 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Yet another banger of a sports weekend coming up. We have already talked about college football We have discussed NFL week one traditional markets But now we're gonna talk about some player props and also talk about some strikeout props on the MLB side I'm gonna talk NASCAR at Bristol what more could you possibly want JJ Zachary's and and Rob Friedman both on the show here for today Let's dive on in and get you ready if what should be a stellar weekend This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network in Fandall research My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research join here to kick things off by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round QB You can find his work at late round dot com and be sure as always to check out the late round fantasy football Podcast JJ week number one week number two got off with a bang last night Deandre Swift Going bananas got a lot of scoring from the second quarter on so how you doing today? I'm good. Yeah, I was looking like it was gonna be a typical Thursday night football game You know in the beginning of that that that contest and then you know things things went off It was great. It's great for fantasy and Deandre Swift like you said he looked really really good in that role Yeah, he really did and I think again, it's kind of a situation where we know he's talented. It's always been Getting the volume that's been the issue for him And then you put a guy with talent in that kind of system where you have a rushing quarterback And often someone that's lost in pieces, but it's still very very good and good things are probably gonna happen So it was fun to watch him get full run last night fun to watch You know it hurts kind of you know get back in a rhythm It seemed like after he looked pretty off the first quarter and a half or so It's a fun game overall and I hope kind of a precursor to the rest of the weekend because week one Scoring was pretty rough. It was not rough for tank bigsby. I got a touchdown prop out of him at plus 310 We'll talk about touchdown props later on we'll talk Talk to JJ about his process for week two and much more But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Of course these shows also do go up over on the fendal YouTube page and fendal TV plus if you want to check out fendal TV Plus go to fendal.com slash watch and log in via your fendal account You can also check it out on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku devices For covering the spread the solo shot and the heat check fantasy podcast all on fendal TV plus as well JJ let's talk about week two and I think the key thing for week two is Knowing what to care about for week one data because we actually have data for most of these guys now But it's limited and it's just one game So when you're looking specifically at week one data Which of that data do you view as being stickiest when trying to project week two and going forward? Yeah, you know I would say not a lot is going to be ultra ultra sticky unless we had like an eight nine ten week sample But obviously it's a one week sample so things are going to be volatile But I'll tell you the things that I look at from a statistical standpoint that I think carry over Well, I know carry over more so than others So a lot of people look at like final stat lines or look at you know just general production But instead of doing that I'm looking more at intent and what we saw from coaches and how coaches want to deploy their players You know It's sort of like the preseason and the way that I view the preseason where I'm not really that concerned about how good A player performs or how well a player performs in the preseason. I'm more so concerned about how is he being deployed? Is he uh on passing downs? Is he out there in passing downs? Is he the hurry up back? You know, is he playing the slot? Is he playing the perimeter? That kind of stuff matters a lot and then that that sort of uh goes hand in hand with snap share, right? And so in week one, um, you know There are a lot of situations where production looked a certain way and you might be excited about that production But the snap share did not necessarily line up with that production And I'm going to be more inclined to lean on that snap share because that tells me What the coaches really really want to do and then also, you know within that look within the context of when those players We're seeing touches, right? So good example of that and you know, we'll get into some some of these uh Sort of fluid situations, but a good example of that is sort of like chicago, right where negative game script hits That's really when roshan johnson got the work that he got and got the work done And then offense, you know, it was a really really bad script for a guy like callil herbert, unfortunately Because I liked callil herbert hitting the over last week and his rushing prop Um, but he didn't hit the 10 attempts that I talked about last week. He was not quite there But regardless, um, you know, it's really about intent more than anything else And not really paying too too much attention to what that production said And I think similar want to be the rams the chyron williams where Once that game they were trying to Burn clock positive game script. That's when cam makers got all of his work early on it was the chyron williams show So kind of understanding the situation which that stuff happened and applying that to week two Is going to be the key thing there now you mentioned the fluid situations and There are a lot of them But we did get some data as you mentioned in week number one when you dig