 Cyber Conflict Module 3, The Hacked World Order Once you have completed the readings, lecture, activity, and assessment, you will be able to articulate why June 2012 to June 2013 is considered year zero in the battle over cyberspace. Two reasons that Thomas Ridd believes that cyber war will not take place. Welcome to Cyber Conflict Module 3. In this module, we will see how a computer worm marked a turning point in the history of warfare. You likely remember from history classes the extraordinary event of August 1945 when the United States dropped an atomic bomb on the city of Hiroshima, Japan. Never before had an atomic weapon been used in war, and the effects were devastating with an explosive yield of nearly 15,000 tons of TNT, tens of thousands of instantaneous deaths, and more than 70% of the city's buildings destroyed. By the end of 1945, more than 140,000 Japanese citizens had died from injuries and radiation after effects. The enormous power of nuclear weapons technology had changed the conduct of warfare forever. For many military theorists, the year 2009 marked a similar turning point in the history of warfare. In that year, the computer worm Stuxnet was released and used to disrupt uranium centrifuges at the nuclear facility in Etan's Iran. The capabilities of Stuxnet were almost magical. The worm was able to target a type of Siemens manufactured industrial control system in the use in Etan's. Once inside the system, the Stuxnet worm then modified the speeds of the uranium centrifuges to an improper level, while sending signals to the Iranian controllers that everything was working normally. Eventually, the modified speeds caused many centrifuges to explode. The engineering of Stuxnet was extremely complicated and expertly done, especially when we consider that Stuxnet is really nothing more than a string of ones and zeros in computer code. And, as stated, for many it marked the beginning of a new tide in warfare, with former CIA Director General Michael Hayden noting, somebody just used a new type of weapon, and this weapon cannot be put back in the box. In the last lecture, we discussed how net-centric warfare that the United States employed during the First Gulf War surprised Russia and China and motivated them to begin upgrading their own militaries with advanced information technologies. Stuxnet had a similar effect with Russia, China, and other countries as well. Iran, who had been on the receiving end of Stuxnet, initiated its own cyber research programs, subsequently launching a series of cyber attacks against several U.S. and other Western companies. In 2012, Iran launched an even more sophisticated cyber attack against the Saudi Arabian oil company Aramco, destroying nearly 30,000 computers. The 2012 attack may have been assisted with malware that was reverse engineered from the Stuxnet worm. This possibility of reverse engineering adds yet another critical layer to the strategy of when to use such sophisticated weapons. The use of nuclear weapons changed the way that military strategists war gained, culminating in deterrence doctrines like mutually assured destruction. The use of cyber weapons has forced strategists to go back to the drawing board to develop similar types of deterrence theories. We are still in the beginning stages of producing viable cyber deterrence doctrines, but some interesting theories about cyber weapon use are beginning to be articulated. One example is a reading you will complete in this module. Thomas Ridd's Cyber War will not take place. Essentially, Ridd argues that the effects of cyber weapons are too indirect and insufficiently violent to be defined as acts of war. Additionally, he states that most cyber weapons fall into the categories of sabotage, espionage, and subversion. You will soon be introduced to theorists who disagree with Ridd, but his argument is compelling and reinforces that we are in fact dealing with a whole new paradigm of warfare. Quiz question one. True or false? June 2012 through June 2013 is considered year zero in the battle over cyberspace because nation states in that year reasserted their control over data and information in search of power. The answer is true. Quiz question two. Which of the following supports Thomas Ridd's argument that cyber war will not take place? A. Cyber weapons will likely not be fully integrated into U.S. military operations. B. Cyber weapons will likely never become very destructive. C. The potential violence resulting from cyber weapons is too indirect to have much effect. D. The potential violence resulting from cyber weapons is too dangerous to ever be used. Answer C is correct. The potential violence resulting from cyber weapons is too indirect to have much effect. The activity for this module asks that you reflect on the concept of cyber war with the following questions. What would constitute a cyber war in your opinion? Must a cyber war be accompanied by destructive violence? Do degrees of cyber war exist? Do you agree with Thomas Ridd's argument that the violence unleashed by cyber attacks is too indirect to constitute a cyber war?