 Fel ydw i'ch gwybod ychydig a fydd eich gweithio ar y cyfrifol. Rwy'n gwybod i'n gweithio'r ysgol projekty oherwydd y Uned Ynwys Gwyllust 2021 yw'r projekty oherwydd ar gyfer y cyfrifolwyr a'r ddweud o'r cyfrifolwyr ac yn gwneud yn ymdeithasgau natural. Rwy'n gweithio'r cyfrifolwyr a'r ddweud o'r perthynau i'r ysgol o'r wgfaith yma. Mae cyfaint o bobl 20 o'r bobl yn meddwl ar gweithio'ch reilio'r iawn i gydag maen nhw i'r bobl a'r bobl arall, yn 5 o'r cyfrannu. Mae'r Ffasyr Dioclissiwyr i'r rôl, i'r rôl i'r rôl i'r treuio i Portugal, i Ephesus i Torch, i Rhyfymno i Grys a i'r Unigol, i eich roi'r bobl i deilio'r bobl i mella, a i'r glas ar Manchester. The aims of the project is to bring together useful information and tools and services to help management of cultural heritage assets, protect their assets from climate change and natural disasters, and it hopes to help them prevent the damage from occurring in the first place, intervene when the hazard takes place and to suggest new policies, planning and processes for government organisations and cultural heritage site managers. The key part of this is to integrate novel and inexpensive monitoring tools and you'll see in a minute how we've integrated some weather stations etc at our site. So if we go on to Mella, as I say it's in the north west of England close to Manchester and it's different from the other sites in that we have three individual sites all located at different elevations, almost giving it different microclimates. So we have something called the Old Vicarage site which has Bronze Age, Iron Age and Roman hilltop settlement. We have Shorecair which is a Bronze Age burial site and we have Mella Mill which is very different. It's an industrial period mill that was burnt down in 1890s. So what we've done is we've created some use cases which is parts of the site that we are interested in monitoring and protecting. In terms of the Old Vicarage site we have two use cases, we have the Iron Age Ditch which has been exposed on your right hand side there and that's been left open for the public to view and is now a threat to weather events as I'll show you in a minute. And we also have a reconstructed roundhouse that was built in the 2000s as part of another European project. At the mill site we have the entire foundations of the mill which have been excavated and recently landscape to allow people to visit. And here we're focusing on the Wellington wheel bit which is here and the seam engine beds which are here. And then we have the Bronze Age burial at Shorecair which is on top of a hilltop. And then attached to that we have some scenarios. So I won't go into the more in detail what we're concerned with from the start of the project was prolonged periods of low temperature and how freeze thought action would affect the masonry at the mill site. And we're also really concerned about flooding from heavy precipitation events into the future. This isn't to insult your intelligence. I'm sure you all know the difference between weather and climate. But I put this in because it was very difficult to explain this to pilot site, to cultural heritage asset owners and also to the technical partners within the project. Another thing that was difficult to get across was that climate change wasn't only looking at temperature, we were concerned with things like precipitation, especially the frequency and the magnitude and how that might affect flooding into the future. So from the scenarios we selected some climate indices and we did this with ZAMG which is, I'm not sure on the German name but it's the Austrian Weather Service. And they took our scenarios and created some climate indices and the one I'll focus on here is Freestar which is the bottom there. So we said we were concerned that Freestar may increase as a result of climate change thinking that the extremes of both end of the spectrum would be worse. So we thought it would be warmer and colder. And we defined that as the number of days for which minimum temperature is minus 2.2 and the maximum temperature is zero. So what they did is they got the data from the Met Office for the Manchester Airport region from 71 to 2000 and used that as our baseline. And they run a climate model simulation on the historic data to confirm it was correct and then they ran it into the future for the period the middle of this century. And they asked me to include this because it's important to get across to the site managers that it's just a projection, not a prediction. So this model was then downscaled to focus on the North West of England and we used multiple models and used the average of the results. And the projections are based on RCP 8.5 which I'm sure you know is the worst case scenario. So looking at the baseline data, in the North West UK around Manchester the average summer temperature is 16 degrees. The average winter temperature is 5 degrees. Summer days which were defined as days in which temperature was greater than 25 degrees Celsius. There was 8.6, freestyle days which are days in which minimum temperature is minus 2.2 and maximum is zero. There were 14.5 days and consecutive frost days there were 8.6 again. Really quickly looking at the data. So as expected we think temperatures will rise by about 1.5 degrees. That's nothing special, kind of expected. But this was what surprised us for the Manchester pilot site is we were expecting freestyle days to be significantly worse into the future. But actually we're going to have a huge reduction of 50% of freestyle days for the North West of England. Which means that the mill site into the future might actually be easier to manage. This is included because summer days are due to increase by 65%. But the important thing to remember is that in Manchester in the North West of England we only have about 8.6 days per year summer days. So a 65% increase in 8.6 days isn't that much. In terms of the precipitation results then, the total rainfall, annual rainfall is 800 millimetres. Wet days per month we have between 10 and 14. And heavy rain days, which are days in which rainfall is greater than 10 millimetres, there was 20. And very heavy rain days there were three. That's rainfall greater than 20 millimetres. The longest wet period in the baseline was 16 days and the longest dry period was 30 days. We couldn't say for sure whether precipitation would increase into the future. There was no signal in the model. But what we could say is there'll be a 10% increase in heavy precipitation days. Into the future then, at the minute we're monitoring the sites with some inexpensive weather equipment. As that's part of the project's aim is to make sure that small scale sites can afford to do this. So we've got three Davis Fansage Pearl II weather stations installed at the sites. And they will be left running into the future in collaboration with Salford University. We also have some environmental sensor networks set up which give us temperature data in and around the archaeology at the vicarage site. And we will monitor weather events using laser scanning and photogrammetry to monitor the assets. What we want to get across today then is that there'll be an increase in precipitation days, heavy precipitation days in northwest England. And that's a real concern for flooding. Not so much as bad is that there is no clear signal in precipitation amounts, we can't say for sure. And although it's a 65% increase in summer days, this is from a very low base so actually it won't be that bad so to speak. And what will be good for our site and for the northwest of England potentially is a 50% reduction in freeze thought days. Now I've put this in because I don't want to sound all Donald Trump saying it's not too bad. But we've only taken into account four or five climate indices here. And there's many things that we haven't taken into account. And for example this summer which was very warm in northwest Europe as I'm sure you all know. There was very close to our site, there was more than fire. And this is an example, wildfires are something that in England we didn't bother to even address. We have in the other pilot sites but not in England. So again what we've done is we've provided these results and it's up to site management, sites management and policy makers to take these results and to plan long term measures to protect their cultural heritage assets. And like I say remember that only a select number of indices were used in this analysis. So it's not that wide ranging and more thorough analysis will be needed into the future. Thank you.