 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable, and squeezably soft host is once more we go into the breach, dear friends. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. And what do we have? Let's go ahead and update this just to make darn Turton sure. We're off four points on the S&P cashdown 77 on the Dow down 23 on the Nasdaq Russell's off a buck 50 look at crude down a buck gold down 20 silver $14.88 down 36 cents. And of course, we start looking at what I spent a lot of time with, which is the dollar up 20 and we'll call it 24 cents 96 80 doesn't seem like no matter what you call it. Simoleons, green backs, all the different names. Everybody wants a dollar and they want in God we trust stamped on the front of it. Sissy dollars, real American dollars, 3.5 billion shares. As we start to show again, we've been talking about how light the volume spent this week and we've got earnings tomorrow and that may just be a hurry up and wait. I haven't seen a very good signal either to be long or short, although we could get one of those at any minute if we actually got some market movement either up or down. Generally, the thing not to be when the volume comes and gets very light is to be short. The reason why is if there's not a lot of volume and the market starts going up, they can run you out fairly quickly and hence the old chestnut don't be short a quiet market. We're just kind of hanging around at these levels just under the 8000 level on the Nasdaq composite and just under 2890 and we've been playing around there for a few days. The super light volume, we're going to look at a lot of charts that are at make or break. When we get those earnings in the morning, you can start looking at them. Let's see what else we have. Okay, got a lot of stuff going on, but that seemed to be removing the market much. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. You can call me at 877-927-6648 and anything because it's going to be kind of a quiet day, although we are, it won't be one to miss because we are going to be showing lots of stocks at make or break and this will be your primer for what to do probably tomorrow after the earnings and Monday. So it's going to, business is going to pick up. This is just the low before the storm, but I think that's about it. I don't think I have a lot to actually whine about. Of course, Friday, as we said, tomorrow, which is Friday all day long, by the way, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, and of course, then we go to Monday, we got Citigroup and Goldman Sachs and that kind of starts kicking it off. It starts getting really hot and heavy out to the 19th on options expiration, and then the day lose comes starting that Monday after. So it's going to be busy, busy, busy. It's time to make sure that you got all your ducks in a row, got everything working. If you got doctor's appointments and stuff, you know, today's the day because business will pick up. Okay. Anything else going on here? Well, I wanted to get a little history in and we're going to get right into charts in the next second. Then it's all just a little bit of history repeating. It is nothing but history repeating and on this day in 1985, almost exactly two years after joining Apple, John Scully from Pepsi asked Steve Jobs to step down as the head of Macintosh Division at Apple Computer Board Meeting with a backing of the computer's other executives. Jobs is stripped of nearly all responsibilities at Apple, why Jobs retains the title of chairman. He has no authority and eventually leaves Apple, I think in 1987. I remember, right? He didn't have much to do. Winton started a couple of different companies, got involved, of course, in animation and some other stuff. To me, the very interesting parable on this is for other CEOs. I guess we can probably talk about a handful of them. That are revolutionaries, but as soon as their revolution stops, what do they do? Once they evolve and their products evolve from year to year and aren't brand new and that and they actually have to get the books to work out and they have to actually make a company that has cash flow. Steve Jobs knew almost nothing about actually running a business. He was very good at running products. I do kind of feel in the small way and what I was involved with, that was it. I never wanted to be in there looking at the beans, counting them, moving the black ones over here and the white ones over here and the orange ones over there. In fact, Monty Python had a great introduction to the, is it the meaning of life? I think it is. It runs about 18 minutes about accountancy and accountants rating yet another company. It's one of the best short films I think ever. In fact, they were very mad at Terry Gilliam for doing it because he used up a lot of the cash that they were going to use for the rest of the movie. It was supposed to be like a five minute short turn in 18 minutes. It is beautiful and breathtaking in its scope of business and it's takedown of