 Now obviously all the headlines have been about Greece. I'm sure you've seen in the papers that the Greece populace voted overwhelmingly no to the latest offer from creditors. So that's really why we're seeing markets down across the board today. The funny thing is they're actually quite significantly higher than the futures markets suggested they would be, looking particularly at the Germany 30. If you look at the lows that we have on our charts, close to a 400 point open to the downside, we're expecting at one point, but we're down in the region of 180 odd points at the moment. So quite a pull off the lows. And you know, there's different factors when we're looking at different markets, equities. You know, I'd still judge it there, particularly in Europe. We've got the European Central Bank putting a floor under equities with the quantitative easing program. You know, that's the backdrop that we have here. So you can't let Greece distract us too much from the overall scenario. That's obviously why we're seeing a drop at the moment. But quite a few people looking at this as an opportunity to buy equities at cheaper levels, particularly in the U.S. Obviously, they're just less directly impacted by Greece, but nevertheless, their markets are dropping alongside ours. We're just going into earnings season in the U.S. Looking at the Euro, that's all a big lower, gap lower on Sunday. We've actually filled that gap lower again a bit since then. But in the case of the Euro, again, you know, we've had some fairly decent economic data from Europe in the past few weeks. And equally, we had the U.S. jobs number on Friday and that missed expectations. A subcomponent of that was wage growth. And that completely missed expectations was just zero. So no growth in wages on the month. And so, you know, when you trade the Euro, obviously Greece is big, but keep the overall context in mind about, you know, sort of macroeconomics behind the Euro and the U.S. dollar. So we have a lot of economic data this week, but really not too much today. There's U.S. service. I'll pull up Sterling just because I think the next big one is UK industrial production tomorrow. And obviously we do have the budget today, which is unlikely to cause any massive swings in Sterling, I would judge. But it's certainly possible. So this is my sort of reasoning on Sterling at the moment, that we did make a new high. We had a strong run higher, though. And when it was a strong run higher like that, typically sees a sort of stronger correction, particularly when we've only just about made it past that previous peak. In my judgment, though, we are still just about in an uptrend. That can obviously change the further we move lower. But for me, still while we're above 151.80, we're still okay for an uptrend in the British pound against the dollar. And we're coming into a cluster of potential support here from this old peak. So that's what you see in uptrends, obviously. You see a new higher high being made. And then oftentimes you'll see the higher low being formed in and around the previous peak. And we've got a couple of moving averages there. To help justify that, coupled with a 61.8% retracement. Now I think where we are at the moment is about a 50% retracement. And it's also this sort of place that we saw a slight dip on the 11th of June. So again, a bit of a bounce from there. So certainly could move higher from here. And anyone looking for longs down in this region would miss out. But this to me seems like a cluster of potential support that if the pound is looking to move higher, that's a possible area. Supported that, sometimes the RSI can be useful. It's been quite useful in terms of just moving between the 80 on the top side and then this 35 level on the downside has been useful. So once we touch that area, that again could come inside with this general support area here. Not quite sure UK industrial, but obviously we've got the dollar side of the coin. And on Tuesday we've got the US trade balance. So that will be important. You normally get a bunch of revisions of GDP after the trade balance. And then probably the most important thing of the week for currencies is we've got the FONC minutes on Wednesday. So let me just do a forum post. That was the expense of the gap. You can see it opened on Sunday there. We finished Friday there, opened on Sunday there. We almost perfectly rolled over after covering that gap. Now the general trend is low. This is the 200 hour moving average. This is the 200 day moving average. We're well beneath that. And we're pretty much forming some, we're still within this kind of range environment. So I think still a 108, 20 could provide some support if and when we get down there. But in this shorter term scale, looking at maybe sort of a four hour chart, we're in a sort of choppy-ish downtrend. That said, it's going to be a bit of work to get through because through the sort of 109, 550 type area, because that is a gap down and then a close higher. So that's a huge candlestick. That was Monday last week, a week ago, when we heard some comments from the Euro group that the Greek deal was looking promising. Obviously that didn't pass. But there's still hopes for the deal, even though the Greeks have voted yes. And so game is not over yet. Obviously the US Euro macroeconomic factors, as I just mentioned, involved as well. So this could be a big one to bounce and we'll already see the move higher to fill the gap from there. Maybe we'll get a false break below here. And then I think probably the biggest tell will just be what would the daily candlestick do in and around