 Welcome, everybody, to this week's monthly webinar with me, Michael Huston, and my colleague in Toronto, Colin Cizinski. Quite a bit to get through today. Obviously, commodities are one case in point, and it's certainly something that we will be looking at, both for myself and Colin. The commodity currencies as well, and potential for further easing measures may be from the Bank of Canada, the RBA, and potentially the RBNZ. We're also going to be looking at U.S. earnings and whether or not there's going to be any seasonal variations. We're going to look at potentially the strength of the dollar as well and try and determine whether or not that could well have an effect going forward on S&P 500 tech earnings in general. For now, let's go and just basically work our way through the various disclaimers, which we have to basically put up to keep our good compliance department all happy and sweet and fine and dandy and what have you, and then we can basically then crack on. I know you've got quite a bit that you want to say about Commodities, Colin, but before we do, for those of you who don't know, I know Daniel or Danny, you basically come into it on the colour of my tie earlier this week when you viewed my gold video, so we're going to start with gold because we've heard an awful lot of speculation I think is probably the best word that I can use with respect to the reasons why we got the sudden sell-off in gold over the weekend from nervousness about a U.S. rate hike. I mean, come on, give me a break. That's not exactly new. So I don't think that was behind the move lower in gold prices, but I certainly think, given what we know with respect to the strength of the dollar, the fact that gold is moving lower really shouldn't be a surprise if you look at this chart. It's been trending lower for quite some time, so we can see straight away the 2014 lows, 1,130. If you're going to be longer gold, where are you going to put your stop? You're going to put it underneath there. So any break underneath there is going to trigger a reaction and that's what we got. Now what the catalyst was, I think there's probably any number of catalysts, one of which has been speculated that the Chinese admission that their gold reserves were potentially lower than what markets had initially suspected they were, could have been behind that. I'm a little bit skeptical about that and I think if you believe everything that Chinese authorities tell you, then I think you're being somewhat naive, the Chinese will tell you what they want you to know, not necessarily what is actually true and I think if you're looking to buy gold and build up your gold reserves, what better way to do that than manipulate the gold price lower? That's my theory anyway, conspiracy theory and all of that. There was another round of thinking on that, that it could also be that people had just outright stolen it. There's all kinds of, that perhaps a member is real and if that's true then perhaps it may be indicative of how much has been scrolled away by various officials, that was another line of thinking I'd seen earlier in the week. So there's certainly lots of speculation but certainly I think the bottom line on that one is that we do, as Michael said, we do have to take any official numbers with the green assault. So, yeah, absolutely, so I mean basically what we're looking at now, the key level for me on the gold price is, let's start with this chart here. Now I'm not being rude in the bottom left-hand corner, Brown's bottom. Why is that Brown's bottom? Because that's where our esteemed Chancellor Gordon Brown sold quite a bit of the UK's bullion reserves in 2001-2002, right at the bottom of the market and if we can then do some nice little Fibonacci retracement levels off that, really brings us in and around about give or take, 1088 give or take, give or take the odd dollar or two. But around 1088 is 50% retracement of the entire up move from $250 an ounce to the highs at 1921. So in that context, this move lower needs to push below the 1085 level and you can look at a more in-depth analysis of that in my weekly video that I've posted on YouTube, which one of you has so kindly commented on the color of my tie. Well, I thought it was topical, gold tie is talking about gold, why not? So, 1088, that's our next level, but also we've got the 2010 lows at 1044. So, I'm going to give you a little bit of an example of that. We've got the 2010 lows at 1044. So, while people are basically saying that we could well see further losses, I certainly don't rule it out, but what we need to do is we need to stay below this breakout level at 1130. 