into that data Which situations do you think are most fluid and potentially ripe for the attacking when it comes to player props in week two? I think you just mentioned a great one with the rams backfield where Uh, you know, if you look at the final stat line cam makers had more rush attempts than chyron williams did So people might look at that and say oh cam makers is still the guy, right? But uh, that's not really how things went down in the first half chyron williams had 26 snaps on offense cam makers had four williams Out out, uh, routed him had way more routes run than acres did Uh, he was the rb1 in that offense chyron williams was it wasn't until late in the game Did we see camp makers and so you take that game script and you then place it on this the san francisco game And that's highly doubtful that this game script is going to happen against So who looked brilliant in week one against pittsburgh, right? And so if that's the case You know that chyron williams is number one the starter and number two the guy who's catching passes So if that negative game script hits then for the rams, it's going to be more chyron williams and cam makers So that could be a situation where you're not favoring acres and you're hitting more unders for him Uh, you know, there's injuries out there to definitely monitor like austin neckler and how That might affect someone like joshua kelly deandre hopkins is banged up You know treylon berks had a really rough week one, but he did run the most routes for tennessee So obviously keep an eye on some of those injuries and then the the last situation That I think is really interesting is the washington commander's back Uh in in week one, uh brine robinson saw 19 carries Antonio gibson saw three and once again you look at that and you say, oh man, this is the brine robinson show He's the clear rb1 in this offense but Antonio gibson who's had fumbling issues throughout his career But antonio gibson in that game he fumbled in the second quarter and up until that point in the second quarter brine robinson had four carries antonio gibson had three which means after antonio gibson's fumble He didn't carry the ball again for the rest of the game So I do think you know, we've seen this in the past where coaches just uh, you know Put these guys in the doghouse and they don't want to use them for the rest of the game And then the next week hits and things are sort of back to normal and uh, not until he burns you again You know, obviously if antonio gibson puts the ball in the ground again and he loses a fumble Then it's it's gonna be a rough rough scene for him probably for the rest of the season potentially so um You know, I do expect though At least entering the game the intent of that back feel to be more split than what it looked like in week one For sure. And I think the fumble thing is always key It's something I want to keep an eye on for always is identifying when those things occur because like you said we see Dramatic shifts and usage after that back a lot of the time, especially with a guy with fumble history Or when they have a another guy they can turn to pretty heavily So, uh, the washington backfield definitely won to monitor now not all yardage props are up right now over at fangirl sports book changing when you look at the landscape right now Which are yardage props? Do you see the most value in week number two? Yeah, I'm gonna start with bijan robinson his receiving prop. Uh, it's 17 and a half right now I like the over. Um, this is actually not on fandal, but it's on a lot of books I'm assuming it'll be on fandal eventually or hopefully it'll be on fandal eventually So just take a look at that line if it is on there I think that the line, you know, should be probably closer to like 21 ish receiving yards But a lana used bijan robinson Way more than tyler algear in week one as a receiver. He had 18 routes run B or tyler algear had seven Robinson had the second best route participation of any running back in week one oddly travis etn ranked first, of course After not really seeing that much receiving work on 2022 But regardless last week you look at what the falcons did they led the league in running back target share at 53 percent That's not going to maintain throughout the season. So don't expect that high of a running back Unless you know desmond ridder just keeps keeps dumping it off and arthur smith just wants to Stab us constantly in fact with with the way that he's he's approaching that uh, that offense, but um I don't expect that running back target share to continue and maintain because that's way way too high That would be by far an nfl record if something like that were to maintain But you look at this matchup against green bay in week one Chicago dumped it off to their running backs a lot and played it really conservatively likely because because of the matchup and uh, Chicago had a 44 percent running back target share Which was the second highest in football in week one and that's not a common thing For not only a mobile quarterback offense to do but but this offense to do last season It was at like 17 and a half percent for chicago Um, obviously we're working within small sample sizes But I do think that points to at least a potential favorable matchup It's a game where giara alxander is probably going to try to take out either kyle pits or drake london in this contest probably drake london So we could see another week where drake london sees a target and does nothing for our fantasy squads But that all leads me to believe that they might go with a bjohn robinson Um and and even a tyler algear to some degree in the in the passing game and last week Atlanta saw a