 Hello traders at CMC Markets. This is Trevor Neal, technical analyst at ROG Research and Beta Group, recording this session on the morning of the 12th of October. After the GDP numbers have come out here in the UK, but before the CPI figures in the US. We start with a relative rotation graph of just the pound and the euro versus the dollar. You can see it is moving here. So right of the dollar means outperforming the dollar, but the dollar is having a bit of a bounce, having made two weeks lows and we're seeing that here as the ROG's turn around at this point. But still outperforming and we'll have to see in the charts whether these little pullbacks are actually by opportunities for these currencies. Starting with the euro versus the dollars and hourly chart. I've brought in quite a lot of data because I want to show some historic support and resistance levels which we're coming up towards now. So we have got a series of lows in the euro around the 106.30 level. The next resistance level above that is 106.70 and then up here at 107.39. It's been going up higher lows, higher highs intact here, pushing ahead strongly since the last two weeks. And we've got support at 105.99 so we call that 106 and also at 105.84 and then these lows down here are also supporting levels. Now zooming in to again hourly chart but just the last few days we see how we're tackling and struggling with this 106.30 level, this long term resistance at 106.30. No real surprise that it should reverse in this way. It's pushed up hard against it. We've had a series of higher lows. It's nice and strong. It's very well supported if necessary at six the round number if the pressure lasts. But let's have a look at what the message are, the indicators. The MACD is positive, yes on this last bar it's come a little bit towards the signal line but it's still above its signal line. The RSI has given a cell signal by going down through 65 from above like this one here was the last one here. And so it's a similar one there. It doesn't mean the uptrend is over but it does mean that in the short term we should ease back a little bit more. And then here we've got the same message from the stochastic, slow stochastic crossing over up here quite nicely at the high and then turning down. So the inferences here is that we're going to ease back a little bit. It is a very important and significant resistance point. It's not a surprise that we're struggling at it but the overall picture remains good. And I think after it comes down a bit low perhaps closer to the 106 level but possibly stabilizing above that then it will put in a new higher low and go up. But for the moment and as we head towards the afternoon CPI figure it looks as though there's some correction in play with the dollar and the expectations that have been quite sort of one sided in the market going into this figure. But it's important we're very sensitive about inflation at the moment. In the absence of the figure we're just correcting a little bit extended but we're at this breakout point 106.30. That does look as though it is eventually going to go but in the near time I think lower before higher. This is an hourly chart squashed up because I wanted to bring in this May low end of May low which is where we're back to now. That's this support point now resistance point and we're trading at it now. We passed through it very easily that was significant the break rallied back towards it then made the low down here in the beginning of the month. And now we're pushing up in a nice uptrend line towards it. A break of that could release quite a lot of short term energy and break definitely the downtrend and the pattern of lower highs that had been driving us when the dollar was strong in August and September. Now let's zoom in on this area here. I'll zoom in two steps I think because I wanted to show you here we've got a shorter term uptrend line since the 4th of October. Higher lows in place here and we're still being guided up by that. We've got a series of lows here at 122.70. Now we've got that long term resistance report level which we looked at a moment ago. It is at 123 really it's 123 the figure. We broke it retraced then pushed up again and we're trading above this 123. So remember it's that V shaped low all the way back in time and here we are hesitating at that level. We put in a top at the moment at 123.36. So the indicators what do they say? The MACD says downwards that is what is happening we are easing back now. The RSI says downwards. The stochastic has crossed it did cross here on this spinning top and we're moving down now. So it looks as though we're in the process of moving down probably to retest the 123 level in a moment. And it should be well supported between 123 and 122.70. And then also picking up this uptrend line which is around 122.70 as well. I wouldn't obsess too much about that line it's just pointing out we've got higher lows. There are only two points on the line but all the lows are higher so it's really a guide rather than a trading trend line. So we're in coming down to an area of support now for this one. The difference I would say from a trading perspective between this one and the Euro is that the Euro has got more resistance. It's here on cable it's pretty light resistance if it does reverse back up again. We're also close to support at the 123 and below the 123 line because we did hesitate for quite a bit before we broke up through it. My expectation is that we're going lower right now and that will continue a bit further but likely Euro stabilise. And here I think the range where it will stabilise between 122.70 and 123. If it does happen there white candles or see shadows below rejection occurring then it looks as though it is holding and crucially it is the 123 level which is holding. Then I would expect another attack successful attack on this high here at 123.36. If we can take out the 123.36 high which is this low here also back from 20th September then the