 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Pretty fun a slate of baseball games a four or two night over at Fandall sportsbook We're gonna go across a diamond all the way We're talking money lines strikeout props and even a couple of Home run props that I like for today two money lines three strikeout props to home run props all available at Fandall sportsbook And all ones I like quite a bit We'll break those down why I'm into them and what we should do with them over at Fandall sportsbook welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down this Monday MLB slave breaking down where my numbers are showing value over at Fandall sportsbook in my top bets of the night We'll dig on into the money lines first then go strikeout props Home run props and also recap last week But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big week this week You're on the show our full NFL draft prop betting preview with Dr. Ed Fang is coming up tomorrow I've had on to break down his favorite props We have not yet discussed here on the show for Thursday's NFL draft on Wednesday Branding a do a little swing by talk about some golf Well, let's talk NBA playoffs here. 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this was a bit of a surprise because my model was low on the white socks coming into this year it has not told me to bet them super often thus far so seeing them pop up as being a value did catch me by surprise I think it may be due to the disconnect between Lanslin's results so far this year and some of the underlying numbers now I say some intentionally there because not all of them are positive his era is 7.59 but quality strikeout rates not too many walks for Lanslin he is letting up too much hard contact which is why his expected era at baseball savannah 6.16 but that number takes a bit longer to stabilize than plate discipline numbers anything with bad at ball numbers will take longer to stabilize than plate discipline numbers chris bassett on the opposing side has had two consecutive good starts wanting it to try which you can discount other one though against houston which is a decent offense I think there's enough here for me to bite on the white socks at this number so the white socks money line plus 144 again I've got that at 44.7 percent win I think their quality better today so the white socks the first team I want to turn to for tonight the second one is actually going to be a bit later and this one is going to be the san francisco giants there plus 106 here against the st louis cardinals now this was even money earlier on this morning over at fan will for the giants it is moved a bit towards the cardinals but I think that was more so to get in line with the rest of the market because the giants typically plus 105 across the board regardless whether it's even money plus 106 I have value on the giants because my numbers have them as favored in this game 53.3 percent win odds here alex cob getting the start for the giants he has looked lights out with his new slider so far this year he's got a 2.90 skill interactive era across four starts he is letting up hard contact which we do not like but a lot of that hard contact is on the ground and the hard contact rate I'm using is baseball savants hard contact rate which means an exit below 95 plus miles per hour and 95 is bad regardless but it's less bad when it's on the ground and cob has a 59 percent ground ball rate across those four starts he does face a very tough offense and the cardinals for tonight even against righties are not as good as lethal as they are against lefties but they're still very good against righties a 117 WRC plus and the current active roster since the start of last year so they're definitely tough but again I think that cobs ground ball right helps keep things in check here they're at home I feel comfortable giving the giants slight edge here so it has moved to plus 106 maybe keep an eye on that market see if we can get maybe a little bit to 110 or so but even at 106 even if it goes back to even even money I still think there's value in the giants so the giants to me a good money line bet for today so the two money lines I like across baseball for today I got the white socks at plus 144 and the giants at plus 106 based on the current odds at fan dual sportsbook strikeout props there are three of them my favorite one is going to be in the tigers versus brewers game I want to check this one first to make sure it is still there because it was a different number in other books but it is still there as of right now that is Matthew Boyd under five and a half strikeouts at minus 148 now minus 148 is laying a pretty big number on an under at five and a half but I do feel really good in this one because you look at other books this number is at four and a half elsewhere it is plus money on the under but I think it should be four and a half versus five and a half Boyd has yet to have more than four strikeouts so far this year his max pitch count is 82 so that pitch count could spike in this game but he's on the road facing the brewers they've got some pretty solid right he's like William Petraeus quite a bit will be Adamus guys like that it's not the world's best match not the worst either but it's not the best Boyd has had some success moving back into the rotation but it's I think