And the green line is the challenge of meeting the most ambitious part of the climate of the climate agreement set in Paris of Meeting a one and a half degree threshold temperature threshold if we just overlay on top of that the UK path It tells a really interesting story You can see that historically over the last 30 years. We've been cutting our per person emissions Quite well to the point where we're almost at the global average today and by 2035 the UK is actually hitting that one and a half degree pathway So it's really ambitious this pathway that we're recommending and we're confident there for that This is a pathway that's aligned well with the Paris requirements for carbon budgets Okay, let's talk about now how we can deliver all this and we're gonna get into now the really exciting stuff I think and we wanted to give you some fresh Insights about the challenge of how the UK can cut its emissions a beat carbon So I'm going to turn now to my colleague Mike and Mike perhaps you can tell us a bit about what we've learned along the way Thanks, Chris and hello everyone This is our rainbow of abatement Every stripe here is a different way of reducing the UK's emissions And we think it's useful to categorize them into four broad types These purpley ones up at the top. These are about demand slight reductions in the high carbon activities with more low carbon activities instead, so that might be Cycling instead of driving video conferencing instead of flying plant-based foods instead of eating meat There's also efficiency. That's things like insulating your home so that it can be more comfortable But use less energy and if you look at the nearer term here 2025 2030 you can see these are really important actually in the near term and that matters because they're not that well Targeted by policy at the moment So these are a real opportunity to close the gap to the UK's NDC for 2030 Going down the rainbow then we've got the orange the red the yellow and this is where the real action is in the long term This is adopting new carbon tech new low carbon technologies electric cars and heat pumps for households CCS carbon capture and storage and hydrogen for businesses and the big one here electrification the orange wedge as Many studies find this is the most efficient way of doing things It's generally the cheapest and so we have it as our biggest our brightest stripe in our in our rainbow Of course, we need low carbon fuels to run these technologies So we have a big expansion of low carbon electricity Primarily from offshore wind and low carbon hydrogen. Those are the blue wedge on this picture and Then finally the green wedge at the bottom that reminds us this isn't just an energy story The way that we use our land is vital as well There are going to be some sources of emissions that we just can't avoid we think maybe from cows and sheep and planes And so we need to remove co2 from the atmosphere to offset those. That's the net in net zero We don't expect co2 sucking machines to play a big role. So this is about lots and lots of trees And alongside that some energy crops that we can cycle more quickly and use with carbon capture to bury the co2 under the sea Take all of those together and you get down to the bottom of the rainbow the pot of gold Which is net zero in 2050? Back to you Chris brilliant. Thanks Mike So let's take another take on the challenge of net zero and this is looking at the challenge of behavior change Societal change and also technology. This was a chart that we produced last year for net zero I was quite surprised how popular it was actually so we wanted to rerun the numbers This is looking at the challenge of how we bake carbon to 2035 and looking at how we divide that up across behavior change and technological change so about two-fifths of the emissions reduction that we are Recommending comes from pure technology change. So that could be a simple thing like switching a fuel It could also be about closing a power plant that tends to be the kind of change that people Don't notice directly the rest of it involves some elements of changed behavior So we've got the kind of pure behavior change which you can see in the orange wedge here That's the change in diets that you that we might see over the coming years It could be about flying less just as Mike says the rest of it, which is the pink wedge That's the really interesting stuff for me. That's what we're bringing together Technology and behavior change to cut emissions. There is nothing of course to be afraid of here at all This is the kind of changes that we'll see in our day-to-day life So we might be plugging in our car for example rather than taking it to a petrol station You might be heating your home from a heat pump rather than using a gas boiler These are the changes that we will see in our lives, but of course they won't be a major change to our lifestyles And crucial thing here is we're gonna have to have a discussion about these kind of changes And we've been drawing on the work particularly of the climate assembly that the UK had this year to try and understand The perception of people of those changes and then clue there is that that group of people in the climate assembly when they understood The issues when they had the information in front of them were actually really supportive of these sorts of changes So a clue there we have to start a conversation with the people living in the UK about the changes that lie ahead So we come now to I think one of the most interesting and exciting Parts of our latest support which is the question of costs and the question of investment This is where we've got some really powerful. I think insights about what lies ahead for the UK So let's think firstly about the challenge here and the challenge is mainly one of investing to get to net zero So in our work what we've looked at is that transition over the next 30 years What we see is that we have to scale up investment across the UK economy I said to scale up to about 50 billion pounds extra of investment each year That is mostly private investment now 50 billion is a big number But just to give you a sense of scale at last year total capital investment in the UK was about 400 billion pounds So we're adding an eighth to that by 2030 and then keeping at that level that capital expenditure Which is the investment in renewables the investment in electric cars the network assets in our energy system That will help us get there. These are the things that will actually buy us net zero We're turning over the capital stuff of the whole country over the coming 30 years