 Good afternoon everyone. It's been a while since we've visited with everybody and we just wanted to provide an update and Talk to everybody about the status of drought We've been getting a lot of questions over the winter and as we'll progress through the spring and what things are going to look like And so we wanted to visit today. We're going to visit specifically about a drought outlook what that looks like in terms of our Our forage production in both our range and pasture situations and also in terms of hay production and Then touch on how that might impact our water quality within our grazing systems So to start out we're gonna start out with that drought outlook from our state climate colleges Adnan accused and I will turn it over to Adnan Good morning. I'm I'm going to start with the drought monitor map that was published this morning The based on the map you will realize that almost 50% of the state To to be more exact 42% of the state is in drought that puts 173,000 almost 174,000 North Dakota citizens in drought and that is limited to western portions of the state and 24% of that is in severe drought and 7% of that is in extreme drought And if you wanted to see what the conditions were since since last time then we met and actually in the winter time We don't change drought monitor too often So this is a change since December 8th And you realize that some of these locations in dark green indicating that two class improvements since December 8th and that is due to the Progressive snowfall and and most of them are limited to where the snow really fell the hardest And you will realize that some areas in yellow indicating one class deterioration In the drought conditions and that is limited to western and southwestern portions of the state I am going to skip those but I wanted to also mention that the US National climatic data center assess the the drought Impact economic impact to the United States total that is 8.9 billion dollar and this graphic is going to show you North Dakota Specific number that is to the five billion dollars. This is a 95% confidence interval and the lower end is in the five billion and the higher end Lies in the five billion dollars. So that shows between 20 to 60 percent Of the US Economic impact due to the droughts came from North Dakota Looking at Bismarck and Fargo accumulated precipitation In Bismarck on the left hand side shown with the green line Against the brown line that is the normal. So it is indicating Bismarck is above normal In fact, it is 1.34 inches above normal and it is sitting at the 17th wettest The water year on record However, it is important to note that this little flat area is indicating how dry it has been and how lacking the precipitation during The the period especially from January 30 to the last and the same pattern exists in Fargo Even though the green line is above the normal line It might be indicating it might be the 24th wettest since 1881 But is what is more important is that that flat line Especially after the the second half of december The Fargo hasn't been receiving much appreciable precipitation since then Looking at the past dirty day on the left hand side. It is the absolute precipitation The green colors that indicating More precipitation in the southeast and less precipitation in the the northwestern portions of the state But what it equates to When you compare it with the normal map on the right hand side is the percent of normal It is indicating between 10 to 25 percent of normal fell during the past dirty day periods The next two figures are indicating last 60 and 90 day periods. These are again The percent of normal, uh, the brown colors that indicating drier than normal And the green and the blue colors that are indicating above normal precipitation However, it is important to note that in the winter time this puts us in the winter time And our absolute precipitation is nearly 0.25 inches Even though the area might be shoving 200 percent or twice as much precipitation as normally it would fall It really doesn't indicate it's a drought bastard It's only indicating 0.5 inches of precipitation fell in those parts of the world Uh, looking at the snow cover On steel there are some snow cover in the northern portions of the states And if you wanted to know how much it is, uh, the three inches still in Langdon Watanai is checking in with the five inches and and the, uh Portions to the the neighbor in the uh, the eastern portions are indicating nine to five inches of snow Still sitting on the ground Looking at the surface Soil moisture ranking percentile that takes us, uh, the percent or not percent But the the soil moisture as compared to the normal this time of the year And all these brown and the red and dark red colors Are indicating very dry conditions in in fact the southwestern And western portions of the state and all these counties are between one to two percentile in other words the soil Has only been drier than Current condition this time of the year only 1% of the time Looking at the deeper portions of the soil roots on is indicating northwestern portions of the state Very dry and the rest of the state are indicating near normal And then you look at the uh, the groundwater percentiles It is a somber realization that how easy for us to be able to go back into extreme and even exceptional drought conditions Just like where we were in 2021 if the rains really doesn't show up in the springtime Looking at the 90 day standardized precipitation index. This is a good index for us to show And the current conditions on the field and as uh, you can tell that the extreme drought locations in the northwestern portions of the state is indicating Between d3 and d4 conditions actually Some of the drought impact coming from the war county and the mckendry county And I will share this slide for everyone so they could be able to see it And everyone is reporting in these parts of the world widespread drought conditions And snow is