 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Weekend update show. I actually hope everybody is having a great start to the weekend. It is a little bit before 9 o'clock on a Saturday morning trying to knock out the updates now so I can enjoy the whole weekend. So my kids' schedule just kind of enjoyed this beautiful spring weather. If you are brand new to the channel, we would invite you to subscribe, like, share, and take continuously take this journey with us for non-stop, unbiased technical analysis on a day-to-day basis, which again, and if you look at this market is a pretty smart idea to kind of take that route because everybody knows the last, it's been now two and a half weeks. We've been really, really stuck in this pretty aggressive channel. When I mean aggressive, I mean super duper tight. And you'd figure the market would get above this channel, get below this channel with the earnings and we'll get to that in a second. But so far that hasn't been the case. And really I don't remember any point, at least the last five, ten years that the market has traded this tight without any resolution or any light at the end of the tunnel. And one thing I always talk about in trading is the sum of the parts versus the whole. So for example, during 2022, we spent about 85% below the 50-day moving average and that was obviously a clear sell signal with the Nasdaq down over 30%. And you started seeing a lot of people talking about, well, this stock is standing out. And my whole point was, well, why are you focusing on the one stock that's standing out? I would rather focus on the 20,000 stocks that are not because you get a lot more opportunity on that side of the market versus trying to pick a needle in a haystack to see if you could get something going. This market has been completely the opposite of that, especially in the last two weeks. Are you getting opportunities? Absolutely. Absolutely. If all you guys who've been with us for 13 years, you kind of know that this market is a little bit different in the last two and a half weeks, but you're still getting some pretty good opportunities. The only problem with this type of scenario is now it's kind of flipped. Instead of looking at the whole versus the sum of the parts, now we're looking for the sum of the parts versus the whole. And you can see the whole, the market's just not doing anything. I think everybody could agree with that. I don't care what your processes, what type of stocks you trade or how you go about your day. But you can see how, especially in the cues that the market hasn't done anything. It tried to break out a couple of times and failed. It tried to break down a couple of times and held. So there's a lot of two-way conversations that, hey, look how great the bulls are holding on. But then again, the flip side as well, if they're holding on so great, why can't they push forward? These are all valid points. And I think eventually this will play itself out. I think just one day you're going to turn on your PC and the next thing you know you have a measured potential day and it's just not one stock, it's a whole plethora of companies all going the same direction. But until that happens, we kind of have to address what we're seeing now. So this is a type of market right now that the one stock that's standing out is going to be the play. And you're seeing that pretty much every single day, whether it's Tesla blowing up on earnings, whether it's Amazon yesterday coming out with news that they're having more layoffs and the stock just really just absolutely took off. This is literally the one stock per day, the one stock a day in every single industry that's making that move. And the toughest part about trading as a whole and there's so many different moving parts is identify the stocks that you feel comfortable trading based on your process. Now imagine that type of scenario has been shrunk by 95%. So then you have to physically identify the one stock. And that's why it's a little bit challenging. But again, we're professionals when I say we everybody, anybody who's opened up an account, deposited capital and clicking the mouse, you're a professional, right? Whether you're doing this thing 15 minutes or 30 years, you are a professional. Your money is green as everybody else. The key is to kind of dissect what's going on, make adjustments, right? You could either make excuses or make adjustments and kind of let this thing play out and eventually it will. When you look at the scoreboard this week, nothing really stands out. All the indexes were down 2 tenths of a percent. S&P was down 1 tenth of a percent. As you can imagine, completely flat session. The earnings season so far has been kicked off very, very uneventful. Stocks are meeting or beating expectations on numbers that are already taking down. So when you look at, for example, what the banks did, right? JP Morgan had a great, great quarter for revised expectations. Same thing with Citibank. When you flip, for example, to the technology names, Netflix didn't, right? Netflix didn't had a nice little haircut. Tesla came in, declined 20 percent of earnings year over year. They