 There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with a trading mentor today, completely free of charge. Alright, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. It was a pretty good week in the stock market. It definitely closed out strong on Friday, opened up with a little bit of weakness Monday and Tuesday. It was kind of expected, breath was starting to pull back, topped out a little bit. But after Friday's OPEX last week, very strong close, now the spies at all-time highs, QQQ at all-time highs, semis and chips just absolutely killing it. Absolutely carrying a lot of the large caps and closing a new 52 week highs just showing overall strength in the whole sector. In our list last week was pretty good. I would say about three of them paid out of the four, or at least paid in some form. We had Dollar General had a good first two days. We had Amazon Puts that fell down for a couple days as well. That did pretty good. I would say the only one that didn't do that great was XLE. Energy did not have a good week at all. I would say the energy sector was one of the heaviest pullbacks in terms of the whole market and it did bust through demand and it just overall wasn't able to reverse. Unfortunately, that one didn't play out, but not all of them are going to play out. So and for this week's data, we do have some pretty good sets coming in here. We got Monday. It's going to be US leading economic indicators. I don't think this is really going to move the market at all. And then Tuesday, there's going to be nothing scheduled. Wednesday is arguably going to be one of the biggest. It's going to be the S&P Flash US Services PMI and also manufacturing PMI as well. It's going to come out 15 minutes after the bell. Pay attention to that on Wednesday. And on Thursday, we do have a GDP reading coming in at 830 in the morning. And another one you'll want to pay attention to is going to be new home sales at 10 a.m. about 30 minutes after the bell. And then Friday, January 26th, the big one is going to be personal income, personal spending and most importantly, the PCE index, also core PCE and PCE year over year. So this is going to be the big one. And this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge compared to CPI or anything else. They like the PCE. So we will want to see that continued trend down in inflation. It's really as simple as that. As long as we keep seeing that trend lower, market's going to be pretty confident. Friday, we actually had consumer sentiment and inflation expectations actually lowered a little bit and the market really liked that. So I feel like that's just going to keep being the sentiment as long as it's reaching the Fed's goals of 2% pretty straightforward in terms of where we want to see it. So hopefully we'll see that trend continue lower and we'll keep seeing rate cut expectations also go back higher as long as the trend for inflation continues lower. And on to the seasonality for this week, the website actually finally loaded. Last week, we only had a screenshot. This week, we actually have the trading week up here and we can look at the 10, the 15 and the 20 year data set for this seasonality period. So for the 10 year data set, we are looking at 50% winning trades in these back test results. You can see it's actually kind of choppy for this week. There's a small little pullback and then it just basically comes right back up to the same point it started at. Historically, if we raise this up to 15 years, it actually gets a little bit more bullish and you can see there's a little upthrust here going up into the 26th. The winning trade bumps up to 67% with a summarized profit of 2%. And then if we go up to 20 years, it actually gets a little bit more bullish and you can see the upthrust is actually a little bit bigger and we got winning trades bumping up to 70% and summarized profit bumping up to 6%. So the 15 and the 20 year cycle looks pretty good, 10 year looks a little bit more choppy and that's in a little bit more recent years, but once you start adding more years on, you can see that this week is actually pretty bullish in terms of seasonality. So we'll see if it follows that and then you can see towards the end of the month here is when we kind of do get a small pullback, but that sets us up for a big upthrust into February and that pretty much lasts all the way up into the midpoint of the month. And then we get a really, really big pullback historically. So that's for the seasonality this week. Nothing crazy. Last week was kind of averaging a pullback and we did follow that the first two days. We actually went beyond the average move. The average move was actually only like negative half a percent. We definitely cleared negative 1% or so the first two days of the week. And then we just had a big, big rally. So we kind of didn't do the opposite of seasonality towards the end of the week, but the beginning of the week, we did follow that pattern going lower. And I think people just saw that as an opportunity to buy. And on to the setups for this week, I do have three. It's really hard to find setups this week. I mean, lots of things are kind of overbought and you guys know me. I like to find discounts in the