getting Uh out of the equation and and land is remaining dusty and dry And mckendry county is indicating very same as well as dunn county and amines county Those are some of the impact reports that was reported in the The national distribution center Some of the uh, drought pictures coming from the same circuit on the right hand side. It's a picture of the, uh the pasture It looks like the feedlot and the the person who took the picture indicating this is not a feedlot. It is it is a pasture Very common Situations in the area but very uncommon for the spring, unfortunately Looking at the outlooks. This is the moment you probably have been waiting for Next seven day period that is going to take us into april 7 On the left hand side precipitation anomaly. In other words departure from normal all the green areas indicating About normal precipitation is expected and that is on the northeastern portions of the state and unfortunately um The southwestern portions of the state where the precipitation is absolutely needed is not going to have What what is needed? In in fact, the southwest extreme southwestern portions of the state is expected to have below normal precipitation um Couple with the above normal temperature much warmer than normal conditions are coming in during next seven day periods looking at the um Week two that is going to be from april 17 to april 14 the map on the right hand side is indicating warmer than normal conditions in the eastern and cooler than normal conditions in the western especially Northwestern portions of the state and the map on the left hand side is going to explain why the cooler than normal temperature In these parts of the uh, the north dakota it is because More cloudy conditions that is going to bring Maybe much needed promised rainfall up to 1.23 inches of rain Is expected and divide and even more in burr county. Hopefully this is going to come, uh, true Getting into week three and week four April 9 to 20 second Unfortunate the models do not have enough skill to be able to break the tie between above low or near normal conditions The same thing could be set for the Entire month of april equal chance of having above low or near normal conditions looking at the three months This is the three month outlook from april through june and unfortunately conditions are the same But when we look at even further into next growing season This is june to august and if you look into much later into growing season We will see the same pattern which is above normal and much above normal conditions um in temperature And below normal and much below normal conditions in precipitation This is alarming It may indicate a repeat of the 2021 And for location that are already experiencing extreme drought conditions Especially in the northwestern portions of the state. Perhaps the condition in 2022 is going to be much worse And just like before and i mentioned this is going to complete the growing season With a period from july through september and again drier and warmer than normal conditions are expected Looking at the flood On eastern portions of the state we can say that and however western portions of the state There is no problem with that The yellow colors that indicating Near normal near flood stage and the brown colors indicating um minor flood And a moderate flood is the the red so these are limited to fargo grandforks oslo Drayton and pennman account is in the red river and this is limited to red river valley And if I wanted to look at the the forecast and for fargo and the blue line is indicating The forecast indicating Improving condition does the stage is going lower. This is 17.4. This is the current and uh just Today it is indicating red river and fargo just moved out of the Flood conditions and on the left hand side the graphic indicates the current condition the leftmost graph and the second Graphic indicate that that is the highest occurrence this uh Season and the rest of the darker blue colors that indicating highest in in record So looking at the grandforks and indicating that the conditions are getting better And the stage is getting lower and lower But still it is in the minor stage and looking at oslo and that is in moderate flood, but the conditions are getting better Uh, drayton is actually only Along with the pamina is the only two locations in north dakota The peak stage still yet to happen and this is the pamina county Still, uh, it is in the minor stage All right. That's all I have miranda All right. Thank you adnan Unfortunately, we know it's been a tale of two states and kevin and I spent a lot of the winter talking about Drought what what to expect for the 2022 grazing season And it's a really difficult question to answer Hopefully kevin can provide some direction that way and also one of the things that factors into that is management And so kevin's going to visit about those two factors and what we've been doing at ndsu to help Learn more about that management piece Well, thanks, randa, you know, I was hoping that I wouldn't be here this year talking about drought I was hoping 2022 would lead us into a better year, but much of the northern plains is still experiencing drought conditions Um, I know we got some nice moisture in areas But I thought it would still critical for those producers who are going to be dealing with this drought You know, can we do some predictions on what to expect for 2022 in terms of forage production? When you look at this prediction, you know, you almost got to look at what happened last fall and so I created a map that I took the top 20 and on stations in the state and looked at what happened last fall from august 15th to october 31st In terms of departure from average precipitation To kind of get us a feel for where we set up to have a good year or not And if you look at the state, we were actually much of the state was fortunate to get some moisture um It rains anywhere from 53 in that crossbe area to almost 180 of above normal