 Hi, my name's Leon Roeb currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical Analysis if you're new or more welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and please don't forget to like subscribe and Share this video and the my videos on YouTube With your fellow trading colleagues as it helps support the channel and gets the quality content out To those that need it as well as you know boost the the rankings on YouTube. So Trading 180 process If you're new is just basically applying fundamental and technical analysis to establish our directional bias and then applying our Technical analysis strategy supply and demand strategies to time trade entries risk management and establish profit targets We use the best of both Fundamental and technical analysis to really kind of make the best trading decisions. This is not one versus the other. This is using You know combined fundamentals and technicals To really get the results that we're achieving. So moving on to this week's week ahead and Trading economics if you go there trading economics comma great website So in the week ahead the US stocks will try to regain some footing after closing in the negative territory That's the stocks investors looking at signs that inflation pressures are easing. So that's that's a big thing, right? So inflation pressures and we'll get into that bit later Also inflation rate figures for may will take a spotlight alongside external trade data and consumer confidence also markets will closely follow central bank meetings in the euro area Australia and China CPI and services PM eyes so Just I guess I'll read out some of the some of the paragraphs So in the US economic Canada is relatively light with the CPI reports So all eyes are going to be on that because ultimately the central banks want the inflation to come down If the inflation keeps rising Then it creates a headache an economic headache as Well as just an inflation threat, right? when it comes to I guess the Central bank not meeting their 2% target So you've got trade balance exports Imports and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment taking spotlights. So trade balance is also something that you should Keep an eye on as it is a reflection or can be a reflection on GDP gross domestic product Elsewhere in America. We've got It will be interesting to follow unemployment figures for Canada trade data For Canada and Brazil inflation rates for those countries. So yeah, definitely unemployment and Trade data in Europe. The ECB will be deciding a monetary policy with markets expecting the conclusion of the largest sorry large-scale asset purchases and confirmation of Rate hike in July again money markets have now fully priced in the 25 basis points interest rate hike at the July meeting We've around 124 basis points of tightening price by the end of the year to tame Record inflation rights the central banks are forced to hike rates Going on moving on to the Reserve Bank of Australia So monetary policy front Reserve Bank of Australia are seen raising the official cash rate by 25 basis points for a second straight meeting And there is a Bank of India, which we don't really trade the Indian. Is it the rupee? And in China have got their external trade data, which is always Worth I guess looking out for simply because of the global growth situation and in Japan All eyes are on final GDP growth estimates for quarter one Which is just gonna be I think them the the the main data has already come out The number is already known and been priced in so I don't think that's gonna be Really as important or a market mover unless the members are you know way off? but let's get into some of the the charts and Some more fundamental analysis so starting off on the dollar index and dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength. Oh What's happened here, so I've gone back All right All right, so yeah dollar index and really understanding our fundamental bias is key to Understanding, you know which way we'll be buying over the medium to long term right in the short term generally It's very difficult to trade Because markets move as a result of liquidity right liquidity hunting but but the The big money eventually reveal their hand over the medium to long term and you'll see prices, you know You know make their way higher, right? So if you've been watching my videos for any length of time, you've pretty much Never heard me say that I'm gonna go short on the pound. I'm sorry and pound on the dollar You've never heard me say I'm gonna go short on the on on the dollar this year Go back through all my Sunday videos and any trading videos that I've made I've always pretty much been a buyer of the dollar and you can see where the trend has been and this isn't you know The rocket science is just if you understand what drives the market then you can see, you know, what is likely to happen Yeah To the markets right we've had a bit of a pullback obviously, but does that mean the trend is over or of course not? So my bias again is still to buy the dollar not necessarily against every single currency But against the the weakest currencies and the most devalued or depreciating currencies And so we did have some positive news which confirms Our you know buying bias or my buying bias because this isn't fundamental. This isn't Financial advice, but tight US jobs market will keep the 50 basis points hike Hikes coming so the US economy added more jobs than expected in May But with nearly two job vacancies available for every unemployed American the numbers would be even stronger if there was a better Supply of quality labor. This is both a constraint on growth while contributing to ongoing elevated Inflation via higher wages 50 base point hikes Remain at the default for June and July so the central bank is still looking to appreciate their