 Hello everyone. Welcome to another capsule, International Relations capsule for the Shankar IS Academy. Today we want to review the last 100 days of the war in Ukraine. Last week, the war completed 100 days and there is no certainty as to where it is going. The only certainty they say is the uncertainty of it. I have a suspicion that it is more and more looking like the pandemic. We think the pandemic is over and then it comes up back again. It threatens everybody for a while and resets. Finally, mankind has come upon a way to live with the pandemic. I get the feeling that we are going in the same direction with Ukraine war, which is not good news. Because a prolonged war in that region will have disastrous consequences not only for that region but also for the rest of the world. So the pandemic is fatal and so is the brain war for the entire world. Pandemic at least we can seek some solace in saying that we don't know the science of it. We don't know how it was created. We don't know how it will grow. But in this case, it is living human beings who are responsible for it. One person perhaps is the most responsible for it. And won't that be possible for that one person or many other people to get together and solve this problem? Hopes were raised here and there because the targets of the war kept changing. Starting from just simply de-naxifying Ukraine as President Putin claimed earlier and also giving some stability to Donbass, which in any case is under Russian control. So it started with something like that. First it was just the security and nobody believed that the war would happen. Then we had this declaration that it was necessary for them to Russia to control the Donbass region and also give recognition to the two republics which have been formed. And then we suddenly saw satellite pictures of how many? Something like columns, 64 kilometers long columns of Russian forces moving towards Kiev. And this is a large number of soldiers, 64 kilometers and they are gradually and slowly moving towards Kiev and the whole world said this is it. Now, one hour, two hours, three hours, one day, three days, four days, they are going to seize Kiev and there will be some kind of a Russian puppet government installed there and the war would end. No such luck. Somehow these columns disappeared and obviously it was because of the resistance, very strong resistance put up by Ukraine. So world's second largest army is facing some kind of a small state and everybody thought this was a David and Goliath affair. David the slim, weak, young boy facing a huge child and the results would be known. What else could happen? David would be killed by this. But again, this has shown that modern warfare, these are difficult things to imagine because of machinery and equipment that they have. Ukrainians have been able to hold back all these columns of Soviet troops. Then we saw that the setback of the Russians was clear and resistance by Ukraine appeared to be strong. So then we began expecting that instead of Russia sweeping through Ukraine, they might declare a ceasefire and start negotiations. So that was the first stage of the war. It looked very much possible because Russia was in a bind. They were losing lots of soldiers, lots of generals even and therefore it appeared as though this so-called military operation will be very extensive for Russia. Of course, we do not hear any dissonant voices in Russia so we do not know whether it is President Putin personally or he has this entire political behind him. We should suspect that he has and therefore that stage when the two countries could start negotiations because negotiations taking place here and then but nothing substantial or nothing was expected to happen. And so that disappeared and then started this horrible, horrible bombing in different parts of Ukraine. It did not appear as though they were trying to conquer a particular city. They probably tried Kiev and found that it was impossible to do so and a lot of damage was made including nuclear reactors and so on. So they adopted a different kind of strategy of attacking whatever target was possible without a specific objective, which city are they looking for? And that process according to the UN Human Rights Commissioner, 4,183 people were killed, 5,014 injured and 6.9 million Ukrainians went as refugees to Europe. And so this very severe loss on both sides made the Russians perhaps thinking and they could have easily tried for something else other than a total surrender of Ukraine. That is when they started the bombarding of Mariupol and the surrounding areas. So Kiev was relatively quiet. While this Mariupol, they focused very much on it. And they said that if we will, Mariupol will be able to gain access, land access to the Crimean Peninsula, which the Russians had in fact occupied in 2014. And if they do that, they could also gain by refusing access to the ocean or Ukraine. So we saw, we thought that the objective had changed and they skirted a cave and went in the direction of Mariupol where very severe battle was fought. But a large number of Ukrainians saw refugees, refugees, refugees in a steelworks as hostile steelworks became a symbol of resistance against the Russian invasion. And many were caught in that steelworks, injured, hurt, dying, poor, hungry. But they put up a resistance. And suddenly somehow Russia decided to let them go. But where they went and whether they are well or where they were killed in the process or whatever we do. But at least they left that area. And therefore, what we are seeing is what is called a war of attrition. This means a war which has no direct objective in sight. We are generally looking around for weak spots here and there in order to weaken the enemy, both sides are trying to do that. So we are, the two countries are, even though they are not equal in size or strength, the two are locked in a battle for which there is no immediate relief. How did the two countries assess their chances after the 100 days of war? The president of Ukraine always very effusive, always very optimistic, always very cheerful. He declared that Ukraine has defended itself for 100 days successfully and assured his people that victory will be ours. So he was a nationalistic kind of propaganda. And I must say in his favor that he did not go hide anywhere. He's always in the open. He's always in front leading the army from the front and giving the people a lot of confidence that he will be able to pull them through this crisis. So that is what Zelensky is thinking. Russia, when he was, Russia was asked, isn't this a disaster for you? They said that certain results have been achieved. So just as Zelensky is optimistic, Russia is also optimistic. Everybody knows that Russia has lost