precipitation Down along the edge lee area. So when you look at this map from the last fall This is actually a promising looking scenario It really sets us up to have a good spring this year because it would happen last fall And you understand that the grass that grows in the fall is what starts to grow in the spring So when we left last fall, um, we were fairly at least feeling feel optimistic that most of the state will have a good year in 2022 The negative of this if if you do look at the the northwest corner Of the state, you'll see that That uh, the crossbe area received about 53 of normal precipitation in that time period Well, listen was that 67 percent and sydney montana over there was around 63 percent. So parts of the area still Were low in precipitation last fall and this is really exacerbates what happened last year because of what happened in the fall period And that kind of that circle kind of shows we were at so I wanted to just let look at what happened this winter And so much much of the area at least western eastern half of the state got some snow We were hoping for a little more snow and I hate snow as much as anybody else But we really needed snow in 2021 2022 And you look at the wet the eastern half of the state, you know that bottom area had 142 percent of normal precipitation from that snow You come down to around the street area at 106 But you can see as you go west as most of you know, we've been out west We did not get much moisture a headinger was sitting at 33 of normal precip sydney montana at 53 Which one my biggest concern on this was we have no moisture to refill these stock dams or these moisture at these wetland areas that we require for watering in the western part of the state and so we're going to be looking at at a low Water levels that brands to talk about a little later on but that's really where we got the big issue was what happened last winter And this kind of this this little circle kind of points out where we can see where we had these deficiencies If it's actually I couldn't make my my circle go walking to the right But you get down to Aberdeen they were at 70 percent of normal even down along the litten area We were a little bit deficient in terms of moisture content So most of you have seen my talks You've seen this graph before and it really shows you when we grow grass in North Dakota And so if you look at the drought of 2021 We did not get moisture in the spring and so If you look at that period from mid-may to july 1 We didn't have the moisture last year and that's why we had a low production year in terms of not only pasture production But also forage production in our hay crop so Most of us were lucky enough or were fortunate enough to get fall moisture And that's the second most critical time period It sets you up for success the following year and like I showed you in the first graph Much of the state was above normal for precip at that time period and that that time period is when we grow the tillers That we could begin growth the following spring and so as long as you didn't graze those tillers off You will be set up to have a normal spring in terms of production If moisture is at least normal to above production So I this is a picture of a of a tiller. It's a western wheatgrass tiller. I took last october This was taken actually on the grass land station And the growing point of your plants if you look to the right on the graph that come out of Nebraska And you can see where the growing points at on these younger tillers And it's really near the ground surface and in fact on the graph to your left on the picture The growing point is between the bottom two leaves The positive of that though is you were allowed to graze last fall And so the potential to graze some of this regrowth was there It was positive in terms of helping producers make it through the winter At least the fall periods And but if you did graze that off it does actually terminate growth As you see in the elongation stage of this graph to the right that elongation Elevates as that grass matures out. So most of our plants last fall would have stayed in the vegetative state Which gave us potential for success coming into the spring The negative to this that would happen last year with no snow cover Is you do keep yourself susceptible to winter kill on some of these tillers And so the western part of the state we could see some abortion on these tillers that didn't survive Those that had snow cover will be in really great shape this spring as long as we have the moisture So let's look at the 2021 drought and fall conditions and we talk about management management drives The vigor of those plants so we get into next this spring if they came in the fall healthy Tillers weren't consumed production should be in good conditions. This is just a picture of um of a slight to moderate use At 65 percent removal of the grass tissue these grasses would have came in the winter healthy tillers have been in great shape And so this lives you in a really good condition for this spring This is a picture showing what we call the take half leave half concept Um, this is still a nice ending of the growing season that we shoot for Um, so you're about full use 65 to 80 percent of the palatable plants grazed But your tillers here as you can see the green tissue in there would still have not been consumed and will come into the winter and spring healthy So for those of you who really didn't have a lot of choice You you you've got the spring grazing here in the northwest you've got no fall growth And you had to graze these pastures to really survive those pastures would have come into the winter Low vigor those tillers either didn't get them or that didn't survive And those areas will come into this spring probably in the worst condition one you'll get a delay in growth Which means turnouts going to be delayed Two you're going to have low vigor which means production is going to be lower And if all of the state