market, something that has dipped or that is looking to continue the trend, but is not too expensive and is not just like breaking highs and stuff like that. Because it's easier to get rug pulled when you're buying 52 week high breakouts. So for this week, I found a firm to start out here. It's pretty straightforward. It's got a pretty good base here in the 40s. You can see that 41-44 is a base right here. And I went ahead and added a screen cursor so you can see it a little bit better. So we got our base at the 41s, our base at the 40s, 60s. And then there's another recent base here at 39-45. Probably just call it 39-50, just a little short term one. But overall, this whole 40 areas kind of a strong base. And you can see that it actually held up, reclaimed. And we also have this breakout here. We got a test one, a test two, a test three rejection and now a breakout. So ideally, we will want to see continuation on this. Obviously, it probably just make its way up to this little area right here. It's probably going to be about 46. If we had the exact point, it's going to be 45-98 as this exact peak right here, short term, where it rejected. So we can probably look for that as a price target. For the moving averages, it will need to get over this little cluster. You got your nine, your 21, and your 50, kind of all meeting in the same general area here. So we will need to see that. I can even get rid of this real quick while I hide the drawings. So this is the moving average clusters. We will need to break over this little 21 right here. This is the 21, the nine, and then your medium term is your 50, which is right here. And that's the thicker one. So your nine and 21 is the thinner, thicker is going to be your 50. Here's your 200 down here. So we'll need to get over this cluster. If we can get over that cluster, we can see that move back up to 46. And that's being a little bit conservative. Obviously, it could make its way back up to the 52 week high point, which is at 52.48 over here. That's this little point up here. But you want to be conservative. This is obviously a short term trade. A firm has really run a lot already, and this is kind of the initial pullback or profit taking point after so much upside. So you do want to be careful now that it's already pretty extended and just kind of go for shorter term PTs and don't expect too much. If you're going to go for the long game and you expect 52 week highs to break out, you want to trade back up to 52 week highs. You definitely want to buy a lot more time on expiration, probably like March minimum to deal with drawdown risk, volatility. You're going to want to buy time on those to deal with that. So that's for a firm straightforward breakout. Nothing too special here. It needs to get over the move your average clusters as well. And that can take you back up to 46. And another good thing about a firm here, we do have this KDJ going positive on the four hour. I forgot to mention this is the four hour chart. So this is not your one day nine and 21 email combo. This is your four hour. Here's your one day moving averages. Pretty similar. This is your moving average cluster that it needs to get over. Very similar. Just a little bit different. Just needs to get over that nine and 21 email combo. And you have your 50 on the one day still holding and positive. That's a really good sign. So we're actually not below the 50 on the most important one, which is the one day. One day and one week are always the most important. And then at the same time, you still do the KDJ crossing up on the four hour and the one day that we're looking at right now. So KDJ is going positive on the escalator. Good sign. And onto number two here. This is coin, which is actually pulled back a lot more compared to Bitcoin or really any crypto asset. Might have pulled back similar to the alt coins, which are much more volatile, but Bitcoin has not had this big of a pullback. Or drawdown since the ETFs were approved and started trading. Even the ETF said pullback a lot more than actual crypto, which is crazy because it's a spot Bitcoin ETF. I saw a post on Twitter saying it declined 16%. Well, Bitcoin only declined 8%. So almost double what the actual spot asset. And then you have Mara and Raya, which are also more popular crypto names in the stock market. Those also pullback very, very heavy. And naturally they are very volatile. And they're just going to follow crypto, but they've actually pulled back much more and are much more oversold. So that kind of caught my attention. One thing I like about Coinbase here, we have a rally base rally demand zone. You can see it actually wicked and bounced off the bottom of that demand zone very accurately. Look right here on the 15 minute perfectly. And that's right off the bottom of your base candle, which is this candle right here. So a rally base right here. Really, really nice zone. I actually tried to bounce right here, but failed. Went into it, pulled into the bottom and still confirmed a hole. So this demand zone is still valid. It's still a rally base rally demand zone until it starts closing under it that will kind of invalidate the thesis. So this is pretty straightforward. I'm looking for