 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Super Bowl week is obviously a monster week which meant we had to bring back a monster guest and get JJ Zacharyson back on the show here for Super Bowl 57 breakdown his favorite player props for the Eagles and the cheese We're gonna talk to JJ pick his brain on situations that are in flux Yardage props touchdown props other stuff He's got in his mind to get you ready for Sunday's game This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by JJ Zacharyson check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round commin He late round fantasy football podcast and JJ welcome back to the show. How you doing today? I'm good, man I'm excited, you know, we don't always get Super Bowls that are this tight You know, it does seem like sometimes we get Super Bowls that are very looking very lopsided and then they end up being You know tighter Super Bowls So hopefully we don't get the opposite happen here where it looks like it's tight on paper It's tight all of that and then we get some sort of blowout one way or the other But it looks like on paper like it's gonna be a very very fun Super Bowl. So I'm excited. Yeah I'm too my numbers had this game being super tight They have the total super high twos like that's very exciting like from a I prefer offense Like from that perspective as well good for player props because Unders are great values a lot of time But they are a sweat to bet. So we'll be talking about JJ's favorite bets, but JJ like for me I always view January to March is being my summer because that's the downtime between football and baseball starting But like I feel like for you the offseason doesn't begin to like post draft because like you've got like your prospect guide coming out To before the this the combine and stuff like that So I feel like you might almost be busier this time of year. Yeah, there's definitely there's definitely some stuff going on You know the NFL draft coming up And and prospect season being here for for dynasty fantasy football in particular, but it's really fun It's just a change of pace, you know, we go through that like weekly gauntlet During the season and in the regular season by the end of it. You're like, this is becoming so monotonous I'm ready for this the end. I need a change of pace a little bit and at least that's what prospect season does Right lights that fire under you to to to get that work done and get it finished. So I'm really excited about it I love prospecting. I love working within the model that I built for running backs and wide receivers and yeah the prospect guide Now will be out March 13th. You can pre-order it though right now on late round.com Okay, so you've got a full month ahead of just jamming in which it sounds like I mean, that's that's fun work at least It's not like a like during the season It's deadline every day deadline every day deadline every day having a faraway deadline is like tougher for me to motivate myself But like it is more fun to have that kind of a loose loose deadline for sure So you can find that again late round calm to get the draft guide from JJ I got mine last year got Isaiah Pacheco in all my dynasty leagues pretty much even the one I'm in with you I think Yeah, sorry about that, but definitely did help me out a lot as well. We'll talk about I'm sure Pacheco At some point during the podcast Who won that league Jim? I don't recall. I didn't have to pay you like 360 bucks recently like that PayPal's hurting the PayPal is hurting that is for sure which reminds me to pay durrs, too. I should probably do that Okay payouts to that leak. I'm a bad commissioner. We'll get those payouts Done later on today We'll talk to JJ about Pacheco props and much more in just one second at first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to Recovering the spread because full week of NFL shows this week We talked to Joe Straski about weird props for the Super Bowl talking halftime props talking anthem props talking Gatorade colors Joe's done the research because I haven't so we talked to Joe about that yesterday We have Pamela Maldonado talking matchups for Eagles and Chiefs tomorrow Ryan Williams breaking down the full game with us on Thursday To get all the angles covered for Super Bowl 57 all those over on the cover in the spread Podcasts feed as they are posted and also up on the fandal YouTube page So make sure subscribe wherever you want to take in the podcast get a piece of ten million dollars in bonus bets with Fandals kick of destiny all you do is bet five dollars on Super Bowl 57 And if Gronk kicks a field goal live during the game you'll get a piece of ten million dollars in bonus bets It doesn't matter if you're new to fandal already have an account Gronk kick you win It's as simple as that so don't miss out on the kick of destiny on fandal America's number one sportsbook Just place any five dollar bet on the Super Bowl to get a piece of ten million dollars in bonus bets then tune in live During the game to see Gronk's kick of destiny make every moment more fandal official sportsbook Part of the NFL must be 21 plus in select states minimum five dollar wage required award may vary minimum five dollars Projected max twenty dollars bonus award issued is not with probable bonus bet that expire in seven days All participants are eligible for bonus award restrictions apply see full terms at fandal.com slash sports book gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next up to five three three four two in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 522 4700 or in KS Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in a Maryland MD gambling health org in West Virginia 1-800 gambler net and in New York 1-877-8 hope and why or text hope and why now JJ We'll talk about the props in a second But before we do that It's important to get kind of like a top-down view of this game because if you think the cheese went in a blowout or if Didn't the Eagles win a close game that will dictate some of the props you want to look at here