positive game script against carolina this week They might not be able to see that and if they don't see that We're going to see more bjohn robinson than tyler algear because algear was the one who sort of closed out that game And saw a lot of those second half touches Uh, whereas robinson was the clear cut, you know receiving back. He'll probably play in more catch up mode, etc, etc So I like this line, uh for for robinson to go over And then also the other one that I like Baker mayfield his passing prop on fandal right now is 228 and a half passing yards. I like the under there So ever since baker mayfield's left cleveland, he's played 13 games He's had 13 relevant games. I should say And he's only hit this over three times out of those 13 contests And in those three games his yardage totals have been 230 230 and 235 So he's barely been over this mark basically since he left cleveland, right? I know that chicago is pretty pretty miserable defensively in week one But if you look at what jordan love did in that contest and the peripherals So not just his you know stat line at the end of the day He wasn't as good as the box score showed, you know, I don't want to I don't want to throw shade his way Still excited relatively about love to see what he can do in this offense But he had the fourth worst completion percentage over expected last week, you know against the chicago defense I think big plays are possible which makes this prop, you know a little bit riskier, but um, you know, we have a lot of of information showing us that mayfield just hasn't gotten there Number one in this box team last week was pretty run heavy or at least more run heavy than I think a lot would have expected Going into that game against minnesota And look they didn't do that well through the air and have that many that much volume through the air against this minnesota team um And and you know, you look at what uh Just the offense in general did not break very well against this minnesota team Then you look at what happened last night against uh, philadelphia and philadelphia was it was able to move the ball at will And I know it's a different uh offense and such but I don't think this minnesota offense is one that's going to scare people Throughout the the season and the fact that this tampa bay offense couldn't get that much going And then there's that report that baker mayfield knew uh, what kind of what kind of defense that he was going to It's like if you know what kind of defense you're about to see and you guys still only put up 20 points What does that say about your office also? Don't tell them don't tell people like yeah, right. Yeah, all just kind of like it makes it makes your impressive Your performance looks less impressive. Yeah, like just be like, oh, yeah on the man Like it's not that I'm like soup. Maybe he wants to play at the intelligence angle But like just be like, yeah, I'm not good man. Yeah, exactly. You know intuition Exactly going back to yeah going back to the the bijan situation. I think that team was hilarious last week because They were talking about um, kyle pits, you know, it's ariard share 82 That'll happen when the leading target earner on that team has a negative 3.9 yard adob Which was bijan robinson on his six targets like that is negative I don't know whatever 3.9 times six is like 24 ish negative 24 ariards to the leading target getter Like that that's gonna happen That's just ariard share is weird when you have a high usage running back in the mix So got to take down the grain assault as always Mentioned that last week he hit on tank bigsby plus 310 for an anytime anytime touchdown He will score it on a longer run and they gave it to him once again at the one yard line So jay june look at touchdown props for week number two. What you see in a fandal this week Yeah, so uh, one of them is on fandal a plus 105 But you can actually shop around and get this at plus 155 over on draft kings if you want So there's a big big difference there So there's some nice value and it's for shod white anytime touchdown And I know that this is frightening because week one, you know, super super inefficient This team like I just said they weren't that great offensively and what should have been a fairly plus matchup And then obviously you look at what philadelphia did on the ground against minnesota Last night and the fact that tampa bay couldn't get anything going. That's a little bit scary But you look at rachad white. He was top five in snap share at the position in week one He was top 10 in route participation For all intents and purposes He was a bell cow for the tampa bay offense It's just that he couldn't get that much going and I think it's situational base, right You know this the situation there the offensive line is not good Um, you know, I'm not I'm not saying that this is all rachad white And shan tucker stepped in and saw some touches. Not like he was overly effective either So I you know, I don't think this is only a rachad white thing, but it is Situationally a little bit scary. So I understand if that is a turnoff But this bears defense is beatable You could realistically see a positive game script in this contest or at least maybe a similar script as to what they saw Last last week against minnesota And the bucks were relatively run heavy in week one Which you know, if you're run heavy that does correlate to some degree to how you're scoring your touchdowns When you get close to the end zone So when you get a bell cow back a lot of times you're going to see The anytime touchdown props and that like, you know, if it's an average bell cow like a rachad white, you know In that like plus 100 plus 120 range