 Thank you for the invitation. So I'm going to present quickly a paper that has a lot of descriptive data at the beginning. Marcel already mentioned a little bit of this, and this is mostly for people who are not aware of sort of how Latin America compares to the rest of the world in terms of violence. And then I'll focus on sort of the research agenda that I'm proposing in this paper. I don't have clear findings on any of the many hypotheses that I'm going to mention, but I think we need to start a more serious research agenda on the impact of violence on inequality. Okay, so there is an old question that people have studied in economics, in sociology, in political science, and it's how inequality can lead to violence. And you have all heard about the many hypotheses that explain why it leads actually to both criminal and political violence. But we haven't really explored too much how the opposite relationship is possible. How do we go from violence to more inequality? So the goal of this paper is to start thinking about this. Why does this make sense? Well, the first one is that we know based on research on many fields beyond the social sciences, so including public health, for example, that violence has profound effects on key developmental outcomes. That's a fact. But we also know that violence doesn't affect everyone with the same probability. And especially in highly unequal societies, the more vulnerable populations are much more likely to be affected by all types of violence. So if we combine these two facts, right, what we already know about the impacts of violence on developmental outcomes and the fact that vulnerable communities and vulnerable individuals face different likelihoods of being exposed to violence, then it makes sense to wonder if violence is actually amplifying the different forms of inequality that we already find in these countries. So in Latin America and the Caribbean, it's very important to question whether we're also getting more inequality and we are sort of being unable to reduce inequality in part because of the high levels of violence that we have in the region. So to give you a sense of what I'm thinking about and sort of what is the underlying theoretical approach, we can think of a community or a country where you have some people who are better off. This is their level of human development and I'm not thinking just about income. I'm thinking about development in a more holistic way. And here are the words of. And then we know that violence is much more likely to impact those who are worse off. And in addition to that, we know that those who are worse off usually have fewer resources to respond to the violence. And so the effects of the same violent event can actually harm vulnerable people much more than those who are not as vulnerable. So what we end up is with a wider gap in human development between those who are better off and those who are worse off. So what I'm proposing to do is just taking into account what we already know about the dynamics of violence in Latin America. And a lot of them are very similar in other continents in the world. And what we already know about the effects of violence on distinct human development outcomes, we can derive hypotheses on how violence may be exacerbating the gap that we have in human development. And importantly, I'm thinking both about interpersonal inequality and about group inequality. So I think here it's very important also to think about subnational inequality, how violence may actually help us or will help prevent us from reducing the gap between rural communities, certain neighborhoods, and the rest of the country. So what I'm going to do is very quickly tell you a little bit about the patterns of violence in Latin America. Marcela already mentioned a few. So I'm not going to tell you everything that you will see on the slides just to make sure that I don't speak for longer than I'm supposed to. And then I'll elaborate on a few hypotheses on how these different forms of inequality may be exacerbating, sorry, these different forms of violence may be exacerbating, the specific types of inequality in human development. So what are the patterns of violence in the region? And I'm going to focus mostly on the 21st century. I'm going to close the door because thank you. There's so much noise. So first we all know this is historically a very violent region. In the second half of the previous century, most of it was political violence. That's not the case anymore. Political violence has really decreased. And what we see now is a lot of criminal violence. We also have problems with social violence. And we will see how the available data, which has a lot of problems, show Latin America in comparison to the world. I'm going to focus on these three types of violence. Marcela already mentioned them. So I'm not going to define the concepts again. But I start with homicides because it's really hard to classify homicides in one of these three categories. In Latin America, we know that most homicides are linked to criminal violence right now, but that's not always the case. And it's really hard based on the data to disentangle where the homicides are coming from. So the main graph that you need to know is that all the top, this is sub regions. All of these is Latin America and the Caribbean. This is Africa, right? So Central America is the most violent region in the world based on homicides. Then it's South America and then it's the Caribbean. We know there is a lot of variation, of course, across countries, a lot of subnational variation, which is very important. As I said, right now, in the last couple of decades, most of the homicides are linked to criminal violence, especially to the drug trade, which is just a huge developmental issue for the region. Homicides are concentrated in slums, in large cities and in peripheral areas in the rural regions, especially where you have illicit economies. Criminal violence. So as I said, most of it is linked to the drug trade, especially cocaine, both where it is produced and especially where it's trafficked. Usually we see a lot of violence when there is a lot of competition between these groups or between the groups and the state. And some of the violence also comes from violence within the organizations. We also have, of course, common delinquency and this type of common crime is very high in people's minds in Latin America based on household data and surveys. There is a lot of criminal governance and it's something that I would like to talk more about. We don't have time, but in a very large number of neighborhoods and towns, criminal groups become de facto rulers and they impact a lot of the dimensions of daily life. And these, as I will argue later, can really increase the gaps in inequality in human development. These are other forms of criminal violence that we have in the region. I don't have time to go over them, but a lot of these have really, really high rates when you compare Latin America to the world. Who are the victims of these violence? Mostly young men, that's a fact for the world, but we also know that poor individuals, sorry, people in poor communities are more affected by the presence of armed actors and their activities, including their lethal violence. We know that rural and urban preferences are more affected and they are more vulnerable in every other sense. And we also know that ethnic minorities, gender minorities tend to be more effective. Only robberies may affect the wealthy more, but even then there is mixed evidence. Political violence. So there is a huge decline, as I mentioned before, but we still have political violence. Protests, for example, have increased a lot since 2013 in the region, although only a small portion of it are violent. A lot of state violence, so police brutality, I won't go through each of the data that you can see here, but it is one of the regions that suffer really high levels of police brutality. Extraditional killings, especially in Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Venezuela, a