 Good morning everyone. Thank you for coming. I'm Michael Greene, Senior Vice President for Asia here at CSIS. We are delighted and privileged to have joining us this morning, the Defense Minister of Singapore, Dr. Neng Ng Hen. Quick, a few administrative announcements. Put your cell phones on stun, if you would. And the Minister's remarks will be on the record and podcast. We're going to do the discussion and question and answers under Chatham House rules. And to open the proceedings and introduce our distinguished speaker, let me invite our CSIS trustee, former Deputy Secretary of State and President of Armitage International, Rich Armitage. Thank you, Mike. I have the distinct pleasure of introducing the guest of honor here, Minister Ong of Singapore. I must say to you, sir, that Christmas time in Washington on a Friday, you draw a pretty good crowd and I suspect they're not here to listen to Mike Greene or Rich Armitage. So congratulations. It's not a bad showing for a Friday morning. You know, I was thinking about the introduction and it occurs to me that when you see the Minister stand here and give his remarks, you'll be witnessing something. You'll be seeing the next generation in the way of leadership in Singapore. The initial generation of leaders brought about independence from Great Britain, of course, and then federation with Malaysia, which didn't work out so well, two years later in 1965 independence. And they did this in the face of no water, no land, no natural resources, wondering whether they could actually make it. Now you've got a country that's the 35th or so largest economy in the world who we depend on and many others to give us guidance and things Asian. And this generation, as we were saying earlier in the in the green room, is not able to rest on laurels. When you're Singapore, you can't. You've always got to be ahead of everyone else in the game. And that's what we've come to expect out of the leadership. And you're going to be seeing with Minister Ong, I think someone who's wrestling with consolidating the gains that those who came before made as someone who's wrestling with the problems that all societies have and social harmony, etc. Meeting the expectations of our people. But all the time in a backdrop in Asia of some neurologic neighborhoods, some internal difficulties with every state internal threats and external threats. And I'm not saying it's a threat, but the backdrop to all of this is the rise of China. On occasion, sir, we've had guests who have been doctors of law come here to speak or doctors of philosophy that come here to speak. I'm not sure we've ever had a medical doctor and I am sure that we've never had a surgical oncologist is also minister of defense. So if I could invite our guests this morning, Minister Ong and Han to come and talk to us about reaping promises and avoiding perils in Asia. Mr. Minister. Morning, everyone. First, let me thank Mr. Rich Armitage for introduction. Rich has been a very good friend of Singapore for many years. And in fact, some of the events that are relayed, he was intimately involved when he was deputy secretary. I'd like to thank Michael Green and CSIS for this opportunity to be here this Friday morning near Christmas. And thank you for being here. I'm sure you have better things to do. But most that I can do is try to make this time profitable. And I must tell you that coming to Washington reminds me of what an intellectual powerhouse it is. I swear to you, the moment I reached your airport, I felt smarter from when I'm delighted to be here. I bring you warm greetings from Singapore, and it is warm. It's 30 degrees centigrade in Singapore. And this opportunity to talk about the rise of Asia, reaping promises and avoiding perils. President Barack Obama characterized the relationship between our two countries, the US and Singapore, as an extraordinary relationship. Indeed, Singapore and the US are strategic partners. And share a vision for a world that gives every person of any creed, color, or background an equal opportunity to fulfill his or her aspirations and succeed. Defense and security arrangements form one of the solid pillars in this extraordinary relationship. Before I arrived in Washington, I was in Arizona, in Luke Air Base. We were having an exercise by the Singapore Armed Forces. It's called Forging Sabre. It involves all four of our Air Force training detachments in the US, as well as our Army's high mobility artillery rocket systems. We celebrated the 20th year of our F-16 detachment in Luke Air Base. And it's testament to the long-standing relationship between the US and Singapore. This close relationship with the United States is based on a shared strategic perspective for a stable Asia-Pacific region that fosters growth and prosperity for all nations, small and large. These beliefs underpin the 1990 memorandum of understanding between the US and Singapore for US ships and planes to transit through our air and naval bases. It occurred at a time when the US military lost its access to the Philippines bases, and Rich will remember that well. This 1990 MOU was signed by our founding Prime Minister, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, and then the US Vice-President Dan Quail. In an interview in 1991, Mr Lee Kuan Yew said, and I quote, the American presence in my view is essential for the continuation of international law and order in East Asia. An Asia in which cooperation and competition increases everyone's well-being peacefully