has any kind of shortage of moisture We're going to see effect at all stages because vigor is low to begin with from 2021 And we don't have much subsoil moisture to carry us over I'm going to turn it over to Miranda. We're we're doing a project And I'm going to let brand talk about that project that relates to this fall grazing Yeah, so those last photos are actually from a program. We're we're doing with our extension agents We have several extension agents across the state that are participating and we're looking at How management during the drought and use last fall is going to impact the ability of those grasslands to recover And so those photos were actually all from the same county the same Same agent and just different uses across that county And so we'll be going out. We're going to monitor grazing readiness or developments this spring Growth and then production and how did that how does management on these Grasslands during drought impact the ability of these grasslands to recover? And this is probably with the with the way this year setting up might is probably going to be a multi-year Program where we're looking at long-term what happens on these grasslands following drought So stay tuned. We'll be posting updates As as we start monitoring and will be the agents will be out there monitoring weekly As things start to green up Thanks branda so You've heard us talk a lot about Grazing readiness when do our plants reach a stage where they store more carbohydrates below ground in the root tissue than what they actually Produce above ground and so we've always talked about this three and three and a half leaf stage And so for native grasses we typically reach that grazing readiness stage at about three and a half leaves Which is the picture to to my right And your exotic grasses like brome grass Crested wheat grass are usually ready to be grazed about the third leaf stage So when we when we talk about this grazing readiness There's a caveat in the northern plains that we almost have to always talk about and that's Kentucky bluegrass Much of our pastures are invaded with Kentucky bluegrass Kentucky bluegrass does not produce three leaves It produces two leaves then elevates a shoot and we want to have a timing in here where you don't wait too late And the bluegrass gets ahead of you And so you do want to want to look at how much bluegrass do you have in your pasture? And so we tend to cheat a little bit on this grazing readiness when bluegrass is a part of your picture And so we typically I typically shoot for about three leaves on my native grasses Two full leaves on my bluegrass and I try to turn out So for those of you who came into the fall in what I'd call good moisture conditions We get normal spring moisture. I think our turnout date in North Dakota would be somewhere around The third week in May to the fourth week in May depending on where you're at in the state If you did not get the fall moisture Expect at least a seven to ten day delay in growth Because a new tiller has to be developed in 2022 for you to have success So think about that in your area and the timing that you want to match those situations So when we look at at some recommendations based on On production and how does this early grazing impact you the data that that's been done This data actually come out of minnesota, but it really shows how spring grazing that early turnout Has the greatest negative effect on forage production that given year one is you remove Leaf area that you need to capture carbon dioxide and sunlight So those plants lose bigger and you give up production and that production can range as high as 65 percent In dry years or northern plains So if you want to get if you don't have much of a choice Think about you know laying that turnout as long as you can through that mid to late may period To try and minimize that loss and figure that you'll see and you can see in the other Examples in this talk in this in this study here that fall winter ungrazed pastures were very similar It's that spring grazing that will cause the negative effect And so try and find strategies within your drop management plans to minimize that negative effect Will be what you want to shoot for for 2022 So let's look at recommendations and I kind of went through a couple scenarios here So let's look at at when we look at 2022 the key was to allow recovery of those pastures last fall If you did that and you had the fall moisture, you should be in pretty good shape Not all pastures were that was that was the situation So if you were not allowed to to delay that grazing last fall you did get some overuse Those pastures that were overgrazing the fall should be deferred from grazing this spring So look at your pastures and pick those pastures that had the best potential for regrowth in the fall As you're starting pastures in the spring Sometimes we don't we don't do that normally we go kind of a rotation that may not fit that To the t but pick your pastures that have the best potential to have vigor this spring So if normal precipitation occurs this fall Most of the state should experience normal forage production This is a positive thing that I want you to think about if you live in the northwest I'm sorry You're not going to have a great year if we don't have good moisture this spring But those the rest of you should be at least expecting Good production if we have normal precipitation and plan for that in those certain areas So if we have a dry spring and this based on odd nonce forecast It looks like we could be normal. We could be dry That doesn't look like much optimistic for a wet spring So dry could happen and if you're if we have a dry spring the northwest part of North Dakota and in the eastern Montana Are going to definitely have some issues with severe to extreme drought You're going to have to de-stop. You're going to have to delay turnout You're going to have to find ways to survive in a really a third year period of drought