a bounce in Coin. And there's actually a level you can shoot for right here. There's two of them overall. So you got 144 right here, which is pretty good. 144 right here, which is this little base right here and a base right here. Also tried to bounce right there. And then you have 161s, which actually like triple topped here. You can see there's a rejection, a rejection and a rejection. And it confirmed once it broke this 144s and that continued lower into demand. So these are your kind of two upside targets for right now. If you want to go for more short term levels, you're going to have to go to the one hour. You could probably go to this was that 137s. That's also kind of a double top area. So you can watch that one as well. But in terms of one day levels, these are probably the most important. This 144 and 161s. So hopefully coin could retrace back up there. Obviously crypto and Bitcoin will probably have to catch a bid. Maybe even some all coins as well. But coin definitely follows Bitcoin the best. So hopefully we're going to see a little bit of a rebound in this. Obviously I would probably look for more short terms or day trades on this, but these 144 and 161s, these two levels are probably good swing trade targets. If you were to buy time and deal with any drawdown risk, buying time is always the best. You hear me say it over and over. These are pretty good targets to kind of shoot for on the medium term. And then for the short term, if you're kind of going off day trade or something, you're probably going to want to go with that 137s or that one hour level that we were looking at. It's going to be right here at the 13620s or 137 area. So that's for coin. Looking for a bounce or rebounce to the upside. I like this little one day candle. It's kind of like a hammer pushing up, trying to reverse. Obviously it will need to stay over Friday's high point and overall will need to stay over the demand zone low, which it bounced off prior. So as long as that's holding, this thesis is still pretty good. And then invalidation is pretty straightforward. If it busts under demand, that will kind of be your sign to look at something else and also kind of go risk off for coin. Another way you can use price targets or kind of look for something to top. You can use your one day moving averages. Here's your 50. This is your nine and 21 combo. If it gets up to the 50, that kind of meets with that 136 is we're just looking at. It's just a little bit shy at about 13440s or 135 or so. So you look for that one day 50 to get touched as a short-term price target and your more medium terms can be the nine and 21 combo. Because if it pulls up into the nine and 21s, even the 50, it can all act as resistance. As you see here, this is a big rejection candle off the 50. So use your one day moving averages. They hold a lot more weight than you would think. Higher time frames kind of always pull more merit over really anything else. And that's why the one day moving averages work so good. I mean, look at this one day nine EMA train. It's ridiculous and it's perfect. Every time it tests the nine, it just bounces higher. Tests it again right here. Nice consolidation off of it goes higher. Another test here. So your one day moving averages are just amazing and definitely pay attention to them and take advantage of it. So that's for coin. Thank you for your bounce. Use your short-term MAs. Also your more medium term price targets 144s and 161s overall. And last but not least for our individual tickers, we're looking at SE here, which has kind of been getting crushed with China names or really Asia in general, which has kind of been struggling. But this name has actually had a really strong bounce or support here at 35s or, you know, this general 36 is the area as well. And when you get a bounce here, you get a bounce here, a short-term bounce here, nice base and structures over here, another bounce, bounce. So just over and over this level has proved to be pretty strong. Obviously, people keep coming in to scoop it at this level. So naturally I'm going to look for, you know, a short-term rebalance. Now that we're kind of getting some confirmation of a reversal or some type of bid here at the same zone. And you can probably just shoot for this little structure before it went to shit. It's going to be like 39 or so. And then overall the 40 level, which is a rejection zone here or rejection zone here. It's support here. It's support here. Rejection zone right here. Rejection zone right here. So you got 40 as a very strong kind of balance point between support and resistance in the past. So you definitely want to watch that. And as well as a recent rejection area at the 39.05, which we just marked in this yellow. So watch your red 40 flat area. That's already marked. You got multiple areas of confluence. And then you also have the recent 39s where this strong rejection candle came from and it pulled into demand again. So watch those two levels. And as well as you kind of got your one day nine and 21 EMA combo here. It's been rejecting off of that. It kind of went back under the 50 here and got weak as well. So here's your 50, your 21 and your nine. Watch those as well. Those can act as