 Good morning, and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Tuesday, the 28th of July, 2020, and the time has just gone 11.50 British summer time. And it's been a reasonably quiet start to the training session. Yesterday there wasn't a huge amount of movement going along. Today it's a similar situation. What's been dominating the news over the last two days is that policy makers in the U.S., Republican and Democrats, are having political negotiations over the next round of U.S. stimulus, which would be a $1 trillion stimulus package. Both sides haven't agreed on anything yet. We're going to find our details to work out in relation to unemployment benefits coming from the Democrats side. But things appear to be moving in the right direction. There's a bit of hope and optimism that a deal is going to be achieved in the next few days. So that's the overall, probably the big theme or the big topic of the market the last few days. Obviously, the health crisis is obviously bubbling away in the background. We're seeing an increase in the number of cases in numerous countries, China, Japan, Spain, India. We've had tighter restrictions coming into place in Hong Kong, similar with Belgium. So there's a fear that things from a health point of view and from a kind of a restrictions point of view are going to get worse. Prime Minister Johnson today cautioned businesses they should prepare for a second wave. So this, in a way, is sort of kind of acting as a cap to any gains that are kind of stocks even or have any potential to make. Because there's optimism in relation to the stimulus package, but at the same time being balanced out by that is the kind of worries about which way the health crisis is going. Also, more planning to do it to know the back in the last week and maybe a bit of this week changes between the US and China haven't been great recently. They've been going downhill for a while now at a slow pace and essentially the story that the US government over the closure of a Chinese councillor in the US and then of course the Beijing administration retaliated by instructing a US councillor in China to close. So relations between the two most powerful economies in the world are restrained. That's also a factor as well. We got quite a bit on this week in terms of economic and corporate stories. As always, I'll run through the week ahead article then I look at the major indices, major currency pairs and major commodities. So the week ahead article can be found on our website, cmcmarkets.com, under insights and their news analysis. You will find it here. So tomorrow we have second quarter figures out from next to the UK fashion house. Tomorrow will be the beginning of UK banking earnings. We're going to have updates of the next few days. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday updates from Barclays, Lloyds and OBS or as they're now known as Netwest Group. Moving on to also sticking with Wednesday, rather, we have the Fed reserve's update, the FOMC. The US dollar has been under major pressure recently. Essentially, there's a view that the Fed reserve are going to reiterate the previous point that we're going to stay either almost at zero or very close to zero for quite some time. On Thursday, we have quite a busy day. On Thursday, we have German and we also have Eurozone wide, EU wide. On employment numbers, we have several big companies reporting their figures. On Thursday, Apple have Q3 numbers out. First half numbers from AstraZeneca, the big pharma company. Second quarter numbers from Facebook on Thursday. Second quarter figures from Royal.chelle. On Thursday, we also have US, second quarter US GDP. And then lastly, we have first quarter numbers coming out from BT on the corporate front and then in terms of the Friday's updates, we have growth figures out of Europe and we have second quarter figures from ExxonMobil. So what I'll do now is do a quick look at what's going on in the major indices starting up in FTSE 100. So a wider view is that the FTSE, like other global indices, enjoy a nice rally between late March into early June. And since then, particularly FTSE anyways, has been trading sideways. Notice here, this zone here, north of 3,000, sorry, north of 6,300. At 6,340, appears to be a cap up along here to the downside. Broadly speaking, 6,000 has access to the port and we're kind of right in the middle here. We've been pushing lower the last few sessions, we're now below the 50-day movie average, and that comes into play just south of 6,200. If we, while we hold below the 50-day movie average, it's likely that we could see the reason now we're trying to continue. That should not be the case. We could be heading back down towards kind of the 6,000 mark. And if we head below that, just below that, is this yellow line here, the 100-day movie average, and that comes into play at 5,948. But if you do manage to press on higher formula and retake this blue line, the fifth-day movie average at 6,196, we could be looking at retesting this zone kind of just north of 3,000, north of 6,300 up towards, heading up towards 6,342. That's been the high, but we've also seen there, there are about 6,320 there, thereabouts. So this zone here is quite important. If you get a break above that, that could potentially be significant, and that could open us up for us to retest highs of mid-June. What you'll notice here now is you've got a common theme we've seen. I'm looking at the DAX now, but the DAX, like the FTSE, and also becoming