Because you're going to severe excessive losses and forage production both on pasture and on hay production Last year much of the state averaged about 35 to 40 percent of normal hay production Which is why you're seeing the high prices of hay the last few months in particular If we stay this dry, I don't see much improvement at all for hay production And you're going to need to plan ahead for what you want to do to compensate for that Whether it's de-stocking whether you're laying in hay early think about these strategies So if you look at at if we have a dry spring in those areas that did get the fall moisture But didn't get the moisture in the wintertime that western half of North Dakota I think if we're dry this spring or still going to have a severe drought The positive is there is some moisture there to get you started And so if we can get some moisture this summer, I think we can at least be optimistic about having some production The eastern half of the state to me is really set up And this is true even in the northeast part of South Dakota Is really set up to have a better year than we've seen since probably 2020 that spring And in fact that the spring of 2022 for those areas had we had fall moisture Should experience a similar spring to what we saw in 2020 when we had a really good fall moisture year in 2019 And so this doesn't mean you should be you should be lax on this I mean, I know we're going to come in plants are starting to be a little bigger We don't have much subsoil moisture, but at least they have a positive response for this coming here in those areas So have a drought plan ready to implement by June 1 the latest I mean, you should be starting now, but I mean in the eastern part of the state I think you can look at June 1 when you want to look at implementing if we stay dry In the northwest, I think we should be really getting serious about what we're going to do for livestock In terms of numbers calling What are you going to do for hay if you don't have another hay crop? I know hay prices right now are really out of the roof, especially in the western dakotas in montana So looking at ways to get in some cheaper haze line up some contracts That's what we're already doing that that the grassland station is we're lining up contracts for 2022 To make sure we're covered just to make sure we have some hay I'm going to turn it over to dr. Marie me hand for now All right, Kevin already alluded to some of the water challenges that we had last year and Surface water continues to be a challenge in the western part of the state We receive and one of the updates that we receive from a county agent their dam on their their farm is a ranch is lower than it's ever been lower than it was last last spring and and the in 2020 it's pretty much dry and Without the snow and the runoff To replenish those Water availability if you're depending on those sources, it's going to be a challenge this year If you don't have a plan in place, we need to have a plan in place hauling water looking at alternative sources And with those low levels, we're going to continue to have challenges with water quality Specifically the challenges we seen last year and I'll talk about those a little bit more Is total dissolved solids the salt and mineral component of those waters And when they get above 5 000 parts per million, we start to see health impacts and then A bigger concern that we've seen here was the sulfates within the In those water sources. We've seen a lot of water sources that had sulfate issues animals that had health issues related to high sulfates so Some toxicities with that sulfate The rule of thumb is five above five 500 parts per million. It could be potentially toxic to calves Above a thousand to cattle. It really depends on their diet In a forage based system. That's a little higher closer to 2500 and it also depends on your animals and what they're accustomed to But if you had issues last year Even if you're in the eastern part of the state I don't know that we've had enough to offset those concentrations and dilute them and so Really just be screening those waters and making sure they're safe That we have some tools that we can do that that makes it simple Most of our county extension offices have handheld tds meters and sulfate test strips So reach out to them and they can Direct you the right direction. Also, they can help you Find some of that equipment if you want some for yourself It's very affordable something that you can have in your pasture in your pickup So when you're checking pastures and getting ready to put animals out you can test those water sources So just a recap of what we've seen in 2021 We tested over 1500 fields A field screenings of water across the state. This was both surface and well waters most of them were surface so Um and we had 151 that had elevated levels of total dissolved solids and 329 that had elevated levels of sulfates And for this it's a greater than 1200 parts per million just because of the test strips give us ranges and so one of the ranges is 800 to 1200 138 of those samples were sent to a lab And of those 214 locations made some type of management change I know craig asked a question about he's seeing higher. I'm guessing sulfates in some of the wells that he's been testing and That we We can see issues with our round water sources part of that's to geology in north dakota Also, um on some of the updates that oh no night traits. So night traits I would look at management around those those locations Usually night traits aren't an issue unless you have some type of runoff coming into into your location And so that is that is a completely different Issue than than this and craig get ahold of me. We can talk about that later But sulfates we can see and and I know groundwater levels are lower and aren't replenishing the same as they were when we have our drought updates That we look at none will show us those maps of the groundwater levels and those are behind