I think at least all been due to his suppression of hard contact that's a great thing to have as a pitcher because contact suppression is a skill it matters it's a great thing to have but it's not going to get you strikeouts he has been you know 344 so far this year I have Boyd projected to go above that at 4.20 for tonight but I still think that there is good value on the under at five and a half so again minus 148 is definitely a lot to lay if that were to go down to four and a half I do have him as a little bit as a favorite to go under four and a half as well so if this number moves down to four and a half or if you can't bet at fan duel I would see some value on under four and a half but I prefer to lay the juice at minus 148 under five and a half because to me having two strikeouts in wiggle room or 1.8 strikeouts wiggle room is better than having less than that at a better number so Matthew Boyd under five and a half minus 148 the first bet in terms of strikeouts for tonight the second one is in a rematch of a matchup we saw about 11 days ago that is Johnny Brito facing off against the Minnesota twins the first matchup did not go well for Brito and I like his under her tonight under four and a half for Brito is minus 38 in the strikeout department and it's not just that twins game Brito has had more than three strikeouts just one so far this year and this is at four and a half one of those poor showings was against Minnesota if you remember that game was one where Edward Julian made his debut and the twins have like 16 home runs in the first inning Brito went two-thirds of knitting no strikeouts one walk seven earned runs now he faces them again in this time he's on the road now the caveat there is it's extremely cold tonight in Minneapolis which does favor pitching versus hitting so that could aid Brito a decent amount but the twins have gotten Jorge Polanco back since that time there's an outside chance to be Alex Kurilak we back to I have Brito projected for a 3.38 strikeouts so you know kind of like Boyd it is a lot to lay minus 138 but I think that's justified here so Brito under four and a half strikeouts minus 138 hasn't had a ton so far this year repeat matchup on the road twins getting healthier I think we should lay the minus 138 on the under with Brito here the final strikeout prop is out in Arizona that's something that Brad Keller Brad Keller is a very different pitcher this year than he was last year if you look at his two starts he has gone over three and a half strikeouts twice in four starts so you see minus 112 and over three and a half you might think okay he's done it 50 percent of the time while I want the over here but the two games where he did go over he had six and seven strikeouts and that leads to a strikeout rate of 21 percent for Keller thus far and I put a lot of stock in that because he's a very different pitcher he is effectively taken everything he did last year where the results were pretty awful and put in the trash very different repertoire 20.7 strikeout rates I've got Keller projected for 4.46 strikeouts here so not a huge number but to get over three and a half you don't need a huge number other reason I can feel good about Keller getting to four strikeouts here is because of length he went 105 pitches in one of his starts 94 and another I'm projected at 95 right now which means I could be under what he ultimately winds up going he's facing out with Arizona here Arizona below average in terms of strikeouts versus righties a 20.2 percent strikeout rate versus righties since the start of last year so not a big strikeout team but Keller goes deep in games has been getting a decent number of strikeouts this year at least relative to previous years and I think with a respectable ground ball right may allow him to go deeper in the game as well be a bit more effective so Brad Keller over three and a half minus 112 third strikeout prop I want to go to so the three strikeout props Brad Keller over three and a half minus 112 Matthew Boyd under five and a half minus 148 and Johnny Brito under four and a half at minus 138 as mentioned though there are actually a couple of home run props that I like for today and one of them is actually in that exact same game we talked about with Keller with the Diamondbacks and the Royals I love MJ Melendez to go deep he is six to one right now at Fandall Sportsbook and I frankly don't really understand why this is the best game in terms of weather for tonight where temperatures would be in the 80s they typically leave the roof open at Chase Field when that's the case so that's a positive here and Melendez has gotten very unlucky so far in 2023 his Woba is weighted on base average is 280 but his expected Woba at Baseball Savant is 346 huge discrepancy there and the reason it's expected Woba is so high despite a big strikeout rate is that he has a 17.8 percent barrel rate with a 53 percent fly ball rate and a 62 percent fly ball rate he is or 62 percent hard hit rate so he's putting the ball in the air and hitting it hard that's going to lead to strikeouts eventually just striking out too much he's facing Tommy Henry here and Henry can get some strikeouts for sure so that's one concern but Henry when he made a short stand the majors last year led up a 39 percent hard hit rate with a 42 percent fly ball