We've tried to do that in our assessments by replacing high carbon assets with low carbon assets As much as we can when those assets reach the end of their natural life. That's what keeps the cost low So that 50 billion a year or thereabouts of investment gets us to net zero But it also does something else which is the really exciting stuff So it also delivers a huge fuel saving to the British economy So we just look at that now you can see that under the line That's Britain not spending on fossil fuels This is the fuel saving and the energy efficiency that goes with that the new more energy efficient Technologies that we're using Over time those savings build up so you can see that over time They're actually coming to the point where they cancel out those investment costs entirely That's really exciting because that has implications for the cost over all of the transition There are also big impacts to the economy from investing at that kind of scale So Mike, can you say something about the economic impacts that go with that? Certainly Chris Of course, we've designed this to be a climate program But it could just as easily be an economic program at the moment This is just what the economy needs. We've got spare capacity low investment high rising unemployment And so this program that boosts activity and boosts employment across the country is just what we need The housing retrofit program alone. We think would add over 200,000 jobs nationwide And of course interest rates are at record lows at the moment as well. So this is a perfect time to invest Normally we might see these upfront costs as a draw on resources But now really they're an opportunity to put them to good use Couple that with the long-term fuel savings that Chris has mentioned And there's a real prospect here that this program could actually boost our GDP So as we tackle climate change the UK could well end up better off As well as healthier in more comfortable homes with cleaner air With more green spaces and with benefits for biodiversity Now we've also run the numbers without assuming any of those benefits And what we see is that at worst We're looking at a very small cost Certainly small when you compare it to the much bigger benefits of tackling climate change In this chart those costs are annualized So the costs of investments are spread over their lifetimes with a return for investors To answer the usual questions we've included all of the elements of cost here So that's things like backup power generation Reinforcing the electricity networks and we've excluded taxes and subsidies which are transfers within the system Rather than the resource costs that this is about And the headline here is that our new analysis has cut the cost estimates again Last year we thought that net zero would cost something like one to two percent of GDP in 2050 Now we think it will be below one percent Six months after our previous analysis New auctions for offshore wind had already beaten our cautious cost estimates So now we're down to a central estimate of around half a percent of GDP That's equivalent to just three or four months of growth lost from the next 100 And we wouldn't be surprised if these fall again The world is increasingly embracing low carbon and as it does so the cost of low carbon technologies is likely to fall And we shouldn't be surprised that the costs are low overall We know we can generate low carbon electricity like from renewables just as cheaply as we can from burning gas And we know that electric cars are cheaper to run We expect them soon to be cheaper to buy as well We simply don't need fossil fuels to access cheap energy anymore Now that doesn't mean that we should ignore the costs or indeed the benefits Really important that those are shared fairly through society and where there are negative effects Like for workers in the oil and gas sector. We need to make sure they're supported through the transition But any notion that we can't afford to make this change is clearly nonsense Thanks so much Mike and that is absolutely one of our most important insights this year a much lower cost overall But of course within that they need to make sure that we distribute that cost and the benefits as fairly as possible So I want to now move on to the changes that we're going to actually see in the uk over that transition to net zero And again hugely exciting bill to take you on this on this kind of journey to net zero So let's kind of walk along that path that we've just been setting out for you over the next 30 years So we begin with these 2019 figures. You can see that we've achieved by 2019 a 41 reduction in uk territorial emissions since 1990 So I want to acknowledge that 2020 is going to be an odd year for all sorts of reasons But it's going to have a big impact on that chart So we are going to see reduced emissions from the pandemic from all the lockdowns that have been driving down particularly our transport emissions That makes and confident predictions about the future. Of course very difficult So we have been prudent about covid. We haven't assumed that those impacts on emissions last Things eventually return to trend They take longer in some sectors than other think about the aviation emissions We're not expecting them to return for a while But the challenge here is not to rely on a pandemic to cut emissions The challenge is to drive change to drive emissions down permanently with a with a set of key changes that last And that's going to take leadership from government So let's march on then to 2025 and roll forward to where we are by that point So we're making good progress by this point on all of the areas that we need to cut emissions And that really is the challenge not progressing single sectors single challenges But a set of changes happening across the economy in concert to reduce emissions By that point coal has been phased out of the power system completely. That's a major moment for the uk, of course New homes are being constructed to the future home standard We've got just under a third of boiler replacements already being low carbon Any new boiler sold from 2025 would need to be hydrogen ready having the option of a hydrogen conversion later We're planting 30 000 hectares a year of new woodland Half of new sales of cars are already electric. We've started trials of zero carbon heavy goods vehicles as well We've got new business models in place for hydrogen production for carbon capture also for greenhouse gas removals now interestingly We're not seeing the emissions reduction from all of that activity yet because that takes time So the trajectory