this war in a way. But they started saying that they have some limited or some certain results have been achieved. And the example given was the liberation of Donetsk and Luhansk, those two republics. And then when talking about it, Mr Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia said that this is for us an unconditional priority. So when they won Mariupol and was able to settle Donetsk-Luhansk provinces, they started claiming that there is victory for us. And that's a good sign. So if they say that, okay, Mariupol we have taken from there, we get a land bridge towards Crimea. And Donetsk and Luhansk have been liberated. They have independent countries. So, but the total control of the Donbas region and containing Ukraine from the east and securing a land bridge to Crimea and denying Ukraine access to the sea. So Russia has achieved many things, what can claim. But what was their objective? Was it their objective initially? We don't know. So again there is a possibility, but President Putin shows no sign of ceasing hostilities and battles are raging in different parts of the world. And that gives us the suspicion that he has something more than what he's claiming or saying that he wants to accomplish. And that is not very easy to find. We know he has been wanting to roll back the loss of the Soviet Union. If he could afford it, he would bring back the old Soviet Union by fighting against every independent republic. So if that is the objective, then there will be no end to the war. Because the US and NATO on the other side, apart from Zelensky, do not want to fight Putin directly, that we know. They have not fighting him. They are fighting him in two ways. One to strengthen Ukraine, give it unlimited amounts of weapons and missiles and guns. And giving them support in terms of food and other items. And even more than that strengthening the sanctions to inflict damage on Russia and this weaken it. But the damage has been done, not only to Russia, but also to all its neighboring countries. And the US and the war has united the US and NATO. And also the UK has also joined them, the UK in spite of Brexit. So they had out of European Union, they are still members of NATO. And their military collaboration with NATO has been strengthened. Then Germany and Italy have multiplied their defence expenditure. They were quite comfortable and living a peaceful life. But they realized that this is a risk that they cannot afford and therefore they are ready to continue their war by proxy. And they are hoping they seem ready to continue their proxy war in Ukraine and try to strangle Russia through economic sanctions. So they seem to be banking on a Ukrainian triumph and possibly a regime change in Russia rather than in Ukraine. And many people wonder that there could be moments against Putin inside Russia itself. And there are signs of Russia facing deep recession in the economy because of the war and also erosion of the economic potential of the country. So this way, both are at a disadvantage. So the war is not going to end very soon. But what is happening to the rest of the world in the meantime? They are facing a slow death. They are not fighting any war. No bombs are being thrown at them. But slowly and steadily, crisis is grasping, grabbing the world very far away from Ukraine. Countries in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia, they are facing two major crises. One is the price rise of fuel, diesel, gas, etc. And the other is poverty and famine. And an economic collapse. Of course, people say famine is not possible because there is food available in the world, it's a mathematical distribution. But that is the problem, wheat is getting decayed in Ukraine. It's not being allowed to ship it out, even though there are plenty of grain there. So possibility of extreme poverty and famine in the least developed countries in Africa. The West normally comes to the rescue of developing countries. The West is preoccupied with the war and their own anxiety that NATO should not lose. And therefore, the kind of interest that the West used to take in crisis in the developing world has stopped. No country in Europe is talking about Sri Lanka or any other country which is a difficult. Even though the IMF and the World Bank have to support them. But the Americans or the NATO countries have no time to attend to this and give them assistance or help. So this has actually created a serious problem for the developing world because they cannot expect a global recovery from the situation here. And the recovery that it expected from the pandemic has also run into difficulties. Because Sri Lankans did not have remittances, they did not have exports, they did not have tourism. So in all this, the global recovery that was expected after the pandemic has not taken place simply because of the lack of attention to them. And this re-adjustment that they were hoping to make after the pandemic has run into problems because unpredictable things are happening in their countries. And so to engage in a costly and protracted re-adjustment program to the new realities has become difficult. So it is in the poor countries far and wide who were fervently wish for the end of the war. It is not the Russians, it is not the Ukrainians, it is not NATO, it is not the US which want the war to end. It is the poor people in the rest of the world including India. Of course I don't have to tell you about India's position. India has consistently urged peace and predicted that no one will be a winner in this war. Mr Modi said that in so many books. I know there will be no winners in this war so it is better to stop it and engage in negotiations. And India is caught between this legacy relationship with Russia on the one hand and their new quad relationship with the United States. Australia and Japan. So there is infinite surprise being expressed in these countries as to why India is not fulfilling the requirements of being a quad member. Because even now when Americans talk about India they say our quad member but they think that by joining the quad we are qualitatively a different nation. And therefore when it comes to other issues they expect us to behave like a quad member. But we are increasingly talking about our own interests and also we are increasingly talking about lack of interest of the West in the problems of the East or the problems of the South. Because nobody cares for Afghanistan. Nobody cares for the Ladakh situation. Nobody is talking about China, how to rescue India from Chinese expansionism. Nothing. Everybody is focused on this global recession and global calamity that happened. And it looks as though China is the only one which does not seem to be very concerned about us. Because they are continuing to do a lot of business. And the other group of people who are happy with the war are the billionaires of the world. Do you know that the wealth of the billionaires of the world is more than doubled through the pandemic. When everybody's income dwindled, the richest persons in the world almost double their income and their wealth during the pandemic. So probably they have tasted blood and they think that the war would also give them that opportunity. So what we are doing is, of course, we are being accused of using buying Russian oil. For which the answer is that we are not buying too much of oil, in fact Europeans are buying more oil than Russia. And Europeans are trying to stop it, but the European Union cannot survive without oil from Russia. But Russian oil is available at cheap prices in the market, which we are buying. But not so much, but we have been accused of supporting the Moscow's war effort by buying oil. We also did something about food. Because we said that because of this food crisis happening, India will not export wheat. We first said we will export a lot of wheat to save the world. Then we realized that very, very poor countries have no access to the food market, even Russia does not have. And there is plenty of food lying in Ukraine and rotting. Some way should be found with this, but that only a red cross of something like that. So what is it that can help the sanctions battle? And that is where the United States and NATO are pointing towards India and saying India is helping the war efforts. And of course our answer is that this is not so. We are not fighting the sanctions. And we have certain priorities and positions. But in the Quad meeting in Tokyo, there was some understanding that if not on the question of security, but on larger questions of peace, climate change and various other issues, there have been some agreement. But Quad is not yet becoming. So the question being asked by some people is what does India think? If they have a problem from the Russians at a later date after we have very supportive of the West, who will come to India's rescue if there is a crisis in China? We have no answer because we will say that we will face it when it comes. We have the capacity to do that. So it's very tough situation there also. But even after the Quad summit, the Americans have put out a report on religious freedom in India like in other countries and has criticized India for not looking after its minorities. And we say in answer, what do you have neglected so many? People of Afghanistan have not tried to do anything to be neglected. And the other hotspots of Asia can also not be getting any attention. So what is the conclusion? The only conclusion is how the war ends will be uncertainty. As they always say, uncertainty is the only certainty about the world. Anything can happen. And we have not seen the last of the surprises of the war. In fact, I call this 100 days, 100 days of shocks and surprises. Every day there was a time because the Indian newspapers and the media do not seem to report about this war too much because it was overactive at the time, early stages. When about 20,000 people had to be rescued. So day in and day out, there was a variant call for action. These people must come out. But the day the 20,000 people came out, Ukraine disappeared from the front pages. And that is why we are in a kind of feeling of comfort, which is not real. What are the possibilities? What can happen in the present situation? Imagine what can happen. One thing that can happen is President Putin but suddenly become very responsible and very conscious of the damage he is doing to the world. And declare a ceasefire. It's not impossible. That is one way this war could end. There may be a stalemate in the battlefield. That would be the second possibility. And both sides get fed up. And somehow end the war where it is and withdraw. Or go for talks, you know, offering more concessions to Russia. But also we don't see. And then there are two other possibilities. Of course Ukraine winning the war or Russia winning the war. And these are even further away from reality. So other than that, nobody is predicting an end of the war or even a ceasefire. And so what will happen? More likely a futile war may drag on. And the more it drags on, the worse will be for the entire world. Because there is nothing we see which is hopeful in this stage. Because we may say it's hopeful because not too many people are being killed. And a large number of Ukraine refugees have gone to Europe. They have given three years. But many have started returning. Millions of people are coming back. And that is a good sign. They are coming back to fight the war against the Russians. Or they are coming to have peace, we don't know. Of course, as well as Indian students are concerned. No solution has been found, you know that. But they are hoping that some universities will take them or they can go on with the online education and so forth. But that's not a hot subject anymore because they are not under any threat. And many of them are willing and happy to go back to Ukraine. Because they know the country and they know that no harm will be done. So after 100 days, there is really no hope of a solution. And both sides seem to be in difficulties. And India is fighting its own battle to secure its own position. And emphasize the tragedy of the developing world and the tragedy of Asia. Which is not getting attention from the West. And the Europeans, of course, they do criticize India. But we also do business with them. But if this goes on a little more like the pandemic keeps coming and going. Then there will be a real disaster and the damage to the world economy. And that is what has to be avoided. That was contrasted, not open up any possibility on this. And so the situation is very gloomy whether you live with the pandemic or with the Ukraine war. Humanity is not optimistic about its future. And that's what should worry all of us, particularly the younger generation. As to how the world is going to come out of this disaster and the young people are able to build their lives. Of course, nobody should give up hope. We should feel that we can struggle and overcome it. And that was a natural phenomenon. Particularly for young people, it is very important. But if you want to logically analyze the people and analyze the situation on the ground. This is the conclusion that we reach that it will be a prolonged conflict, a futile war. And not a damage to the world. And the collapse of the economy. Climate change, people who have forgotten. Because survival is more important. And therefore it's a gloomy picture. But let's hope maybe the next time, by the time we talk something new would have happened. Thank you very much.