you can get that plus 155. I'm going to take that value I would take that every time I did while you were talking actually Uh Because my phone's right here. I might as well take advantage. Uh, any other touchdown props you like this week? Yeah, there's one more for you. This one's on fandal. Uh, it's at plus 360 So it's a little bit of a deeper one. Uh, but I like jake furgusson as an anytime touchdown this week Um, he had really underrated peripherals in week one He ended up tied for the league lead and targets within the opponent's 10 yard line this past week Uh, I think it was tyreek hillan jacobi miers who were tied with him With three he had the second highest target here at tight end behind only zacherts He just didn't produce because the cowboys Had a script where they didn't have to throw the ball a whole lot So now they get the jets the jets have have the secondary that can that can lock down Some wide outs as a perimeter guys. Um, so I I think jake furgusson's actually not just a great play from a streaming perspective in fantasy But at plus 360 given his peripherals in week one, I like them a lot With those corners the jets have they're gonna funnel things towards the middle of the field And I think that's kind of the way things will work there brandon cooks is banged up now Not sure if he'll go which could funnel more work towards furgusson Uh, the cowboys, you know, you want to target tight ends in Situations where the team is a pretty high implied total and despite the matchup the cowboys do have One of those pretty high implied totals There's I think it makes a lot of sense to go at furgusson here again plus 360 for a guy With the role the underlying numbers he had last week I think that's that's gonna be pretty hard to pass up That is jj zacheris and as mentioned you can find him on twitter at late round qb You find his work at late round calm and on the late round fantasy football podcast jj. Good luck to you in week two Let's hit another winner With furgusson or with rashad white and we'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks buddy Alrighty again, make sure you check out all of jj's work over at late round calm We'll have them back here again next week to talk more player props But first we got to dive back in to the streets of major league baseball because rob freeman is here pitching ninja To break down mlb and rob pennant races are heating up And I think you could view this two ways because it's great to have pennant races going on but that also means We're getting down there to the end of the year Now I know that like the offset is that we get playoff baseball pretty soon, but like I'm starting to feel that like sadness inch in how you doing today I'm feeling a little sadness too. No, I'm fired up like it's good baseball And I for some reason like strikeouts seem to be a little more predictable now Because you got a good feel of who's going deep and who's not I feel better about things, but yeah, I mean the season's almost it's coming to an end I mean, you should feel better. You had a you had your strikeout parley prop hit like three days in a row last week So what's the magic sauce here? I have no idea. You know what? It's the same strategy I did when I'd lose 15 in a row. So like sometimes you just can't give up That's the thing right plugging away if you think you know it, you know it and it's just some of its luck I think with baseball we never actually know what we think we know That's the key thing to keep in mind. Make sure you find rob on twitter at pitching ninja He's on peacock mlb mlb on fox fandall sportsbook as well And uh, it's been a it's fun and fun trip so far But rob sell a lot of good baseball at three plates We look at the strikeout prop market over at fandall sportsbook Which guys stand out to use baby being a bit undervalued here this week So I I have a four leg parley today and it's partly because I couldn't like eliminate folks And I was actually almost gonna wait until we were on here. Maybe you could talk some sense to me into me I'm not gonna talk you out of one I can maybe talk you into a couple but like talking you out of one I feel like that setting you up to have like that would have been the magical leg that would have made a hit So I gotta know my place here Yeah, I mean that is literally my philosophy today is I couldn't drop one of these guys So I was like, you know what just skirt we're gonna go for four. Why not love it. All right Where are we starting here? I am going to start with david peterson who I think has figured things out a little bit I like him against a high strikeout team Um So we're going go we'll go david peterson for six k's or more on that one That's actually not a bad number because over five and a half for peterson is minus 106 and with peterson Strikeouts have never been the issue. He's been able to get strikeouts. It's been everything else and making that work So when you're watching him, what have you seen from peterson recently that leaves you to believe that he's turned a corner here That's sustainable So and I don't know if this is mental or not to be honest, but he changed his glove position Um Raising it up a little bit. So he's no longer has as much movement in his glove which seems to sink things in there but It's hard to say like to me Every little maneuver you make some of it is psychological Some of it isn't I don't really care as long as he strikes out a bunch of people don't matter to me Go deep in a game and have a good game Uh peterson again five and a half is minus 105 or 106 a fan dual sportsbook taking on The Cincinnati reds hunter green also in that game. So uh, that'll be a fun game to watch Which