 Okay, welcome back to the outlook for the week ahead and I'm going to give you an update on where we finish in US equities last week, a chart here of the S&P 500, a couple of key levels to look out for going through the next couple of sessions. Then we're going to talk about Brexit on an update. We've got Eurozone inflation and ECB minutes coming out this week and US and Chinese manufacturing and service PMI data as well as earnings coming out from big giant US retailers. So let's start with this, the S&P 500 and the reason why is because the major US stock index is coming off its worst week since December 9th. We had that hot on inflation or hot on an expected inflation reading in the preferred measure for the Fed, the PCE number at the end of last week. And that has got people speculating once again that the Fed are not only going to have to increase rates further, that's very much expected, but even starting to price in and upshifting from how they downshifted to 25 back to 50. The pricing split at the moment in the short term interest rate futures market is about a 70-30 split between 25 is the base case, but now pricing a minority looking for a move back up to 50 basis points. There's obviously a little way to go yet. So we've got, I think it's 22nd of March the next meeting, so plenty of incoming data developments I'm sure to come between now and then. However, it's more about the prospect of higher rates for longer. And particularly, we saw the lights of those interest rates, sensitive growth stocks get hit, the NASDAQ, of course, underperforming last week. But as you can see here for the S&P 500, from the peak that we saw right at the beginning of the year, this trend line is really in play. It's acted well as resistance areas back in March. Also retest in the summer of last year. So this is going back to the beginning of 2022, I should say. And then March, the summer, and then at the end of last year, we did break through that. And you can see acted as a bit of a catalyst, technically for the push-up that we saw to 4,200 before. Now we started to see the market pull back and fairly aggressively. So we've come back down to that trend line. It's going to be quite key on the weekly performance. Anything below this area really opens up and becomes vulnerable somewhat to a deeper pullback down to around 3,800. And of course, plenty of Wall Street banks calling for lower equity prices at the moment in valuations to compress further, given the inbound economic slowdown that we're set to experience, despite some of the more positive economic data points that we've had. The point being is that any bright spots that we see in a decent labor market or in terms of price pressure still being eminent in the lights of PCE, the more likely rates are going to have to stay higher for longer and stocks don't like that. That's the general summary. But let's jump into some of the news flow. Not too much really to be to update you more of an outlook for the week. And Brexit, here they are. She's Sonak, the UK Prime Minister, of course, and Ursula van der Leyen. They're going to meet in the UK on Monday, speculation, building of an imminent announcement on a post-Brexit settlement for Northern Ireland. The deal would seek to soften trade and regulatory barriers that emerged within the UK as a result of the Northern Ireland protocol. So still quite a bit of work to be done here politically. As you would expect, the lights of the DUP, the more right-minded conservative MPs still to satisfy. So definitely not a done deal at this point, although lots of smoke, if you like, lingering in the air in UK press this weekend that a deal is imminent at this point in time. Would it move to pound? Not really, I don't think. But at the moment, I think the major currency pairs are more driven by dollar dynamics, as we saw last week on the back of that data. Eurodollar and Cable, both lower on the week and that predominant selling pressure came towards the back end of the week on the prevailing dollar strength that we saw on that renewed rate expectation coming out from the market. That also, of course, meant we had higher US yields, which pushed the 10 year down as well as the US equity market. It's all very much US influenced at the moment. Then a quick look elsewhere. Talking about inflation, the eurozone is going to be quite interesting, particularly on Thursday. Economists expect headline eurozone inflation to drop to close to a year low in February, but the core reading, of course, is going to be particularly of interest and likely to remain somewhat still quite sticky at this point. The headline reading is expected to slow, so continuation of this trend we've seen really since the autumn of last year when we peaked at 10.6%. The previous reading was at 8.6 in Jan. We are expecting that to decrease once again to 8.1% is the median consensus, predominantly lower driven by decreasing energy prices. The core reading, though, if I just jump over here, it is problematically, at least for the perception of markets about what's going to happen with an ongoing tightening cycle from the ECB, is that analysts are expecting the core reading to remain at 5.3%, which, of course, is the highest on record. Now, the reason why Thursday is going to be quite interesting is just a few hours after that eurozone inflation print, we're going to get the ECB publishing their minutes of the account of the February monetary policy meeting where they concluded that a half a percentage point increase was appropriate at the time. So investors will monitor that in case of any details about the planned path for rates beyond March. However, as is always the case with minutes, they could be somewhat outdated in the context of if we get an outlying inflation reading earlier in the morning, that will by far dominate proceedings for the euro currency and euro-denominated assets. Looking elsewhere, I did briefly mention earnings. So earnings season very much coming to the tail end of things at the moment, but retail giants like the company names such as Costco, Target, Home Improvement Store, Lowe's, Budget Friendly Dollar Tree, among others are all reporting this week. We also get big oil names like Occidental Petroleum. You can see aftermarket Wednesday, you get the lights of the tech firm Sales Force. In terms of what we're expecting, of course, we had the largest retailer last week, Walmart, they reported strong fourth-courter earnings, but issued a cautious outlook for the second half of the year when it expects sales to fall. So whether or not we'll see similar is what we're going to look out for. Meanwhile, jumping geographically elsewhere to the far east, looking at China, we get the official and independent manufacturing PMIs for February. They're both going to be released on Wednesday. So economists polled by Bloomberg expect the former. So this is the official reading to, well, first of all, what is the difference, I guess, between the official and independent readings? So let's just go through this. This is the China NBS. So the official kind of Bureau of Statistics reading that we get. So this is classified as the official one. It concentrates largely on large, state-owned enterprises. It is expected to come in at 50.7. So you can see here that would at the last 12 readings, Mark, the highest that we've had over that period, meaning then that further expansion into or further movement into expansion territory above that key threshold of 50, as far as the PMIs are measured on the K-Shin manufacturing PMI. That looks at coverage of mid-sized private companies that make up the majority of the sector. And it's tipped to exit contraction with a reading of 51.3. So, yeah, both positive developments, really. And as you can see from this Chinese number, we exploded higher back in Jan. Obviously, the NBS one, people are a little bit of a skeptical eye, just given it's more government state-owned enterprises and a big jump. And a lot of that was on the positivity of the reopening. So the government just looking to reaffirm this idea of more positivity coming in, dropping of the zero, tolerance procedures. But the other figure, the K-Shin one, is expected to move up into positive expansion territory, which will be quite key. So kind of a not an immediate tradeable event, but something of a more positive force for the overall global picture and the idea about more of a soft rather than hard landing on a global perspective. Finally, just taking a quick look on the US from what it is, quite a few things out, but I'm just going to focus on the ISM manufacturing service reports for February. They drew out on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. On the service side, analysts expect to pull back as weather related impacts of the last two months subside. You can see here, we had a particularly cold in the States. So impeding the ability for consumers to get out there and really utilize a number of the service main industries that compile of this number. So we had the press figure in December and a really strong figure with really great weather, quite the opposite in January. So looking that to just just balance off a little bit and probably likely to pull back just a touch. Meanwhile, durable goods, they also going to come out in the US on Monday. It should fall quite a lot, analysts at IG, though, say you shouldn't be alarmed by that. It's entirely due to volatility in Boeing aircraft orders. The company received 55 orders for aircraft in January. And that's down from 250 in December. So outside of transportation, orders more likely to be flat at this point. So that's it. So thanks very much for listening. Don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel and have yourself a good week ahead. All right, take care.