 Okay, folks, good morning and welcome to Swing Trading Today. This is Bob Desmond and it is 521 in the AM, Eastern Standard Time, October the 22nd. And we have the S&P futures on a four hour basis down this morning, spot three, 2% or 11 points. You're not seeing a dramatic sell-off and in fact you're seeing a bit of support at around the 3,400 mark on the E-minis despite the fact that there is no deal. We have no deal out of Washington. The markets need more heroin. That's the only thing that's gonna keep this market going. We are becoming very close to closing out some of our long positions, raising cash and moving for the third time in the past two weeks to a short position but more and more of a growing short position. Absence some clarity as you proceed into the elections. What we're looking at are two obstacles. One, will there be a deal? Remember the only reason why this market is where it is at current given the virus is because of money printing. And tonight on Thursday Night Stock Charts Live, we're gonna take a look at the updated Fed balance sheet to see whether or not one of the reasons why this market hasn't rolled over this week absent any news is because their balance sheet rose yet again like it did last week. So 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time tonight. Use that link below to get alerted 15 minutes prior to it was going live or if you wanna take advantage of our five-part video tutorial on candlestick charting, you'll also receive that alert. Just don't opt into both because I don't want you to get spammed because I hate spam too. So just enter your email address on one list only, please. All right, so back to the E-minis. There is no fear per se in this chart despite the fact that we are down on the session a fairly orderly morning. The Russell 2000, the Russell has popped off the lows of the session. No new daily low in the pre-market session which is good to see. And in fact, what we'll be looking for here is a breakout and a retest of this breakout point. We broke out four-hour timeframe. No retest of support. We may or may not get that. Normally we like to see a retest of support because it validates a breakout but we may just may continue on here to the upside. We do have a lot of overhead supply above. So don't expect it to be a straight shot higher. Absent some sort of a deal out of Washington. The NASDAQ 100 down over a third of a percentage point. This is the equivalent of the trip queues. Now we have been short of the trip queues twice in the past week and a half, profitably on both. And I was reluctant yesterday to go reshorting out of fear that we might get headlines that come out and pop this market up higher. So orderly pullback wedge formation, the overall trend on a weekly monthly timeframe is still up. So any breakout or breakdown, the probability favors the breakout at current. Although I have to say the recent price action on a daily basis is lethargic at best and weak at worst. So beware here. And I'm not just talking about the NASDAQ 100. I'm talking about the E-minis or the S&P 500. I'm talking about the small caps as well and the Dow transports bearish key reversal day yesterday. And they have been a leader and they are forward-looking indicator of where the markets might be going. The markets need heroin, aka stimulus. Now before we take a tour down commodity lane, we need to take a look at the dollar. And the dollar is rebounding a bit here this morning. A lot of technical damage done. So this is probably just a dead cap bounce, especially if we get a deal out of Washington. I keep bringing that up, but it's important, it matters. And if we get a deal out of Washington, especially if it has a two trillion handle on it, whatever the number might be, it's gonna be diluted for the dollar. What's it gonna be good for? Gold. Gold is weak this morning on a stronger US dollar. You know, I was entertaining rebuilding on our gold mining trade yesterday, but I held off for a couple of reasons. I went over with members last night on Market Wrap. It's posted in the members area. So gold, weak on the session, no support levels broken, failed, we had a breakout point failure yesterday. We broke out, keep in mind, this is a four hour chart, not a daily chart, so it's more volatile. We broke out, failed to hold it. That's a bull trap. And the reason why I've been so careful with gold is because the tips, treasury inflation, protected securities have been weak. And I'm worried about a break here. Note the lower highs, we were seeing lower lows, but now it's stalled out a bit. So watch the tips. If you're looking to get long of gold, they generally trade in tandem. I always like to see historically correlated assets confirm each other's strength. And that tells me that, okay, you know, in all probability, if you want to buy the miners, if you want to buy gold and you have the tips moving up higher, the dollar moving down lower, the probability of the accuracy of your trade is far greater. So we'll be eyeballing this, the tips, the dollar and gold to identify when there is a best risk reward entry point to restock on our gold mining trade, which we book profits on mostly. I still have some position, mostly a couple of weeks ago. Moving on to Tesla. Tesla reported yesterday and not much in terms of price action here. And while their Q3 non-gap EPS and revenues topped earnings, you know, we saw a respectable move higher in the after hours, but most of the times on an earnings report where the negative positive in line, you see far more of a greater magnitude of a price move on Tesla. And we didn't get that. So you always have to wonder, you know, there's the public expected earnings and revenue number. And then you have your Wall Street whisper number that these guys on Wall Street have in their own ecosystem that they expect. So you wonder whether or not you're gonna get a negative sell-off on kind of muted reaction to strong earnings on Tesla. So let's take a look at Tesla's, excuse me. Let's take a look at Tesla's historical charts to identify where it closed out yesterday, taking into consideration that it popped up higher in the after hours to identify where it might be going if it breaks out or if it breaks down. Let's go through it. We're gonna use Trendspider. Trendspider is an automated technical analysis software that I love, use, and you should have it as a trader, as an arrow in your quiver. There's a 35% discount code below in the video description area. Please go check it out. And it's also free to my silver and gold level members. It's included with the membership levels. So with multi-time frame analysis, which is the utilization of both short-term time frame