1135 is really the level that I'm looking at for us to stay below, for us to push down through 1085 towards 1044. Now, this move lowering gold, it's not just unique to gold. We've seen declines pretty much across the board. I'm going to finish with this gold chart, Colin, unless there's anything else you want to add. I just wanted to comment on a couple of things here with gold, Michael, before we move on. So, we've seen this as, Michael knows that I think the catalyst between the Chinese and also the technical break of those lows were what caused the big $50 drop we had in gold on Monday, but there's still a lot of storms swirling around the gold. In particular, we've seen capital in general starting to come back out of some of the defensive havens, not just gold, but also the yen and also the fact that inflation pressures are coming off, which we're going to see in a moment. But one thing I wanted to highlight on the stochastics is we are getting a little bit of a positive divergence and we are starting to get some oversold readings on stochastics and RSI. So it is possible we might get a pause here. We're also starting to get a little bit closer to a more seasonally favorable period for gold in terms of short-term trading. Indian wedding season comes up in the fall and historically August and September have been okay months for gold. The wall is a little more mixed with the wall exactly. So we are getting to a point where we could be getting close to a seasonal washout in gold with the potential for a pause or a bounce, but I'm still thinking that there's a possibility we could still see a bit more downside perhaps to that 1040 or even. We're so close to striking distance of the 1,000-round number. I'm sitting here questioning myself if we're going to probe that before we get the seasonal bounce or after or sometime later on. I'm still a little up in the air on that one. There's still another factor to price in there, Colin. You have to recall that the previous high in gold was what? 1040, 1050, which also corresponds to the 2010 lows. First of all, the technical analysis is support and resistance can reverse their roles, one of the key roles. The previous high in gold was just above $1,000 an ounce in 1980. We could retest that again. So even if we break below 1080, we could get a washout to around about 1040, 1050 and then a rebound. So everyone's so negative on gold and certainly I think there's an awful lot of reasons to be negative on gold, but do I think we get a Fed rate hike in September? No, I don't. I think it's too soon. I think despite those weekly jobless claims numbers that we saw earlier today, which came in at the lowest levels since 1973, there are still significant concerns about the US economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which appears to be in recession after those revisions, those downward revisions to industrial production data earlier this week, as well as the poor retail sales numbers that we've been seeing out of the US over the course of the past few months as well. So even though the jobs market looks pretty healthy, low participation rate notwithstanding, inflation appears to be fairly benign and likely to remain so and that's basically feeding into what we're going to talk about next. Not only are gold prices coming off, but a whole commodity space is coming off as well. Oil prices, gas prices, sugar prices, copper prices, grain prices. So all of that means that in terms of raw materials, food and everything else, there is no real price inflation at the moment. Milk prices as well are under pressure. So that's going to keep pricing pressures, I think, fairly muted over the course of the next few months. So let's move on to crude. I'll give you a similar sort of story. I know you wanted to talk about the dollar index. We'll talk about the new column. We'll talk about that in the context of the stronger dollar later, but certainly in the context of Brent and WTI, the direction of travel here seems pretty clear. Lower highs, lower lows. The next target for me is this $54 a barrel level lows here. We've had a bit of a rebound. The direction of travel still remains lower and the likelihood is, given the Iran deal, whether or not you believe it's viable, the fact of the matter is the fundamentals and the price action do seem to suggest that further declines in oil prices seem pretty much nailed on. And certainly I think the currency price actions also speak to that as well, particularly dollar CAD. Can I speak a little bit to oil before we move on to that? Sure. Is that on top of Iran coming back into the market, the supply worry isn't going away anytime soon either. The Saudis have been running around for the last several months clucking about how they've won, but in fact, I think the talk of the U.S. has been lately that now that they've cut back on their exploration, now they're looking to cut back their costs and get the production going. And one thing that's been making the rounds in the last few weeks was the idea of going back and refracking some of these old shale wells to see if they can get more oil out of them at a really low cost. So I think we're going to hit a point where the U.S. producers, their initial response was to cut exploration. Their next response is going to be to cut costs and get their production back up, because they've certainly been, people have been, they don't want to be seen as the big losers in all of this, and they're going to find a way to eventually to respond to the challenge from the Saudis. So this could drag on for a while. We've got WTI has gone back under 50 bucks. I see no reason why, and it's starting to take out, you'll see on the chart, Michael's put up the 62% retracement. If that doesn't start to hold soon, then you're looking at a full round trip and you could retest those march lows, and it wouldn't surprise me in the coming months to see that happen. So basically what we need to see here is a move back above really $50 a barrel to suggest that there's a potential base in place. But certainly in the context of that particular chart, Colin's right, I think we could be building up for a bit of a round