Low normal. So depending what aqua for for where we're accessing and getting those that water from we we can see some changes in that This is a map of our sulfates that testing from last year and Of what I want you to take away from this is that it doesn't matter what part of the state you're in a lot of We used to hear a lot before we started this project Is water quality is a western half the state issue? That's not true Some of our worst sites one of our worst sites was in grand forks county And that was actually a well. So it doesn't matter on source it type It doesn't matter what part of state you're in it can still be an issue So just be careful test those waters and make sure that it's safe for your animals The other issue we seen and I anticipate we'll probably see again We've just seen an increase of this in recent years anyways But when we have hot dry conditions, we do see increased potential for cyanobacteria And cyanobacteria produces some toxins There's two different types of neural and a liver toxin or a hepatoxin And those are deadly to all types of animals and can also Impact humans in terms of respiratory conditions some rashes And so we want to be careful when we're using When we're we're monitoring these sources because a bloom can happen very quickly this location for example Was I went out at the site that was there one day? Nothing the water was clear the next day we went back and this is what it looked like So if we can have a way to monitor those water sources just be aware of the risk Of of cyanobacteria as well So looking forward planning The the best solution in terms of long-term growth resilience And even livestock production is looking into a water development They just increase our flexibility in our grazing systems increase our grazeable acres improve our livestock distribution, but Also that improve water quality which will in turn improve our livestock health and performance So really that's a really really something I want you to look into in terms of long-term solutions Obviously we're getting into the grazing system and if you and it takes a delay to get some of these projects implemented so We have to consider things like hauling water and being creative and how can we use How can we have a water available that's Hasn't we have enough water and a good quality water for those animals and still be able to use Utilize the grazing resources we have available to us because I know that was a challenge we ran into This year this past year with some of our ranchers weren't able to utilize some of their pastures because of water quality There are several programs available The department of water resources here in North Dakota still has funding available through their drought livestock drought water disaster water supply program Um And I do believe as long as they're looking into adding additional funding That'll just depend on demand for that program but there are still funds available through that one and there's always opportunities through usd nrcs some some of their programs reach out to your soil conservation district The north Dakota game and fish also has some programs audible and dakota ducks unlimited and some of our other conservation groups Some of them do require cost share but not all of them So you know look reach out a good person to talk to would be your the person in your local soil conservation district office They would be familiar with a lot of those programs and can help point you in the right direction and find find one that works for you So let's end and end with some take home messages And I know there's been a number of questions brought up in the chat box But I want to well end with this last slide and kind of get to some of these questions But we talked about this last year. We've talked about this for many years now develop a drought management strategy early in the game and that includes your livestock your land Your pasture your forages think about the whole system as a whole and how you're going to deal with with the drought if it continues on in 2022 So look at emergency forages. I know next week We're going to talk about the livestock side of this and feeding some of these feed sources And if you're like me, we've had a lot of corn stocks this year We've had a lot of anything we can get our hands on to feed those cows and still balance a diet And so we'll talk about that next year. So think about 2022 What a more what an emergency forages or annual forages you can use in your system To create a feed base and also think about cool and warm season options I mean last year we were dry early our cool season crops did not do very well But we got the august moisture and our warm season grasses did very well And it really saved a lot of our producers if they had a millet or a sorghum sedan grass planted They were able to capture more production because of those fall moistures If you need to buy hay and this is a tough call right now because the price of hay is really high in the western part of the decodas But look around for cost the price of hay right now in the western decodas is almost 100 to 120 bucks more per ton Than it is in minnesota. So look at where you can lay in those feed stuffs Can you lay in some corn stocks? Are you able to feed corn stocks? It's another it's a it's a cheaper feed that if you can blend it off with silage It's a great feed source to provide some filler and some fiber Water shortages. I always tell producers you think about adding water when you don't need it We all are going to need some water airs only water. So that's takes you out of that time right now But I always plan for for adding water to your operation When you don't need it it allows becomes easier to get access to Sometimes the programs aren't available sometimes when you get to those scenarios But it's a great way to invest in your property invest in livestock performance by having good water Evaluate your grazing management strategies. What are you