didn't, but when you look at all this, right? When you look at the grand scheme of things, we're still not able to... Well, the bears are not able to make a dent in all this futility, uneventful earnings. And the question is, well, what happens next? And that's the whole point. We don't need to worry about what happens next. We need to worry about the price action getting out of this rut. This week you have an incredibly important week of earnings. You have Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft. That's going to set the tone. Is it possible that we get that monster, monster break out of this consolidation cycle one way or another this week? I'm hoping so, right? I'm hoping so. I think this is a scenario that if this is going to be the week that we finally get out of this really, really tight cycle, I think all the big superstars in the tech industries, they have to play that part. The volatility has to get expanded and the ranges have to get expanded. So if I'm a betting man and I'm not, but if I'm a betting man, I think that we are poised for a potential crescendo in this channel and we're eventually going to get out of it at some point with all these companies breaking up, right? Fingers crossed. We don't know. But if not, again, we're not going to sit there and complain. We're going to take what the market's giving us and as life says, life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. So it's a very, very important week. I think the market is probably going to bust out of this channel one way or another this week and we'll be ready for it. So here's the key metrics, right? This is what we need to know. We know how good the bulls have been in absorbing bad news. This has been the whole case since the January 6th reversal. This has been the whole case since we reclaimed the 50-day moving average that we lost in 2022 on January 11th. And here we are, right? Here we are, not that far away from the year-to-date highs. But when that again, we're sitting right on the bottom of the range as well. So here's the key levels, what we need to know going into this week. We'll look at all the indexes together. So the bulls on Friday, they started selling off and they were teetering around the 20-day moving average. That's the really, really good intermediate range here and that's the rising support. Any close, okay? Any close this week below 314 is a sell signal, okay? Is a sell signal on the bulls? This is not something that you need to have a discussion, long-winded argument with somebody on social media over. Facts of facts, technical analysis, technical analysis. So if we lose 314 on the close, it's going to trigger a sell signal. Doesn't mean this is the top of the market. But again, if you believe in the theory of Stock Street from supply to supply and demand to the man, well, here's the demand zone that it held on Friday and here's the next demand zone. It's this rising Bollinger band into this 308, 309 level. So 314, definitely important level in the lines of the sand for the bulls to kind of wake back up. And we tell me if you ever heard the story again, they're going to need to reclaim at least this 320. If the bulls can close above 320, it will take out one, two, three days worth of selling. If we can reclaim the 320 back to the upside, then I do believe we start attacking back this double top we've seen around the 320. And I'm assuming if Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft have all these good earnings, there's a shot that happens. So our fingers crossed, we have 320 closed to the upside, super important 314 closed to the downside, super important as well. When you look at the SPY, kind of doing the same thing, just a little bit better. It's a little bit more condensed, a little bit more orderly, but the range is shrunk completely. So if you look at the predominant members of the S&P 500, you got the banks and then you got stocks like Tesla, right? Yeah, Tesla that gave up their earnings, right? Gave up their earnings on price action, but yet the bulls still didn't give up the 10-day moving average, and that's a very important level. So the SPYs are going into Monday session 410 to the downside. If we start cracking 410, you can see 410 is the low on 414. 410 is the low on 420, smoke them if you got them. And 410 was Friday's low. So you can see that's the line in the sand. There's nobody trying to trick you here, it's 410. 410 is support. We start losing 410, I think we get a flush to 407, 408. For the bulls to take control, we need to close over the 414 level. That will confirm the 5-day moving average, which is the shortest term sentiment. On the IWM, a little bit more of a mess than anything else. It's number one, it's deep under supply. The upside here is super-duper limited unless we have a massive gap above 280 or 182. But you can see there's a no play. There's like a no-fly zone to the upside, at least on the IWM ETF side. On the downside, you can see we would need to clear out all these trees in the forest off this 182 level of the fly. We're still five points away from that. But there's a downside pivot here as well. You can see the low here on 414 is 175, Friday's low is 175 and change. Technical analysis is not random. Stocks are going to stop at very, very important inflection points and they're going to need to hold technically. 