the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, they've all the decent gains between late March and into early June. What separates up the DAX from FTSE 100, the DAX went on to hit, the highs of July comfortably took off the highs of June, the highs of July that we saw in late July, when we saw last week, biggest back-to-level last seen in late February. So we have seen multi-month highs in the general market. Things are looking positive on that front. If you look, we're currently trading around 12,800 just above that. If you press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the 13,000 mark. If you go beyond that, we could be looking at testing highs of this month, highs of last week, north of 13,300. If you go beyond that, we could then be looking at heavy back and forth levels last seen in kind of late February in around this area here. Even the highs ever seen in February, we're tripping up from here in around 13,700 up towards 13,800. But we are a fair distance away from that. But in the near term, keep an eye out for the highs of July. If we do manage to move lower from this current area, we could find some support to play in around this zone here. The lows of mid-July in around 12,400. And notice how you also have this blue line here. The fifth moving average acted nicely as support on a few occasions. So that comes into play not too far away from here, not too far away from 12,400. It comes into play at 12,365. And then just below that, we have this red line here between the moving average and once again, it acted nicely as support on a few occasions. And that comes into play in around 12,206. So keep an eye out for 12,400, 12,336, and 12,206. These are all potential areas of support should be moved to the downside on the DACs. Taking a look now, I want to go down over in the U.S. turning up to John Jones, Senator of the British Commission. John Jones, John is a candidate late to make an average march this June and he knows how high the July haven't taken up the highs in June yet. So in that regard, the Dow Jones is kind of, as is laggy behind the DACs. But nonetheless, it still remains in its wider upward trend. The highs, to be fair, and the Dow Jones in July haven't taken up the highs of June. but nonetheless the lows are still well above the lows of June, so we're still in this less upward trend here. If we could hold above this red line, the touristic moving average at 26,248, it's likely we could see further gains being made. In the near term, the cubiliki retesting, this is out here broadly speaking 27,000, and if you go beyond that, the cubiliki targeting highs of early June in around 26,000, sorry, apologies, 27,633. If you do drip below here, and even if you head back down below the touristic moving average, which comes to play at 26,248, this blue line here, the fifth degree of the average, which actually lies to your support, that essentially comes into play in around 26,000, so between 26,000 being a big number, and also effectively moving average actually lies to your support on a few occasions, this could be a significant area should we see a move to the downside. Take a look now at the S&P 500. I'm just going to close this, since here's some sort of issue in relation to that. Let's open up the S&P 500, here we go. So, we're starting with the S&P 500 in comparison to Dow. Once again, a nice open trend, but the highs of July, most take up the highs of June, so we're still, we've achieved a multi-month high in early July, it took us back to levels last seen in late February, so things are quite looking positive for the S&P 500, and notice how this is all here, 3,200, see that on a few occasions, that's the nicest support, that's the nicest support in the middle of the month, and also even more recently, and also that's the nicest support. So, if you could hold above 3,200, if likely we could see further gains from here, should we move on from these levels, because we're currently around 3,235, if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the recent highs of 3,292, and if you go beyond that, you could be looking at having it towards 3,300, that would be the next big number to look out for. Even if you do drop below 3,200, which granted has been a significant area of support recently, we'd still be in the wider upper trend, and should that be the, should we move lower from here, support could come into play, this blue line here, a 50 moving average, it acted nicely as support on a couple of occasions recently, and that comes into play at 3,124, and once again, if a metric has been important in the past, it makes it more likely it'll be important in the future, although there are no guarantees. I shall now take a look at the currency pairs, turning up at Eurodollar, as I mentioned in relation to my bid on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar has been very weak recently, we're going to have an update from the the great decision from the Federal Reserve tomorrow, the view is that they're going to be very much on the lines of wait to stay extremely low for a long time, hence where we see weakness in the U.S. dollar, and flip side of that, you're seeing a very strong euro, so if you take a look at the price action, you can see it's been a solid upward trend the last few sessions, it's been essentially about a two-year high there, thereabouts, so recently we've seen the euro at its highest level since September 2018, so we're talking just shy of a two-year high, we're talking a 22-month high, it's clearly in a strong upward trend, you know, yesterday's