resistance really in any scenario. And it will need to reclaim back over that in order to see some serious upside and see the trend go back in order. Similar to what you see here. Once it reclaimed your nine and 21s, you can see it started going higher. It pulled into the nine and 21s. Acted as a higher low or base. Went higher again. Tried to act as it right here again, a higher low or base. And then once it broke below, got weak for a little bit. And once it got back over velocity, pulled back in, bounce, repeat over and over. And then you can see once it got under your nine and 21 EMA combos here, lots of rejections, lots of weakness, lots of foolery. So that's why you want to watch your one day EMAs. So definitely watch them here. Just be cautious. But overall, I feel like now that we've kind of made multi-bottom support here, I feel like it could overpower the EMAs and we could get back up to 39 and 40, at least on the short term. So definitely watch that. All right. Not to the indexes. So last week on spy, we had looked at that breath indicator that we go over next and we kind of assumed that breath got a little bit weaker. And we could see a little short term pullback, along with the seasonality, was kind of pointing at some type of pullback. And we did get that the first two days. We had one day where it closed down close to half a percent. And then the next day actually went below as negative 1%, but actually closed down only about 0.56%. So it really wasn't awful. As well as you had confirmation of your one day 21 EMA holding right here. So this bar closed back above it, even though it went under. And that kind of set us up for an impulse move higher. And that's why you always want to use your one day moving averages. If you're going too short above them, you sell once it gets into them and you wait for confirmation of a close below the 21 or close below the 9 before trying to aim for the next level. And that's what I was explaining last week. You always want to use your one day 9 and 21 EMA combo for price targets if you're going too short above. And this has just proved my point again. Once we pulled into that 21, and we closed back over it, a really big impulse move higher. So your 9 and 21 EMAs can always act as higher lows or some kind of base to go higher. As it proved right here, as it proved right here, as it proved right here, and as it proved right here. You just got to watch those one day EMAs. Don't sleep on them. They give you very good structure and they give you very good ideas of the trend as simple as they are. So for this week, I mean it's pretty straightforward. We broke over a new all-time high. We have a really big impulse candle here. Also broke over that new 52 week high that we made over here and right here, which is at the 477s. And we closed over 480. So I really can't be embarrassed again until it starts closing back under 480. It starts closing back under 480 once or twice, maybe multiple times. That kind of signals a potential reversal to go back to the 470s. Last week, we were focused on the 470s as the best dip by zone. And the week prior to that, the 470s was also mentioned as probably the best dip by zone for this structure. So we pulled into 470s again last week. Really nice bounce. Pulled into 470s. Lower 468s. The week prior bounced really good. 470s is a good bounce over here. And that's all that we established. I mean it's pretty simple that 470 or some type of structure hold area. So for right now, you're probably just going to want to stick to day trades. Obviously, I definitely wouldn't want to just leg into a swing trade here. Now that we're at all-time highs, you want to wait for some type of dip to add to an overnight hold position for the indexes or for a spy. Adding at higher lows or adding on dips is always the best for swing trades because you're getting that discount and premium and as well as your drawdown risk goes down a little bit if you're buying at the right spots such as demand, such as one day 9 to 21 EMA. Really any one day EMA that's trending over, price is trending over if you buy once it gets there. It's always a better premium and a little bit cheaper than if you were to buy at all-time highs or buy on an impulse move like this. And obviously we can still continue. I'm not saying that swing traders buying up here are just going to get screwed. That's not true at all. It can keep going. I mean it could go higher, consolidate for a little bit, not even go back down for a little bit to give that discount, but you just got to be careful up here. I mean the best discount areas are always going to be at the one day EMAs or demand, like I said. So definitely watch, you know, a spy for day trades maybe. Obviously if it gives a little dip it's still remaining bullish. You're still trending over your one day 9 and 21 EMA combo. You got a fresh all-time high, fresh 52 week high. So but just be careful for swing trades. I mean overnight just looks a little bit pricey up here. I mean I definitely like better spots, honestly. And one thing I will want to see is that breadth indicator that we've been going over. I want to see that catch back up to the indexes. And we kind of have seen that little