trip back to the lows that we saw in March, and certainly if you then figure it all the way out and you look at where crude prices, US crude prices were in June last year and where they are now, you look at the annualized inflation effect with respect to that, and then you wonder why US CPI is as benign as it is, and yet despite this, there doesn't appear to have been any sort of consumer-led rebound in terms of consumption spending or anything like that with respect to the US economy, which does make me wonder as to how confident US consumers are. On that, could you bring up the gasoline, praise Michael, because there's a point I wanted to make to that, and it actually ties back into earnings as well. Okay, I don't think I've actually caught it, let me find it. Okay, so while Michael's getting the chart, something that I noticed this morning in the earnings was the best earnings out of the states this morning was out of Dow Chemical, and they did totally blew away street estimates, and last quarter all the refiners totally blew away street estimates, and one of the reasons I think why you're not seeing, now you are seeing a kick in a little bit here, but look at this chart in gasoline, while crude oil bottomed out in March through the winter gasoline prices actually had recovered first, and something that's happened and we're seeing in earnings is that refining margins have exploded, positively exploded, and the refiners are making a boatload of money, so anybody who's got raw material costs in crude oil, they're doing just great because the raw material costs are going down a lot faster than the refined product costs, so the point of this being is that the fall in the crude oil price isn't showing up at the pump price, and the refiners are making an absolute fortune, and the chemical companies are making an absolute fortune. Money hand over fist these days, and that's possibly one of the reasons why we're not seeing it translate into consumer spending is because the money hasn't found its way back into people's pockets, so what we'll be watching here with gasoline in the next couple of months is we're running right through, halfway through the middle of summer driving season, so what happens when that comes off as we head into the fall, and at some point do we see these refining margins get shrunk or are they going to stay blown wide open like they are these days? We'll see what happens there, but with crude oil coming down, you would think gasoline could be quite vulnerable here. Maybe we could overlay the WTI on top of that, Michael. Is that possible? Of course it's possible. Yes, I know it's possible. I meant if you don't mind. Let me just try and track that on. You'll see what I mean. Let's get rid of that and change that. There. So if you look back in the fall, November, December, they were basically tracking each other, and then since then that spread, which the spread there between oil and gasoline has blown wide open. In gasoline's favor. Yes. So either that's going to close or what? We'll be watching to see that over the next little while, particularly with crude coming down again. Well, I mean, if it's anything like here in the UK, the politicians are going to go to the petrol companies and say, why aren't you passing these price cuts onto the consumers? Because it's fair. Basically we've had, while prices were dropping off here, gasoline prices were still going up. So I think it does take the question why US companies aren't passing that on. But obviously that's gasoline, that's WTI. We've had similar sorts of declines also in copper prices. We can see that here. Made new multi-year lows on copper right there. The direction of travel is fairly clear, but not just that. Let's look at sugar as well. That's looking pretty soft. Also, if we look at corn, silk food staples, if you just blow that out, we've had a little bit of a spike there. But look at where we are in context of 2014. Again, we're quite a bit lower. So all across the commodity space, we've seen commodities come under pressure. And that has consequences for currencies like, a Canadian dollar. And this is where I'm sure you'll want to jump in. Absolutely. So the Canadian dollar totally broke out earlier this month, clearing the 128 level. It's driven pretty much straight up to 130 where it's started to level off in the last day or so. And as we can see, that's back getting close to the 2008 highs as well. There was a measured objective up to about 132, but so far the resistance kicking in in and around 130. And certainly, though, we can see that and we're starting to see a bit there. But it's bumping up against it. There's no really a sign of a top. We are getting overbought on, as we can see on the stochastics, it's also showing same on the RSI. But we're not seeing any indications yet of a top forming. We haven't seen that roll back down. We haven't seen a negative divergence. So at this point, it looks like we're just pausing a bit around 130. But overall, there's still quite a bit of weakness. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates last week. There's a lot of talk that they may have to cut a gain. And at a time when interest, and people talking about the divergence here, of the expectation that the Fed's going to raise interest rates sometime this year versus that the Bank of Canada may have to cut a gain they've already cut twice, has that as what's totally driven that, that the Looney Munch, the Looney Lower and Dollar Cat higher over the last few months. Now, if Michael's right in the U.S. doesn't raise interest rates, then that side of the equation changes and then perhaps this might be getting close to a top. That's the thing you see. And I think in terms of trading this particular market, if you're looking to go long Dollar Cat, I wouldn't be looking to go long here. Simply because we are so close. If you look at the number of times we tested this one, 30, 65, 70 level in 2008 and 2009, on four separate months we tested it and failed to get above it. So it's important. And if you're looking to place a low-risk trade, then your stop really needs to be at 131 for a move back down towards these previous 2015 peaks, which we saw in February and March at around about 128, 128, 10, 128, 20. So certainly I think it's going to be very interesting to see how the CAD reacts around 130, 70, 130, 80. Yes, and on top of that, I also just may add something else on the U.S. Dollar here. Regardless of whether the U.S. raises interest rates to this fall or not, it's priced in now. And if you think that the U.S. has put up their lowest jobless claims in 40 years and U.S. Dollar didn't go up anymore, that says to me that the September lift off one to two hikes has already been priced into the market. And therefore what would it take to push the U.S. Dollar higher? The U.S. Dollar may now have actually reached its high point against a number of these other currencies unless they actually deliver and start to accelerate interest rate increases even faster than what the streets are already expecting. So I think that's been baked in and that's starting to get baked into currencies because when you see a market that's going up that fails to respond to good news, usually means it's already been priced in. And on that basis then, the balance of probabilities, the surprise is now actually starting to swing back the other way where if they did actually, even if they did start raising interest rates, the U.S. Dollar may not go up anymore because it's already been baked in. Yes, indeed. And if you look at the Dollar Index, which is what we're looking at at the moment, look how far it's gone up in the past 12 months. We're talking 20% or so or more and that is going to have an effect, not only on inflation but also on earnings for U.S. companies. Absolutely, and we're seeing that this week. Why don't we go with that, Michael? Yeah, go on and you go. Okay, so we started to see this show up and in particularly where we're really seeing it is in the technology sector and that's been something that's been building over the last couple of quarters, but in particular it explains why the action we saw earlier this week where we had both Apple and Microsoft beat the Street on headline earnings and yet their stocks post sold off. So maybe you want to pick up there because I know you had some great comments on Apple in particular. Well, Apple in particular was particularly interesting I think because of the fact that even though we sort of met expectations on earnings, what was actually quite interesting from once you dig around into the internals was the level of sales in China, for example, which was 21% lower over the course of the last quarter. Now that for me I think is quite important because I think China is going to be in one of Apple's biggest markets and I think despite the fact that we saw fairly good revenues out of China, those were down 21%, suggests to me that the sell-off that we saw in the Chinese equity market is starting to hit the Chinese middle class. Now obviously Apple products aren't cheap. They're not what you would call products for people lower down the income scale. So in that context I think there is a little bit of concern that Apple's exposure to China as a new market could see an earnings impact going forward and I think yes we have seen a bit of a rebound in the context of yesterday's declines but overall with Apple we're in a trading range above the 200-day moving average. There's a bit of a reversal there and I think we'll continue to trade within that range and if you look at Apple's earnings forward earnings it's around about 15. So I'm not overly concerned about Apple. It still generates $40 to $50 billion a quarter in terms of revenues but some of the other company earnings that we've been seeing from companies say for example like Netflix. Let's look at Netflix and let's compare Netflix to say for example Apple. I'm just going to go back to Apple again and look at Apple's performance this year. That's really done an awful lot. Yeah, I would suggest it's one of those companies. It's a company that is very, very popular. It's iconic. It has some very, very good brands and then we've got a company like... I'm not sure it looks a lot like the Dow and the S&P too. Well, it's not really surprising when you actually consider how big the company is. Exactly. Then let's look at Netflix. That's since the beginning of the year. That stock price has trebled. It's gone from $40 to nearly $120. You compare a company like Netflix which obviously is a very, very growth sensitive stock. It relies on subscriptions and what have you. It trades on forward earnings compared to Apple which is $15. Netflix trades on forward earnings of $475. Wow, that's huge. That's crazy. That's bubble