 Hey everyone, this is Dan. Welcome to another episode of my ASML videos. I've been trading ASML in the last couple of years and have earned quite a bit of profit. I believe ASML is the best semiconductor stock for several reasons. Just in the last month, it went up more than 12%. I believe the stock will continue to go up. Let's get into the details. First of all, let's review the price forecast I gave in my August 12th video. At the time I predicted ASML would be at $850 or above by the end of November 2021. On $812, ASML closed at $781. And as of today, September 15, it closed at $889.33 already. Definitely price went up more than what I predicted and definitely in the right direction as I predicted. In light of all that, will I be setting a new price target? I will explain that in the next few minutes. Let's go back a little bit and trace the price forecasts I provided and how the price moved subsequent to my forecasts. My first ASML video was published on March 28th of this year. At the time, the price was $626 and I forecasted the price would be at $640 or above. And then on June 6th, the price already went up to $683. Definitely went up as I predicted and exceeded my price target. And then on June 6th, I raised my target at $720. And then a little bit more than a month later, July 21st, the price went up to $721. Again, exceeding my target by a little bit. On that day, I raised my target at $750. And then about three weeks later, August 12th, the price went up to $781 already. Exceeding my target, then on that day, I raised my target yet again to $850. And then about a month later, on September 15th, the price is $889. Again, exceeding my target. So what's going to be my next target? I will talk about that pretty soon. Stay tuned. Let's look at the one-year chart. This is based on a daily period. The candlestick chart is ASML. I'm plotting this chart against two very popular semiconductor stocks, NVIDIA and AMD, Advanced Micro Devices. As you can see in the last year, AMD went up about whooping 140%, definitely extremely impressive. NVIDIA, on the other hand, went up by 71.97%, pretty impressive but not nearly as good as ASML. And AMD went up by 35%. QQQ, representing the movement of NASDAQ 100, went up by about 35% also. And SPY, representing the movement of Standard and Poor 100, went up also by about 35%. So definitely you can see the historical performance of ASML. And actually that momentum is most likely going to continue. If you look at Google Trends and see how many searches have been done on the keywords ASML, that's represented by the blue line. That's how it trended in the last year, pretty much low number of searches. As compared to NVIDIA, the red line and AMD stock, the yellow line, you can see ASML has not been very well known by the investors. Or at least there have not been so many searches on those two keywords ASML stock in the last year. That's why I'm saying that ASML is the least known among the three stocks. In the meanwhile, if you look at the PEC ratios, ASML is at 1.8. That's according to Yahoo Finance. NVIDIA is 1.66 and AMD is 1.35. So ASML has about the same PEC ratio as NVIDIA, although both of them are higher than AMD. But all these numbers are pretty reasonable. And that's why I believe it's a pretty safe environment at this point to invest in ASML. And when ASML becomes more well known and more popular, I believe the price will continue to go even higher. As I covered in my previous video starting from the March 28th video, I mentioned that ASML has some monopoly in the EUV semiconductor lithography market with 100% market share. Now the EUV technology is needed by any semiconductor foundry that needs to make chips that are 7 nanometers or smaller in dimension. And that's why they have a monopoly in that market. And then next to that, in the EUV market, they also have 88% market share. There's no other semiconductor company in the world that enjoys this kind of monopolistic position. And that's why I believe ASML is the best semiconductor stock to buy. And of course, we also will be looking at the valuation of the company and what is overpriced underpriced. All the other considerations will support my argument that it is indeed the best semiconductor stock to buy at this point. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I provide my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. Let's continue. ASML announced their second quarter earnings on July 21st. And by all measurements, the results were very impressive. And the management said that they expected the sales to grow about 35% in 2021. And previously, the target was only 30%. So definitely, they revised the target upwards, which is another bullish sign. Since all the advanced FAT plans will be needing the ASML EUV Lithography equipment, let's look at how much money will be invested in new FAT plans in the next few years. First of all, Intel announced about 6-7 months ago that they will be investing $20 billion in the next 2-3 years. And actually, they have