 Welcome back folks. We get the S&Ps right now negative by six. Let me make sure I got my chart up there Let me get that chart up. There we go All right, we got the S&Ps negative by six right now folks. We get the Nasdaq positive by eight Let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs dad folks every trading day You can reach Teddy at Forex dash trading dash unlock calm We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour at Teddy kegs dad. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy So let's kick it off with some crude. Why not Teddy because we love the crude You've been calling it well man for cheese. We're going back what four or five six months at least now a little bit of a pullback in crude under 80 bucks, but All things considered sitting pretty comfortably at about 80 bucks at this point Talk to me a little bit about what we got going on on crude right now All right crude right now. I think you're just a little consolidation holding pattern. That's it I think it's just a little pause for the cause before the next bull rally happens. Not a doubt That sums it up. Well, man. That's it. Why not? We'll move on But I agree. I mean it's because people love to talk about it today Let's jump in terms of oh man the pullback right with down four bucks. We're up four bucks I got the chart here going back to just august when we were trading at 61 dollars something like that And you know, I deal a lot with Fibonacci numbers teddy. I love them the 382 is just a healthy pullback in my opinion Of course, those stocks are going to move in that direction Occasionally even within a bull run and we haven't even come come close to that yet on that one run We had over the period a couple months let alone if you start looking at the trends we've had going back even further Right in this crude market. Where let me ask you this Where would crude need to go to to kind of change the landscape potentially of things? Because man, I see it all the time now on facebook people posting their gas prices You know, you can't somebody yesterday posted an $80 fill up for their big Ford Explorer stuff like that Where where would that market need to go? Maybe to change the tune that we might see lower prices Anything like that on your horizon or what do you look for us to that market? No, I'm not I'm not even remotely bearish to oil business Especially with the with the climate right now with the administration with what they want to do with the northeast Absolutely not that's all that that if anything's going to just add fuel to the fire to the rally without a doubt So I really truly believe right now. It's just a pause for the cause But for to buy in right now, I would say this is a buying opportunity not a selling opportunity You know, there's no reason to see even remotely a correction in oil Now would it would it impact the markets? Absolutely? I mean the oil market would have to get below 60 before any barometer is even going to start to say Oh, this might help slow inflation slightly in the present not anything that's catching up already You got to remember that's that those the inflation that's already running into gear right now A break in oil is not going to put anything at any stop on that what it may do is slow down What's going on, you know But we would need a significant reversal on oil to get back below 50 45 dollars a barrel for anyone to even say Hey, maybe things are starting to slow down and balance out And you got to remember that there's a new floor on oil oil can't get below 35 40 bucks a barrel anymore Because since they got rid of the pipeline a bunch of other rules since january 20th Warren Buffett is moving all the oil in the country now via railroads So that is now causing an artificial floor and oil and until that policy changes Which it's not going to change anytime soon. You're not going to see oil really have a big sell-off for quite some time You know, it's interesting too. I started thinking about as I'm seeing, you know More and more people just talking about gas prices and 80 dollars, you know to fill up a gas tank Um, it's remarkable where we've been in terms of when we had the last time that we had crude up at four bucks You know go our gas prices up at four bucks stuff like that people started getting away from suvs, right? Well, boy, it's been a long time since that happened, man. I think and I was just googling it during the break Um, and I was like what car company did it and I thought it was for and I think it was for in 2018 They almost like stopped selling production of passenger cars because they were just making so much money off trucks suvs and crossovers That's got to be a big influence right now too, man and everybody loves suvs uh trucks You know, I'm near central florida, man. Everybody's got a ford f 150 pickup truck or something like that to go along with their Ford Explorer, um, that's you know, not enough people talk about it that we kind of got lulled Into thinking and I that you know and I it's it's just interesting right that people forget so quickly They look into these big vehicles that are gas guzzlers And then you say hey, you know gas was not going to be two bucks a gallon forever folks Um, and that's got to be a big influence as well. That's hitting that market as we're all rolling around with those cars All right, let's jump to some of the come on currencies teddy. Where do you want to kick things off for? currencies All right Well, we everyone knows that the dollar index is exploding right now since we talked even last week and over the past two weeks The dollar index is now at multi month highs We're at the highest point the dollar index since june of uh or july of 2020 You know, so that's a big deal right now as far as dollar strength overall You know, um, there's a couple markets that aren't that strong or weak against the dollar But as a whole the euro has been getting pounded I think a lot of that has to do with uh one inflation and two you got the coveted spike that's flaring up in germany You know the u is going backwards. You know, so does that mean I mean now you gotta realize two We're in a weird situation We have numbers that are higher than a year ago and we don't have lockdowns You know or we have some lockdowns nurse other places So the question is are these is the narrative going to go back to the way it was and the way they're supporting And they're going to start locking stuff down. So that's very negative for the u You know Or are they going to say hey, we're not going to do what we did the last time We're going to stay open, you know, either way I think it's going to be a bear for the euro u s dollar. It's going to be tough The pound because of oil prices. I think it's stabilized. It's not going to get hit too much harder You know if the bear still um maintains on I look at it right now the pounds in a correction right now The euro is in a bear market, you know, um u s dollar u s dollar yen Remember, you know, I've been bullish this baby for a while We've had a hell of a rally the past couple days, you know So and now we're up on but budding up against these new highs multi month highs And I I see the u s dollar yen going to 116 I think we just have a little bit of a pause today because Dollar strength has been very strong over the past week and a half, you know And it's not because of it's not because of necessarily big news It's about what's going on on the broader economics. It's more the macro than the micro economics going on right now Yeah, it is interesting man. I have a friend one of my best friends lives in switzerland And so he's more in touch, of course with what's going on in europe Um, and he was talking about uh, he was tweeting out some stuff in austria man austria You know part of course over there that they just got, you know, they're almost it almost feels like what we were going through You know, whether it was early this year during the holidays almost in terms of hospitals filling up all that stuff um I I imagine that's going to have an impact man when they have literally once you reach that hospital problem in terms of hospitals filling up That's where even as a politician, you know, you can't have hospitals filling up And people just not being able to get regular service for a regular type of medical care Um, that's a bummer. It's going on. But yeah, I just I it's surprising, you know, that it continues And look at the u s dollar swiss too real quick. Sorry to interrupt Of the european markets remember i've been saying for a while that it's odd that the swiss has more volatility than the pound in the euro Look at that bounce that's happened over the past few sessions in the u.s. Dollar swiss. It's like a balloon underwater So for that currency to be the one with the most Volatility and pressure that's the one that's guiding the direction for the european currencies right now. So weakness in the swiss Definitely is weakness for the euro for sure not necessarily a pound remember because brexit happened You can't always equate the pound with brexit And I think that's one of the reasons why the pound is not selling off like the euro because they're no longer part of the EU they don't have these problems the EU has you know, they have their own i'm not discounting the uk by their means But their sovereignty and separation and the fact that they don't have to Forgo resources to flood into multiple other countries. Um, unless it's on their own, you know Yeah, I mean brexit caught a lot of a lot of beef when it happened man, but in light of what's going on I know it's pretty interesting Yeah, I'm still going to 116 baby 116 man, we'll pull it up big moves teddy. Thanks for the conversation, man We'll talk to you next week. Absolutely care. We're playing a musical instrument. You have to practice