days. That is a bubble valuation. That is a bubble valuation. You can inflate a bubble for quite some time before it goes pop. Would I buy Netflix? Not in a million years. Not even if it was half the price that it is now. Not on that valuation. At the same time, it's a hard one to assure because you're standing in front of a free train. Exactly. The thing is there's a very great big gap between $100 and $108. Gaps generally tend to get filled. We'll see how that pans out. Let's take us back to a chart that I also showed earlier this week. That was as the S&P, as you say, pretty similar to Apple's stock price. Now let's go and look at the Dow. Again, not much difference there. Now let's look at the small cap. Now let's look at the Nasdaq. Let's look at the correlation here since the beginning of the year. For me, this is a bit of a warning sign for US stocks. This is something that I've talked about on Bloomberg earlier this week. We've got record highs between April and May for all of the major indexes. Suddenly here, the Nasdaq in red spikes higher. What's interesting is the small cap continues to track lower. The S&P trade sideways, but the Dow also starts to track lower. Now if you've got markets that are closely correlated or going in the same direction, I generally don't have a problem with thinking from the markets going up. When one particular market basically goes higher but the others don't track it, particularly the US small cap 2000, that makes me a little bit concerned that there's a huge amount of divergence going on and there's an awful lot of uncertainty with respect to where US stocks are going to go next. When you see valuations of 400 times earnings, you really have to question whether or not there is much more upside in US stocks. It's more risky. Particularly when you're looking at something like the Nasdaq taking off like that when the broader markets aren't because it's usually a, that in the past has been a sign of, because the Nasdaq's only 100 stocks and it's 100 tech stocks, tech and a few other things. But a lot of momentum plays in there that you've got to wonder sometimes if speculation's gotten a little bit out of hand when you start seeing stuff like that. Absolutely. That's the earnings story and we saw yesterday's sell-off come off the back of some disappointment from Microsoft, disappointment from Intel, disappointment from IBM, disappointment from Yahoo and a little bit of a negative reaction to Apple. I think it was interesting that Tim Cook said that they were operating in a difficult for an exchange environment, which is code I think for, we're worried about the strength of the dollar. Well, I mean, except 20% over years is going to impact your business of the multinationals, no question. And it's up 8% on the year since the beginning of the year. So that brings us next to the Australian dollar because there's an awful lot of speculation now that after the RBNZ cut rates overnight that the RBA could be next. Now, the RBA has recently cut rates to record loads of 2%. What does that mean for the Aussie dollar? Does that mean that there's more rate cuts on the cards? I think the answer to that is probably yes. Let's look at where the Australian dollars come from since 2007 or 2008. Basically, we're still well above the levels we saw at the beginning of 2008 when we were around about 60 cents. We've broken below the 200-month moving average. We've also broken below the lows that we saw at the beginning of this year, March this year, around about 75. So the direction of travel is potentially for a much lower Australian dollar. There is also something else to be concerned about with respect to the Aussie dollar and it's Australia's over-reliance on commodities, particularly gold, copper, iron ore. Rio Tinto and BHP are basically key exporters to China. And Australia is the key market for Australia. Coal prices are also low. And when you actually look at the economic numbers for Australia, 55% of Australia's exports are basically commodity-based, commodity-driven. Think of what's happened to commodity prices over the last 12 months. In fact, think of what's happened to commodity prices over the last five years. You've only got to look at the Bloomberg Commodities Index or the Reuters CRB Index to know that foreign currency earnings for Australian companies have taken a huge hit over the course of that time, which means that essentially Australia's trade balance is probably going to continue to deteriorate, which means that that 20 years of uninterrupted GDP growth that we've seen out of Australia 25 years now could be at risk. The Australian economy is still growing at 2%, but you have to be aware that further interest rate cuts in Australia will fuel a housing bubble that's already out of control around Melbourne and Sydney. So it's going to be very interesting times for Australia unless they can rebalance their economy away from commodities because the demand that we've seen out of China in the first 15 years of this century is not going to be anywhere near as ferocious as it was, and that is going to have consequences for the Australian economy, which means we're probably going to see a lower Australian dollar, particularly if the RBI cuts rates and people continue to speculate that the Fed will raise. I'm still skeptical that the Fed will raise, but we may get a hike in December, but I don't think we'll