 To go to Steve Rhodes. It's my pleasure to be having Steve Rhodes as a guest and How are you Steve? Nice to be with you. Good good to get good good to hear your voice Ah great great great. Hey, I thought what we would do today make the case both sides of the case the case for the Bulls and the Bears So let's begin with the Bears case as far as my outlook for the market and what things And the reasons why and the first reason the first reason Basil is because when I take a look at the yearly chart for the S&P 500 that's we have up on the screen here. It has what I refer to as a TD 9 count top and You don't get these that often But the TD 9 count tops work the same way no matter what time frame it is whether it's a yearly a five minute a daily And so we've got that topping signal which at this stage here has taken hold So that's the first element the second element as I step down from my yearly chart and go take a look at a monthly chart The monthly chart for the S&P 500 has a TD 9 count top as well. So much like the yearly does and With 37 23 34 being a downside price target And what's nice about this TD 9 count system is it provides us with an objective Level to help identify support or resistance or where price broke out from so on a monthly basis The S&P breakout level is 37 23 and as long as price remains below this green line I refer to that as the asset or in change line that still has the potential So that's item number two number three the weekly chart for the S&P 500 has a roadsman to Mindicator top I also have it as wave number seven. So that's your letter g part of your roadway So we've got those two tops that formed at the high now What happened here in the weekly chart is price pulled all the way to that breakout level that breakout level again being Established by the TD 9 count level tool in 41 64 40 was that breakout level? So price hit that and now we've got price trading for week number three above this green oscillator and change line When I get two closes either above resistance, which the green oscillator and change line was or below support to me That's a confirmation of what the market's intent is so the weekly chart now says this wants to continue to move higher But we want to monitor that this week and obviously for the following weeks when I take a look at a daily time frame chart For the S&P 500 a couple days ago It formed a TD 9 count top and this little oscillator and change line when it changes color in this case here It went from red to green what we typically see is pricing that line catch up to each other So several hours ago that was priced about 45.07. I'm still anticipating that to be the move The only thing that would change that is to take out the high from about four trading sessions ago So I'd be number four reason when I take a look at the charts here for the ES mini as well as the S&P So at the top I've got the S&P charts that we looked at we've got the same patterns going on inside of the ES mini The nice thing about the ES mini is it provides us with profile levels, which are which provide us with additional support or resistance areas another element to add to the bearishness is the stock market does not like war and Meaningful bottoms typically do not form until there's some type of a sense of an optimistic outcome And this is showing the World War two cycle But we can go through every single war cycle and it really does the same thing So that's another reason to be concerned or that would be add to the bearish case for the market now Another item and I'm a switch gears here We're going to go from the S&P Basel to the NDX 100 which is the bottom portion of this screen And I was turned on to this by one of our guys in the at Tiger's Den John from from Philly Well, I believe got it from a guest of Larry Pesavento's and that individual was suggesting that the That the NDX 100 might follow along the top that formed in the Nikkei 225 back in 1990 So what I do is I reprogram my system so that they and the NDX 100 top-down November 22nd I believe was January 5th for the ND for the for the Nikkei After the long weekend the newest weekend. I remember it very well because I also had a peak E I believe in my NDX train my Nikkei chart. Yes, perfect. Perfect. So so what I've got here So it had your peak E and both the both of these topped with the roads meant the indicator signal So this is updated in essence through today, of course the NDX 100 is still running right now So it's not exactly priced exactly right, but you can see that the analog or the parallel is Is very striking if this analog were to continue And so here now I've just gone to a little graphic chart that I've created inside of an Excel Spreadsheet out here and so you can see how it's following along very well here very well. Yes If this analog is to continue This says that we've got another major downlink now from a timing standpoint if we're to continue it equates to about the early part of June out here So we'll want to keep track of this as well So those are all of the reasons to have a bearish case out there But we always have to look at both sides of the trade and so the bullish case for the stock market goes like this First interest rates are rising and should continue to rise for the foreseeable future I don't think there's anybody that thinks otherwise now many people I hear a lot of media folks out there that say This is the reason that the stock market should go down but those folks don't really take a look at charts or history Here's 30 years worth of history the top portion of this chart I'm using for interest rate rising just the 13 month or 13 week T bill out here And so you've got the rates rising those are the green arrows going to the upside when you start take a look at the S&P chart below. You also see that the S&P 500 Moves higher during those time periods. So that's a case for the bulls not the bears Essentially implying that money the huge amount of money people don't realize just how much is in bonds when that starts to come out It has to find a place to go So that's another reason why you could see some money faltering to the stock market absolutely But the most important thing that really I want folks to understand is that rates rising again if you come back That's a monthly chart. So you get knee-jerk reactions out there So I'm not talking about the one day two day But overall if we take a look at over the last 30 years when interest rates rise, so too does the S&P 500 Another reason to be bullish now I showed the war chart there Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and Oddly enough or maybe it's not oddly enough the actual bottom inside the S&P 500 took place on February 24th So it's doing the exact opposite of what we would typically see in our war-based charts So that's a reason to say well Maybe what we really have going on here with the market senses is this is more of a geopolitical type event and typically those bottoms from a geopolitical event standpoint Happened the day that that event actually takes place out there So a reason to consider the bullish side now when markets make major tops up as you know that I take a look at instruments priced in the major currencies those major currencies being euros yen and pounds so on the left-hand side of the chart We've got the Dow priced in dollars next to that priced in euros next to that priced in yen and next to that pounds Now when markets make major tops what we'll typically see is they will all make a high on the same day Well because we're dealing with Europe. We're dealing with Japan Here you've got tops that took place on January 5th inside the US market And then inside the Dow price and euros that took place on January 4th as it did for the yen as it did for the pound However, when we take a look at what has transpired since that top We can see that priced in yen the Dow made a higher high So that says that says because we don't have everything lined up here That what the Dow price and yen is telling us is we should expect to see a move higher When I look at the weekly chart for the S&P 500 which we did before Prices above that green oscillator and change line the oscillator and change line tells us that we have a rising price Ossiter above zero for the weekly time frame Basil and that is a bullish condition out there and also lastly prices trading above the top of the profiles for the ES mini for the weekly basis that too says that these are bullish conditions So we've got it for the bulls and the bears out there So I really appreciate you do fantastic wood folks go to the front page of TF and check out mastering probability with Steve Rhodes. He does some fantastic work. I'll talk about the TD 9 when we're off and I