doing today? That allows your pastures to be more resilient Um, if you tend to overgraze pastures or you don't have a good rotation system in place You tend to not be as resilient when we get into a drought There are strategies in place with management that creates natural deferment and recovery that lets those pastures recover when we do get the moisture It makes them more resilient Most grazing systems can get you through a one-year drought Two years drought. We always struggle But resiliency built into the operation is a great way to be ready for a drought And if any indications are we've seen the last five years to six years in North Dakota We've been dry as many wet years many years as we've been wet or actually normal And so I think the pattern right now is maybe we're in a dry cycle And so we need to be thinking about how to manage these grasslands to get the most out of So I think that's my our last slide. I think we can turn it over to any questions on the chat I know there was one question on should we be bailing up corn stocks? And my answer to that is if you can lay in corn stocks For the right price, I would say yes and and I say that because yesterday I contracted for 500 corn stock bails for 2022 that I won't be putting up or get laid in until next october But i'm able to get it at a better price And so any forage base that's a safe feed base has put up properly And yet the potential to blend it off with high quality fees are a great way to cheapen up those rations and get you by during these drought periods Yeah, we have another one on understanding grazing readiness prior to the three-leaf siege Are we currently seeing grass development versus growth? What's the difference? And so we talk about grass development. It is developing those different parts of the grass. So the different leaves As as we and tiller just the different grass parts as as it grows And so prior to three leaf we would still be seeing grass development because we would go through the two leaf and the two and a half leaf But the difference between growth is that it's production growth is how tall is that plant? And so we're seeing both occur at the same time simultaneously You know a great way to put it, you know our grasses grow based on bay length And so they're going to get one leaf at a certain time of the year Every year give or take seven to ten days two leaves is the same way And so that phenology always occurs at the same time give or take Seven to ten days every year. And so when we get a delay we ask for a delay in turnout or you can go out earlier It's always in the month of may that this happens. You should not be grazing native rain in the month of april It is not ready. Um, the other negative to is we can be phenologically ready to be grazed in some years But because it was a dry year Production will not be there. And so yeah, I can graze but the production isn't there Then the bait will come to them Should I be at full stock or not and usually in dry years? You can turn up at a certain time But no, you won't have the biomass to carry you very long into the grazing season And a great example of that is we we're doing we did a project a few years back looking at grazing readiness and monitoring that and we seen in 17 In mid-may our western reed was at At the three-leaf stage is it was around this it was delayed in 18 following a drought and it was also much shorter when it reached that three-leaf stage And so that it was still at grazing readiness, but it was Not very tall Yeah, it's each year is different There's a great question here on on the mixture of native and warmer cool seasons And how that how it impacts resiliency in terms of water use So that what we like to see on pasture is a 60 cool season 40 warm season in the northern plains That is not the norm anymore. Most of north dakota runs 70 to 80 cool seasons And then the kato the kato region or eastern dakota's it could be 90 cool seasons So if you do have a fair amount of warm season grasses, you will improve water efficiency Because of how those grasses use the cool season the use moisture The other caveat is is those grasses don't usually reach grazing readiness Tell about mid-june to the third week in june in the warm seasons blue ground grass reaches about june 15 give or take And so you know that if you're going to rely on those warm season grasses You almost have to delay a little longer unless you have enough cool seasons in there to actually have them capture that moisture Then when we get the moisture the warm seasons will be much more efficient because of their their use Well, there's no more questions. We want to thank everybody for joining us. This was recorded So if you miss part of it or you want to come back to part of the discussion We will be posting that on our social media. It'll also be on YouTube under the nds extension playlist for drought and on our our drought disaster web page So if you and we'll send out to all participants that link when that when the recording is available A reminder that we have a another webinar next Next thursday same time Zach Carlson is going to lead that discussion along with Carl Hoppe and Brian Parman talking about this The alternate tips for feeding I'm knowing that we're going to have to keep animals off pasture a little longer possibly in some parts of state and delay that grazing And also the economics behind making those decisions And I want to say, you know, if you have any questions or you need any help You know contact your local extension agent They're a great resource that you can use they have access to those to the specialists as well So don't be afraid to reach out for help and that mean any kind of help that you that may relate to this drought We're here for you. We want to help you get through this time period Hopefully the rain will come we'll have good moisture and you won't need us That'd be that'd be the best bet, but don't be afraid to contact contact us with any questions