revised the number upwards. I will talk more about that. Towers Semiconductor then announced that they would be announcing $100 billion in the next 3 years for building new FAT plans. And then Samsung followed up with the announcement of $300 billion of investment through 2030. There will be a lot of investment made also in the European Union, although that's still evolving. We'll cover that in the next couple of minutes. In the meanwhile, it's being reported that Taiwan Semiconductor has been talking with several entities in Germany about setting up plans in Europe. Also, September 10th, Fortune magazine reported that the Intel CEO said they would be investing $95 billion in FAT plans in Europe. And construction could begin as soon as 2022. ASML plans to ship 40 EUV systems in 2021. Each system costs hundreds of millions of dollars. And the quantity that they're going to build is pretty precise. And actually, they have orders to cover the next couple of years. And that's why the earning stream is extremely predictable. And recently, ASML also bought back shares to reward their shareholders. These are a couple of charts from the Better Investing Stock Selection Guide database. If you look at how ASML's sales have been trending, which is the black line here, it's been trending upward nicely. And compared to NVIDIA and AMD, they're pretty much all trending up because of the semiconductor shortage that's been going on. And if you look at ASML's EPS, the black line here, it's pretty healthy also in the last five, six years. It's comparable to NVIDIA. And AMD is very impressive. And I have produced videos analyzing NVIDIA and AMD as well. And I own shares of ASML and NVIDIA as well as AMD because I'm bullish on all three companies. As far as ASML's historical EPS growth, since 2012, they've been growing at 23%. And since 2016, the growth has accelerated to 30%. And actually, the management is saying that their sales will be growing at 35% for 2021. So these are all very bullish signs for ASML. If you look at the return on equity of the three companies, they're pretty much comparable, at least in the last four years. It's a little bit bumpy for AMD, although they've stabilized since about 2017. And then if you look at debt to capital ratio, of course, the lower the number, the better. ASML is a black line here. It's comparable to NVIDIA. Actually, it's a little better than NVIDIA, although advanced micro devices has made significant improvements since 2016. And actually, the debt to capital ratio is more favorable compared to ASML or NVIDIA. But in fact, all three companies are in pretty good shape as far as debt to capital ratios. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe, and notification button so that you'll be notified when I publish my next video. It will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. An article from Motley Fool published today investigated the growth of ASML. If you look at their revenues, it's been growing since 2017 at a pace of 33%. And then went down a little bit to 22 and then 8% in 2019 when the entire industry went through the slum. And then it picked up again for 2020 and 18%. And the first half of 2021, it jumped at whooping 45%. Growth margin, again, significant improvement. They are all more than 40%. And recently it jumped up to 52.4%. And definitely that's a very impressive growth margin. EPS growth, I went from 42 to 27 to 1% 38%. And then the first half of 2021, the EPS growth was an impressive 110%, another bullish sign. This is the evaluation I did in my last video. I'm keeping the same calculations, same assumptions. As I mentioned in my last video, I calculated the prices for 2021, 22, and 23. And they are 631, 819, and 1063. And from that, last time I decided to set a target of $850 a share by the end of November 2021. As of today, since the price already went up beyond $850, I am setting a higher target of $910 a share to be achieved by the end of November 2021. As you can see, $910 is still within this range. A little bit on the high side, but it's still safely within this range. Let's look at the other analysts' opinions. I'm comparing the ratings from August 12th to today's ratings. As far as closing price, it was at $781. Now it's at $889. My target went from $850 to $910. And Yahoo Business maintained a buy rating. High target went up actually from $820 to $975. Average price target went up from $760 to $861. Low target went up also from $700 to $720. Luz Nevillea maintained his very bullish overall A rating. TipRanks.com maintained their moderate buy rating. The high target went up from $820 to $998. That's a significant jump. And the average target went up also from $810 to $949. And the low target went up as well from $800 to $874. CN Money maintained a buy rating. The high target went up slightly from $966 to $975. Medium target from $800 to $925. Low target. That was apparently a mistake last time from CN. I checked that and that was what they printed. But now apparently they realized error and they