get one in September. Colin, anything to add? Yeah, no, I'm basically of the mind with you that I still think the Fed's going to sneak one interest rate in a raise this year, most likely in December just like they did with tapering. They kind of just got it in before the end of the year. I mean, a lot of the Fed members are still talking about wanting to do it this year, even Dr. Yellen who mentioned it in her testimony recently. And for them, I think it's just a matter of that they need to start doing something. They can't stay at zero forever, and the other thing they've talked about is that they're planning on doing it pretty slow. So it's not like in the past where Greenspan, I think he raised interest rates a quarter point at 14 consecutive meetings. It's not going to be like that this time. They'll probably do an increase and then wait a couple of meetings and then do another one, and that sort of thing. They seem to be really big this time on keeping the pace of increases slow, kind of a recognition that they need to start going up, but that they don't want to go up very fast or very aggressively. So I think that they're mindful that they need to get off of zero, but at the same time that they don't want to crush their economy either. That's what it strikes me. It feels like they want to do it and they really want to do it. But they box themselves into a corner because when you look at what's happening to commodity prices, you look at what's happening everywhere else. Everyone else is cutting rates. The truth is the Fed's waited too long again. They really should have, as soon as tapering finished last fall, they should have just done it, really. At the same time, I always find it an interesting one. We talk about 0.25 interest rates, but who's actually paying that? Here we've got 0.5% interest rates, but all the mortgage rate is more like three. The line of credit rate is more like five. We won't even get into what some of the credit cards start charging, right? Yeah, absolutely. It's the same over here. Personal loan over here is 8%. Base rates are at 0.5%. Even if they raise a quarter of a point, is that going to have an impact on consumers? I doubt it. I doubt it, but it probably will have an impact in terms of benchmarks, in terms of how mortgage rates are priced, because they're priced off libel or they're priced off base, so it can affect trackers. But you are right. Basically, you look at rates in the U.S. and you look at rates in the U.K., and the exchange rate itself acts as a form of monetary tightening. Absolutely. That's another point, right? Absolutely. It's true that the big gains that the U.S. dollars made over the last year are certainly the equivalent of several rate hikes. I mean, I've been saying to the opposite of Canada that the way the loonies come down in the last two months is a huge easing. And then in here too, we're talking about rebalancing the economy where the oil price crashed. That took Alberta down with it, and so you've got this Canadian growth has been knocked back to zero, and now you've got to rebalance, but the problem is the rebalancing and the export side and the tourism and the people don't go on the U.S. shopping trips anymore and the movie industry comes back and stuff like that is that all takes longer to kick in, right? So you get the short-term negative, long-term positive, and the U.S. is probably seeing the reverse of that where you get some short-term positive effects and now you're seeing the longer-term negatives on the earnings of people like Apple and the other multinationals is starting to work its way in. Right, we've managed to get through this half an hour and we haven't even mentioned Greece once. I mean... Which is absolutely incredible. So let's move on to the Euro. All right. Because the Euro does appear to be finding a little bit of a base. Yes, it does. I think it's pretty good the last year too. Around 108. It's had two attempts at it since it peaked at 1.14 and a half in May, and it's basically failed on both occasions. So that also begs the question is how much further upside is there in the dollar? Now, if I look at this chart here, which is a daily chart for Euro-dollar, that suggests to me that potentially we could actually track higher through 110. We had a little look at it at 110 earlier today. Through 110 and retest the highs that we saw early this month around about 112. I think if at any point we break below 108, then obviously we can definitely, we can probably move lower. But at the moment, the Euro-dollar trade is what I would call a classic pain trade because everyone wants and thinks it will go lower. And I'm not overly convinced that it will. So you generally will find that every time the market tries to push it lower, you'll get a nice little short squeeze. All the shorts will get taken out. And while it may eventually go lower, it'll probably go higher first. But the big, big level is around about 115. This is a very bullish daily reversal candle here on the Tuesday. I think as long as we can hold above around about 109-2030, then we could well push higher back towards 111-112. So that suggests to me the dollar could weaken. And I'm seeing a similar story played out. Before you leave that, Michael, could I say one thing to that? Yeah, you can. That's a very, very strong base. If you look at this, you've got a double bottom in March and April. Now