 So we're joined by Jeremy Brown and we'll introduce in one moment the withdrawal of the UK from the EU in 2019 as we all know pose an enormous threat to UK business in particular to the UK's financial services industry And more particularly to the city of London Uncertainty felt in Ireland is magnified in the UK exacerbated by the more than fluid political context UK business arguably struggled to find its voice Before and after the referendum however in recent months and informed by perhaps a change political landscape UK business has begun to find its voice and to argue Greater clarity trust and flexibility in the UK approach to the Brexit negotiations UK financial services employ a million people contributing 70 billion pounds to Taxation in the UK the city of London is in the vanguard of that industry and as appointed our guest as its special representative to the UK at this critical time Jeremy's role is to represent the UK based financial and professional services sectors at the highest levels in Brussels and EU member states With policymakers regulators central bankers MEPs commissioners and officials Jeremy himself was previously a member of the British government He was Minister of State in the foreign Commonwealth office with responsibility for British relations with Asia and Latin America And in the home office with responsibility for crime prevention and he was the member of Parliament for Taunton from 2005 to 2015 So please if you give a welcome to Jeremy Branson. It's very nice to be here again. I'm flattered that you're all come to this event I was here about eight or nine months ago. I was on holiday in Ireland last month, but that doesn't Count to the West Coast. I was here in Dublin about eight or nine months ago and events of Have developed obviously since then so I plan to spend the next 15 20 minutes talking about How we see things from the current standpoint in London and how things might progress in the next year or so with regards to Brexit, which is the Event that has overshadowed All others in terms of city of London and its wider thinking Well, let me start at sort of first principles, which is that Our view in the city of London is that London is a pan-European asset. It is not a narrowly British asset and We encourage the EU side in any negotiations not to think of London as As an advantage held by the people on the other side of the table in other words the EU Shouldn't measure its success in the negotiations by the degree to which it succeeds in diminishing the city of London and instead to try and encourage people to think of London as Europe's global financial centre Europe's gateway to global markets and London can continue to be a great asset for European business after Britain has left the European Union and What is more London is not easily Replicatable even in the medium term in other words the alternative for the foreseeable future to London being Europe's global financial centre is Europe not having a global financial centre or at least not one that is as comprehensive and Admired or respected in global terms as London is today. I say all of that not to Show off or be boastful or though it may come across as both of those things but to Try and impress upon people wherever I go across Europe. I visited every member state in the European Union at least once that London is is a global scale asset. We in Europe have seven percent of the world's Population, but if you ask people what are the big financial centres of the world they say New York London? Asia it's a bit more Singapore Hong Kong So we with seven percent of the world's population have one of the definite standout global financial centres arguably the most important financial centre anywhere in the world and Although it will obviously change our relationship with the rest of Europe that Britain will no longer be in the European Union It need not necessarily mean that London cannot continue to act for the wider European economy. So that is my sort of Basic fundamental starting point because what I encourage people to try and think of is that other financial centres have Opportunities that arise as a result of Brexit. I don't think anybody in London is pretending that nothing Will change as a result of Britain voting to leave the European Union but that those opportunities are best served by having a approach towards London that is Complementary or a partnership based approach rather than one which is has a more zero sum analysis and assumes that London's loss is always somebody else's gain Not least because Europe doesn't exist in a bubble in global terms and it may well be that businesses in London come to the conclusion that if Europe wishes to degrade its global scale financial centre They better go to a continent which doesn't wish to degrade its global scale financial centre and that some of the jobs that leave London migrate to New York or they migrate into Asia, which after all has Half the world's population more than half the world's population and a lot of the fastest-growing economies and that we shouldn't assume that we have a sum total of Financial services jobs Here in the continent of Europe and what we're arguing about is how they're distributed across the continent We have to also think in terms of our Collective economic well-being and by collective in terms of this conversation I mean Britain having a collective ongoing interest with those of the economies of the other 27 member states of the European Union so what are the City of London objectives in this Negotiation and we identify three and so let me for the substance what I'm going to say Dwell on each of those. They are very broad categories almost so broad that they that they open up whole other levels of discussion but our first of all our biggest objective is that we carry on having we Britain and we London carry on having a comprehensive trading relationship with the rest of our continent after Britain has formally left the European Union and We I think have to acknowledge that it will as I say be different We will according to the Template laid down by the British government Britain will not be in the single market anymore and obviously Being in the single market is materially different from not being in the single market, but that nevertheless We hope and believe that the EU can see Britain as its greatest external partner and It's most important trading relationship as well as other Relationships beyond our immediate scope in the