business if you ever get a chance to see that. I want to say, yeah, it's the meaning of life, but it runs like about 20 minutes into the movie and of course, if you watch till the end, you'll get to watch Mr, what was his name? Mr. Periquot. It's the stuff you put on railroad ties. Creosote. Mr. Creosote at the very end who has to eat one more wafer thin chocolate, just wafer thin, sir. I remember that may have grossed me out worse than any other little bit I've ever seen in movies, but that and the human centipede don't don't ever watch that if you ever want to sleep again. That's that's Nazi scary, but that's interesting. Anyway, back in 1985, Steve Jobs got probably the best gift he could ever get. That was being forced out and having to learn to run companies in the 90s before he would return to Apple in 2003 and rise it from the ashes. But that was it. Narcissistic, probably a few other problems out there. And some say, yeah, I want to get it. On this day in 1985, when we come back, charts charts. Did I say charts and more charts? The Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions in order to make the best decision. 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I got somebody that needs something emailed to them and I'm doing a radio show podcast. What do you call this thing that we do? Anyway, we'll get into it here a little bit. Advanced auto parts looks like it's headed back up to the previous high. It's into a spike. That spike is February 19th came in with 3.4 million shares at 178.69. We've got to 180, 34 today. Just 430,000 shares so far though. So again, everybody's trying to get out on the tips of their skis and if there's a surprise a lot of these will be smacked fairly hard. If they go higher probably not much risk to the high side. So I'm kind of a little bearish here in the risk reward. You probably have a 60% chance or 65% chances go higher tomorrow, but that's a little. Maybe they go up 1% where if we have some really bad earnings Friday and Monday they could go down 3 or 4%. So the risk reward actually pretty poor. Axon Enterprises AAXN which is the February 26th high $60 and 30 cents 1.7 million shares getting into it today with 164,000 shares. The volume in light it's virtually nonexistent. Now one of the stocks that actually is making kind of an interesting low out here but hasn't issued a by sign yet is accordia therapeutics. This biotech ACOR is the symbol first found a low on December 21st with two just under 2 million shares at 1286. Pierce that with 1.2 million shares bounced a little bit. This last leg has been one of the ones that you really like came back on light energy for the most part today. You're back under those previous lows with just 320,000 shares so far. So any kind of move and close higher as long as the volume remains light is one of these that you want to keep a close eye on as possible by if you're looking at biotech and by your tech. Autodesk this thing's given a couple symbol of signals that it was going to roll over. It never did it's kind of gone up. They've run it or running it shorts a few times. It's gone above its previous high of March 1st. That was 169.05. It did 3.8 million shares got through it on 1.6 million shares yesterday just 921,000 shares today. As I said, a lot. Okay. Anyway, light, light, light. IAG has been bouncing around this $45 level. The first low on November 6th came with 7.5 million shares. You got mid-fives and mid-sixes in February. Today, you're back above that 45 level to 45.82 with 2.7 million shares versus that 7.5. Like I said, risk reward probably not that good. 48 on the upside and it could actually could get that $40 level, which is a high volume gap down on to February 14th. Alexa, isn't it? Yeah, Alexeon Pharmaceuticals. I think this is a longer term one. Yeah, going back into its high of September 28th, 140.77. That was with 3 million shares. This one's got one of the a few candlesticks out here that's interesting today. And that is kind of a dark cloud cover reversal on this one. Volume 600,000 shares so far compared to the 1 million shares on the upside yesterday. But we don't have a lot of signals. So anything you find is probably of value in this market. Amazon continues to creep with the creepy CEO of Amazon. I forget what I was watching last night. There was a news article on there and it was retreating or it was going through his text mails to his girlfriend. What are these people thinking? I don't know why people think some bizarre stuff like that is sexy. But now every time I see an Amazon package with that nice little thing, I feel a little dirty like maybe I need to get a shower. But that's probably just me. Amazon, four days going sideways. Light volume today, 1.9 million shares. Four days ago, we had 3.7 million shares. So continue to sit on the fence. What else do we have? Apache. It's not only me. I'm glad. So some things you just shouldn't do. You shouldn't read those texts between him and his girlfriend and you shouldn't