 All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week, had a good weekend, all that good stuff. I would say a couple of good setups last week. We had Tesla calls that we were looking at, did very well on Monday, had a 6% rally. Also had CVS calls which continued its breakout pretty well. I would say it still has some more room to go up to the 83s, so keep that on watch. Another one we were looking at was AAL, American Airlines, it did break that channel. So we thought it could see some downside but eventually after FOMC, it did rally back up, reclaim its trend and invalidate the thesis. So unfortunately that one didn't work. Another play we had last week was TLT calls. I did alert that one in the chat or in the Discord as well as on the Xtrades app. We didn't have TLT calls in the watch list last week but if you were tuned in with our Discord and our community, I did send that out after the FOMC. So after Jerome Powell sounded as dovish as he did, I felt pretty confident, you know, yield to go down and then bomb values would go ahead and gain and we did see that. So we closed those for about 48% and I do have a remainder position to head back up to the 95s, hopefully. So keep bonds on watch. I believe the futures are doing pretty good after hours. If you pay attention to the bond future, you can track ZB, which is 30 year bonds or ZN, which is the 10 year bonds. So keep those on watch. They're still relatively a pretty good valuation I would say right now. Definitely better than stocks look in terms of value areas. So hopefully we could see some more retracing that since I still do have a partial position in that. Yeah, otherwise I'd say it's a pretty solid week. I mean, there wasn't really anything too crazy other than the FOMC. Obviously it's been a little bit harder to find setups each week. As the market goes higher, you start to leave value areas and things start running with it. And then you really can't get that good of an entry anymore. So I still try to find value in the markets, regardless, even if the indexes keep making all time highs every single week, because usually there's laggers still or there's things that haven't run as much and you can still catch those. And that's kind of what we've been going over the past couple of weeks, finding value areas, looking for stuff that still has room to retrace up without having to go long into QQQ or the spy at all time highs. But before we get into our setups, let's go ahead and go over the economic calendar real quick. We do have a shortened week in the stock market this week. It's gonna be closed on Good Friday. Ironically, when we have the biggest data set of the week, it's gonna be a PCE on Friday. So we won't be able to trade that, but it will be a big data set and it will affect Monday, maybe even the future Sunday night. But unfortunately we won't be trading the cash session on Friday because it will be closed. So there's still dropping the data regardless and we'll wanna pay attention to it. But for Monday we do have a couple Fed speakers. It's gonna be Raphael Bostic, also Austin Gulesby. Otherwise for data, it's just gonna be new home sales at 10. Pay attention to that. That can always move the market just a little bit. I haven't really seen it move in a big fashion or anything, but new home sales does kind of set some fluctuations in the market. You might see a knee-jerk reaction when it drops. And for Tuesday, you're just gonna wanna pay attention to consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Wednesday, Christopher Waller's gonna be speaking, another Fed member, but that's gonna be at 6 p.m. So we won't be able to take action on that. And then on Thursday, it's probably gonna be the big one of the week. It's gonna be GDP. Also have Chicago Business Barometer, just a PMI. Really any PMI data always has a chance to move the market. So pay attention to that at 9.45. And then pending home sales at 10 and also consumer sentiment at 10 as well. So I'd say consumer sentiment and GDP is gonna be the big one on Thursday. Since we're gonna be missing out on PCE down here on Friday, hopefully the GDP pending home sales consumer sentiment will kind of give us a little boost. So that's really it. So we're having Friday. Just wanna see PCE continuing to go lower. Hopefully we don't see any signs that it's sticking because that will kind of contradict the dovishness for the Fed. So if we have two in a row that are looking sticky, it's not gonna be good for rate cut odds and we might see yield spike. Also at 11.30, we do have Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking, but like I said, market's gonna be closed. So really, this could just set us up for a move on Monday or at least a future Sunday night. So that's really it. Market's gonna be closed Friday. Probably just wanna pay attention to the GDP and the consumer sentiment on Thursday. Also consumer confidence Tuesday and on to seasonality for this week, we do have a relatively bullish till on the seasonality period. You can see winning trades are at 65%. We do have a little upthrust here. And then after March 26, there is a little dip, I guess. And then it looks like another kind of little push right here. So this period right here may look a little mixed, but overall it looks like the trend from late March all the way into April is bullish. It does make it a little bit more tough to expect such a big move like this. All the way into April, after we've already moved so much, hopefully we'll get some little dips on the way to set up for legs higher. So you don't wanna just go in straight up all the time. This sets up for a bigger move down. So I just wanna see that higher, low, higher, high structure still holding as we've been doing. And if you go down to the 10-year data set, which is more recent years, you can see winning trades at 