So before we talk about that, what's your overall view of Eagles versus cheese? Yeah, you know my overall view is that I think this game You know, I think the line makes sense that it's as tight as it is And I think that there could be a lot of points that are scored in this game You know, of course matchups matter Of course defenses matter to some degree But I think that what research has shown is that Offenses drive games in football if you have, you know, two good defenses But two really good quarterbacks and two really good passing attacks and offenses generally speaking We should lean on those offenses more than the defense in terms of how the game is going to unfold and play out So, you know, if you look at the Eagles, you know, I think they won't have that much trouble running on the Chiefs So, you know, that could extend drives and allow them to score a lot of points And you know, it's true that the Eagles are first and past defense by a lot of metrics and they're Second this season. They were second this season in pressure rate. That's not great But you know, the guy that they're facing a quarterback is someone who can really combat those things I mean Patrick Mahomes top five quarterback under pressure this season by expected points And he did well against top defenses this year top past defenses this year He threw for 328 and 352 yards against Denver A top 10 defense secondary that is he put up 423 yards and this is against San Francisco earlier in the season, but it's still that San Francisco defense Which yes, you can throw on them a little bit more I mean their front is really what you're afraid of but to be able to throw for over 400 yards against the 49ers is pretty pretty bonkers So, you know, that that team also was fourth best in the secondary court of number fires metrics And then the other thing to point out here that I'm really intrigued by with the Chiefs passing attack is the Eagles Have great perimeter cornerbacks. That's been the case all season long And what you find is that teams generally throw to the middle of the field into the slot Against Philadelphia because of those corners. And so what does the cheap? What did what does the Chiefs offense do it loves the targets target Travis Kelsey in the middle of the field It loves to use their slot guys They had the fourth highest slot rate offensively in the league this year And in the Eagles meanwhile gave up the highest slot rate in terms of targets in the NFL Because of those corners and those perimeter guys So I'm really intrigued by that matchup I think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball as a result of that basically because of Travis Kelsey in his existence Yeah, and so I think all of that combined means that we're gonna see a game. That's tight That's high scoring and both offenses should be able to move the rock I do think at the end of the day, you know, we're not really talking about this is more of a you know Player prop show I think at the end of the day the Chiefs are gonna win But I do think that it will be close and that's pretty in line with the betting markets Obviously the Moneyline does favor the Eagles right now, but I've got the Chiefs Moneyline too So I'm on board of that But in general it sounds like you're expecting the bookmakers have a good read on this game Which is a good thing to know in terms of our props now During the year when we had you on our show every Friday We talked a lot about fluid situations and we talked about those because fluid situations are spots where bookmakers can make a mistake There's ambiguity and we can take advantage of those in terms of betting props looking at this game specifically Are there any situations in this Super Bowl where you think we can potentially Get value in the pro market because there's a lack of certainty. I think there's two situations and they're both the backfields for both teams You know, this is this is a situation where we don't have bell cow backs in the Super Bowl I mean, Miles Sanders has had a great season, but he's not a bell cow back I think is over under Receiving prop right now is like four and a half yards because he's not that much for receiver You know, if you look at what happened with Philadelphia in the playoffs or what we've seen They're using Kenneth Gainwell more now I do want to throw the caveat out there because I know people are listening to this and they're saying well They blew the 49ers out they blew the Giants out of courts Kenneth Gainwell is gonna run more in those scenarios Well last or the last time we saw Philadelphia Standards only played five more first half snaps and Kenneth Gainwell the game before that it was a little bit more Lopsided but they were using Gainwell more and Gainwell has been pretty effective I mean, he's had a pretty good playoff and so I do think that you know If you look at the regular season Sanders was basically doubling up Gainwell and snaps And that really hasn't been the case as much, you know in this game And then also, you know, you can say oh, but they blew those teams out I mean, that's still part of the range of outcomes here for Philadelphia because we now know that if they do You know get a lead they blow out the chiefs if that happens, you know that can happen Then they will probably lean on other running backs in that backfield to keep guys fresh Especially if they're exploiting that matchup that I talked about earlier where they should be able to run on the chiefs And so I do think that that's definitely a situation to monitors that that eagles backfield And then meanwhile, I mean, this is like full circle for me, Jim You know, I was very high on Isaiah Pacheco as a prospect at least compared to the market I wasn't thinking that he was gonna be a starting running back in the Super Bowl But you know, I really liked Pacheco as a prospect really fun to see His rookie season play out the way that it did and then you see what happened in the AFC championship Where he played 56% of Kansas City snaps. That was the most on the season for him He also 