watch Human Centipede. Either one of those. You can't scrub hard enough with a Brillo brush to get it off of you. Apache, four days going sideways. Again, crude starting to pull off today. We may be very close to the highs for a while in crude. Don't see much other than a doji today in the XLE. But there's plenty of supply coming on in the U.S., no matter what they say over there, from the Saudis, there's plenty of supply coming from the United States, and that's where it matters. But a very low volume doji out here today, keep a close eye on that XLE. Tomorrow, if it starts to roll, I think that may be the start of something big, a wonderful friendship with me in shorts and energy. But we do not know. Let's see if we have any other big names out here. BA Boeing, where I'm not going and it's retesting, it's lows out here. So if you were thinking about buying Boeing, you got some fairly decent risk reward. 361.52 was the March 22nd low came in with 10 million shares today, 4.4 million shares. So if you're a big bull and you think you need to own Boeing, the risk reward probably not going to get any better. You just don't want a closing any lower than probably yesterday's low, which was 362.92. I don't see any reason to go out and buy it today. But if the market looks up tomorrow morning, it's probably bottomed. BABA, Ali BABA continues to just hang out at these levels. As we said, one more close below a three by three or a nine day moving average. Let's see what the three by three looks like. Yeah, I mean, we're right on it. But if we get any closes lower, look at BABA to really start moving lower. We've got a lot of stocks to look at, a lot of time. You give me a call at 877-9766-48. We got some emails in to path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. 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And it could make one of the strongest bear cases that you've seen in a long time. Now, again, $110 into the world, no. Even $101, no. But you could certainly get to $98 in a down market. And again, I think you only have one day to go to start thinking about that. So I would wait till tomorrow. But right now, if I had my druthers, there are a lot of stocks I'd like to be short, but I would probably rather be short Microsoft than long until it does some kind of pullback. Now, thanks to Pat, who reminds us that next Friday is Good Friday and the market will be closed. So we don't actually have expiration on the 19th. It's actually on the 18th. And then we get a three-day weekend. Hoorah! Hoorah! Thanks, Pat. I knew it was coming up. And every time I think about it, I forget to write it down, but I will not forget it again. You can give me a call at 877-927-6648. Email me at pathtfn.com and, of course, put a message in the den. See what else out here. Bed, bath, and below testing this 75 high. That's the November 2nd high. And again, people are buying this because Apple's going higher. They're assuming the two are linked. I got into the November 2nd high of 2018 that was 7511 that had 4 million shares. And, of course, we got into it with 2.4 million shares. So, again, any kind of downside in the market. And you could see a race to about 6250 on Best Buy. I kind of like that. Best Buy between now and August generally has a fairly bearish bias waiting for products to come out and see what they're going to look like for the fall. BMC Holdings, BMCH, no, BMCH, BMC Stock Holdings. March 1st, 1976 with 650,000 shares breaking through it today with 533. That one actually may get enough volume by the end of the day. See what else we do have. What's C and Q? Why does that ring a bell? Canadian natural resources. That's why it does. And, of course, what do we have out here? 7 million shares on December 3rd, $29.34. 7.7 million shares. Yesterday, 3 million shares. Today is 1.3 million shares. Asia spiked and came back in there. And, again, these will develop into much more bearish patterns tomorrow if we continue to roll lower right now. Let's go back here. We're off this four points on the SP cash. 77 on the Dow. Let me update those because I'm always worried that, yeah, 79 on the Dow. NASDAQ's off 25 and the Russell's down to crush. We've been talking about crush a couple of days watching these SMHs. They are extremely vulnerable. And you've got generally a couple of bucks up on them and maybe twice that or more down over the next few days. The risk reward is pretty weak to the upside. You've got a nice gap down here at 41 bucks. It hit today with 200,000 shares of 44.34 compared to that November 2nd high that had 2.7 almost 2.8 million shares at 43.25. So you are above it. But you've had no volume for about a week. What else do we have out here that we're looking at? CVX, which is Chevron. We've talked about this energy sector looking weak for a while. I think everybody thought that the formula winter summer formula rollover was a reprieve in the energy markets and they weren't going to do nothing but go higher. I don't see that. They