other strikeout props you like rob? I have justin steel for six k's or more He's been on a streak of over six k's and I think he's got a fairly good match up today You know the whole si young push I couldn't talk myself out of it. So I'm gonna talk myself into it Well, we talk a lot about like playoff motivation and that matters to the cubs, obviously But also like the si young thing matters too. Like that's a pretty big boost for him there as far as like motivation. I got my cubs hat over here. I could I could I kind of got cubs colors here. Yeah, we'll have the same color schemes here for the rest of the show I like it But uh, I think that you know, you're kind of seeing him Turn into like the workhorse leader of this pitching staff down the stretch And I think that Given some of the things they've had this year They kind of needed a guy like that to step up and it seems like he really has Absolutely has and I think he's also uh up to strikeouts a little bit recently too So that's one reason why I really like him I like his stuff too and I and to me traditionally if you look at his numbers, he is a traditional Probably more of a traditional case than blake snel does at the si young even though blake snel's got to be the favorite Oh, yeah, for sure. And with steel, I think the positive is He gets strikeouts, but he does not let up hard contact Which is true for snel too, honestly, but like uh with steel it means he's probably not going to get like nerfed and so like That to me is reassuring. You're going to get length man He's facing the diamond back for tonight over five and a half is minus 130. I think that is really fun as well Okay, two down peterson and steel over five and a half where we going next I'm going with erin nola for six k's or more and I I don't know like I am stuck on nola generally and I think he I'm seeing signs of him figuring stuff out even if he doesn't I think it's a pretty good matchup forum and and six k's is ultimately doable for him too So I couldn't talk myself out of nola. So I'm talking myself into nola Nola over five and a half also minus 106 the exact same number as with david peterson and I feel like with nola It's kind of like you said it's the inconsistency where he has these stretches where he looks like the best pitcher in baseball And he has stretches where he's you know letting up line drives left and right So when you're watching him, is there anything you can like Pick up on that lets you say, okay a good streak is coming or okay Maybe want to pedal off here for a seconds Yeah, to me It's really the shape of his pitches when I see his his knuckle curve shaping right to me That's when I know he's going to have a good day Um, and it has varied like you can really pick it up like instantly If he struggles he tends to stay around for a while So, you know accumulating six k's doesn't seem like a big ask for him But yeah, like usually to me you can figure it out pretty quickly how he's looking Although he does tend to have that inning where he kind of implodes a little bit too. So Well, luckily he's facing a team that you know, they've they've struggled a bit recently in the cardinals So uh, nola over five and a half is minus one of six Let me add peterson here so we can get the uh full four leg parlay after we add this last one Go to peterson in the meds game. Okay over five and a half or peterson Still minus one of six. All right, three legs down. What's our final leg for this four leg parlay rob? I am going with tarik scoogle because I love tarik scoogle stuff Think it's another really good matchup form. I actually think the tiger's pitching staff is shaping up a little bit too So I'm low key a little bit on there, you know a little bit in favor of their pitching Um, and I just like him for this. I think his stuff is filthy Well, tarik scoogle, I think ever since he came back from injury I like I came into the year with like decent expectations for him coming off the injury because he looked really good pre injury last year and you're okay You're like young guy got some hope like you said the pitching staff for the holes kind of done some pretty fun stuff But I feel like even with decently high expectations Is it fair to say scoogle has exceeded those since he came back? I think so and even if it's not numbers just purely looking at his stuff. His stuff is gross. Yeah, so uh like I I'm a big fan of tarik scoogle. I think he's he holds himself to a high standard And I just like him. I mean, I I liked resoulson yesterday, too I think resoulson's got pieces to be a really good starter. So, you know, we're seeing a little theme here with the tigers Which is nice. Uh, yeah, exactly exceeding expectations. That's kind of what you want That's a credit to the pitching staff because the pitching staffs matter. Yeah, absolutely. Well, they're the most important part of baseball Obviously Who would you like I had a hard time eliminating any of these guys, which is why I went with all four Okay, so we have steel against arizona nola against the cardinals peterson against the reds scoogle against the angels Okay, I'm in the same spot as you where it's tough. Um, so that that's the primary thing I think arizona occasionally can do a good job of avoiding strikeouts. Yep. So Biggest pause would be steel but not a big enough pause where I'd want to take it out if that makes sense Yeah, so that's what I was I was experimenting with taking him out And I was like, I don't feel comfortable with it. Like he's on a streak of k-6 or more I'm just going with my gut here. We're gonna do it and I almost had coal in there too because I think coal You know going revenge game exactly. I can see him