175 to the downside on the IWM and this thing will bring in more sellers. If you look at individual stocks going into this week, you got AMD. It's definitely sold off very, very nicely just like the SPY who held that certain level three times in a row. Look at AMD. AMD is now holding on to the 50-day moving average. One, two, three, four days, four of the last five days. If AMD starts losing the 50-day moving average, this thing's going to snap because that 50-day is super-duper important. All you need to do is look what happens when you get above the 50-day. Here's losing the 50-day right here. The last time we lost the 50-day was on December 15th. Look what it did. One, two, three, four, five, six, five out of six days to the downside. If you look at AMD right now, if it starts losing the 50-day moving average, it's going to get hit as well. Look at a name for example like HIMS. We've been talking about HIMS. If you've been watching the broadcast for the whole week, you can see the stock broke out here. The stock looks absolutely great. HIMS, a name like HIMS, looks like it wants to challenge the, let's say, January fair, the March highs. If it does, it's going to explode. HIMS is a name you definitely want to entertain more on dips than on strength, but it looks really, really good. A name like ONN we've been talking about now also for the last week is, again, broke out here. Again, another name you want to attack on dips. Again, all these stocks that are not beta, keep this in mind, guys. They're retail darlings. Nobody is sitting there and going, wow, no institutional money flow is really sitting there unless you're very intimate with the company. Nobody's going to sit there and start talking about how we need to be an ONN. Most people don't. I didn't know the stock existed until a week ago. I've been doing this for quite a minute. A name like HIMS, a name like ONN, you would definitely want to buy on dips. A name like DraftKings. We talked about this week as well, right? DraftKings broke out. But again, if you see how the stock has been entertaining, you want to buy all these stocks on dips. Anything that's not beta, it's very tough to buy on strength because, let's be honest, majority of retail is underfunded a trading less than three to five years and they're flipping for dimes in 20, 20 cent, 30 cent lots. Or they just don't have enough size to push it through with any type of conviction. Anything on the $20, $30, $40 a share, you want to entertain them into weakness, into buying them into rising support instead of buying them into strength because you see what happens. These stocks go up 15, 20 cents. They sell off 30 cents. The retail public gets out because, again, they get out and the next thing you know, two hours later or a day later, the stock is flying. So consider the smaller names, not small cap names, but the smaller dollar names, the stocks that are strong to buying them into rising support. And if you look at DraftKings, for example, you see this orange line, right? That's the five-day. That's the five-day moving average we continue to talk about. Look how every single time it comes into this orange line, it bounces, right? Came in here, bounced. Came in here, bounced. Came in here, bounced. Came in here, bounced. So any weakness into names like ONN, HIMS, DraftKings, you want to buy on dips just because, you know, they're looking very, very strong, but they're looking strong when they're catching light-volume back-tests and then trapping eager shorts. Even a name, for example, like ETNB, right? Look at the breakout. Look at the breakout that it had. A huge, huge three-day breakout. But the point is the value continues to be buying these things on dip versus a stock like a beta name that you could buy into a certain level. And the stock will explode three to six points because you're having that institutional money flow and you're having that big option flow behind it. So something just to consider, especially in this market. You know, Tesla, look, Tesla was down 20. Okay, it was down 20 on earnings. It was up $2 on Friday, inside day. You know, it's not resting to go higher, trust me. It's not, you know, maybe I'll have one more update, maybe. But eventually, this week, the longer it continues to go sideways, if it starts taking down this whole channel here, and this is the key here, if it starts taking down this whole channel here at some point this week, especially the earnings low, this thing will crack. So, you know, we definitely want to watch that as well. Netflix kind of the same scenario as well. You know, Netflix is attempting to bounce off its earnings. You know, we want to watch the bottom channel here this week. You know, let's see if it could test the earnings low. If it does, it could be, you know, it could be a pretty good, it could be a pretty good continuation place. Those names we want to definitely watch as well. You know, look at GameStop, right? Not usually a name that I would talk