rate so Melendez gets a good park for home runs for tonight is facing a pitcher who lets up a lot of fly balls in hard contact and Melendez himself is due for some positive aggression I think that adds up to make him a really good value bet at six to one I was looking here at Rhode Island Sportsbook try to bet him here he is plus three seven so can't take that one that's annoying but if Andrews Sportsbook they are far more generous you can get him at six to one there the other home run prop that I like is also one a guy who barrels the ball a lot and that's going back to another game we talked about before with the Tigers and the Brewers the guy I like here is Kerry Carpenter Carpenter's home run home run odds at Fandall Sportsbook were plus 630 and they are still there plus 630 for Carpenter to go deeper today for the Detroit Tigers he's facing Colin Ray and Ray has always struggled with hard contact it's a 50 percent hard hit rate this year it's a very small sample just two starts but looking back to 2021 looking back to his first in the big leagues has always led up a lot of hard contact and Carpenter supplies it he has a 20 percent barrel rate so far this year it was 11 percent last year 11 percent is very good for a young guy like Carpenter so he took that number and it's almost doubled it Carpenter puts the ball in the air they're in the walkie first night I am guessing the roof will be closed there because it is pretty cool and like Melendez Carpenter's home run odds much shorter elsewhere again you know in the threes at some other spots but plus 630 at Fandall Sportsbook so both MJ Melendez and Kerry Carpenter in my eyes very good home run bets for today as you know home run that's my most not my most comfortable market but these are two I feel pretty good about for today so Carpenter plus 630 Melendez 6 to 1 the home run bets I am turning to for today so hopefully that sets you up for a fun night across major league baseball and you can get those bets in we'll see how they play out but I think all those look pretty okay as far as this week that's gonna wrap up our forward looking stuff for today but as always we do want to recap what went down here on the show in previous weeks to give you some transparency recap our bets and let you know how things went here on the show let's start things off and talking about last week and talking about the UCL the UEFA Champions League we had Dr. Ed Feng on last week to preview that the UCL quarterfinals you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank and Ed's one bet that he liked a lot in the UCL last week was Benfica to win over into Milan at plus 240 and Benfica was down three to one in the second half in this match I think they were down three to one in like the 68th minute but they scored goals in the 86 minutes and in stoppage time to get a draw so no win there on the bet but they did make a close at the end Benfica did get the draw they made a close so not a winner no cash in our pockets but I think that Ed being behind them made a lot of sense just couldn't quite get the win there we'll add on again tomorrow to break down his thoughts on the NFL Draft and again follow out on Twitter at the power rank our golf guy last week was Brandon Gadoula as always you can find him on Twitter at Gadoula 13 previewing the Zurich classic the winners of that event were Nick Hardy and Davis Riley they were not on Brandon's card the outrides Brandon likes were Spawn and Buckley at 32 to one and Mitchell and in at 13 to one Mitchell and Imk in contention pretty much the entire week to finish six Spawn and Buckley finished 26 the non-outrides of Brandon were Robbie Shelton and Lee Hodges at plus 330 and that was for a top 10 and then he had Woo and Bramlett top 20 a plus 135 Woo and Bramlett did give it a good run just a couple of strokes off and finished 26 they were two strokes off Shelton and Hodges missed the cut so we'll bring it back on Wednesday this week preview the Mexican Mexico open so not Tuesday in the typical slot we'll add on there but we'll get Brandon's thoughts on the Mexico open next week and then we get back to some elevated fields for the PGA the following week after that in the EPL our guest this week was Austin cast you can find him on Twitter at Austin cast find his work over at numberfire.com and Austin recommended three bets all three wound up winning those were the Lester money line at plus 145 liver pool over two and a half goals at minus 130 and Mohammed Salah to score a goal at minus 134 or what minus 135 Lester won they beat the walls two to one liver pool 132 so I get the over two and a half goals and the guy who put them over two and a half goals was Salah he had a goal in the 70th minutes so a clean sweep there for Austin again at plus 145 minus 130 and minus 135 good calls by Austin there again you can find his full EPL betting guides over at numberfire.com find him on Twitter at Austin cast to see his great work there our UFC guest this past week was Austin Swain you can find him on Twitter at a Swain three he had a recommendation in the in the in the headliner for this week Curtis Blades he liked Blades by submission at nine to one so going out of a limb there and Blades did not win so couldn't get that one there but again when you're doing long long shot bets they're typically long shots