that support area, which I do think probably on odds on chance was going to get tested. And if you're looking at this range with this, the likely next area of the support in the range and the sort of general choppy downtrend, odds on it's going to get broken. If we do get a move lower and then a close above it again, that's kind of a false breakout and could suggest a move back up to the sort of 130, 114 type region. Not too much in the way of Euro being dated to affect this. So I think it is going to be largely sort of fed speculative flows that affect this. We've got quite a few fed speakers this week actually. They don't show up on the economic calendar on CMC markets. So good to be aware of those. Got Williams speaking on Wednesday. Coach Lakota on Thursday. And then Yellen, the most important on Friday. Obviously the chair of the Fed on Friday. Incidentally, we've got a bit of Chinese data this week. Chinese markets have been pretty crazy of late. You know, the kind of cash index that's a good one to follow on CMC markets is Hong Kong's China listed eight shares. So the kind of mainland shares, but as they're trading on Hong Kong, these have not seen the same level of volatility that the actual Shanghai exchange has. But still, you know, you can see a pretty sharp kind of downside correction here. And this is even after, over the weekend, the Chinese government instituted a few reforms in terms of margin, et cetera, to try and boost confidence with regards to the stock market. Some specific rules regarding stock markets, which are supposed to be supportive that the Shanghai exchange did close higher, but in the context of recent volatility, not by much. But Chinese data nonetheless this week, that's also big if you're trading likes of gold and some of the other metals. So if we look at copper today, I'm not bouncing around a bit, but I'm trying to keep it in the topic of China. We've got Chinese CPI and money on Thursday, money supply on Friday. You know, just look at copper today getting absolutely trashed. Moving a similar amount lower to oil. We'll talk about oil in a second, but this is actually quite a nice technical move in copper because again, just back to that, you know, lower low, lower high, lower low, and then the lower high made in the region of the previous lower high, lower low, I beg your pardon, and we made a new lower low today. And 250 is a big round. Most of them might get a bit of a reaction from there. It's also where we started to see things break out back in January, but these are the lows, the sort of 245 that really need to be tested in copper. So I think there's quite a good chance at this point, especially in light of this crash that's taking place in Chinese stocks and this sort of overall slowdown in the Chinese economy. I think it's a good chance we move down to those lows in copper. Now, since we're on quantities, and I did just mention oil, Brent's getting pretty heavily smashed today. It might be worthwhile referring back to my snapshot video from Thursday. I did talk about this rising trend line and the implications of one of the first increases in inventories. After nine weeks of drawdowns, we saw an increase in U.S. oil inventories sort of indicating that again, supply is overwhelming demand a bit in the U.S., and we saw some of the reason for that. It's just gone Friday when the Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase in the number of rigs in the U.S., so companies coming back in and trying to take advantage of this high oil price since we've bounced at the start of the year in the U.S. and it's not good for the sort of general supply dynamics, that supply-glut scenario coming back in and absolutely makes sense in the context of this broken rising trend line that I mentioned in the snapshot video, and we're seeing some pretty fast moves lower as of Friday and today. And to me, 57, 5720 is a 50% retracement and people will definitely have their eye on that because that's just a half correction back of the move from January to May. But there is an even stronger confluence of these lows and the 61.8% down here in the region of 55. So a couple of levels to keep an eye on. The momentum is to the downside at the moment, so in terms of short-term trading, your best odds below all these moving averages is to the downside, but just keep an eye on these support levels where we could see a more significant bounce. The situation looks pretty similar in WTI where we had this sort of triangle pattern here where the prices was not able to get through. It didn't close above 61, I believe. 61 was a big one, but we saw a few spikes above and made this 61.50, the sort of significant area where this rising trend line broke through. Nice little retest on the next day's candle and then just tanked ever since. So I also highlighted this in the chart form, the fact that we'd broken through the RSI support too. So when you see those two things matching together, a breakthrough bounced off the 200-day moving average, closed below the 50-day, then closed below the rising trend line, retracement, saw the same in RSI, broke below, retest. This is all quite... I mean, it's obviously benefited hindsight here, but this is all quite textbook trading. So if you are in this trade, the question then is obviously, where do you look to cut your losses? Sorry, take your profits. Hopefully you've decided that already, but just for the sake of interest, I would say this is quite a pivotal breakout area just from this high here. There's a few of them. You could even use this. This is where we are at the moment. It does coincide with this