 Hello and welcome to CMC Mark, it's on Friday the 30th of November and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 3rd of December and we've got quite a bit of event risk coming up. First and foremost we have the OPEC meeting, we have a couple of central bank meetings and we also have US payrolls and I think the payrolls data will be particularly interesting in light of the recent softening of tone on a part of the Federal Reserve with respect to the outlook for US rates for 2019. I think the fact that we've seen the US dollar finish the week slightly softer on a slightly softer tone, I think has raised expectations that while we may get a rate rise in December the outlook for rates going into 2019 is probably slightly less certain than it was a week ago and I think that's fairly welcome. What we've seen in terms of the rebound in US markets is we've seen a fairly decent week for the S&P 500 and the Dow and the NASDAQ, slightly less certain I think in terms of how European markets have performed as we head into the weekend, there's still concerns about the G20 and I think that's really where the main focus will be as we head into a new week, whether or not there will be any sort of consensus out of the G20 as we head into December in what is likely to be I think a fairly quiet month given the volatility that we've seen over the past few weeks. So if we look ahead I think for the coming week and particularly I think in European markets we have seen a little bit of a rebound over the course of the past week or so but that rebound now starts to be running out of steam. We've seen it here in the German DAX where having rebounded off the lows of 11,000 we've fallen short of the 11 and a half thousand and started to slip back. Key line in the sand still remains I think for European markets around this 11,000 area on the DAX, if we look at a similar support level on the FTSE 100 we've got the key support in and around 6850, 6870, a little bit of a disappointment heading into the weekend but at the moment I think the momentum still remains fairly positive no more so than when we look at the S&P 500 and the really big support line that I've drawn in from the lows on this particular chart here in momentum does appear to be starting to turn a little bit positive on the oscillator but ultimately much will depend on whether this key support line here holds in the short to medium term. But looking ahead to the coming week obviously we've seen a big decline in oil prices and that is really why I think front and center will be the OPEC meeting on the 5th of December. Now the sharp dive in oil prices over the last eight weeks has been extraordinarily painful for OPEC members in particular Saudi Arabia who've been fairly vocal about the prospects that we could well see a production cut. We've seen prices come down peak to trough to around about over 30% coming to test the 200 day moving average but also retracing 50% of the entire up move from the 2016 lows of around about $27 a barrel to the peaks just shy of 87 so the big level I think on Brent crude is around about $57 a barrel so keeping a close eye on that there has been some talk that Russia might come on board with respect to some form of production cut and I think that's why we've seen a bit of a rebound in the past day or so. Certainly good in terms of inflation expectations and I think that's why we may see we have started to see a little bit of softening and headline inflation and that's prompted a little bit of a pull back on the hawkish rhetoric from central banks more broadly if we look at European inflation headline inflation softened from 2.2% to 2% and we've seen a little bit of a softening of tone from US policymakers as shown by the latest Fed minutes and obviously the recent comments from not only Fed chair Jerome Powell but also vice-chair Richard Clarida which brings me on to a couple of important rate meetings that are coming up. Bank of Canada rate meeting on the 5th of December and also the RBA rate meeting on the 4th of December. Now in November the RBA left rates unchanged at one and a half percent 27th month in a row. They cited weak household consumption despite further falls for the unemployment rate. At the moment unemployment remains at a fairly low level pretty much across the board. Globally Germany unemployment is at a record low and US unemployment is at a multi-year low as is UK unemployment. This week's payrolls numbers are going to be fairly important in terms of the outlook for I think not only whether or not we start to see a slowdown in the rate of jobs growth in November and I think that's unlikely given the amount of temporary hiring that goes on in the holiday season in the US but also in terms of wages growth which have moved above 3% in the US for the first time in quite some time. We're expecting to see a further development on that score in the November numbers with average wages expected to increase to 3.2%. The headline number for non-farm payrolls we saw a big rebound in jobs growth in October to 250k but a large part of that I think was a rebound from a hurricane-induced slowdown that we saw in September of 134,000. Headline numbers for US payrolls were expected to come in around about the average for the past few months around about 205,000. So not really expecting to see too many surprises in the payrolls numbers though we could see a further increase in wages growth which is welcome at a time when oil prices are falling and headline inflation does appear to be showing signs of topping out. A non-farm payrolls is due out on the 7th of December. Talking about the Bank of Canada obviously the decline in oil prices is good news for inflation probably not such good news for the Canadian dollar. We can see that borne out in this daily chart here the Canadian dollar has been weakening progressively since it made those levels of around about 128 in early October the end of September but it is running into a very very big resistance level around about 133,8134. So I think even if the Bank of Canada does nothing which I fully expected to do absolutely nothing the weakness on the Canadian dollar is likely to run into resistance at around about 134. It's also a fairly big week for manufacturing PMIs. Recent Chinese manufacturing PMI slowed again in November coming in at stagnation at around about 50. We are going to get another reading for Japanese manufacturing PMI that hit a two-year low last week. We've got the latest Germany and France flash numbers final numbers and we'll also get US ISMs as well over the course of the next few days. Not expecting to see a great deal of volatility as we head into December I think if most investors haven't made their money already they're likely to take they're unlikely to take large scale big positions as we head into December but certainly in the context of dollar CAD it's going to be a very interesting week given the US payroll numbers the Bank of Canada rate decision and the OPEC meeting. Obviously we've got the background noise from Brexit negotiations and a likely in the lead up or the countdown to this meaningful vote which is likely to come out on the 11th of December. The pound is suffering quite significantly on the back of that. The pounds had a disappointing week it's likely to find upside very difficult. Divisions remain as wide as ever between the various camps and we've now got to the point where the two main party leaders Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn can't even agree on which TV channel to have their debate on the EU Brexit deal such as the state of affairs here in the UK. Anyway I'll leave that as my parting shot thanks very much for listening. It's Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets.