 This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharisa. Todd Gurley is returning to Georgia to play for the Falcons. Atlanta got a pretty friendly one-year deal and it presents a good opportunity for Gurley in fantasy football. But like Houston, let's not confuse a good opportunity for an outstanding opportunity. Atlanta, over the last two years, they've ranked 22nd and 26th in fantasy scoring at the running back position. You might say, but Todd Gurley is better than what they had before. He's a better running back. And I'd say, sure, but we also know that situation drives running back value more than the running back himself. There have been tons and tons of studies on this. A running back can get more individual volume to boost his fantasy totals and sure, we can see a slight spike in production, especially if a team thinks that they need to utilize their good running back. But offense of line play is huge. How a team calls plays is huge. And I think that latter point is key here. Gurley wasn't amazingly effective last year, but he found the end zone 12 times on the ground and twice through the air. But keep in mind that the Rams were fourth in the NFL in run rate at the goal line while Atlanta ranked 19th. And then on top of that, the Rams ran the fifth most goal line plays. Atlanta ranked 29th. That's not to say that the same thing is going to happen in 2020. It's to say that Todd Gurley was in a pretty advantageous situation last year, despite an offensive line that was a lot worse than previous seasons. And Atlanta is not an automatic upgrade at all, especially if the Falcons continue to lean on the pass a little bit more close to the end zone, even without Austin Hooper. Atlanta is also in a situation where they're not projected to be some powerhouse team. They've got their issues and they're in a division with the Saints who have one of the best rosters in football and the Buccaneers who just got Tom Brady. If there are negative game scripts and we should expect some negative game scripts, then we might not see the Falcons become so much more run heavy to really allow Gurley to hit that 250 carry mark. And then on top of this, Atlanta is still a candidate to take a running back in the draft. So there's an even scarier floor to Gurley's overall outlook if the Falcons get a back with an earlier round pick. It wouldn't be smart in my opinion, but it's still possible. I know that I just sort of crapped on that situation for Todd Gurley, but it was a really, really good landing spot, all things considered. My initial projections have Gurley with 235 attempts, about 61 targets, and if nothing changes, I do think he's got an opportunity to be a lower end RB1 in fantasy this year. But there are risks. He may not be used as much as we think. They could draft a running back and Gurley's knees could end up giving him trouble. He continues to just be a volatile fantasy asset.