and without recourse to arms has been the norm. This kind of Asia, this kind of Pacific, cannot exist without America being a major economic and security presence, unquote. In 2005, Singapore reaffirmed this belief through the Strategic Framework Agreement, and this was about the time that you were Deputy Secretary then, Rich, and this SFA, the Strategic Framework Agreement, was signed between the US President George Bush and the current Prime Minister, Mr Lee Xianlong. And suing from the Strategic Framework Agreement, the US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hegel and I were pleased to note that the first littoral combat ship, the USS Freedom, was deployed to Singapore this year, taking part in bilateral and multilateral exercises and enhancing the US engagement with our region. And we look forward to the deployment of the NICS LCS next year. Indeed, in the last 50 years, the US presence in the Asia-Pacific region has been a force for stability and progress. The US leadership in global finance and trade, intellectual property protection, science and technology has also promoted the growth of emerging economies, which allowed Asia to prosper. But I think even the architects and visionaries that foresaw Asia as a thriving member of the global community, and certainly the US is among them, would have been astounded by Asia's rise and position today. The historical context that preceded Asia's rise bears revisiting, because we can forget how difficult it was. Following the devastation of World War II, Japan and South Korea needed to be rebuilt. In its aftermath, General Douglas MacArthur and his team drafted a constitution that set Japan on a path away from state belligerency, with the Japanese armed forces replaced with the self-defense forces. For Southeast Asia, the tired of independence would take almost 40 years, but eventually freed all states from the colonial masters, starting with Vietnam and Indonesia's proclamation of independence in 1945, culminating in Brunei's independence in 1984. Singapore too is relatively young, 48 years, independent since 1965. From the 1950s to the 1970s, these fledgling Southeast Asian nations and Korea, and Korea were caught up in the fight against communism. In former US President John F. Kennedy's words, quote, to those new states whom we welcome to the ranks of the free, we pledge our word that one form of colonial control shall not have passed away merely to be replaced by a far more iron tyranny, unquote. It was a very difficult and painful period for Southeast Asian nations, especially for Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, who became what academics dubbed as the playground for proxy wars. Although decades have passed, historical echoes still resonate today. When General Vong Nhan Giap died in October this year, I paid respects on behalf of Singapore in the quiet and dignified surroundings of the Vietnamese embassy in Singapore. But in Vietnam, tens of thousands poured out onto the streets to pay their last respects and mourn the passing of a war hero. We are still dealing with the legacies of that period. Recently, the ASEAN Defense Minister's meeting formed an expert working group to address unexploded ordinances in affected countries in ASEAN through demining. The experience of being colonized and caught between global powers, galvanized salvation states to consolidate and protect the 70, to be able to chart their own paths and future. To this end, ASEAN was formed in 1967 with the founding members, which were Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Specifically to, quote, bind the Southeast Asian nations together in friendship and cooperation, and through joint efforts and sacrifices secure for their people and for prosperity, the blessings of peace, freedom and prosperity. Unquote. Brunei became the sixth member in 1984, one week after achieving independence. ASEAN has now expanded to 10 members. From 1995 to 1999, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia all joined a rapid succession. Today, the growth that China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, ASEAN, India have experienced has surpassed expectations. Globally, a free market economic system has been entrenched. The bamboo curtain parted in 1982. An economic reforms began in earnest when Teng Xiaoping declared that China would, quote, build socialism with Chinese characteristics, close quotes. It would take another 25 years for this irreversible change to be institutionalized at the National People's Congress of China's National Legislature, where it adopted a property rights law that also protected the property rights of individuals in 2007. The entry of the world's most populous nation into the capitalist economy, fueled by China's science and technological capabilities and entrepreneurial energy, would fundamentally alter China itself and the world with it. Today, there are already over 150 billionaires in China, billionaires, more than any other nation except the U.S. China's GDP has also risen from approximately U.S. $300 billion in 1980 to $8,200 billion in 2012. This growth is virtuous. Some 680 million people were lifted above the poverty line in China. By some estimates, in 2013, there will be approximately 1.4 billion middle-class consumers in China, four times as many as that in the U.S. and three times as many as that in the U.S. and Europe. The world needs China, as well as the U.S. as its growth engines. China now accounts for about 10.5 percent