charts and longer-term time frame charts, we do that to identify where stock has been to determine where it might be going. And you can see that back here in August, we became very overbought relative to the third standard deviation Bollinger Band. Early on in September, still a strong month, but then we faded dramatically. Now in October, a down month, an inside month, no new high, no new low, we have broken down on the RSI in and of itself, not a reason to go bailing on the shares, but the monthly chart does not look optimistic. It's not a screaming sell either, to be fair. Now, we had broken out above resistance on a weekly time frame, the week of October the fifth, attempted follow-through rejection. Despite the fact, I'm making the call here, folks, despite the fact that we saw a pop higher in earnings after hours, I think that we're probably gonna see a pullback over the course of the next several days, perhaps not today, but a pullback to this breakout point, one, two or both of these breakout points to retest, to validate whether or not what was resistance will now act as support. Take note of RSI, RSI put in a W formation, it broke out on a weekly timeframe, daily chart, daily chart yesterday, a bearish reversal bar. Now, take note yesterday on the day before that we broke down below a volume shelf or into a trading range volume shelf. So I think that there's a strong chance that despite the fact that we closed up higher in the after hours session, that we may fade in the coming days. So what I wanna do here is this, I wanna take out my crayon, draw some support levels. I wanna get alerted just if we make a new daily low. And if we do, with the shares trading up in the after hours session, that's a pretty bearish event on positive news. And I'm not saying that's going to happen. I just wanna prepare for it. Just make a note to myself that earnings on the 21st, I wanna know whether or not we break this support level in white, and that'll have me watching this lower band of support here on a retest. Now, depending upon the health of the overall market, we may or may not enter a trade at this price point. I wanna keep this active for 10 days. Now, what if we don't pull back? We always need to plan big. What if our hunch is inaccurate, which it can be at times, let's face it. What we have here is on a weekly timeframe, we use a weekly timeframe. What we have here is a consolidation range. So I would wanna know when we break out above this upper band of resistance at 466.19. So our alert is set. If we pull back and retest the breakout point, we'll have an alert that'll fire off, advising us that we're there, depending upon the health of the overall market. If it's weak, we avoid the trade. We're not gonna bet for an outperformance of Tesla based upon a stock market that is weak, especially when you consider that 80 to 85% of all stocks, if not more times, trade with the overall index. We have a trip wire set to advise us of the fact that we have a new daily low. If we get a new daily low, after earnings which came out better than expected, that's a problem for Tesla. Now, the bull side, not that I'm bearish, but the bullish case, the hyper bullish case is that we continue to move up higher here and we managed to not trade intraday, but we close above resistance at 466.10 per share. And if the market is holding in there strong, well then we may just enter a long trade at that price point, but there are variables involved. And two of the key variables are, A, how is the market holding up? And B, what appears to be the narrative going into the election is that, while we may not have a deal now, we'll have one voted on after the election. Will the markets accept that? And my response is, I don't know. I'm just simply watching because I'm not that smart. So with that folks, patience, patience, patience, no knee jerk reaction impulse buying. The key to this game is preservation of capital primary and making a profit secondary. Now I do wanna wrap up with a member chart request. And that chart request is for Facebook, for fellow member Eric. Let's go to a monthly timeframe first. Very strong stock. We do have clear resistance above. Thus far this month we have an inside month, no new high, no new low. RSI is trending higher, stair stepping higher, weekly view. Again, folks, what we're doing is we're validating the health of the stock longer term to identify, are there any cracks in the uptrend dyke? So far we're not seeing it. We have a flag formation that is formed here. The automated trend lines are validating on my resistance levels above. RSI is rising and it is at around 60, which is good on a weekly timeframe. We are holding support, triangle formation forming, daily chart, it popped up higher yesterday. Gapped up higher, faded on the day. So what I would do here is this, set up a early warning signal, we closed right out or above a trip wire within this trading range, upper band, lower band of the trading range. This is the inside of that trading range. We showed strength, we wanna see this hold and we closed above a series of volume shelves, which is fairly bullish, despite the fact that we faded on the day. Now what we wanna see is a breakout above primary resistance and we wanna make sure it closes there. We'll keep it active for five days and keep in mind. If you enter this trade, what should influence your decision to enter the trade and the size of that trade would be the health of the overall market, which at current is walking on eggshells. And with that folks, I'm gonna remind you to please join us tonight, 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time for Thursday Night Stock Charts Live. That's where we review the weekly charts to identify how the markets appear to be closing on a weekly timeframe. That allows us to educate ourselves of as to how we might wanna position our portfolio on Friday in preparation for next week's new trading week. We don't begin our new trading week on Mondays. We begin it on the prior Thursday, then Friday, Saturday we do a synopsis and then after members on video of what our strategy might be based upon the closing price action of the indexes. We'll do a deep dive into our portfolio, what do we wanna change if anything and we'll do some analysis of our watch stocks. So again, please, if you wanna join us tomorrow night, there's a link below, 15 minute alert, you'll get notified 15 minutes prior to it was going live and we have a five part video tutorial on our five most powerful candlesticks as well. Opt into only one or of the two of them, okay? Please, so you're not getting duplicate emails. We hate spam too. All right, everybody have a profitable trading day and be well.