currency now Will it appreciate is a guarantee that it will appreciate of course not because there are other factors Such as other central banks looking to Strengthen their currency, right? So just because you know the dollar is is hiking doesn't mean that, you know, we're gonna go to the moon Right, it's all about you know understanding divergences And in fact within the next probably few months, I'm probably maybe switching my bias to a more neutral Bias on the dollar and maybe start to take some sell trades on the dollar against them some various currencies But ultimately for now, I'm still a buyer of the dollar So just looking for any pullbacks not necessarily on the dollar index, but if prices do pull back down into Any demand zones and then start to look like they're moving higher that can use that as confluence on other currencies Such as maybe the dollar yen or maybe the dollar Swiss To look for some buy trades, right? So my bias is definitely still to buy the dollar. Do I know that it's gonna go up this week? No, nobody knows and if it does go down That's fine because then it just offers an opportunity to buy the dollar for cheaper because nothing fundamentally Has changed right if you understand that, you know, the market thinks that you know 50 base point hikes remain the default for June and July then Ultimately if prices do come down, right, you know, at least, you know For this month then June and July we should see, you know, a bit of upside So it's just the market really looking to buy for cheap As prices come down, which is basically what I'm doing Then you've got a lot more upside potential, right? What's the point in buying up here when you know that this is an expensive area if you can buy down here And you've got a lot more upside potential, right? That's pretty much how you know, it works in the In the long term is understanding good risk reward and also Location of where you are and where the bargains are, right? So my bias is to the upside if you do want to be a seller of the dollar then there is Supply zone There for your for your compliments moving on to the dollar yen And the dollar yen this was a nice profitable trade For me I got involved in this actually down at the one two six nineties This was a stop hunt which basically goes beyond really this the scope of this video I don't really talk about stop hunts and how to trade stop hunts. That's you know Part of the private members group and in fact, I guess just to kind of show you guys and remind you guys really about the The actual mentoring which is going to be open tomorrow if you're watching this on a Sunday the 6th to the 10th of June I'm going to be doing an intake of of those of you who want to join and really showing you the complete and ultimate I guess course when it comes to fundamental analysis and technical analysis And you'll learn you'll get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet which ranks currencies according to strength and weakness, but not only that you'll understand You know risk on and risk off as a scale. You'll also understand the currency value cycle and why You know currencies that are typically or maybe strong or ranked one two and three Likely to continue appreciating or devaluing and why for example currencies that are ranked six sevens and eights on a Fundamental spreadsheet may continue to devalue or actually is it you know a bargain because not every single currency can stay strong forever Right and not every single currency is going to devalue forever. So You know a lot of the YouTube videos I've been releasing lately. So for example that Forex, you know Supply and demand smart money stuff that I've been doing just to kind of catch your attention And I think I make the point that you know, how can you be really talking about smart money? If you don't talk about fundamental analysis because smart money Literally make their buying and selling decisions in the medium to long term based off of fundamental analysis, right? and risk sentiment and These are you know, really kind of short clips 12 minute 15 minute Videos from live sessions that we have and that I have on a Wednesday with traders and also as well Those traders have done some interviews for me Really going over their results as well as you know, their experience with trading 180. So again, if you do want to Join trading 180. There's a video there. You can watch exactly what it's all about and Again, my enrollment will start from the 6th and end on the 10th of June so going back to really be The dollar yen and also as well just just kind of show you as well some of the stuff that you're getting some of the trading videos this was a trading video from the 30th of May and Where I actually talk to the guys in the room about the trade setup So here it was it was the dollar yen stop hunt set up and I If you can hear it Then I'll show you that I was actually in this trade expensive But where we are now Is interesting because I think that this was part of a Stop hunt. So I'm actually in this trade. You look at that level there And then you see prices coming anyway, it's not getting into the strategy, but um, but yeah, so that was the dollar yen On the daily understanding that that was a stop hunt and Again, I was in that trade which was very profitable which ended up, you know here in targets You know above that was about three three hundred or so pips on on a trade And entered into three positions. So again, it was understanding the Bias that we had on buying the dollar and really kind of selling the yen and understanding that this ended up being a bargain Right bargain price and there are bargains beyond, you know supplying demand zones such as stop hunts. So with that being said It's been a great week really a really good week a lot of my trades ended up working out and so Where are we now? So? Right now. This is obviously this price is seen as a bargain My bias is to the the upside But where are we are now in an expensive area? And so there is the opportunity to look for pullbacks, but I don't really like that I'd really rather prices come down to the one two seven again if you are looking for sell trades Now would be a great time or great technically. Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily say that's a great fundamental trade But again, there are reasons to buy that the yen Potentially the central bank may be starting to or maybe but they probably are looking to try to cap the valuation of the the Japanese yen so and try and intervene in the markets because of you know rising inflation so with that being said This may be an opportunity to sell But so my again my bias would be more to the upside and look for buy trades So I'm out of that trade and I might have to wait a few weeks or maybe a month or two to get back in Who knows but the the opportunity for me until prices prove that there's higher highs there And there may be a pullback into that zone then I would look for potential You know buy trade around at 130 if it does maybe start to reach the one three Threes or just just above that right? So, yeah, that's the dollar yen Moving to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss So prices didn't quite come down into a demand zone, which is okay, right? Because none of us and nobody knows whether you know prices will come down into demand zone But there is you know the market has seen that this area here is actually demand right so at the absolute low the 0.954 Area was seen as a bit of demand not strong demand mind you because prices haven't really gone anywhere But there's definitely some buying going on here And again, there was an opportunity to short within that Supply zone again, what you would do is look at higher time frame Zones and then go down into the lower time frames and see if there are you know Shorting opportunities in and around that zone there But my bias really wasn't to the to the short side. It's more to the long side. So For now, I think for now there is a there is a demand zone here, but it's not a strong area of demand Not really too keen on it. I'd rather see prices either come down to this zone it's 95 area before going long or Prices making new highs then pulling back and then looking for, you know, a bit of a demand Zones a proof of demands a proof of value is what I'm really looking for on this currency pair So as it stands nothing really for me But there are opportunities to potentially look for short rates here or long trades if prices do come down into this demand zone and 95 0.9522 area Moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD The Canadian dollar has been strengthening The Canadian dollar ended up hiking rates. We're making lower lows and Again, not really a pair that I'm interested in but I do think that Actually, I don't really have a really a A bias on this either way prices could go higher prices could go lower, right when you've got two central banks are looking to hike rates It's a it's a bit of a difficult trade and so, you know, not every Single pair can be or should be traded, right because you're really looking at for either again Divergencies where you're trading strong versus weak or appreciating currencies versus depreciating currencies or Convergences where you've got a strong currency that's about to get, you know D-valued and a d-value currency that may start to appreciate in value This is, you know, two central banks that are looking to hike rates and are hiking rates aggressively So for me, it's it's a harder trade to predict in the medium term short Definitely in the short term medium to long term So for me, I can't really see where the bargain is aware the market might think there is a bargain So for me, it's not really a trade But if you do want to get involved in this In this in this trade Then I'll probably say now if you're looking to buy the US dollar If you're looking to sell the US dollar and buy the CAD Then those are going to be your two areas to look for this week If not, then you're looking at a short trade up here or maybe even further down In fact, I do think that that zone right there the one two fours might actually be quite decent for a Buy trade technically, of course not necessarily fundamentally. So those are really the areas but nothing really Really a pair that I'm looking at trading. It's not on my list New Zealand dollar US dollar again It's similar thing. I'm not looking to trade this currency pair to central banks looking to hike rates Although there has been opportunities into days to get short on that short on there as well So nothing's really changed other than from a buying perspective when to buy the New Zealand dollar That's okay. You want to sell I guess his levels touched a couple of times So I wouldn't look for that to really hold out probably say technically This is a better level the 0.675 area before getting before getting short If you are looking to buy the New Zealand dollar though again I'd probably say the better area to look for buy trades is going to be from a daily supply and demand zone Perspective is going to be really at the lows the 0.6250 to 0.6 Three area I think is decent for a buy trade again to central banks looking to hike rates Not really my cup of tea when it comes to Buying the these two currencies So pound dollar we did now this has caught my interest in the fact I am in this trade from last week. If you look at what's last week's video I actually say that I'm in this trade last week and this now has been a profitable trade I'm looking for really targets to come down to Because I entered multiple positions. I've got a few positions that I'm looking at Trading and one will be like for example the 50% of the