of global trades and goods, the same as the U.S. share. According to the World Bank, China's share will increase to 15 percent in the next decade. China's growth is sustainable because it is propelled by the animal spirits carrying the forces of innovation through science and technology. ASEAN 2 has progressed rapidly. Our combined population of 616 million people with a combined GDP of around U.S. $2.3 trillion in 2012, which is larger than the India's $1.8 trillion. Our GDP for ASEAN is projected to double by 2020. Overall, I think that we can celebrate Asia's rise. It is what enlightened powers have collectively worked for, even fought and died for in the last half century. Without Asia's economic input today, the effects of the global financial crisis in 2008 would have certainly made much more severe. Our future also depends on a strong Asia. According to the World Bank, East Asia and the Pacific will contribute 40 percent of the global growth and one-third of the global trade this year, higher than any other region in the world. But even as we celebrate Asia's prosperity, there are perils to avoid. While the economic progress of Asia's countries has been stellar, the political systems and national institutions in each country are still evolving. This duality is inherent as political and economic reforms within countries often move at different speeds. The leaders of ASEAN have resolved to achieve an ASEAN community by 2015, but ASEAN member states are far apart in terms of economic development and the social-cultural influences that shape them. For instance, per capita GDP of the ASEAN members range from US $900 in Myanmar to over 50,000 in Singapore. The present-day systems of governance are influenced by different colonial paths. The French in Vietnam, Laos in Cambodia, Singapore and Malaysia by the British, Indonesia by the Dutch, Spanish and American for the Philippines. The religious influences within each ASEAN member state differ widely too. For example, the majority in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thai are Buddhist, while Muslims predominate in Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia. And Philippines is a Catholic majority state. ASEAN's social-political landscape is a kaleidoscope of different societal DNA and governance systems. These differences set the pace and direction of political, social and economic reforms in each country. The risk of instability exists in these processes. While Myanmar has started an unprecedented, simultaneous political and economic opening up of its society, it also has to deal with clashes between different ethnic and religious groups. Indonesia needs to ensure that the structural economic reforms begun continue at pace. Thailand is struggling with ongoing political turmoil, with many changes of government in the last decade of confrontation between the yellow and red-shirt supporters. Beyond ASEAN, China is undergoing deep economic and social reform, as articulated during the Third Planet. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared that his obligation is, quote, first of all, to rebuild the Japanese economy to be vibrant and then to make Japan a dependable force. Unquote. But Japan has to contend with reactions from its neighbors due to unresolved animosities of the past. Political challenges that are common to all countries will also add pressure to incumbent governments. Around the world, a growing middle class and a younger generation with rising aspirations will exercise greater political voice and exert influence facilitated by the Internet. Whether it's Occupy Wall Street movement in the US or strikes for higher minimum wage in Indonesia. Asian nations have also witnessed an increase in nationalism amongst their people. As countries develop, it's natural and proper for governments and citizens to feel a sense of pride and exert their national identity and sovereignty. This is a legitimate right. However, unabated and unaccommodating, this assertiveness can accentuate tensions and even precipitate conflicts. In the East China Sea, strong nationalist sentiments have been roused in both China and Japan over the Tiaoyi and Senkaku Islands. Tipped for that, deployments of patrols and naval vessels of both countries have occurred. Five to jets have scrambled to respond to aircraft overflights. And they have been even allegations of a fire control radar lock on or the country's destroyer. Strong reactions have also occurred in response to the recent Air Defense Identification Zone designated by China. While no physical incidents have occurred as yet, the risks are not theoretical. In another incident in May this year, a Taiwanese fisherman was shot and killed by the Philippines Coast Guard in the South China Sea. On the Korean Peninsula, North Korea ratcheted up the rhetoric and threatened at one point to void the armistice that ended the Korean War and launched a nuclear attack on the US. All of us watched these unfolding and escalatory events with concern. Indeed we should, as these security challenges and flashpoints could derail the stability and growth of Asia. While the world reaps the harvest of Asia's economic rise, we must pay heed less Asia's stumbles as the impact on the world will be deeply felt. Collectively, we must do all we can to continue and provide and create conducive conditions for it. Asia's virtuous growth to continue. There is much we can do, anchored on dialogue, cooperation, and shared beliefs. As a start, we must deepen economic ties by enhancing the flow of trade and investment. As Prime Minister Lee said during his visit to the US in April this year, in Asia, trade is strategy. And he urged the US to push the Trans-Pacific Partnership energetically, the further liberalized trade across the Pacific. The regional comprehensive economic partnership between ASEAN and its free trade agreement partners is another such initiative that expands trade. In a social-cultural domain, we should increase people-to-people and institutional exchanges to foster understanding and forge ties from the ground up. We must step up efforts in the area of defense and security. Military spending in Asia has gone up significantly, and will continue to rise. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, Asia's nominal military expenditure in 2012 was US$287 billion. It surpassed Europe's military spending of US$262 billion. The convergence began accelerating after the 2008 financial crisis, as NATO-European defense spending declined by an average of about 4% per annum, even as Asia's military expenditures increased by about 9% annual growth. As Asia's militaries modernized, we must ensure constant dialogue and cooperation between all countries to avoid misunderstanding and reduce tensions. There must be responsive and effective dispute resolution mechanisms to address differences through peaceful means. Here, the ASEAN Defense Minister's Meeting Plus, which is the 10 ASEAN countries and the 8 Plus partners, has entrenched itself as a valuable platform to serve these purposes. We held our first ADMM Plus in 2010. We brought together all ASEAN member states, and the Plus countries—Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Russia, and the US. The ADMM Plus seeks to be an action-oriented platform to use the words of Secretary Hagel. For example, the ADMM Plus humanitarian assistance and disaster relief and military medicine exercise was held in June this year, and it was substantive, involved 3,000 troops, six ships, 15 helicopters from all the 18 militaries, and they deployed engineering, search and rescue teams, and it allowed constructive engagement and practical cooperation between all 18 militaries. US and Chinese military exchange went cross-stacks to each other's platforms. Japanese and Chinese soldiers worked alongside in this exercise. When Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines, many countries responded individually. The ADMM Plus militaries could perhaps have been more effective working together, and these challenges pointed to need for more coordinated and collective efforts, not just in terms of enhancing cooperation and HADR responses, but also to address other regional security challenges. As a first step, we welcome the ASEAN member states' proposed measures for reducing the risk of misunderstanding or mishaps in the South China Sea, such as a suggestion by Brunei to establish hotlines to maintain government-to-government contact, as well as Vietnam's proposal for a no-first use of force agreement. The United States, as a resident power in Asia Pacific for the past 50 years, needs to continue that role as a stabilizing force in the region. But the United States needs to play this role, fully aware of the changing dynamics of a rising Asia. Singapore is grateful for the consistent and strong commitment by the U.S. to the region, as it has actively participated and played a key role in our platforms, the ADMM Plus, the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue. Singapore is also thankful that the recognition of the importance of Asia has bipartisan support. Whether under Republican and Democratic administrations, the U.S. Secretary of Defense has without fail attended every year's Shangri-La Dialogue since 2004. In fact, Secretary Hagel had a founding hand in the Shangri-La Dialogue. We are confident that the U.S. commitment to our region will continue. As Secretary Hagel said in August this year, it is clear that the Asia Pacific region will also help shape the trajectory of global security and prosperity. And because America recognizes that its future will be even more connected to this part of the world, we are rebalancing the weight of our global diplomatic, economic, and security engagement towards the Asia Pacific. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude this morning by stating that political will and leadership will be required from all countries if we are to maintain peace and stability in Asia Pacific region. While there are areas of concerns, we also see positive signs. The U.S.-China relationship is of paramount importance to regional and global stability. Singapore looks forward to enlighten and forceful leadership from both the U.S. and Chinese governments to help achieve stability and progress for Asia and indeed the world. In the bilateral summit between the two leaders in Sunnylands, California, President Obama reiterated that, quote, the U.S. welcomes the continuing peaceful rise of China as a world power, close quote. While President Xi Jinping stressed that he continued to believe that, quote, the vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for the two large countries of China and the U.S., close quotes. This accommodative and open stance declared by both U.S. and Chinese leaders surely set the appropriate tone and example for all countries to navigate through successfully and peacefully the changing dynamics in the Asia Pacific region. Thank you very much for your attention.