15% target share in that game against the Bengals during the regular season He hadn't had a single game of above a 9% target share I mean, this was like by far a change for Isaiah Pacheco in that backfield for Kansas City They used them a ton against Cincinnati. So this is a situation to monitor You know, I'll have a take on this in just a second But it's definitely a situation to monitor because they did use their running backs between him and McKinnon, Jerick McKinnon differently in that AFC championship game And I think the fun thing about both these backfields is you can take a stand There is still wiggle room to do so. Like if you think that Kenneth Gainwell actually has eaten into Miles Sanders, you know, his share 19 and a half for his rushing yardage prop is not low. I got a 16 and a half So like you could have gotten a better number earlier on, but you can still exploit that As far as Miles Sanders, his role is going to decrease 61 and a half is still available there But then also like if you think that Pacheco proved himself as being the preferred back in that conference championship, McKinnon's rushing prop is 20 and a half That's that's that's like kind of high for him I've been taking his unders like consistently recently on the rushing yardage specifically Like that's a gettable number on the under Even if he hasn't lost ground to Pacheco at all Also introduce CEH potentially. I don't think he'll play a role, but like he's he's hypothetically there I think the JJ the situations you're discussing are still ones we can exploit in this market Which to me is the best case scenario for us. Yeah, absolutely Okay, so let's talk about yardage props here usage props So you can talk about pass attempt stuff like that anything you're seeing the board You like whether it be those situations or elsewhere. Yeah, you know, I'll just extend that conversation a little bit You mentioned Jerick McKinnon and his rushing prop I'm really intrigued by Jerick McKinnon's receiving prop and I'm also intrigued by Isaiah Pacheco's receiving prop if we're being honest I think both of them you could potentially go over with and here's the logic with McKinnon Okay, so his prop right now is 22 and a half receiving yards over on Fandley get minus 114 there You know, I think the books are definitely weighing last week's Pacheco performance a little which is understandable But they're weighing that performance last or you know the last time we saw this team You know when we have a larger sample size of the chiefs using McKinnon a lot more than they did in that game The Eagles also are a top half team in the league and adjusted target share allowed to running max So teams do target their running max a little bit heavier against Philadelphia than they do Typically, which is not that surprising whenever you consider what Philadelphia secondary looks like You know McKinnon in the regular season in games where he didn't get to a 40% snapshot Which was only five of them to be clear He averaged 22 receiving yards per game in those contests when he got a 40% snap share It was 33 and a half So if you think that what we saw the last time we saw the chiefs was somewhat of an an anomaly which I do think it was Some what I don't know if we're gonna see Isaiah Pacheco in that exact role in the Super Bowl just from a sample size standpoint He's a rookie too I mean, there's a lot of reason as to why you would want to lean on someone like McKinnon over Pacheco At least more than what we saw last time But you know, he hit this over in 10 of 17 regular season games and in a couple of those games He barely played just just because it was like week 18 when things didn't matter stuff like that So, you know, I I think that we've looked at the playoffs where they play Jacksonville They didn't really need Jerick McKinnon to be this monster through the arrogance Jacksonville And then last time we saw the chiefs was the Pacheco game So I think that's sort of just playing this recency bias role with McKinnon McKinnon's receiving role You know down the stretch and during the second half of the season was bonkers I mean, it was really really good And so I think that you could hit the over here still at 22 and a half for Jerick McKinnon But I wouldn't be shocked if Pacheco goes over to because I think that's how this chiefs team needs to attack the Eagles I think they're gonna use Travis Kelsey a ton I mean you can go over on Kelsey props Basically the way that I view just to give you a general overview with the chiefs Is I think that you can go over with these running backs You can go over with Travis Kelsey and then I'm not that opt as optimistic about the wide receivers It's just you know, if you want a general just in vibe about how I'm viewing them So I wouldn't be shocked if Pacheco goes over with this either But I do like McKinnon at least receiving rushing different story, but at least in the receiving side I'm still going that direction and then another one that I do like is Patrick Mahomes the throne interception That's at minus 122 right now You know those these aren't quite even odds obviously, but he's thrown a pick and nine of 19 games this year So that's 47% of his matchups now factor an opponent and layer that on top you get Philadelphia They're the best past defense in football according to a lot of metrics And if you look at games that Mahomes threw a pick or turn the ball over a lot this season It's been kind of matchup related. I mean a team That that that can either get to the quarterback or has a good secondary Those are the teams that Mahomes, you know turn the ball over against the 49ers the Bronx He had three picks against the Broncos. I mean, this is a it's Patrick Mahomes We know that he will take risks We know that he will be aggressive and he's done that in Super Bowls in the past too So this is this to me. I think is a pretty pretty firm bet at minus 122 Yeah minus 122 on the Mahomes interception prop Jalen Hertz the yes is plus 106 So it's I find that fascinating. It's kind of a reflection of team