City of London After Brexit and that the City of London is central to that relationship so we very much want to see a trade agreement that involves a Substantial chapter on services generally and financial services specifically and it's not limited as some trade agreements are to more limited scope on goods more narrowly Which is obviously in the British Interest because more of our economy is service-based than the average across the European Union But we see that as being mutually advantageous for all parties and when I go around the EU what I commonly encounter is a willingness to have a comprehensive Trading agreement people differ on how long it will take to get there Precisely what nature it may Have in the final analysis, but I think there is an acknowledgement that it makes sense for everybody for this To for us to have a a workable trading relationship between the EU and By far and away the biggest economy in the continent of Europe that will not be in the EU Namely Britain after Britain has left the European Union And I think there's also a willingness for it to be a tailor-made relationship even though obviously that will be harder than Trying to have an off-the-peg solution in other words there isn't an off-the-peg solution There isn't a way of taking a document and crossing out the words Norway or the words Canada and putting the words UK and instead and saying great that's done and dusted we'll use that as the basis that the relationship between Britain and the rest of the EU will be a unique relationship much more comprehensive than the EU Has with other external parties and therefore it will require Even though it would be painstaking to get there a bespoke agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom, and I think that is Widely expected or accepted as a desirable end objective The second of our goals is that we should have some sort of Meaningful and smooth transitional period which enables us to get from where we are today To that end point that I just described Now when I go around the European Union although people do accept that we will need to have a particular Bespoke agreement for the final trade deal. What is not accepted is that there will be a bespoke arrangement for the interim transitional arrangements What is widely said to me, and I think this is increasingly Becoming a settled view in Britain as well is that any transitional arrangements will have to be based on some existing model Now it may be a variant on an existing model. I think it is likely to be a variant on an existing model But nevertheless it will not be a model designed from scratch not least because we have to Negotiate the terms of the departure and we have to negotiate the final permanent deal And so to give ourselves a whole third area by having to negotiate from scratch an interim deal I think a lot of people think is Impossible in in terms of the time constraints and the capacity on both sides and the city of London would like to have a Meaningful transitional arrangement Announced sooner rather than later as well because the longer we delay The less valuable it becomes in business planning terms, and I think what people Broadly envisage And would like is some sort of roadmap if you like to get us as I say from where we are now to where we might be in Four or five years time So Britain will leave the European Union on the current table in March timetable in March 2019 By which time we will obviously have needed to negotiate the terms of departure Nothing else we will have to have negotiated by then but it would be obviously Very worrying for people on the British side and the Irish side and and more widely across the EU if we hadn't Negotiated any form of future relationship at the point where we left where on the Tuesday Britain was a full member of the single market the European Union on the Wednesday We had no relationship with the EU at all would obviously be alarming and disruptive for business as well as for other areas of society so If we're not able to step straight in 2019 from being a full member the EU to a full comprehensive trade agreement And I've met nobody in the EU who thinks that that is viable within the time scale We are going to need some sort of bridging arrangement to get across to that end point And I think you need to know two things really when in life when you step onto a bridge One is how long the bridge is and B is roughly where it's going So we will need to have some agreement up front about how long this bridge last for People seem to think two years to three years Probably pushing it going beyond three probably some people in the EU side as well who would like this to be resolved reasonably quickly consistent with trying to get a Business like resolution. So it's not just I think on the British side a desire to Press on a bit with getting this resolved But obviously has to be long enough to be meaningful. So maybe and politically acceptable, which is always a calculation So let's Save the sake of argument to two and a half three years something like that feels about right Businesses would probably like it to be longer, but as I say some considerations need to be balanced And I think if we have not got to the point where we know what the future deal looks like by March 2019 Which we won't have done and which in any case would make the need for a bridge Largely redundant if we had We do need to have some sort of broad idea about what is at the other end of the bridge before we step on to it I don't just mean we Britain. I think it's in the interest of all parties the analogy I sometimes use is We we will needed to have designed the architecture of the Future relationship the basic house even if this house is not yet fit for human habitation the rooms rule empty We know in rough terms what it looks like by March 2019 and we can use the bridging periods to Fit out the rooms and make it fit for human habitation two or three years Down the line. So that is what? What I think people in the city of London are broadly hoping for and envisage being a workable Root from getting from where we are now To a future relationship, of course, you have people who say well, that's not long enough to negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement There will always be People who will feel that more time is necessary, but of course they have to be balanced against as I say other considerations not least Political considerations where they're not absolute truths, but where