you've essentially got a double bottom at a higher level here between May and July. That's a really, really strong accumulation pattern there with two support retests kicking into the higher level. On top of that, you're oversold on the stochastic. So it looks like there you're already oversold, I'm sorry, overextended to the downside. I mean, it's certainly looking pretty good here. And this is when the Grexit fears were growing. The euro was bottoming out. It tells me that the euro already had priced it in back in the spring. And that this is starting to shape up as a really nice turnaround here. And you're right also that the sentiment is still very negative on this. And finally, the short euro trade has been very crowded. So there's a potential for buying to come back in as people have to cover that. Let's just do that there. So basically I'm keeping an eye on this trend line here from the June highs. So keep it on this level, ladies and gents, because this could be crucial in the context of where we go next. Looking a little bit overbought at the moment on the four-hour chart, which is what this one is. But overall I'll be looking for a test of this line here and then see how we react around there. I think it's a similar sort of story on the pound against the dollar. Pound has been marginally a little bit stronger. But again, we're finding, it's settling down into a little bit of a sideways range. This is a four-hour chart here. 156.75 is the big, big level on the top side. It was last week's highs. It's also been this week's highs. But again, we've got good support around about 155.20. But below that, we've also got a much longer-term trend line from the lows in May. And we also have the 200-day moving average. That being said, there's probably more potential for a little bit of a drift lower than higher. Now that probably means that Euro-sterling could actually squeeze higher, and Euro-sterling does have a tendency to do precisely that. Just when you think that Euro-sterling is going to go down quite aggressively, suddenly it ratchets higher, takes out all the shorts and then goes lower. So at the moment, I think, and while we're below 156.75 on cable, you've got to be a little bit worried about another test lower before we break out. But overall, I still think cable can go higher, just on the basis of the fact that when the Fed does get around to hiking, I don't think the Bank of England will be too far behind. Agreed. And I think we saw that in the speculation this week, the first round, the MPC minutes come out, and people are starting to think about inflation, and boom-up goes sterling, and then of course we had the retail sales come out this morning, and they missed, and then bang-back down goes sterling. But it seems one of those where people are looking for a reason to speculate on rate hikes. It's kind of like what we've seen, the flip side of the earnings, where the earnings are coming out, and people are looking for reasons to sell. It looks to me as though people are looking for reasons to go long on this, and looking for reasons to think that liftoff could be coming to the UK as well. Yeah, I don't think it'll be happening overnight. Basically I think the August meeting will be interesting in the context of what Martin Weill and Ian McCafferty do, because this time last year they defended, and we're calling for rate hikes from the Bank of England, around about this time last year, they changed their votes at the beginning of this year to go along with the consensus. But given some of their recent comments, there is a good chance that we could go for another 7-2 split in terms of unchanged and a 25 basis point rate hike. What that doesn't mean, however, is that we're in danger of putting rates up in the short to medium term, because we were 7-2 for about the last three or four months of last year, and rates never went up. So descent is nothing new. If we get descent, we may get a little bit of a spike higher in the pound against the dollar, but with numbers with respect to 7-2, that's not going to move the dial in the context of timing. Which I believe the last talk was still the middle of 2016. Yeah, or the beginning. Certainly the beginning at the earliest. Yeah, I wonder if they'd have to go for the beginning with the risk of a Brexit referendum later. When would that be later in the year? 2017. It's not going to happen before then. I'll be surprised if it does. Which brings me to Euro sterling, which is the daily chart, and again here we're getting the oscillator starting to turn upwards. We've got two very strong upward candles in the past three days, which does seem to suggest the market is a little bit short. But overall... It looks to me like just another trading bounce within a broader downtrend so far. Because you're still on the channel of lower highs and lower lows, and you've gotten oversold and you're bouncing here. But I think you'd have to, at a minimum, clear that previous high, which I can't read very well. 7-2, 20. Yeah, you'd have to take that out before we could think that it's anything more than just another dead cat bounce. Yeah, as I say, we've made marginal new lows around about 69-30, which coincides with the lows that we saw at the end of 2007. Going all the way back here. So this November 2007 I think was... Where are we? Let's just do this. Yeah, November 2007 low was 69-20. So that was a fairly