look fairly weak. But again, I suspect tomorrow will be the answer with Chevron. It's gone really, man, you had a little pop up here on the 8th. And you had 5.5 million shares going into a 6.5 million share. I think there's a much better short bait out here than Chevron. But it is one of them. Dish networks. Dish networks is looking at a 850,000 share high today that goes back into a 5.5 million share high on November 2nd and a November 28th high with 2.7 million shares. So 850,000 shares is nothing. And of course, most of these have had very weak energy off those December 26th, 24th, 23rd lows. This one was the December 27th. But they've all gone up and had fairly weak energy. Dicks sporting goods. Now this one is going into its recent high of March 1st that had 2.8 million shares at $40.87. 1.7 million shares yesterday. So a million shares light today. 1.15 million shares with an hour and 40 minutes to go. Delphi DLPH automotive. Been testing its previous 3 million share high. That was on February 22nd, 2404 for the price. We are above it at 24.71 at the peak today. Kind of pulling back, I don't think it's going to get underneath that previous high. The interesting part of this is the 800,000 shares so far today. So let's say it does a million or 1.2 million. It's still going to be very light on that 3 million share high. Etsy. After its gap, it's gone nothing but sideways. Little higher lows and lower highs. That one's probably getting ready to bust a move one way or the other. No significant move then. Talking about bust a move. Bustle, which did get back up to $32.17 on short squeezes has come all the way back down. It is now testing its February 14th low at $12.98. And that had 12 million shares too. Got into that with 2 million shares yesterday. So at least there may be a bottom for fossil coming in here. And that may even be a long term bottom we do not know yet. But watch that the next couple of days too. We'll be back. Got lots of stocks to look at. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. 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A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for side fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. We're back down five. Got a question that is basically political, which is the new attorney general and what he said about basically the CIA, the NSA and the previous administration spying. Yeah, I don't know if that's going to have any implications so far. You go back to 1973, we got kind of some parallels, which is people spying on candidates. Now that, you know, it's out there in the, and we've actually had them say it, yes, they were spying on a candidate. And basically that's the problem that caused Watergate. So you just wonder how far, I know there's going to be seven or eight referrals to the Justice Department for prosecution. I don't know if any of those actually, I mean, those are all, you know, in those three letter agencies. I think if it was in the Treasury or maybe some of the others if it extends somewhere else, but I think it's kind of limited to a bunch of sickos in the government that wanted to overthrow that somebody they didn't like. And as long as that stays out of it, I don't know that that's going to have much of a influence, at least for the stock market. And maybe, you know, a lot of people get up, moved up and down by politics, but you know, yeah, I know, I know they're just saying how bad it is. This is Watergate times five. It's just going to take a long time. As Mark Twain said, the ally can go around the world twice before the truth gets out and puts its shoes on and goes out the front door. And it's just going to take a long time for these investigations to wind down to the prosecutions. And then we're going to actually hear what went on. But you can smell it. You already know it. And we'll just see whether or not the most of the press probably not going to want to comment on it. So probably not going to be a big deal for the markets. What else do we have going on? And we looked at Fossil. Look at Gold Corp. I mean, these things had, oh, we got a collar. Jeff, how you doing, Jeff? Hi, Dave. Can you hear me? Yes, I can hear you. Okay, great. So my question, it's kind of a math question. You probably figured this out a long time ago. So I do a lot of studies for different setups. I get ideas for different trade setups. And I want to do a study for myself. I make a big spreadsheet and I look for those setups on the chart. And my question is, how do you determine how many samples you need to have a statistically significant sample size? I remember back in physics class when we were doing experiments, the number was in the 30s. I don't remember exactly, but numbers between 31 and 36. But what's more important is I can't remember how we calculated that number. Well, I'll give you some ones I know right off the top of my head. There's about 6,000 tradeable stocks. And you can find the calculators online. I've done it, but if you're talking