revised that low target to $743 more in line with the other organization's low targets. And then the Street.com maintained their buy rating A minus. Their target went up from $1043 to $1120. And my target of $910 is pretty much around the medium or average target range among these rating agencies. That's why I'm very comfortable with the target of $910 for now. And most likely as the price continue to go up I will revise my target upwards. Let's look at the chart. This is the daily chart. From this chart we can see that the price was trending upward along this very bullish channel all the way up until the middle of July. Then it took a yet more positive turn upwards and followed this new channel with a steeper slope going up. At this point the RSI indicator is flashing an overboard warning. And previously when RSI was at this level for example here the price went sideways for a couple weeks before it picked up momentum again. And also when it happened here it actually went down for a few days until it hit the middle of the Bollinger Band, the 20 day moving average before it picked up again. And that's why at this point I won't be surprised if the price starts to move sideways for a few days or even go down a little bit. And maybe when it hit the middle of the Bollinger Band then it will start to pick up again. So I'll be waiting a little bit. I won't definitely won't be buying at this point but I'll be waiting for the price to dip a little bit and start to recover before I buy more. And actually when it starts dipping I might even sell some of my existing shares to lock in my profit. As far as the DMI indicator it's still flashing bullish. MACD also bullish. But then again the stock is probably at this point a little bit overboard. I expect to pull back in the next few days. Let's look at the hourly period. We hit an all-time high here on Wednesday at 9.02.72. And that's why at that point it's going to be a very strong resistance point. It's probably going to take us a few days before we can overcome that resistance. If you look at the RSI signal here it's flashing an overboard situation and sure enough the price started to go down. And if you look at the DMI indicator it's still bullish but MACD turned bearish about five six hours ago. Let's look at the support and resistance levels. I drew the Fibonacci extension diagram here using this point in the beginning of March as a minimum point and this point in the middle of July as a maximum point. As you can see from this diagram the line is accurately predicted quite a few pricing levels in the last few weeks. And that's why I believe this Fibonacci extension diagram is applicable. For support levels I see the next support level 8.84 which is right here Fibonacci 78% and then the next level down will be 8.48 which is here Fibonacci 61% and also in the middle of the Bollinger band 20 days simple moving average. Next level support will be 8.23 here and then the next level down 7.97 Fibonacci 38%. For resistance levels I see the next resistance at 9.03 which is the all-time high level and then the next level up will be 9.08. It's the upper Bollinger band around here and then next level up 9.30 which is Fibonacci 100% and the next level up will be 9.80 Fibonacci 123%. What are my strategies? First of all I expect a small pullback in the next three to four days. The price will either go down a little bit until it'll hit the middle of the Bollinger band and most likely it'll recover from there. Or better yet the price might just go sideways horizontally for a few days before it picks up momentum again and continues to move up. Because I'm bullish about ASML for the long term I'll be holding half of my shares for the long term and I'll be doing swing trading with the rest of the shares. I will buy more shares during dips and when it bounces from a support level or when positive news breaks out. And I will sell some shares when it drops at T resistance level or when adverse news breaks out. For example if ASML starts to drift down in the next couple days I will most likely sell some of my shares to locking my profit. And I will tweet my subscribers when I buy or sell ASML shares or when major news breaks out. For example on July 27 I tweeted to my subscriber that I sold some ASML as well as mRNA and BNT shares because this price has started to drift down so I sold some shares to locking my profit. And then on August 18th I tweeted again saying that I bought some ASML shares because the price was at a time 4% below the all-time high and it was starting to recover. And since August 18 because I bought the shares at $778.60 I'm already seeing a 14% paper gain which is not bad. Again if you like what you see please click the like subscribe and notification button. As usual I will very much appreciate your comments questions and suggestions. Let me recap my price forecast. I expect ASML to be at or above $910 a share by the end of November 2021. And as of today it closed at $889.33. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.