key support level there before we basically went higher. That's held so far. So as I say, we could go all the way back to 72 on this particular short squeeze without undermining the bearish scenario too much. Now let's look at the dolly end, because this chart here, that looks like a bearish engulfing day. And also, 124.50.60, in this series of peaks here, that seems to suggest there is natural interest to sell. Given what Coroda said, Bank of Japan Governor Coroda said earlier this week, has he called a short-term top in dolly end? It's going to take something quite significant to push it through 124.50. So while we're below 124.50, there is potential for us to drift back down again towards the top of the Ichimoku Cloud, which is around about 123.20, 123.30. Anything you want to add there, Colin? No, I mean, it just looks like, again, we've gotten overbought and rolling over, and so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it come back off within this channel here, but that 124.00 in change is definitely looking like a pretty strong resistance level, or up to 125.00, because even if we go back towards that one day up peak above 125.00 there, we look at the prior high there, was about 125.00. So 124.60, 125.00, it looks like it's emerging as a pretty significant resistance zone, even just taking out that one day wonder there as a one-time thing. The other days are all kicking in pretty hard, and I mean, when you look at the one day, it popped up and then bang, went right back down, is also telling you that that was a false head fake. And the fact that you said it earlier, when a weekly jobless claims number as good as the one that we just got doesn't precipitate a significant rally in Dolly Inn, then you have to ask yourself what will. Absolutely. So caution is the watchword with respect to the long dollar strategy, I think, at these sorts of levels. Right, ladies and gentlemen, we're pushing the boundaries of time here. We've been going 45 minutes. We're going to wrap this up, but before we do, is there anything that any of you would like either Colin or myself to look at right now? Please use the chat facility to basically address your questions. Otherwise, we'll wind this up. We'll post it online, and it will be available on YouTube. Right, we can ask the S&P 500. Let's have a quick look at that. We're range bound in that, I think. That's a very strong bearish candle there. Especially fairly similar to the Apple chart, isn't it? Good resistance. To be quite honest, I think we're range bound on the S&P. The oscillators starting to turn over a little bit. We could probably go back to 2130. But overall, I think the direction of travel here, Colin, for me, is for us to drift back down again. Yeah, I think we're sideways to lower within the sideways channel. Could you bring that out to a one-year trade, please, Michael? Or at least back to the beginning of the year. There you go. There, that's perfect. So we're in the sideways trading range for the S&P. And it's similar to ranges we've seen before around the time that the Fed was starting to move towards tightening. You get a case where the liquidity kind of drives up that was pushing the market higher. But at the same time, so that caps your upside. Your downside gets limited by the fact that corporate earnings are generally going okay because the economy is improving and you get stuck. So we saw this in 94.95. We saw it in 0.405. And we're getting it again here in 15, where we're into a sideways pattern for U.S. markets that can drag on for nine months to a year. So if you measure nine months off February or if you say, well, maybe this started, kind of started back in November, you measure a year off November, puts you into October and November, we're still kind of in the middle innings of this. And I think that with the historical seasonality of the fact that August and September are usually not very good months for stock markets through to about mid-October, that I think we're probably going to see this in the future and it's sideways for quite a while. We've bumped up against the top, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to retest the low end of that channel in the coming weeks. I think a lot will depend also on next week's FOMC meeting. Absolutely. We've got Fed meeting next week. Not expecting any change, but I think what we will be looking for is any sort of signposting as to what the Fed may want to be doing when it reconvenes in September. So look at the statement language for any clues as to what policy makers are thinking with respect to the U.S. economy and the strength of the dollar more importantly. And I think the markets come in pretty solidly behind pricing in a September increase. So if you see them move towards that, the U.S. dollar maybe might go up a little bit, but not a lot, but I think the surprise might be to the markets would be if they start to back away from September. That's where you could see some movement or action in the dollar. So next Wednesday, keep an eye on that, ladies and gents. It could actually be a significant dollar mover. Right. On that note, Colin and I would like to thank you for your time today. And until next Monday's webinar with my colleague Jasper, the next non-farm payrolls webinar with myself and Colin. Both Colin and myself would like to thank you for your time today and we'll talk to you very, very soon.