about plus or minus 2%, you need a sample size of about 300 and let's call it 334. I use 375 to get a good sample of a broad market. And that's why I really don't spend a lot of time looking at the NASDAQ 100 or talking about it on the show. It is way below any kind of threshold. And of course, they're all covariant because they're all in the same index, which is a real problem for it. But generally, if you do about 375 samples of a particular pattern, you're going to get probably plus or minus 2%. If you do about 325, you're going to get about plus or minus 5%. I'm sorry, what was that other number for 5%? About 325. Okay. So basically with a computer, if you're doing 325, it's no more effort to do 375, right? So if you've done those, that's kind of it. But there is a limit to it. I mean, you've got about 30 stocks that trade in the GDX, right? You can't get any more than that. So that's your entire sample size. So if you were doing some kind of sample in a particular sector, it also matters. If you're doing it in Russell, you've got 2,000 stocks. So you're probably talking about just off the top of my head, probably about 200, 225 would be a good sample size on that and a little more than 10%. But there's online calculators that will do that for if you just Google them. They'll give you the significant spread for the amount that you actually need. Go ahead. Yeah, you might be thinking of a different kind of study. Like the kind of study I'm talking about is maybe on one contract. Let's say take a soybean futures contract. And let's say that I think I noticed that every Friday it always closes down. I'm just making that up. So now I want to take a look at how many Fridays to know if I'm right or not. That kind of study is called a time sequence study, right? And there is a lot of work going on in those time sequence studies. But one of the problems you're going to have is figuring the amount of days and taking care of when, you know, sometimes that sequence is 10 days. Sometimes it's seven days. You know what I'm talking about? Or are you just talking about? Yeah, I mean you're going to have days in and out. There's a technique called time warp. I'm going to think about it here in a second. Time warp distortion. And I've done a lot of work on that since Christmas. But it is a way of trying to accordion the data in and out so that they all match. Mine, of course, is options expiration. And sometimes there'll be, you know, as few as 18 days. Sometimes, you know, without, with weekends and vacations and stuff. Sometimes, you know, 32 days. So how do you take care of all those options to options, expirations? And it's basically an algorithm called time warp distortion. And if you want to think about it, you know, the kind of accordions, like I'm not much of an accordion. But the one that kind of comes out more at the top and the bottom, we'll come back in a second. We'll answer it to finish your question. And I'll look up the exact name, but it's time warp distortion. We'll be back in a minute. Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six, and three months. 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Anyway, I looked up the article again. I found a package that did it for me, but if you think of a accordion, one of those ones that you can pull out more on the top than the bottom or sometimes more on the bottom than the top when you're squeezing them back and forth and making music, you kind of have to do that with the data. And there are packages that do that, but it's kind of important that if, you know, whatever your pattern is, let's say it's a 10-day pattern that you're looking at or let's say it was a Gartley pattern. If the C to D is like 40 days, but the A to the X to A was like 10 days, I mean, is that kind of the pattern you're looking for? There's got to be some level to the symmetry. And dynamic time warping is the way that you do that. It's used a lot in voice recognition where someone might speak slowly or someone might speak much faster, right? So how do you take care of all that? And it's, that's the algorithm that lets you kind of accordion in and out the data so that you can compare apples to apples. And that is a, especially in machine learning when you're doing those, you kind of need to do that or you can end up just with a result that looks very promising, but in practice doesn't end up working that well. You know what I mean? So it enforces a little bit of symmetry, but not perfect symmetry. It gives you a little fuzzing around the edges. But if you're doing and looking for some kind of pattern, generally without that in the stock market, your data probably is not going to work very well. It is out there, there are a lot of papers on it, and there are packages that you can get for free on GitHub and stuff. Okay, gone. I guess he's gone. Anyway, dynamic time warping. Yep, cool stuff. So when you can, not when you have to, you will see here tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat time.