lot of violence against human rights defenders, social leaders that are also working on environmental issues, and this is extending to new countries as time goes by. Here you can see the ones where you have the highest rates, and again, this is the highest rate in the world of lethal violence against these kinds of activists. These stories shouldn't be state violence, this is other forms of political violence, attacks against journalists, again, with Mexico leading, Colombia following, we have the highest rates in the world. And then of course you have the violence that has been associated to the armed conflict in Colombia. Who are the victims of political violence? Ethnic minorities, the poor victims of state violence, there is not good data at all, but based on what we know, young, poor, and ethnic minorities seem to be more affected. Social and domestic violence. We have horrible positions in the world again, right? So third highest rates of sexual violence by non-partners, second highest of sexual or physical violence by partners. The Americas as a whole, so that includes North America, has the second highest feminicide rates in the world. I mean, we are a disaster, it's everywhere, right? Violence against children, highest rates of homicides of adolescents in the world, and a lot of high levels of violent discipline at home. What, how about other population groups? Again, gender and ethnic minorities, the data are really, really bad, but the data that is out there shows that Latin America is also doing really bad. Who are the victims in addition to, you know, of all the social violence, as I said before, the minorities? And again, I want to emphasize that the data are really, really bad, but everything you look where there are some comparisons, some victimization data finds the same vulnerable communities and individuals being much more likely to be victimized. Okay, so that was a lot of information, but basically, I hope I convinced you that it's a huge issue for the region, right? So how do we go from violence to inequality? Juan, how am I doing on time? Okay, thank you. Okay, so the first thing I have to say is that the literature on the impacts of violence on human development is very scattered, and we work in very different niches that don't really talk to each other, so this is based on a huge literature review that I'm sure is not complete, but this includes work in public health, economic, sociology, education, right? Where they are trying to look at how violence impacts these different outcomes, but we need to start to sort of put this knowledge together and try to see what the societal impact on inequality can be. I'm going to focus on, sorry, I already said this, I'm going to focus on these four specific domains of human development, of course, there are more. I think these are very important. The first one is human security and basic rights, human development, health, education, and income, huge domains. The third one I bring together in one category, political participation, social capital, and democracy, and the last one is the quality of local governance. So a lot in four minutes, but we'll see. So the first one is human security. So as you can imagine, all these forms of violence affect just the right to life, and very basic human rights. I want to emphasize that it's not just the effect of being afraid, of being harmed, or of dying. It's also how people adapt their behavior to avoid potential violence, right? So for example, women may not take some jobs if they require that they pass through certain neighborhoods or that they avoid taking, for example, classes at night. So that can affect freedom in ways that, in turn, affect many other areas of their life. Again, here, if we know that the poor are more likely to be affected, then the effect is going to be even stronger because they cannot flee. And even if they flee, we know based on a lot of research that their economic well-being and their rights are affected where they arrive, right? We also know that because violence is affecting this gender and ethnic minorities more, they end up with fewer rights than the rest of the population so that gap is being increased by violence. Criminal governance, I think, is critical, especially as we learn that a large population in the region is living under these groups because then what you have is people living in these local dictatorships with really a very different set of rights and liberties. Women's health, there is a lot of research showing how different types of violence against women affect mental health, physical health, which in turn is going to affect their ability to function, their ability to stay in the job market, and so on and so forth. Children's health, a lot of research showing the impact of violence on children's education and their future earnings, so of course, it then translates into income as well. Violence not only affects children, it also affects families, teachers, communities, and that in turn affects children. Health, I already mentioned women's health, but there is a wider literature on how violence affects health of every victim, and there is also literature on community level outcomes because of violent events affecting not just the person or the household, but the community at large. For all of these types of human development, what we find is that if we know that violence is affecting vulnerable individuals and communities more and that violence has all these implications, this means that this gap in these developmental outcomes is just going to grow as you get more exposure to violence. Income, there is a lot of research also showing effects at the individual level, which then translates into widening gaps, and there is also effects specifically on women and their individual income, and I want to emphasize also that the macro level research on how violence affect economic growth can also translate into reduced, sorry, into more inequality when that decrease in GDP is affecting reforms, institutional changes that can actually implement restoration policies. Okay, and let me finish with the last two outcomes. So the first one is political participation, social capital, and democracy. We don't know a lot, but we know a lot on some specific outcomes that I am aggregating in this category. So the first one is that violence can really reduce political participation on social capital in the short term, but there are many papers and studies that show that in the long term, actually there may be a positive effect. I think it's still a big debate, what are sort of the stable long-term effects of violence on these outcomes. It's important to think about how violence can also affect the supply side of democracy, the quality of candidates, competition between candidates, and then who ends up governing. And as I said before, when there are these alliances between armed actors and governors, when they rule, that can also affect the democratic process, the legitimacy of democracy, and affect just how local governments end up functioning. If social capital is affected, then of course you have these cascading effects on many other outcomes that require social capital in its different forms. And then finally, the quality of local governance. There are very few studies on this, but I think it's a very important research agenda. How is the quality of local governments, of municipalities, being affected by violence? A lot of the well-being of human development in Latin America, especially where there is a strong decentralization, depends on municipal governments. If violence is really affecting the ability of these local governments to function, then the distance between the quality of public goods provision, the quality of institutions that can favor productivity, and other regions of these countries is just going to grow. So we're living behind the people who have been vulnerable in many ways, victimized, and then now because of the victimization are less able to achieve good outcomes. And I'm not going to conclude just to give the time. Thank you.