coming up big today and for a daily strikeout leader He's tough to be and the Yankees are playing hard. I know like the season has not gone how they want But like they're playing hard and that's what you need for a prop like this You need to ensure the team is playing hard and that's not a concern at the Yankees right now I think they have motivation to kind of prove that this year Is it's going to be a blip on the radar? And he's got double motivation, right? Like he's he's going on his former home mound And he's you know wants to put a stamp on his young season So to me he is not going to let up That's a team that is capable of being dominated to and coal is the type of guy to dominate them I was just going to go up to eight k's on him But I just I didn't want to add another leg where something to go wrong. So sure So it's like it's 20 the fact that he's Derek or Garrett Cole. It's 10 matchup It is 70 revenge game rob. Like that is that's the formula here tonight for me I think so too. And that's why like he's going to be dangerous for the for you know the daily k leader Seems like He's the guy to beat. There's other guys that could catch him, but I mean, I think that's he's going to be tough to beat. So I can't talk you out of one of these legs rob. I'm sorry I thought about it. I'm feeling better I'm feeling better about myself But that four leg partly if you tie those four strike out props together plus 10 45 now Obviously the implied odds of hitting there are under 10. So keep that in mind. Obviously when you are Allocating how much you want to bet on this because you got to keep realistically in mind the odds This doesn't I hit 90% and like that's okay Because if you think that the actual odds of it hitting are higher than plus 10 45 You're good to go But those four legs just in steel over five and a half minus 130 Aaron nola over five and a half at minus 106 and david peterson We're five and a half minus 106 and tariff scuba over five and a half at minus 140 Now you did talk briefly about Garrett Cole there I agreed probably be the primary guy as far as the strikeout leader now that prop is not up as of yet I mean, you know, it's it's tough this time of year when we don't have guys who are scheduled To start as of yet But anybody else you think could be like a dark horse for that kind of market or is it really Just see where Cole's number is and go from there I would see where Cole's number is like if I mean he's gonna be the favorite is my guess and probably a pretty good favorite So if you want to look for other guys, I mean take a look at bobby miller. Maybe like I think he's got a nice little match up there He's you know, again, they're headed down the stretch. He wants to put his stamp on You know, hey, I'm the man on this staff Right. I think he's I think that's a pretty good pick And then any of the guys that I that I picked in the in the k prop parlay is pretty Capable of winning but yeah, I mean, I think it's Cole's to lose, right? Yeah, I think that's where I'd be too in miller. We've been on targeting the mariners with strikeout props pretty much It's really not fair the poor mariners they get picked off. There were no twins in this one rob For the first time, uh, jesse schultz. I guess that's why um, so like, you know schultz fine pitcher Just not a big strikeout guy, but uh, that's the first time we had the mariners the obligatory mariners one But no twins for the first time in a while. So uh deviating from expectations there. Exactly. Yep Alrighty rob It was fun to have you on as always you can find rob on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on peacock mlb mlb on fox and on fangirls sportsbook as well rob. Good luck to you Let's keep that parlay streak. You're getting it back going once again for tonight. Enjoy the baseball We'll talk to you once again next week. Absolutely great as always Alrighty, it's always fun to pick rob's brain and get these insights about, you know, glove location pitch Pitch shape and stuff like that. So it's great to have insights like that because they're not insights that I have So pleasure to have him on as always to educate me on some fantastic Pitcher insights. We're going to dive into some nascar and bristol here to close out the show in just one second But first get ready for the nfl season with incredible offers from fandall america's number one sports book right now new customers Kid bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets guaranteed Plus all customers who have bet who bet five dollars will get one hundred dollars off nfl sunday ticket from youtube and youtube tv Now is the best time to join fandall the app It's easy to use and you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and more fandall Official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas dark casino llc first on my real money wager only Ten dollar first deposit required bonus issued as non-ladrobo bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt We're strict in the policy terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee and virginia call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or is the ccp g dot or slash chag connecticut 1 800 9 with it in indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 to visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at oregon maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia or call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline m a dot org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 support in massachusetts call 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open line new york nfl sunday ticket offer ends 9 18 23 that's monday no refunds terms and