of the range and I'll take you know some other profits off here And then I've got another one down at the at the lows, right? so when you enter into trades or when I enter into trades I enter into multiple positions and Because then it makes really gives you the flexibility to take profit off profits off as you you know as we go, right? so So far so good, you know from the really the highest to the lowest There's about 200 pips there was about 200 pips in that obviously didn't pick off the highs and didn't take off at the lows But just from the price movement and I do expect prices to really kind of continue to go lower on this as well Yes, the central Bank of England Bank of England are hiking but but but but but but they are facing problems So Bank of England UK food prices surging most in a decade Signals more pain ahead So retailers say the cost of fresh food is rising rapidly in the Bank of England governor's warned of apocalyptic Very scary words are consequences for poor So UK consumers are being urged to brace for inflation getting worse before it gets better soaring cost-force retailers to keep raising prices and the bleak warning Came as a in a survey by the British Retail Consortium, which said fresh food prices are now rising at their fastest pace in a decade Why is that important because then people were not looking to spend money on anything else if they're spending money on just You know the basic necessities right food? You know shelter the energy prices, you know and things like that, right? I'm not going maybe I can't go on holiday this year The average person can't go on holiday this year Maybe we used to take one holiday a year now We can't take any because we haven't got any extra income because it's being in up with inflation This is what I guess all countries are struggling with but the UK probably more than most hence the reason why Again, if you've been watching and following along with my videos not just this video and my weekend videos, but just from my overall bias on My intro week I guess videos on My YouTube channel You'll see that I've been You know my bias has been to go short on the pound I've been saying short the pound for a few months now and Yeah, so just waiting for pullbacks, right? So my bias is you know To short the pound this was the opportunity to get short and then now hopefully we can still continue to to go lower as There are other countries that are coping with the inflation and cost of living crisis better the US being one of them So for me, that's really my bias if you do want to get long on this Then there is a quite a wide demand zone. I'm gonna draw it from here. Yeah There is an area there. I would probably say Maybe somewhere around here be about that about that fair value area 50% of that would be a decent area to look for any kind of long trades if you think that obviously the pound is a bargain for me, I don't Obviously you'll be trading against me, right? I'm taking the short position You'll be taking the long position if you're going long then of course anything can happen, right? Prices can go a higher from there There's a there's you know not to say it's gonna go straight down to targets, but For me, I'm more looking at you know hundreds of pips that are down sides not looking at maybe 20 30 pips off of that, you know offer that zone if it bounces up so While there's room for both of us to make money, of course, but sir for me But I think I think the part for these resistance is to the downside. So pound dollar I Am short on that one moving to the euro dollar euro dollar and the euro dollar Is again a bit of a tricky one Although I am long on the dollar my bias now has really kind of changed to be more neutral and the dollar Sorry on it on the euro simply because of the The the the hikes. I think I do have a I guess a short bias on the euro when it comes to certain things. I Guess it's beyond the scope of this video, but I think in the short term the The euro should probably want to go a bit higher how it gets there I don't know whether it's going to go straight up, you know Parabolically, or whether it's going to slow grind up But first of all the rate hike is probably being priced in or has been priced in Already, I do think that there is Scoop scope for it to probably come to the 108 109s. We were confirming this with some bank analysis privately In in our private members group around around this area, but I do think that there is the upside is probably capped And I think it's probably going to be capped somewhere around here So in the short term probably might see prices go higher As the market, you know starts to price in You know rate hikes for the euro and also there's been talk of the euro actually, you know hiking a bit further, right? Hiking a bit more so Eurozone inflation his record is ECB miles of how quickly to hike but also the size of that hike So eurozone inflation accelerated to an all-time high and tend to find a debate at the European central bank About how rapidly to raise rates from record lows. So inflation again Just like everywhere else put in pressure on central banks to high crates, but I think that the The euro does have issues But those issues are kind of being ignored Economically, but I do think that if if the If from a from an economic perspective if GDP doesn't come in or is able to support those hikes Then I do think that the euro would eventually come down but I just think in the short time in the next week or two or up until you know the the The hikes are announced and what the central bank is planning. I probably my bias would be more euro Strength, but limited strength. So with that being said Euro dollar Not for now though, I have a short bias I'm not really looking to take this trade or anything right right this minute until really does kind of settles on What their economy