80%. Summerized profit at 10%. And this little leg higher actually looks just a little bit different. A little bit more bullish than the 20 year, but overall they're pretty similar. It's still bullish. Like I said, 20 years was at 65% winning trades and then 10 years less data, but at 80%. So if you went long the last 10 years for this period from the 25th to March 29, you would have won eight and lost two. So nice little win right there. And it's pretty similar all the way up into April as well. There might be a little drag period right here at the midpoint of the month, but overall very bullish from now until April. All right, not through the setups for this week. We do have three. It's gonna be all calls I'm looking at this week. I didn't really see any put setups I liked just yet. Our first one here, you can see we have CCJ. Has a nice little bullish falling wedge here. We have a test one, a test two, basically a test three. I mean, I touched it. Don't really see a big rejection off the test three line, but that's okay. Breaking out of that, we have a test one, test two, test three in the lower as well. And it's pretty straightforward. We do have a big line of resistance here, 44, 47. Also have a drop based drop supply right here overall. This is a pretty big sell and balance candle. If we can get over the 44s here, the 44, 47, this could fill up pretty quickly just because this sell and balance was so quick to the downside. And you would head it up to supply right here. We'd probably find resistance. But for right now, you just wanna watch 44, 47. It's pretty straightforward. That's a big rejection level. It will need to get over that. It might see a little bit of short-term resistance here, but overall we'll need to break over that. Like I said, to get up to supply. So make sure to watch that big level right here. That's a pretty big rejection level. It's a clear sell and balance. So you definitely wanna mark this. And then above that, it's literally all free space. So all of this could just fill up just as quick as you would see a gap fill up as well. CCJ, looking at calls, maybe the longer dated, April minimum, maybe even May. Give it some time to work and be a little patient. All right, next we're going into TSM. I would say a lot of the semis look very similar right now, especially if you look at SMH. That's the semiconductor ETF that I track personally. A lot of the setups look the same. NVIDIA, TSM, AMD, they all kind of have this similar structure. They're kind of in the middle of a little dip, I guess. It's nothing major, but most of them still are holding over their nine and 21 EMA combos. Same thing with TSM right here. Still holding its nine, 21 EMA combo. Actually kind of consolidating off it last two sessions. Also had a chance to break down this trend line. Ended up reclaiming that. So I'm definitely watching that as well. I'm hoping we can see just a continuation. Try to get back to the 52 week high level. Just gonna be at the 158. Obviously I don't think this will just happen in a week or anything. Just gotta be more realistic. Also bouncing off this rally-based rally demand zone here. Got a rally-based rally, held that up pretty well. So hopefully we can see some continuation off of that. And overall, I would feel relatively bullish on TSM going forward as long as it's holding its nine, 21 EMA combo as it's been doing. You can see the trend clearly on the nine and 21 EMA combo. Bounce here, bounce here, held up right here as well. Now trying to see some continuation. Also KDJ is positive. So Oscillator for Momentum is turning up, that's good. Not exactly sure how the market's going to price in that little China news that had over the weekend about Intel and AMD. I believe the Chinese government is not allowing AMD and Intel to have their chips into government computers, but we'll see how that goes. Not sure if TSM could be a sympathy for that. Maybe it could see some upside from that. Not exactly sure. Right now I feel like all the semis kind of go together. So if one thing's bad for one, it's bad for all. But who knows? As long as TSM is holding this nine, 21 EMA combo, holding up this little trend line we went over, I would say it's still in pretty good shape. We could see a retrace back up to the 52 week high area. Obviously, I'm not expecting that to hit this week or anything. Like I said, give it time. Just keep your expectations low in the market and if it hits your price target, it'll feel that much better. So TSM looking at calls. I might just look at mostly day trades and stuff, but this could be a good swing as well, at least up into earnings. If you go with May expiration minimum, give it time and your risk off should probably be under, you know, 133s. If it breaks this demand zone, breaks your nine and 21 EMA combo, you're gonna look at something else. Honestly too, you could probably even keep your risk tighter just because the semis have already ran so much. So if you're more skeptical, like I am, you could keep it way tighter, keep your risk on your options, contract premium instead of levels. All right, and last but not least, for the individual tickers, we're going over S bucks. So this is Starbucks. I'm really just looking at this drop based rally demand zone. You could see it's actually kind of trying to bounce off at a couple of times. You can see this is the third time basically coming down into it. We also have a pretty gnarly downtrend line here. So you got to test one, test two, test three. So clear downtrend, it can't get over that. If you even want it to be a little bit more smart, you could just wait for it to break out before doing anything. But I am kind of looking at this demand zone as a potential holdup area. If you go down to the one hour as well, you can see the support a little bit more clearly. So you have a pretty strong