philosophies The way they operate hurts not going to take as many risks, you know Because if you got Devontae Smith and and AJ Brown, you don't have to whereas Mahomes seeing a lot of man coverage Being aggressive throwing downfield stuff like that that can all lead to interception So I think that those markets very interesting and they do make a lot of sense to me as well Now we've also got some touchdown props. I think that I've had trouble JJ finding anything here to be fully honest I have not bet a single one yet. Maybe you can help me here any touchdown props. You bet you like for this week Yeah, it's tough Touchdown props were always tough I mean, this is easily the area on this show over the sea, you know throughout the season the yardage stuff Was great the touchdown props were not great I mean, that's just how it goes with touchdowns often, but you know the one normal I have two for you the one normal one Dallas Goddard I like as an anytime touchdown score at plus 175 on Fandle It's actually better juice than what you're gonna get over on like a DK or something at this point Yeah, but Kansas City was below average and tight end touchdowns allowed per game this year They ranked 13th and adjusted tight end target share allowed They've been weaker against the middle of the field even though, you know You have some question marks in the secondary, you know the middle of the field really is somewhat you can exploit the chiefs defensively I mean you can do the same against Philadelphia to some degree But you can definitely do it against against the chief So I like Dallas Goddard at plus 175 and then my fun dart throw. Why not? It's the Super Bowl Let's have some fun with it. No a gray first touchdown of the game plus 4500 over on D. I think a little bit worse over on Fandle But you know look we have injuries throughout this Kansas City Chiefs offense at pass catcher You have these wide receiver injuries and not only that but we know that Kansas City should take a tight and heavy approach against this Eagles defense Realistically no a gray over his last two he's run 18 and 17 routes You know, it hasn't been targeted that much because it's no a gray and they have Travis Kelsey in the offense But like I said, it's a matchup to exploit the Eagles allowed the sixth highest adjusted target share to tight ends this season So why not throw that dart and have some fun on the first touchdown? I mean you did hit my homes and that 49 or Super Bowl. He was 20 to 1 first So this is way longer. This is way longer. Yeah, so he the way it worked was he had a scramble got a Man JJ almost hit that and I was like Poseidon then they ran the option with him and Damian Williams I believe at the goal line in the home sport. He kept it. He scored So your track record of first touchdown scores and the Super Bowl is very good I think no a gray is very good as We're it's just it's Jim's dynasty discussion That's what the show is today because we're talking Pacheco. We're talking no a gray I think I have both and 75% of my dynasty leagues So if we can jack up the the price on these guys before the offseason, I'd be much obliged He's 41 to 1 and Fandle still a really long price I think you know shop around get the best number you can but even 41 is not that bad I saw some talk around Jody Fortson. He's 60 to 1 kind of a similar thought process there I think with canaries Tony Likely playing with juju being healthy. I think you can probably cross that one off. I think that Gray is probably the better option despite it being a shorter number. I just think no a gray is a very good football player So that's more than happy to ride with you on that one anything else change it because we've got a an expansive menu for Super Bowl 57. We've got I don't know if you have a read on the Gatorade color be my guest. I don't Anything else you're seeing on the board you like for this week You know, I was thinking about it and I'm like looking through things and I'm sitting there and I'm like I gotta I gotta try to figure out something You know for it's usually you know my go-to would just be the coin toss because you know that it's just a 50-50 thing You know, you can just play into it that way Whereas there's more research involved with when it when it comes to the Gatorade color and stuff like that So I'll leave guys like Joe and his expertise you guys can listen to him. He's done a lot more research than me I'll stick to the traditional stuff. I'll look at my projections and be super nerdy about it I love that Joe did give insights on like Rihanna's attire They also like the the hat color for the anthem singer like Joe's talk to people who are like fans of this guy And it's like getting scouting reports. Yeah, I'm not doing that. Well, I can't know your role I know my role is not doing that. So I'm gonna stay away as well We will let Joe handle all those but I think a pretty good menu for this week. We got McKinnon over 22 and a half receiving yards my homes. They're a pick minus 122 Dallas Goddard any time touchdown plus 175 and of course, Noah Gray my guy 45 to 1 for the first touchdown that is JJ Zachary's and make sure you check him out on Twitter at late round QB Find his podcast the late round a fantasy football podcast And also check out the prospect guide as it comes out in the middle of March to get set for the NFL draft and have a lot Of fun with that JJ. Good luck to you with playoff contest sounds like you're doing okay in those so far Good luck with those. Good luck with DFS betting everything and looking forward to having you on once again here soon Thanks, Jim. Appreciate it. Alrighty. Once again, JJ's on Twitter at late round QB I'm on Twitter at Jim Son, as we are back once again tomorrow Pamela Maldonado was singing by talk about matchups She likes how those pertaining to props and the overall betting for cheese versus Eagles will be back once again tomorrow to talk to you About that so subscribe to covering the spread to get that as it goes up This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network