for a reason and you're going to lose those more often than not but I think value is value so I like the analysis there by Austin at nine to one just couldn't quite get the win money lines for Austin we're on Dana Botcher-Gall probably butchered that pronunciation over Brady Highstand at minus 150 Highstand got the win there Matthew Semmelsberger money line at minus 113 he lost his event and then he had Lucindo by knockout or submission at plus 220 Lucindo did win but it was by decision versus knockout or submission so again you know you take some swings I like Austin's willingness to take the value where he saw it if it was on you know long shots that don't have super high probability of winning couldn't quite get the job done there but appreciate his willingness to seek out value where he saw it in that one in NASCAR I had three different outrides for this week one of those was in the Xinnody series that was Josh Bellicchi at 200 to one he was 40 to one podium 14 or 14 to one to finish inside the top five Bellicchi actually closed at minus one or at uh not minus oh that'd be great uh plus 125 or he was 125 to one to win when he was 200 to one we recommended him here on the show so did get some closing line value on that and Bellicchi hung out in the back for most of this race kind of mining his own business it was a pretty clean race the opening part of it and eventually chaos started to rack up as the race went along so Bellicchi you know because he had kept his nose clean worked his way forward and was inside the top 10 late in that race but then there was a wreck with a couple laps left and Bellicchi got caught up in it as Daniel Hemmerk wrecked so he went up wrecking uh he also took out the guys I had bet that after qualifying I'd brought Moffitt I'd taken post qualifying and Ryan Sieg they all got wrecked in the same wreck so that was a not a fun one for me Sieg and Moffitt were one two at one point to see them all wreck together was not super enjoyable but uh Bellicchi David Aron uh was hoping to get that 14 to one top five but couldn't quite get there in the Xfinity series in the Cup series the two outrides I had were Ryan Blaney at 11 to 1 and Eric Jones at 28 to 1 Blaney finished second and led most of the second half of that race he ran out front kind of controlled the thing he had gotten passed on a restart I thought he's gonna run out of gas uh so I thought I'd lose that way he got and passed on the restarts and he was running seconds behind Bubba Wallace and Wallace was trying to throw a block and threw too many blocks and Blaney got in the back of him and it caused a wreck now Blaney didn't get in the wreck but the wreck slowed him down enough where Kyle Busch passed him right before the caution so Busch justifiably won they made the right call Blaney finished seconds kind of a bummer to miss out on 11 to 1 uh the ticket for him but I think that with Talladega for me even if I have a guy who's leading entering the last lap you kind of know you're not in a position like you can't feel bad like you feel like oh yeah bad beat it wasn't a bad beat like it's always what could happen with Talladega so 11 to 1 couldn't quite hit that last same thing happened last year there were Jones I had if it's 71 twin Talladega leading in the last lap got passed by Ross Chastain finished sixth at least Blaney finished third but uh that's kind of things that go with Talladega does not count as a bad beat even if it might feel bad to have a guy lose the lead with two laps to go as far as Jones at 28 to 1 he ran a smart race he kept on trying to make the third line work which it didn't work the entire race he was the one guy who was able to kind of like be a catalyst out there and make his way forward but couldn't make it stick to get himself all the way to the front at the end of the race though was working his way forward he was good on fuel because he had topped off a couple of times and he was up in the top 10 that big wreck towards the end pushing him up towards sixth so I thought he ran a smart race just didn't quite have like the horsepower and uh the the cooperation he needed to get the job done finished sixth so two outrides for NASCAR in the cup series finished second and sixth kind of how it goes in super speed ways I'm okay with it you know I always want to win the bets but I thought there were good process bets and they both finished pretty well just couldn't quite get the win kind of the uh theme of the week between uh the Woo and Bramut ones for Brandon and then the Benfica recommendation for Ed as well so thankfully Austin Cass bailing us out by going three for three in EPL last week that is all that we have here for today here on covering the spread but as mentioned we are back once again tomorrow with Dr. Ed Feng talking to Menefell Draft that'll be up in the afternoon record uh sometime around three o'clock or so so expect that in your audio feeds in the afternoon we'll talk PGA and NBA with Brandon on Wednesday if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fanduel Podcast Network at Fanduel Podcast and don't forget to subscribe to the show or subscribe to the Fanduel YouTube page we'll talk to you all once again tomorrow to get to you said for Thursday's first round of the NFL draft this has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network