structure here at the nineties, get a bounce area, bounce area. Now maybe coming back down for another. Maybe we could see it bounce back up, head back up to the trend line at least, wait for it to break out before projecting further. So this might be a little bit more of a contrarian trade. It's definitely in a downtrend. It hasn't really been having great upside or anything like that. And it could be somewhat of a value area. It's definitely cheaper than most things. In terms of technical analysis, a lot of things are breaking out at all time highs. S bucks has not even gotten close to that. So maybe we can hold up this drop based rally demand area and risk off should just be under 89.21 or the demand zone low. If it starts breaking under your demand zone low, you could look at something else. And then short-term, like I said, just looking for a pop up into the downtrend line at least. Once we break out of that downtrend, you can project higher. So S bucks, I'm looking at calls. Like I said, more contrarian might be a little bit more risky. Just watch this demand zone. Keep patience. It could hang out down here for a little bit with this downtrend line in the way. Also have a couple moving averages in the way. Get your 9.21.50 all trending below that. So that's been an issue for, you see it rejected off the 21 here, rejected off the 21 and 50 right here as well. You can see nice and close here. Definitely has some issues at the moving averages. So just watch those be careful. Overall, probably will need to get back over those to see a real uptrend. And if it can get over this downtrend line as well, probably start reclaiming its moving averages as well. So just be a little bit more careful with this one, but definitely watch the drop based rally demand zone area could be a good support as well as that one hour I showed you. There's pretty good structure at the 90s at least. Maybe you could see a bounce here. All right, now onto some index analysis. Last week on spy, we were looking at this little uptrend line breaking. So you can see this was our Friday's close last Friday. But one thing we did look at as well, we never broke that 9.21 e-mail combo. I did mention you'd probably wanna wait for it to get under that 9.21 e-mail combo for, you know, assuming it's gonna break down here and rightfully so because we just ended up bouncing off of that and reclaiming back over. So you're 9.21 combo. You just wanna keep that on watch as usual. That's basically been our analysis for the past couple of weeks. You really don't wanna get too bearish until it starts breaking under this and keep looking for dip buys as it dips into it. And it just keeps proving that over and over again. Even on the FOMC, even though I'm not going long for swings up here and the index is the least, I went long TLT, ended up day trading QQQ on FOMC day. It went long over VWOP. It was just a, it was a great trade nice and quick too because we had a big pop for the FOMC. So I'm still willing to go along the market obviously on a day trade basis, just not going long swings up here on the SPY or QQQ. Like I said, I still like TLT. It's a nice value play. There's still room for yields to go down and you'll see bond prices go up. But for levels this week on SPY, we do have a new back test area at 518.22. So if price can get back into the 518s, you look for dip buys there. Nothing really changed otherwise. You still have this big gap below. We're starting to get a little bit further away from that one. If you wanted to draw this trend back up, you could do that too. But really, I feel like you could just use that nine and 21 EMA combo. It's been respecting that pretty good. You can see if you really haven't broke it at all. Had a brief period under it right here in January, but that's about it. All other balances have worked out. So really to go along on the SPY here or day trade it at least for upside, you'd want to wait for it to get into 518.22. That's at least the area I would be looking for. I mean, it doesn't have to get down there, but like I said, your best value area short term are going to be off a back test area at resistance or previous resistance supports or directly at the one day moving averages. Just keep it simple. So that's really it. Otherwise, we're still at 52 week highs here. Very elevated. And really you'd probably want to wait for it to dip back down a little bit and you could get a nice bounce area either at 518s or at the moving averages. All right, not too QQQ. So last week is pretty similar to SPY. It also closed right here. So this is last Friday's closed. Closed under that trend line, but it did reclaim. This one was a little bit harder because it did close under the 9 and 21 e-mail combo as well. So look, we have the break under the 9 and 21 and the close also had a break under the trend line too. So you did have a pretty good signal to go down here, but the one thing we were looking at last week, and I did mention this, you'd want to wait for that 433.70 structure break before getting too bearish. And that's exactly what we held up. We also gapped up just a little bit on Monday and overall did back into it again on Tuesday and it ripped off of that again. So that 433.71 has been very strong. It's also that gap structure low. So here's the gap. And the 433s is that structure low. So even though we had that up trend line breaking, also it closed under your 9 and 21 e-mail combo. The 433s overall did hold and reclaimed back over your moving averages. Everything is back to being gravy again. So we do have a clear line of resistance at 448. We rejected off of it on Thursday, just a little bit. Wasn't a big pullback or anything, but it definitely reacted to that one day resistance. So that's really it. That's pretty much our trading range for the QQQ. It doesn't look like spy. It's not broken