is still quite flat and that's because we're scaling up We're making up for lost ground and all those challenges that we haven't done enough on so far So scaling up is really the theme of the mid 2020s. We're scaling up hydrogen production We're scaling up offshore wind installation scaling up heat pump installation scaling up electric vehicle charging infrastructure We've got the first carbon capture and storage industrial clusters opening production All very exciting. Let's move on to 2030 And this is really a kind of big turning point on the story ahead So emissions have reduced by 64 by 2030 if we include international aviation and shipping if we exclude those emissions it's 68 That's the target that we recommended that the prime minister set for 2030 the uk's n dc 2030 is really the key point. So around that time All new investments all asset purchases all cars all new heating installations All new plant and machinery and businesses are zero carbon So think of that challenge over the next decade to get to that point That's what we need to do to hit the net zero goal on time So asset lies really become important after that We're going to determine the progress about how quickly we can go Depending on how we replace those assets over time in 2030 is a date. We have to get to zero carbon investments by and large Almost a hundred percent of sales of cars and vans are electric by that point battery electrics hybrids very much a niche thing We're hitting a million heat pump installations each year by 2030 And the government has already ended new sales of oil heating in homes We're seeing 11 million insulation measures fitted each year 40 gigawatts of offshore wind is now installed in uk waters. That's one of the challenges that's in the the prime minister's 10-point plan for the uk We have at least five low carbon industrial clusters across the uk And they're capturing serious amounts of of co2 now So 10 million tons a year are being captured in those industrial clustered and stored under the sea safely We're producing 30 terawatt hours of low carbon hydrogen And we've got commercial scale greenhouse gas and we always happening in those clusters too By that point meat consumption has fallen by about a fifth And we're seeing farmland now progressively being flipped over to woodland creation Some energy crop production and of course all of that has to come with appropriate rewards for the farmer Now we reach 2035 and this is really the critical moment So 15 years from now. We're at maximum momentum on our zero carbon journey Hopefully you can see that those metrics on the right hand side Emissions are really falling fast now. We've reduced emissions by four fifths since 1990 The electricity system has grown by a half by that point from today We have stopped burning gas to generate electricity unabated. So we've reached Zero carbon electricity production by 2035 So that is the same date that joe biden has targeted for the us Um, we are seeing 14 million installations of home insulation each year That's substantially reducing the heat demand from uk homes overall Sales of natural gas boilers to all homes. That's new sales End in 2033. So just before that point after that point It's only possible to buy a gas boiler if you live in an area that's scheduled to be converted to hydrogen Or or moved moved across to district heating for all other areas It's going to be heat pumps most likely that will be the the choice of of low carbon heating installation That is a massive new installation market for the uk in industry. We've got steel making turning to zero carbon Hydrogen production has grown to over 100 terawatts a year. So that's a now a serious new component in the uk energy sector We see widespread rollout of carbon capture and storage by that point and that includes For energy from waste plants the places where we're incinerating waste We've reduced our meat consumption by nearly a quarter by 2035 And we might well be substituting that meat with lab grown meat by that point And the area of forest being planted has risen to 50 000 hectares a year. So almost You know a huge shift and almost 60 of uk peatland has been restored with it So big biodiversity benefits that go with that And finally we reached the goal of 2050 and any residual emissions from aviation or agriculture by this point are being offset through emissions removals in the uk That's a big big challenge But one we think can get to this by that point a bit of further diet change 80 of peatland has been restored We continue to plant new woodland at scale, of course throughout the 2040s We've had that low carbon electricity to benefit from We're up to nearly 100 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2050 We also have lots of low carbon hydrogen which we're using throughout the economy particularly for transport And particularly for industry and we're producing that increasingly with zero carbon processes. So electrolysis We're making sparing use of biomass and bioenergy using that particularly where we get the biggest carbon bang for our buck By combining that with carbon capture Crucially what we've done by 2050 is normalize zero carbon. So all new purchases of are zero carbon as a matter of course It's a genuinely net zero society by 2050 That is the plan And in our report we go further to explain the policies that could drive that transition overall And the crucial point about this is it's genuinely feasible It's that's what's so exciting about the thing that we're producing in this latest report But it's also a clue that all of this is hugely challenging and anyone who thinks that reaching that goal of 2050 net zero Isn't challenging hasn't really thought through the implications. I would say of that change over over the next 30 years So let's move on now, Mike And perhaps you could tell us a bit about the energy implications of all that because they really are amazing Thanks, chris. I'll rattle through these but the details are all in the report, of course First gas This is the biggest change from our advice last year We've got less gas use because we've got more contribution from renewable electricity And hydrogen being produced from electrolysis That means that by 2050 while we're only using uh, We're only using gas with carbon capture and storage It's at a lower level than in our previous analysis Overall, it's down around 75 from today So gas is not acting as a bridge fuel. It's a fossil fuel and we need to get away from it Oil will need to fall quickly First from light vehicles like cars and in the longer term from the rest of the economy by 2050 