candle was particularly bullish, today's candle, it seems to me that we're going to just put the brakes on it, it's still very much in an upward trend, so if we do press on higher from here, because we're currently in a one-spot 1740, thereabouts, if we go beyond that, we could be targeting 118, and if we go beyond 118, we could be looking at heading up towards kind of 119, 120 area on euro dollar, so yeah, if we do take out the 118 area, we could be heading towards the highs of September 2018, in a one-spot 1815, that's keeping that metric to the upside, if we do see any moves to the downside, we could see some fresh buyers end of the fold, because let's face it, in the last few weeks, and even months, buying on the deck has been a pop-up strategy for euro dollar, so we did see a bit of consolidation in this zone here in round 116, and even if we go below that, we could head back down towards this zone here, down on 114, we could see in a few, you know, the previous resistance in this zone here, just north of 114 acted nice here, the support of when the market was looking to get a press on higher here again. Take a look now at the pound versus the US dollar, so the pound is also enjoyed a nice gain versus the greenback recently, but hasn't been as pronounced as the euro's gain, so the wider view of the last few months has been the upside, you know, we've recently hit levels last seen in March of this year, so multi-month highs, we're currently at one spot 28, 82 on pound dollar, if you press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting 130, that's like the next big psychological number, and if you go beyond that, you could be looking at targeting this area here in our 132, we can see on a few occasions, the highs of December was north of one, was north of, was north of 132, is close to 133, but we can see here in January the high was in around one spot 3209, and the highs of early March went at one spot 3201, so 130 and just north of 132, the area is keeping that to the upside on pound dollar, if you look to press 50 move lower from here, sport can be found from this red line here, the 50 moving out, sorry, the 200 moving average, we can see that at a nice support on a few occasions, and that comes into play just south of one spot 27, and even if you go below that, support can be found from this blue line, the 50 moving average, and that comes into play at one spot 25, 34, you know, once again, I'd actually, you know, both as support and resistance in the past couple of months. A new onto commodities now, starting off with gold, only today, gold hit in the early hours of today's session, gold hit in US dollar terms, excuse me, and yet another all-time high, record high, goes through the great month of the last few sessions, excuse me, it's not a record run for the last few sessions, this, you know, this candle here is shaping up to be a bit indecisive, the long wick on this candle here was kind of to note a bit of indecision, and to be fair, after the round goes, had recently, it's not exactly, wouldn't actually come as a surprise, what this could be is that it could just be a case of the bold for pushing it higher, it drove it up to around 1891, perhaps they were spooked a little by the site of $2,000 on the market, profit areas, but other bulls do that as well, so we're now seeing a bit of indecision, it could be a case of the market heads back towards $4,800 potentially, even down to this zone here in around 1863, before the wider upward trend continues, but you know, the odds of this being a complete turnaround in the gold market and gold crashes from here seem to be quite low for the time being anyways, but what we could see is, we could see a bit of a move to the downside before potentially the wider upward trend continues, after the wider upward trend does continue, the next big number to keep an eye for will of course be the big psychological $2,000, and lastly, I'll take a look at the oil market and take a look at what's going on, brain crude oil on the September contract, now it was only last week we saw oil hit basically a full month high in the latest July hit its highest level since early March, so in a multi month high, but since so the upward trend is very much in play, after you press on higher from here, because we're currently around $43.58 or 56 cents, if you press on higher from here, you keep making a target in this zone here, you know $46.33, and if you go beyond that, the next big number will be the 50 bucks per barrel number, but notice how, you know, the upward moves you've been making have been quite small, it's an upward trend, and particularly if you look at the lows, the lows are getting higher, but every time the market moves up, it doesn't really kind of print a whole lot of new ground, so it seems to me that we're kind of, there appears to be a bit of anxiety about how we're pressing the market forward, but nonetheless, when you're upward trend, if we do see any move to the downside, we could see some buyers into the fold because let's face it, buying on the dip has been a popular strategy the last few months, so if you move lower from here, support can be found from this zone here in around 42 bucks a barrel, if you go below that, this blue line, the 50 moving average, might actually support at 41 spot a weight, but even if you go below that, support can be found from the big cycle launching number of 40 bucks per barrel. That's all for this week, thank you for listening, stay safe, have a good training week, and good luck.