out yet. So you probably will want to mark that 448. So if you can get over that, you could scalp the breakout, catch a nice day trade similar to spy. So here's spy, that 518s was your big line of resistance. Had a nice little breakout there that was day tradable on FOMC day. So likewise with QQQ, you will want to see that 448 breakout. Just go ahead and mark that. It's pretty straightforward. If I can break over that, it'll make a nice scalp to the upside potentially. And then overall, similar to what we just went over on spy, you want to see a breakout, try to make a base off previous resistance and they can make another leg higher. So I just want to keep seeing you make that higher low, higher high structure. That's a sign of a good uptrend. We don't want to go in up too fast. Also don't want to go in up too slow either because that makes volatility very low and it's harder to day trade. But either way, everything is back in order here. I would just say on QQQ, the 448s could be an issue. Just a little short-term one. So I mean, if it does pull into that, if you see a good enough rejection bar in the 15 minute or five minute, you could try put scalp at 448s. Maybe even if we gapped under Friday's low here at the 444s, go ahead and mark your previous day low and high. You can make day trade levels off that as well. So last week is kind of proof you want to pair levels with the moving averages because if you just went short on the 921 break, you would have gotten screwed off this 433. And also a spy had never broke under its 921 and EMA combo yet. So maybe you're seeing both at the same time. That's a pretty good signal. But if one's not breaking, that could mean the market's still pretty strong. And last week we had spy holding up its 921 EMA combo despite breaking its trend. Well, we had QQQ breaking its trend and the 921 EMA combo. So hope that makes sense. Right now on QQQ, just 448 is your nearby resistance. KDJ is positive, which means momentum is still pretty good. You're over your 921 EMA combo. Things are still good on that end. I really wouldn't scalp puts unless you get to 448 and you have a nice rejection bar off of that. Or if you can get under 444s, which is Friday's low, there's a pretty big buy imbalance here from FOMC that you can fill back down to the moving averages. And that's about it. All right, and last but not least, we'll go over the VIX real quick just because we haven't covered it in a while. There really hasn't been a big reason to cover the VIX just because you've been so stuck between 15s and the 12s, really haven't gone anywhere. And volatility signals have been a little bit less reliable lately, but overall I'd say it still follows the technicals pretty good. I'm guessing there's probably algorithms and big money program to kind of follow these levels. As you can see, when it gets up to the 15s, volatility sells off. Once it gets back down to the 12s, volatility gets bought back up at least short term. And that's kind of where it's been trading all the way since, you know, the new year. So now that we're back at the lows and tested that 1237 area, which is this kind of triple bottom area, you can see we wicked pretty hard off of it. Definitely want to start being a little bit more careful in the market. When volatility gets too low, you want to take things slow. When volatility gets high, it's time to buy. And right now, volatility is very low. So it's been a little bit harder to day trade the indexes because when volatility goes low, ATR is also tightened up and there's less range to trade and you don't see as big of swings. So if the VIX can keep holding up as 1237s here, at least over 12 minimum, I would expect volatility just to get back up to the 15s again eventually. They're pretty clear pattern here of just holding up the 1237s and bouncing short term, heading back up to the 15s. And then once we get to the 15s, volatility sells off aggressively. You have an aggressive sell off here, aggressive sell off here, pretty aggressive here, here and here. Also another one recently right here. And likewise for the upside as well, once it gets to the 12s, you can see it bounces pretty good short term and it just keeps repeating over and over. So just due to the fact that this pattern keeps repeating, we can keep a watch on VIX. Maybe this could be a signal that volatility is going to shoot back up short term. So definitely keep that on watch. And hopefully that's true. So we can see a little dip into the 518s on the spy. Cause if we can get to the 518s, that could be a good back test level. Like I said, good area to buy the dip, look for a bounce right off this previous resistance. So definitely keep a watch on VIX. It's at its short term value area. Every time it gets down here, we do see some type of little bounce and basically just a little short shot up to the 15s. So that's really all I got for you guys this week. Even though it's been a little bit harder to find setups, I hope you guys are still enjoying the videos I drop every week. I enjoy making them. I enjoy charting and finding the setups, even if they get a little bit more difficult as the market goes higher. I would say we still have a pretty good eye for finding value in the market. You're going to see at least one setup pay, at least the past couple of months. It's not a guarantee or anything. I mean, this week, all the setups could fail for all I know, but I would say we've had some pretty solid ones the past couple of months, regardless of the market being too high. We have found opportunities elsewhere and they've worked pretty well. So I love you guys. I'm going to get this chopped up, sent out. Thank you for watching and make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrades YouTube channel. I love you guys and I'm out. 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