 We're staying away from anything that's already down four, five, six days out of the ring. So for example, Tesla. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theAxisTrader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a good trading day. We appreciate, again, once your support, please like. If you're new here, please subscribe. Subscribe. Again, we try to do our best to give you a nonbiased look at the markets on a day-to-day basis. Let's talk about this. If you watched the weekend video, you know what we had today, what we should have had today, the anticipation of having today, and all we needed to wait was that confirmation. Just a quick review. Again, 50-day moving average. Here's your cheat sheet for brand new traders. Anything above the 50-day, it's usually good. Below the 50-day, not so much. The way we started the week, we were two days below the 50-day moving average on the Qs. Friday was our first day below the 50-day moving average on the spies. You can see here today, they follow through. The IWM broke the 50-day moving average two days ago, and now it's continued to build. Again, this is status quo. The most important part is, unfortunately, a lot of new traders, they still have that ego. They still have the entitlement that anything that they buy in a dip will go higher. That's usually true in a really aggressive uptrending market, but once you lose the 50-day moving average, not so much. Again, you can go through charts. I don't feel like doing it for the 27-time, but if you go through videos for the last couple of weeks, you see how many times we talked about what happens when you lose the 50-day moving average. Usually, you'll start a cycle of downward pressure. Again, does the market go down every single day? Of course not. I don't care how good the market is. The market will not go up every single day, so why should the market go down every single day just because it's below the 50-day? However, here's the problem. The majority of action until the bulls reclaim the 50-day moving average is going to beat the downside. Again, just look at the last time here. Here, we lost on August the 29th. The majority of action was happening to the downside. You had your updates. You had your multiple updates, but the majority of action was to the downside. Here we are. The reverse, now we're three days in. Is it possible the bulls have a dead cat bounce in the next day or two? I think so. Like I said, there's nothing that's going to go straight down. I'm always wary. I always have in the back of my mind that, hey, stay away from the stocks that already made their move. For example, a trade like Tesla was phenomenal. Again, we'll get to the individual pivots in a second. Tesla broke down here. This is, as we talk about all the time, jumping out of the first floor window. This is a tight channel here. This is down here. If you're shorting it literally down here at the linear regression line, you're jumping off the 12th floor. Again, what do we mean by that? As you jump off the first floor, you could probably survive. Scrape knee, bumps and bruises. You'll be fine. You jump with the 10th floor. You're talking about a ruptured, spleen possible, breaking your neck, breaking your back. Not nothing good. By the way, you might die as well. We're staying away from anything that's already down four, five, six days out of the range. For example, Tesla, although I still think it probably goes lower, maybe not tomorrow, it still probably goes lower because that's the whole macro area. I have no interest in it tomorrow. Again, the entry was right here and then there was a macro entry here and now we're all the way back down to the linear regression line. A name, for example, like Apple, which was amazing. It was just absolutely amazing. Again, here was jumping off the first floor. This whole channel here, this whole macro channel here at 140, it got down to this 131 and 132 level that we talked about over the weekend. Again, the value, at least the value for the next one or two days, I have no interest in Apple. Apple already made its move. Let it go sideways for a little bit. Let it bounce for a couple of days. Let it put in kind of a new area that a sneaky pivot back to the downside. Again, I have no interest in a name like that. But at the same time, when you're going through your charts tonight, you'll see there's a lot of really tight-looking charts. You guys remember Amazon? We talked about Amazon over the weekend. I really, really liked that. Thought it was going to break down. Finally broke down. Beautiful. Finally broke down. Took down this whole channel here. Again, we'll get to individual pivots in a second. This thing deserves a day too. Not the others. For example, Apple's down 10 points in three days. No value. A stock like this, Amazon, which has got below this whole channel here that started all the way up to November 9th. This should have a second day confirmation going lower. A name, for example, like, let me just give you guys a couple names. A name, for example, let's overextend it. Apple is overextended. For example, a name, for example, like Meta. Meta is not overextended, not even close. Matter of fact, Meta has been holding to this bottom channel here. Look at how many times Meta held. One, two, three, four times. If Meta eventually starts breaking down below this channel here, this thing's going to look at which room you have. You have room all the way down to 106, 107. In my opinion, if, indeed, we do have a dead cat bounce in the next day or so, right in the next 24 hours or so, I don't think that's a green light to start buying things. Remember, the worst days that you could possibly trade is counter trend days. If the trend for the market is down right now, and the 50-day moving average confirmed that, I don't care if the market's up 3,000 points. I have zero value trading a dead cat bounce there. Maybe we'll find something blah, blah, blah, but that's not really what I want to do. I want to watch out for names that are not running. I want to watch out for the names that are not rallying, that are conferring their bottom channel. For name like Meta, for example, it starts taking down the bottom of the channel here. I'm super duper interested in something like this. Look at Disney, right? You had your avatar opening, very soft opening. It was definitely disappointing for Disney and shareholders. Look at this channel here, guys. If Disney takes out this channel here that started all the way back to, again, November 9th, this thing has more downside to go. There's a lot of really good-looking charts. Look at Microsoft. Microsoft stopped today at the 50-day moving average, right? As you can see by the Qs and everything else, once you confirm the 50-day moving average, what happened? I want to keep an eye on Amazon as well. But anything that is down two, three, four days in a row after breaking down, for example, like Google, I have no interest in, right? Like Google, I