divergence between the indexes and the indicator. Stocks above their 50 day moving average have dropped lower and have not been trending back up with the indexes. And it's just kind of interesting and it kind of makes me think that it's really just large caps that are kind of carrying the index right now and kind of the top weighted market cap names compared to, you know, the bottom half. And that's kind of what signaled that weakness last week too, right? I mean we had breadth going lower while the spy was kind of holding up and hadn't caught back up to breadth yet. And we did get that catch up in the first two days last week. So that's for the spy. Just be careful. Your levels of focus, 49.98. Just mark 480, honestly. And as well as 478 or 477.50s as well. That's your resistance right here. And then your all-time high resistance. And then you guys know that my favorite area to buy right now is just the 470s. That's what we were looking at the last two weeks. The 470s is being, you know, the best area to add for discounts. Now maybe if we can pull back into 480, that could also be a good base. You can make a base and try to go higher, but we got to see that first and kind of see how it reacts. Once it pulls back into 480, is it going to keep closing over 480? Or is it just going to flush back under and kind of fake everybody out after a huge pump? So that's for the spy. Just watch that 480 level, of course. But otherwise, I really don't have any price targets for you. There's nothing here. We're at all-time highs. You might have to start measuring out some Fibonacci extensions. You know, go to the previous all-time high. Go all the way down to October 2022 lows. You know, the most recent 52-week lows and, you know, kind of do a measurement there and it'll give you extensions going higher. And next, we'll go over the breath indicator. And this is the S&P stocks about their 50-day moving average. Here was last Friday's close. And we noticed it started closing under the 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combo last Friday. And that's kind of why it started hinting that breath was starting to come down a little bit. And we really saw that on Tuesday even more and then even gapped down on Wednesday. So this was the first two days of the trading week and what kind of led to the weakness. You had breath collapsing as well as the index is pulled back as well. And now you kind of have breath stalling out here. You do have a little bit of a sign of some life here from the last two days. But it really didn't go back up as much as the S&P. Like when you have breath trending higher here, you have the indicator plus the index. But right now we have this lagging a little bit behind the indexes. And we do see that divergence between this and the S&P. So we will want to see for continued upside in my opinion or for really good strength in the market keep seeing breath trend back higher. Obviously it doesn't have to get all the way back to this point or anything. I would like to see that, but I mean the market can still go as long as breath keeps going up a little bit more. I would say that the spot could keep going up a little bit more as well. But we are still trending under this 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combo. And it also closed under the 50 EMA as well. And you can see this indicator actually follows the moving averages pretty well. Made support off the 200 right here. These dots made support off the 9. Rejected the 50 right here. You have good evidence of the 9 and 21 rejecting back here. So I mean it follows these EMAs pretty good. Even nice melt up off the 9 right here and then continued trend lower once it got under. So definitely use these 1-day EMAs. It's kind of your trend gauge. Right now we are trending under both. And we also have a 9 crossing over the 21 right here as indicated in this yellow cross. That means that the 9 crossed down over to the 21. So kind of a little bearish tilt I guess. But overall I mean it's holding back up and trying to follow the market. We just haven't seen crazy evidence of that yet. So I will need to start getting back over the 9 and 21 eventually. And if it comes back up to that point where it topped out prior you can probably start looking for a pullback again but it will need to get probably all the way back up here for breath to kind of stall out again. I mean it could stall out down here as well but this little area where you have that tops has been a really good area to see market pullback as well as breath pullback. You got a top here, top here, top here and a top here. That's where I get that from just using levels and then these EMAs as well because this is an indicator it's not a tradable security or anything but it does follow it pretty good. So that's the conclusion you just got breath kind of still trending lower a little bit with two days of signs of life we'll need to start seeing it go higher to follow the S&P and if we start seeing it go higher that's pretty healthy. I feel like the market could go higher as long as breath kind of goes back up you have the majority of stocks kind of moving in tandem with the index and on to the QQQ so also broken new for the two week high