low here. So I do think that perhaps we might end up closing above here today. We are heading into that 30-area near RSI. So that's... I don't think that's to be all an end, or I think we have turned a corner here in terms of all speculation. That could cause a bit of a bounce in time being, but I think we're probably heading down to this peak or this low, which is in about the sort of the same vicinity. Basically, around that $50 bore away. We got to $60, tried to get up to $70, failed heading down to $50. It's my very simple logic on this. But we've got Iran trying to negotiate a deal with the U.S. over its nuclear treaty. If that all goes ahead, it sort of looks like it's probably going to. The U.S. seemed pretty keen on it. Then that opens up less sanctions for Iran, more oil supply, and that coupled with what seems to be a bit of a turnaround in U.S. oil supply. As we just mentioned in terms of inventories, the number of rigs, then it started to slant oil towards the downside. I'm not calling for a break of the lows just yet, but I don't think there's really the justification for higher prices, and I think $50 is on the cards in WTI. Today is a day where there should be a massive flight to safe havens. It's not taking place. Gold is just looking pretty weak in general. I mean, I say weak. Weak of an expected U.S. data on Friday, which probably reduces the odds of a rate hike in September for the Fed to act and raise interest rates for the first time in September, but still over 200,000 jobs were created and wave growth over the year. It's not fantastic, but it's still 2%, so it's not negative or anything, so still a rate hike this year is favored by most economists and the market puts it sort of at the end of the year towards the start of next year. So that being the case, even though U.S. data was this is Thursday where Gold came lower, perfectly bounced off of the previously drawn declining trend line through the lows here, got a good bounce, formed a hammer candlestick pattern off the lows, was looking good there based off of that non-farm payrolls data, but almost no follow-through since. Obviously Friday was a very low volatility day, so you can't read too much from that just because it was the U.S. July 4th holiday, but today tried to move higher and a sort of opposite-looking chart almost to the euro and to European stocks where it's actually tried to push higher and then close the gap. So pretty weak action from Gold and suggestive to me that we're probably going to push through and try and test this 145-ish type low, but that said, I can see that we've got to get through the bottom of this candle first, so we could, again, bounce off the bottom of the trend line. If we've got a little false break and then a close higher again, that would support to me this hammer pattern and then we could get a push back up to seems to be a bit of a confluence of resistance from a potential declining trend line there. We've got two touches on it, but also this previous peak. Keep in mind, of course, that the averages are generally sloping down, but it's a bit rangy, so you sort of bias to the downside but don't expect to get too far with it as I think the general idea we're called at the moment. So typically I'll do indices first, but I haven't done it last this time around. Let's get over to those though. We'll start with the UK 100, which typically when there's good news on Greece, it underperforms, but when there's bad news on Greece, it outperforms, and so the UK economy is still affected by the European economy, so tends to move in the same direction but just sort of to a lesser extent, and so we're seeing that again today. Obviously the UK in terms of its mining stocks are a bit more and more exposed to China, so we saw some volatility in China on their stock markets. It's not that the stock market movement affects the economy, but obviously you need people investing in Chinese businesses and they are going to be the same kinds of people they're investing in the stock markets. They're just sort of a dense overall investor confidence in China, which is not where they need when the economy is slowing anyway. So at the moment we're potentially looking at a little double bottom in the UK 100 here. We're below all the moving averages, so that doesn't help any sort of long trades, but still we've got to keep their kind of longer term perspective in mind here. We're still, even though we've kind of broken through some quite significant lows, we're still generally speaking, we're above this 200 week moving average for example, which matches this low from Jan 11th. Above that area there are still going to be people looking for a bargain and buying into the financing. So short term weakness, but just remember there's going to be some big longer term buyers coming in at some point. So the chance of a double bottom here, if we do close below, I think we're probably looking at 6300, but if we do manage to hold above, chance of moving back up to the peak and then perhaps that's the end of this correction that we're seeing, we start to drift higher again. I guess sort of more generally in this, if you are going along here, you've got to expect it to be a choppy ride in the UK 100 because the short term trend outside. So there's going to be people looking to sell in the short term. So every kind of rally you get is going to pay some selling and it's going to be a sort of choppy up the stairs movement and it's going to be a worry every time you hit some big overhead resistance that sellers may overwhelm again and push us into new lows past the 6500 mark. Proper cross