have no interest in. Google broke down here. It didn't break down here. It broke down here. Could it possibly continue to go lower? Yeah, absolutely. There's better value. AMD, for example, right? We've been talking about AMD. You know, AMD broke down below this whole channel here. It's down four or five days in a row. Again, could it go lower? Of course it would go lower. But again, I think there's better value in other places that didn't break down yet. And the most important thing is if there is a dead cat bounce, the first stocks that are going to bounce the hardest are the ones that already had the bigger moves, right? Like the apples, like the tussles. So for example, in a contraway of thinking, if you turn around and say, well, there's a dead cat bounce day, well, what stocks do I look for? Well, you look for the stocks that got killed. Apple, Tesla, right? You look at those names. Again, they don't necessarily translate into higher prices. But from a common sense point of view, you're not going to short the stock that's coming out of a two-month channel versus a stock that already came out of a two-month channel that had a six, seven-day decline. And now it's just kind of sellers are tired, at least in that security. So that's kind of the theory going into tomorrow's session. So yeah, I'm always conscious of the dead cat bounce. Again, as you can imagine, my watch list is 3,000% of the sell-by is just the same it was yesterday, the same way it was the day before. Again, I am wary. And if I see any signs of stocks holding their previous day's channel, for example, if a stock that I'm watching can't break today's channels tomorrow, then obviously I know we might have a dead cat bounce. And I want to kind of, I don't want to, for me personally, I'm probably going to leave that day alone, because again, I don't want to fight for 50, 60 cents while these stocks are breaking down in 2, 3, $4. So I definitely like, I definitely like Amazon for tomorrow for continuation. I do believe there's a shot. They were coming for the 82 and 83 weeklies. I think there's a shot there. Yesterday they started coming for the 110 weeklies on Meta. Meta, I want to watch very, very carefully. We talked about Disney. We talked about Microsoft. NVIDIA like as well. NVIDIA like as well. There was a small move today, not a big move, but NVIDIA has room, has a bunch of room here that if it starts getting extended, they did start coming in for the January 150 puts. I want to definitely keep an eye on that. So that's kind of the game plan. That's kind of my thought process going into tomorrow's session. So let's talk about the pivots, right? Again, we were just sell bias. That's kind of where we are here. Amazon again, this is the big one, definitely, definitely the big one. I think it goes lower here. Amazon 86, 73 and 85, 87 macro, if it builds below can flush. Here is Amazon. Again, I still believe this thing hits 82, 83. If the market continues to pull, it took out this whole channel here. Went all the way down to 84, 50. I think this thing goes lower. Let's see what else, let's see what else. NVIDIA, just a small scalp was a good dollar and change. Nothing big, and then it kind of rallied back here. 164, if it builds below can flush. Here was NVIDIA, right? Took out the 64, went down to like 161, 45 and kind of snapped back. But again, decent move, nothing there. Lulu kind of held the earnings low, didn't do anything at all. Lulu, we talked about 18 level here. Nothing really much, went down a dollar. It was hanging, you know, it still goes, I still think it sees 312, but it didn't do anything today. IQ, I still like this thing. Oh, I forgot about Apple. Apple, this was the last leg down, 133, 73, if it confirms, should have another leg down. I said we should get to 32. That's exactly where it got to. Here's your Apple, got down to this linear, you see this linear regression line, right? Got right down to this linear regression line at 132, beautiful trade, beautiful, beautiful trade on that. IQ guys, for you guys who trade a smaller cap name, set an alert for this, IQ, look at the chart on this thing. It got rejected $4 several times. Keep an eye on this thing for the future. I don't know if it'll go today, tomorrow or the next day, but keep an eye on this thing. Eventually, if this thing does get above four, maybe this thing starts waking up. Square, I didn't trade any square. I was already done for the day. Square, 60, 70, if it builds below, can flush. But nice move. Nice move on square. It still goes lower here. I still think it just needs to lose this 59, 60s from more downside, not a big move just yet. Spies got hit. Again, we talked about spies on Friday, if they confirm, take it. Confirm, 381, if it builds below, confirms the 50 day moving average. Here is the SPYs, took down 81, went down to 78. Beautiful, beautiful move on the spies. Netflix, not a big move at all. 288, 75 builds below, can flush. I think it went down a couple points. I really wasn't even watching Netflix today. Yeah, it went down to 286. I still like this thing. 286 below can get hit. Tesla, I mean, Tesla is the gift that keeps on giving. 150, if it builds below, can flush. Traded right to the linear regression line here to this roughly 46 area, and then snapped back a little bit. Again, as you saw, you knew retail was going to be trapped in this thing. Last night, Elon on Twitter said, hey, guys, I'm going to put a poll out. You guys want me to step down from Twitter. You don't think he knew what was going to happen. Anybody who bought, and I said this pre-market today during morning strategy, Tesla's up by four or five bucks, pre-market. I said, anybody who buys this thing pre-market is dead. Not only is it dead, it's kind of comical that people still fall for this stuff. Anyway, it went right on the day, broke below the 150, went all the way down to 145. 80s, just an awesome, awesome move. Crowd 110 held twice with builds below, can flush. Here was crowd. Great job by Stoik. Right? Great job by Stoik. Beautiful move here. It still has more room to go, went down like a few bucks. I believe that is it. I believe that is it. That's it, guys. Business as usual, going into tomorrow. Again, just keep an eye on any potential reversals, not necessarily tomorrow. I think if there's going to be a dead cat bounce, there's going to be a dead cat bounce in the next couple of days. Again, I have zero interest to the upside. I don't care if we're recording the video tomorrow, and that was up 200 points. I would rather wait for the stocks that are channeling below their confirmation levels, whether it's going to happen today, tomorrow or the next day, than sit there and try to fight a stock that's down 20% for 50 cents. Again, not for me, especially only a few days before Christmas. So guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay blessed, stay healthy, and I'll see you guys on tomorrow's video. Take care, everybody. Have a good night.