We're only using oil for jet jet fuel in planes. So in total it's down around 85 percent And while oil and gas scale down low carbon energy scales up The electricity sector does the heavy lifting here. It's up around 50 percent by 2030 and by 2050 We think it will at least double it might need to treble if we're also using it to produce low carbon hydrogen or synthetic fuel for planes Worth noting the shorter axis here because electricity is so much more efficient We need a smaller reduction to displace to replace the oil and gas that we've reduced But we can't electrify everything. So we also have an important role for low carbon hydrogen From initial trials in the coming years that scales up rapidly from the mid 2030s and by 2050 The hydrogen sector is around two thirds the size of electricity today That's largely being used in manufacturing in shipping probably as ammonia and as backup power generation for when the wind isn't blowing There might be some as well in trucks and in heating In the early years, we're largely assuming it's produced from blue hydrogen That's that's from gas reforming with carbon capture and storage And in the longer term, we have a bigger role for green hydrogen production from electricity Thanks so much Mike and that brings us full circle really So we want to talk in this last section about climate change itself Which is of course a global challenge and i'm speaking to you today from glass school where Next year we're going to be hosting world leaders to talk about climate changes and what I hope will be The most important of those climate summits that we have had because this is about the progress that we need to make Finally on tackling this issue properly meeting the goals of the paris agreement So that's going to be the challenge for glass school next year I want to spend some time on how we think that story has been changing recently Mike i'm going to come back to you just to talk us through in this final section How that story on climate change how that narrative that we've been talking about has been shifting Actually quite rapidly recently so over to you again Mike Thanks chris, uh, this starts a bit gloomy, but it gets more cheerful So we're already in a bad place and we need to recognize that the world is worn by over one degree And we're seeing the damaging impacts of that in the uk and around the world The science tells us that every fraction of a degree that we add that we add from here will make things worse And without action things were set to get much much worse When the committee started work on this over a decade ago emissions globally were rising relentlessly And we were looking at warming of at least four degrees of center four degrees of Celsius And with a possibility that warming could be as high as six degrees That is quite quite frankly a horrifying prospect that we need to make sure was avoided That now appears to have largely gone The reductions in costs of renewable energy coupled with the pledges to the paris agreement Pointed to roughly flat emissions and that would mean warming of more like three degrees But still with a risk of four degrees Now if we fast forward to now There's been really quite a remarkable change in the last 18 months or so since the uk set our own Net zero target. We're now seeing those spread around the world We've got net zero pledges from the eu from south korea from japan from china Or be it for 2060 not 2050 and we expect one of course from the new us administration in 2021 Together those cover over half of global emissions three quarters of the global economy And if they're delivered with a bit of Spread to the rest of the world Even without rapid change in the near term We could just sneak in under that two degree objective that the world had not so long ago But paris of course is aiming to go further than that. We're trying to keep warming Well below two degrees and that means we need to do more now Cumulative emissions as chris said at the start are what matters for driving the climate So what we do when emissions are at their highest is the most important thing And to have a shot at 1.5 degrees. We need to bend that curve even more We need to deliver those long-term targets and we need to start cutting emissions rapidly right now And that's why what the uk does really matters on this and why this report matters We've set out the most thorough vision yet of the path to net zero and it's a strongly front leaning trajectory By setting off on that path the uk can provide a positive example to encourage others and by delivering it We can we can deploy the actions We can develop the solutions. We can demonstrate those solutions alongside a group of of leading countries That are the things that will be needed across the world tomorrow We don't know what the world will agree to in glasgow But by setting the sixth carbon budget in line with the committee's recommendations By adopting the plans needed to deliver it the uk will be playing our full part Back to you chris Okay, thanks mike So that's it. That's the recommendation and the analysis that we are providing in our latest report and as mike says That's the importance of it. This is a template we think for decarbonizing a modern economy Like the uk and it's one of course that other countries can follow And if that happens then we can have a much more optimistic discussion I hope then we've had recently in glasgow next year So those recommendations are now with government and it's for them to think about whether they can agree with those recommendations And legislate the sixth carbon budget as we've recommended. I hope they do that But I just want to end by saying thanks of course to mike And thanks to my team who have been amazing in helping produce this this really wonderful analysis Thanks also to you for tuning in to listen to it today Please go and download the report Reports, I should say there are more than one. There is a wealth of information there We've also got some tools ready so that you can play with those numbers and really get into them That will give you I think even more information that you can play with Next for the ccc is a focus on how you actually deliver all this That's the really important thing for us So we want to become more of an independent expert on the challenge of delivering those kind of emissions reductions And with it we're going to up our scrutiny on government about the progress that the government is making and Putting those policies in place to deliver those kind of emissions reduction. That's next for now I just want to say thanks so much for tuning in