to Germany. Still got this channel still in play in the Germany 30 at the moment. So our short term moving averages, but the bottom of the channel coincides with this low from Fed 9th and the 200 day moving average. So I could see a push through past there because a lot of people are going to be watching that level. Well I suspect that will hold to some degree and I think if we do get down to that kind of level it will help us get through 11,000 again. Again, just generally the idea that of course Greece is a major headwind and if they go spiraling out of the Eurozone who knows quite what the consequences will be but still at the moment at least the Eurozone economy is ticking over quite well and again we do have the quantitative easing from the ECB which is a bit of a sort of ongoing possibility that if things do start to look pretty crazy in Greece they could actually increase the size of their purchases. Obviously that was not the original purpose of the program it was to fight inflation which has been a fight deflation rather which has been receding recently but they could create themselves a new mandate to increase purchases as sort of economic emergency measure. Possibility, I don't think it's going to happen but it could and if it did I think that would be a game changer for the equities at least. And over to US markets as we approach the end here again let me know if there's any particular maybe slightly strange currency pairs you've been watching or anything along those lines I'm happy to talk about them. This is the US 30. I've drawn this rectangle along here just sometimes helpful to sort of keep the general context in mind here because we've got the moving averages on which are good when it's a trending market but for the moment it's really not trending in the US it hasn't been trending since the start of the year even into the end of last year and so don't read too much into the fact that we've broken below the 200-day moving average because it's really just not a... a lot of people will be watching that but it's not a trending environment at the moment equally the fact that we're below that the short-term moving average is we've been above them, we've been below them above, below, above, below, that's a range market. Some indications suggest that perhaps we're moving out of a range environment into a downtrend but until we get through this sort of 1740 to that 17,000 round number until we get below that I'm pretty hesitant to say that we're outside of the range I think there will still be people looking again similar to the fantasy looking for... looking for bargains above that 17,000 mark so US 30 looking very sideways but if we look at the US STS 500 a slightly different picture bit more upward sloping and a bit more of a breakdown from that upward sloping picture this is the 200-day moving average here which we've got to bounce into came into resistance against this this rising trend line rolled over again now we're below it now this is potential support this to me is quite a... recognizable rectangle that a lot of people will be aware of on their charts sort of you know I guess you could just draw it like that so you know below that then you're looking to sort of the extended bottom of the rectangle down to sort of here I've drawn trend lines but you know you can just keep it simple the horizontal lines so I think quite simply if we do get below this area here it's quite pivotal we've got a few rising trend lines in between but I think it could open up a move down to this from 190 again so here's the definite we've already seen a strong reaction higher so if we do get a bit lower and again it could be a sort of false break lower and then a move back up again if we close below to me that certainly confirms a down trend and then actually try and look for lower risk opportunities after that obviously we're quite low in the scope of the correction so you don't want to be selling too low but a close below here to me would be some good confirmation for a move down to these rising trend lines as next potential support probably going to again as we mentioned earlier largely depend on the FOMC minutes this week think of the context of that is that the last statement was on the dovish side at least it was interpreted that way just because there was no specific reference to September being the key sort of lift-off date which there probably never was going to be if they want to leave themselves some flexibility but also no real strong language about the strength of the labour market just a recognition that's picking up but talking about weak wage growth which we saw confirmation of on Friday and no explicit reference to the dollar but that's something that we could see in these minutes again talking about the effect of the strong dollar on the US economy and on US corporate profitability they're not going to mention that specifically but that's going to be another theme in this upcoming earnings season is the fact that the dollar is still broadly stronger than it was a lot stronger than it was a year ago and these multinationals are going to be affected negatively because of that so obviously the minutes are a bit out of date because they don't consider the last jobs report that we had so maybe the minutes plus Yellen's speech on Friday will give us a kind of true context as to which to understand the situation in the dollar and US stocks so I think we're going to call it a day now I think I've covered all of what's relevant for the upcoming week good luck with trading and I'll catch you in the same time next week Jasper Laws signing out, thank you