about, but just like AMD. And again, we all know GameStop. Right. This thing is holding on to the 50-day moving average as well, right? Take a look at this thing. This thing starts closing below the 50-day moving average, as much as, you know, the mother of all squeezes or diamond hands, whatever the hell they call it. You know, we all know what GameStop is and what GameStop is it, at least most of us know. So this thing closes below the 50-day moving average. It's going to get hit again. So keep an eye on that as well. Other than that, you know, we're just taking it day by day, right? Day by day, trade by trade. Look at a name like NVIDIA, for example, right? This thing looks like it's, you know, this has been one of the more more hated squeezes in a while. People, you know, people have been trying to short this thing every time in weakness and every time in weakness just keeps on bouncing up. Again, and just like the NASDAQ 100 that held the 20-day, so did NVIDIA. But, you know, it's NVIDIA stone. If it's going to crap, and again, we don't know, but if it's going to crack, it's going to need to lose that 20-day moving average. And if it does, that's something I definitely, definitely watch. I want to watch on my radar going into this week. Quickly, let's go over the pivots. Let's go over the pivots from Friday. NVIDIA 270, if it builds below can flush. Here was NVIDIA. It took down that 270. It traded all the way down to 267 in change. ADMA, nice little small cap stock. Oh, first of all, I forgot about Tesla. Green to red for experienced traders. No, this is not a pivot, just confirmation. Still needs to confirm their earnings lows. You know, $2 move down. $2 move down on Tesla. We had a great, great pivot on it on Thursday from the 66-60s area. But really, you know, it's Tesla continues to be fantastic. ADMA, nice little small cap. I try to, if I find these small caps, I try to put it into the webinar feed. ADMA, $3.50 needs to be built. Here's ADMA. Slow mover, right? Not exciting, not sexy. But again, here's another perfect example. The stock took out the 50-day moving average. Now it's building, you know, only went up a dime. But slow and steady I think will win the race on this one. AI finally cracked, right? AI 2040, if it builds below, can flush. Here was AI, right? Finally cracked above this whole range, below this whole range here, 2040. Got down to 1950s. This is the lowest close in this whole formation. So keep an eye on this thing for potential further selling. ST&E, I didn't think, I don't think it confirmed. At least I wasn't watching it. ST&E 1170, yeah, it did confirm 1170. Yeah, this is the highest close in this whole formation. I just wasn't watching this thing. Guys, watch this ST&E. This thing has a range going all the way back to February the 2nd. If this thing starts getting above this February 2nd range, this thing can wake up as well. DraftKings, again, broke out at 21 confirmed. This is the highest close in the whole formation for DraftKings. Red closed at 22 bucks, trading 2210 after hours. Nice little close there. We talked about AI just now. AMD, again, AMD continues to hold that 88 level. So we're set up for next week. We set up for next week. We absolutely know the bottom channels where we need to hold. We know the top channels where they need to reclaim. The key is don't get frustrated. Don't get frustrated. Eventually this market will start to expand. Hopefully this is the week with the mega cap earnings that will do so. But more important, guys, the one little message I want to leave all you guys with. There's a lot of people. Unfortunately, I grew up on a trading desk. I met all my lifelong friends 24 years ago at Carlin on the Carlin desk. In 1999, unfortunately, majority of you guys, the only thing you guys have exposure to is social media. Social media, social media, traders, whatever the case may be. People sit there all day on social media and they try to convince you how smart, how brilliant they are. They have the answers to every single question that the universe has. If you ask them what's the meaning of life, I'm sure they can answer that. But guys, I want to reassure you one thing. We're all human beings. We're all flawed. Whether we're trading for 24 years like myself or you could be trading 24 months, like many of you guys watching this broadcast, but understand we're all flawed. We all come from the same place and we all go through the same struggles, mentally, financially, emotionally. So we are our own domain and there's nobody smarter than you. There's nobody that's more intelligent than you. They just have more screen time. They just have more hours behind the computer that they've seen some of the answers that you haven't. So instead of concentrating on the person that's going to enable you and putting you in a situation that you need them, I want you to understand that you are the rock star. It's not them. You are the rock star and you just don't know it yet. So believe in yourself, whatever process you trade, trust that process and good things are going to happen. Guys, God bless. Hope everybody has a phenomenal weekend and I will see you all on Monday.