I suspect There will be some people on the British side that will say having voted to leave the European Union in June 2016 If five years later Britain has not Fully left the organization that feels like for a lot of voters in Britain. I think that quite a long period For the British government to have delivered in full the outcome of the referendum. So the city has to Be sensitive to the wider political dynamic that both the British government and the European Union Obviously alert to in all of their activities and thoughts and then the final area for us is not really a Discussion we need to have with the European Union as much as with the British government Which is the view in the city of London that London's success is dependent on being a highly internationalized outward-looking global hub of activity that can attract people Entrepreneurial innovative creative people from around the world Including from around our own continent. I think it's widely accepted that We will not have absolute freedom of movement with the European Union after Britain's left the EU With one big caveat, which is the country. I'm standing in now where it seems to be. I thought for a while actually there may be some Opposition elsewhere in the European Union to a common travel area applying between one member state namely Ireland and the UK post-Brexit But I've not heard that Even even countries that have a very large number of their citizens living in the UK who you might think would say well Hey, wait a second. Why did the Irish getting a better deal than us? I thought the whole point is we're meant to have unity among the 27 And now we suddenly find out that the island Irish have managed to negotiate their own agreement I haven't heard that so I shouldn't I shouldn't talk about in case people start but so With with the big exception of Ireland for all kinds of the obvious historical reasons that predate Either Ireland or UK becoming members of the EU With the exception of Ireland, we are obviously not going to have complete freedom of movement between the UK and the rest of the EU But the city of London would like to have as Liberal market-based Immigration system as the British government feels able to deliver and we believe it's very important for our success in the future Just as an indication about 30% of people in the city of London are not British people who work there It's hard to get a precise measurement. It's about that roughly a third But which actually quite interestingly a minority of those are from elsewhere in the European Union including Ireland There's a lot of Americans and Japanese and others so Of that 30% it's about 60% to the rest of the world and about 40% to the rest of the European Union But it's a highly internationalised center And can only succeed on that basis and we don't just mean Attracting people who are paid millions of pounds a year to run big banks By and large they seem able to look after themselves But also of course in numerical terms. We're talking very small numbers of people What people in the city of London are more anxious about is being able to attract clever dynamic Young people not not necessarily young but often are young Who have the ability to be great wealth creators in the future? Even if they haven't yet got to the point where they've created any great wealth and of course It's very hard to design an immigration system Which measures future potential and therefore our nervousness is that we will have a too inflexible a system and for example a you know Logically innovative clever Estonian Who has got a proposition up and running in his or her home country? And who might currently go to London to expand that proposition may be disincentivised to do so in the future And that causes more nervousness. I think in London than what you might think in terms of higher paid top-level staff We'll say to people or maybe I'll conclude on this thought say to people that we shouldn't measure our success by Assuming that we reach some sort of evolutionary end point in financial services provision in June 2016 and Our task is to try and make sure that nothing changes for the rest of time because we'd cracked it We had achieved a winning formula The reality is that city of London financial services business generally is always evolving as a constant organic Rolling Darwinian dimension to it and if Britain had voted to stay in the European Union It wouldn't it's not the case that nothing would have changed in the ten years afterwards who's to say how many people would be employed by Barclays or HSBC or any other organization in the city of London ten years after the referendum That depends on all kinds of factors to do with global competitiveness To do with innovation lot of factors not directly in the gift of Politicians what London needs to try and do is make sure that it remains the indispensable Centre for financial services activity certainly in Europe and I'd say in the world and that people go to London because they see it as being a Hub city that is not replicated anywhere else As I say certainly in this continent and further afield and that's the task for us The task for us is to think how can we Be the center that businesses in Ireland will value five years ten years fifteen years after Britain has left the European Union And that does rely to some extent on our relationship with our near neighbors It relies on the policies we implemented a domestic level in Britain itself and it relies on our the disposition of our businesses their mindset their ability to be innovative and think globally and For us I think a lot of people in London feel very comfortable with the partnership with Dublin and with Ireland See it as having Flourished in recent decades Don't in any way Want to see any Diminution of of that relationship in the future and can see the benefits of having a partnership arrangement that we Can see with their own eyes as we travel around Dublin now. So As I say, it's very good to be here. It's a sort of meeting of minds obviously Ireland has to plow its own furrow Ireland has to Discharge its responsibilities as one of the 27 We're not asking for special favours in terms of the way the Irish behave towards London and the British As distinct from how other countries in the EU behave towards London and the British But we do value the relationship that we have built over many years and we see a strong working relationship and strong Complementarity after Britain has left the EU