you had a pullback into your 9 and 21 EMA combo right here once it pulled in was really able to get a huge impulse move likely because of semis obviously the best dip buy area probably would have been back at 3.95 that's a really good discount area like we had a couple weeks ago but it really only gave you a chance at the 9 and 21 just like spy did so your 9 and 21 EMA combo I mean keep using it it's a really good gauge and it's a really good area to keep buying dips and just keep repeating the same pattern it does and you got a higher low here really big bounce higher low here small bounce you kind of had a couple days breaking under it but once you're reclaiming back over your 9 and 21 right here you still had that trend continuing pullback right here continued higher so your 9 and 21 combo say over and over keep using it on the one day use your one day MAs they're a great gauge so now we got a breaking a new all-time high also a new 52 week high at 412.92 so that's kind of your only level you can go off of right now maybe you could draw some short-term Fibonacci levels so we have this high down to this low that will bring you up to 423 for the 1.618 extension you can watch that as a potential price target short-term and then overall that 2% or 200% up here is at 430s that's really all you can go off of because you have no trading up here it's uncharitable territory you got no trading no supply and demand up here yet and you kind of just have to go off the fib levels so it's a really tough area obviously for spy and QQQ you don't want to just jump in and chase the FOMO or anything definitely wait for a dip maybe on the QQQ I feel like the spy is not as overbought as you know semis and tech right now but it is breaking an all-time high as well so got to be careful up here on both obviously I really don't like the setups that much you know your setup was at this higher low off the 9 of 21 tests and it already happened so right now you just be trading a breakout or continuation and I feel like it might need to consolidate here or have some type of small pullback before you know legging in higher it might go for one more day couple more days but eventually it will need to kind of slow down a little bit people will catch back up sell a little bit take profit it'll try to make a higher low and then try to go higher and you just kind of keep you know repeating that structure over and over so definitely be careful up here guys I really don't have a setup for you this week or anything you know your 9 of 21 tests already happened last week you know even the setups last week I mean they really didn't look that good and that's why we got that one or two-day pullback the first two days of the week we needed to pull into the MAs or some type of discount structure because we were just chilling up here at this local resistance and then once QQQ got this close over you know that 413 or 412 area I was able to get that big impulse move the next day as well slightly over close I mean it was very close but it did close over and also cleared that 52-week high right here according to this week it was very strong almost have an inverse head and shoulders here as well I mean you got a shoulder, neck, head shoulder, shoulder, breakout pretty nice almost like a cup and handle too I mean you got the cup, handle, breakout so it was a really nice setup I mean the higher low was nice just a really nice follow through obviously you know it's tough to buy once it gets to resistance but overall it was able to break out just be really careful up here now it's already broken out already all-time highs wait for some consolidation wait for a pullback that you can you know buy at a higher low something like this something like this you know something that's a little bit more discounted that you can trade back up to a resistance point like this and that's how I go about it pretty much every time I'm not a big breakout trader anymore obviously if the pattern is good if it's like an inverse head and shoulders a cup and handle something like this I'll trade it occasionally on the one day but it has to look really good and I'm still very cautious so just be careful maybe these individual setups we're looking at a little bit more discounted for the firm breaking out coin you know has the potential to reverse off the demand zone low SE also at a demand zone multi-bottom support so definitely watch these be a little bit more careful with the indexes it'll probably need some type of intraday dip if it opens above Friday's high and keeps staying over that you know that'll probably incentivize people to keep buying but just gotta be careful guys that's the video hope you guys enjoyed make sure you like comment and subscribe to our Xtrees YouTube channel sorry that the indexes don't really give as clear cut of a pattern here as last week just breaking out like I said gotta be careful there's always a better area to buy usually so just gotta be a little bit more skeptical there will definitely be opportunities in the future on the indexes but definitely watch these individual names I love you guys I'm gonna go ahead get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff so I love you guys and I'm out