embargoes apply $100 off nfl sunday ticket not youtube tv youtube tv base plan required to watch youtube tv Redemption what requires a google account and current form of payment Use is excluded now with the transition to nascar gotta put my nascar chicago street race hat back on We'll go, you know, we're still in spirit with justin steele and these chicago cubs But let's talk here about nascar because it is one of my favorite weekends of the year We had the nascar craftsman truck series race last night and we've got the cup series saturday But tonight's mixinity god thing started off with a nice little hit last night at quarry heim I got him plus 550 he was 5 to 1 a fandals sportsbook. I was above that 18.7 percent So starting the weekend off on a good note. I don't have any outrides I like for cup as of now not a lot of value. I'm seeing I have some value on some longer shots that I can't quite talk myself into so I'm going to add there once we see practice on friday, but It will update those in the betting guide over at fandal research go to fandal.com slash research to find that The betting guide for the bristol night race There is one bet I like as of right now at fandals sportsbook for this race So that's going to chase brisco He is currently plus 340 to finish inside the top 10 at fandals sports But he's actually one of the long shots where I was referencing where I value on him to win Tough to get there, but I think a top 10 is pretty realistic My model has brisco's top 10 odds at 24.7 percent his implied odds at plus 340 are 22.7 percent now The cup series in this race is using It's intermediate rules package and that's a concern because brisco has been a back marker in that package For most of this year. He's been one of the worst drivers in the entire sport But he did show life at darlington was a bit better there that used the same rules package And speed matters even less in bristol than it did there and I know a lot of faith and steward haas racing's equipment to suddenly have speed so The downsides of brisco are lesser here than they are on most of the tracks that uses package and brisco does have a good history at bristol He had an 11th place average running position here last year It was 16th in his rookie season ends. He has a bunch of good finishes here in extended I think he had three consecutive podium finishes to Close out his extended series career at this track. So I'm on board with this one. It is risky due to The runs that brisco has had in this package but I think he has skills on shorter tracks his equipment won't matter as much this weekend so Chase brisco to me a plus 340 a mighty fine bet when it comes to the nascar cup series I'm actually going to talk about the same team when we talk about the nascar extended series the steward haas racing And that is where I actually do find value in an outright that is cool custer to win He is plus 850 at vandal sportsbook and you might be able to get a nine out there I did earlier on this week, but custer's still a value plus 850 for me I've custer at 13.2 to win his implied odds at plus 850 are 10.5 percent and My model being high on custer has as much to do with john hunter nema check as it does with custer himself and that's because nema check Not uh, you know, he's been the dominant car this year He's had six wins so far two more than anybody else But he hasn't had the same dominance when he's running on concrete not just this year in xinony because that's a two-way sample But beyond that as well nema check has run 25 concrete races across nascar's top three series so trucks xinony and cup And nema check has led laps in just one of those 25 and he has not won any of them Custer is very different. He's had good runs in bristol He's a winner in dover in the xinony series and he had good runs at dover in nashville this year at xinony both of which are concrete So you could make that same case for just an all-guyer I used to call him king concrete because He won nashville last year and generally has been very good on concrete in xinony I just like custer's form more than I like all guys right now so nema check Vulnerable on this track type which opens up more win equity for the entire field and custer has done well on concrete I think that adds up to making custer a good bet Again, he's plus 850 a fandal. I think that's a very fair number And if you're looking for a bet for tonight's race custer would be my favorite at plus 850 Let me just check chanler smith 14 to 1 you can get him a bit longer than that elsewhere So not quite there actually do show value on dale and hard jr at 35 to 1 Maybe that's a fluke in the model, but I remember on 3.7 percent So that's above where his his betting odds are I'm not taking it But it is kind of fun to see dale jr back in the field once again for this week That's all we got here for this week on covering the spread one extent a big Thank you once again to jjzak recent and rob freeman Check out jj on twitter at late round qb and check out rob on twitter at pitching ninja I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n at es you can also follow fandal research At fandal research if you want to find any of our shows from this week go to fandal dot com slash watch check out fandal tv Can also download the app on apple tv amazon fire and roku as well To get all of your covering the spread shows along with the covering the spread podcast feed and the fandal youtube page Want to thank you all for tuning in have a fantastic sports weekend. Good luck on your bets And we'll talk to you once again monday to preview a pair of monday night football games This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network