is saying and what the central bank has to do so? Bar trades Probably looking at this zone or maybe just below that the 106 is 105 80s around here If you're looking to sell probably wait for prices to come beyond that 108. So maybe 109s 109 50s towards the top end. I think of this of this price or this supply zone moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and Aussie dollar again, not really a pair. I'm interested in although the Australian dollar has been grinding higher making higher highs and that's really due to again the RBA looking to Hike rates and the market pricing in that rate hike and So this is a decent area to look for short trades, but how far down come prices really go There is I guess I'll draw to this Supply zone. I think I have to pretty draw it around Here because there is actually a demand zone here as well fact, that's hidden demand So you can look for intraday long trades again in and around here if you're looking if you think that the Australian dollar is a bargain at that price me personally If I was looking to buy this it would have to be somewhere around that 70 Point first sorry 0.705 area before looking at getting long as that's more of more fair value if you consider this to be a Bargain or expensive area depending on you know Your bias with your buying the base of the quote currency this could start to look to Auction or what most people would consider range You know go range bound and so in between an expensive in a bargain area You've got fair value. So I think more fair value for me would be a better buying opportunity But either way not really a pair that I'm interested in Price could go either way in a medium to long term, but I do think that when the dollar is a potential sell Which could be happening when I say soon maybe in the next few months or so if the If if there is I guess a global recovery China starts to come out of their lockdowns and gets More of a handle on their COVID then I do think Australian dollar against the US dollar may be a very good buy So I'm keeping my eye out on that fundamentally Dollar Australian dollar US dollar and again, I wanted to get involved in this but just couldn't write Prices just didn't pull back. I was saying is the week before my bias was to the long side Then you can check the records and you can see, you know, pretty much what's happened since then Looking at any pullbacks Unfortunately, it's gonna have to be you know move really back down to that zone there Or if prices do make higher highs and then a pullback into a demand zone I Do think that obviously that this is gonna be this is definitely an expensive area So there is a opportunity to potentially short, but you'd have to really understand why you're buying the You think that the yen is a bargain over the Australian dollar. Of course, we've got risk risk off sentiment potentially happening but I Think they have to be new risk off because everything really risk off is kind of been priced in so for example Price isn't really reacting to The Ukraine and Russia conflict, right that that used to be a thing and now it's not So from that perspective, you know, it's not the price isn't really reacting to that unless there's going to be new developments There's escalations and things like that. It just looks like that the market is more focused on fundamental analysis the Monetary policy side of things and you're seeing that reflected in price, which is basically what? how I've been trading What I've been focused on but um, but yeah, let's see what happens with that Understand that that is an area to potentially look for For sell trades as well technically, but just not if I'm not really a buyer of the Japanese yen For now anyway, there are no there is a nuanced idea that I am exploring but let's see again, it's beyond the scope of this video and Gold and gold is again been really a strange one You would think with all the inflation that's going on in the world that gold would be probably somewhere around its, you know all-time highs but Don't know whether their gold is being suppressed. It does have it does have an opportunity to actually You know go higher especially if the dollar starts to come off the boil and and Really kind of sell off within the next couple of months So but for now, I think with a decent dollar It's gonna be very difficult for gold at the moment. Just seems like money really isn't going into gold Right now, but again typically we should understand that gold should be a buyer So any kind of pullbacks get into a zone. I think that if price is coming down into that 18 100 area, I think that is a very nice buy Probably might be looking for a buyer around here But as if it does no idea whether it will could go higher, of course As gold is a hedge against inflation and but let's see what happens if inflation I guess I would assume the logic would be if inflation starts to come down in the US Then gold should want to you know come down, right? But then you also if that's the case then and the central banks don't necessarily have to hike as much then The dollar should want to fall and then gold could go higher. So it depends on really what the market is really focused on Again, this is these are ideas that I'd be on the scope of this Of this video, this is what I'll be discussing with my private members and again You've only got four days to really kind of join as a reminder So enrollment starts really tomorrow the 6th of June to the 10th And then after that, I would probably be closed till maybe September October as I'd like to keep, you know The groups small and kind of focused. So Yeah, again That brings us to the end of this week's video. Thank you for all the kind comments as well for my videos And I will try and get back to each and every one of your comments guys have a great trading week and Take care speak soon