next resistance is a consolidation resistance. Which starts at 123.71. Overall I think that we're in the process of having a short-term pullback in cable that could extend into the zone down to 122.70 but I expected to find support in there. As long as we do hold above the 22.70 we've still got a pattern of continuing higher lows. If you see a turnaround in this in the form of white bodied candles, shadows below the candles rejection of the lower levels then I would imagine I would think that it would be in the process of bottoming out and then looking like having another attack on the 123.36 level which I don't think is going to offer much resistance and I think that we can go on from there and continue this uptrend. We are now going to look at the FTSE and the DAX. The FTSE has had a great run up since we made this low on the 4th and a crossover on the MACD, great signal there. Also pulled back towards the D line and then moving away from it which was a new buy signal and just got you ready for that. This is something which a lot of people are not so familiar with. These attempted crossovers which don't fulfill by crossing over are new sell signals. We had the original sell signal up here and then we had a new sell signal by moving towards it and then away from it again here. That was a good place to sell again for this plunge that came here. Likewise here we had this little pull back but it didn't cross over the percent D line and that gave us the new buy signal there. We used the same technique in the stochastic as well. However the MACD has quite definitely crossed down here now. We surged on the GEP numbers but now at this moment we are using back. We hadn't reached the resistance at 7672. I'm just going to zoom in a bit now. So zoomed in now still with an hourly chart. We have crossed over as I said on the MACD. The RSI has also come down corrected at 50%. Now for many people this can be interpreted a return to 50% in a strong uptrend and then reversing up is a dip and a buy opportunity. It's the opposite of the message of the MACD but the RSI of course is more sensitive than the MACD which is lagging. But we've got a clear message from the most sensitive of all which is a negative one from the stochastic. Stochastic has given a new sell signal in here and we're in the process of coming off. So this adds up to the market struggling with this 7673 high. It is supported, should be supported around the 7615 low. If that were to give way then it could easily slip quickly down to 7539 this high, that high, that low area in there. This is very rapid to smooth up here therefore there's very little support. So this is looking a bit iffy at a resistance level with the stochastic in here clear sell signal, the MACD confirming it as well. Severe loss of momentum at the very least. It does look as though this is going to pause at the very least or it is vulnerable to correcting maybe it's slightly overextended on the 10th there with that big powerful move. Now let's look at the DAX. Big picture view still using our bars of the DAX. You can see that today we've gapped higher but we have got a black candle. But it's broken out of a very significant level 15500. We'll home in on that in a moment. It's got resistance ahead low, high here at 15577 then quite a big gap in the resistance to 15811 there. Strong up move obviously in place. The MACD is still positive although this black candle here has taken the edge of it. So let me zoom in a little bit so we study the indicators. Now here is today's breakout with a gap there and now retracing to the breakpoint exactly to the breakpoint here 15514. And that's where we are pretty well now 09. We're at as I speak still in the uptrend. We've got a gap now to two things we can look at here. It's quite often when we make breakouts we have return moves to the breakpoint. That is where we stand now. And quite often then the next thing that happens is we go up and continue the move. It's quite an important breakout here. Then the gap. So we gapped on the opening. So we opened up here it's a big gap. We're in the process of filling it filled about half of the gap at the moment. The gap is filled if we get to 15488. So let's use this for setting up the trade. So anywhere between here and that and the 14,000 15,488 level is and if we hold that and then turn then we filled the gap. The vacuum has been filled in market doesn't like vacuums and then it can go up. If it if it continues to go down then we're under threat of breaking this low here. In which case the the breakout is actually postponed or even failed if we break down through 15,434. But if let's say that we were to steady up from this point here. This is an attempt to fill the gap which only half fills the gap. And then it is also a retracement to the breakpoint and if we start to turn up from here. So if we get some of this candle itself starts to improve a bit or the next candle is white. Then the indication is it tend to fill the gap didn't succeed in doing it and not succeeding doing it is bullish. And then we should take out the high and here 15,552 and head towards this next level of resistance which is quite strong at 15,810. And so we'll use gap fill techniques. Filling the gap commonly happens you can expect it to happen. It doesn't look as though it's going to do it however because it's trading at the high of the beginning of the month and it's holding that at the moment. If it starts to turn positive now I think it's had its breakout pullback is complete and then it will resume its uptrend. If it does fill the gap and starts to go up that's also good not as good as moving up from here. That's fine but as long as we don't go down below 15,400 then this looks like a buy set up here. Of course it's confirmed if we break the high of 15,549 and then look for the next run up to that high up in there as I said 15,811. The MACD remains positive, the RSI remains positive and the ultra sensitive stochastic has given a cell signal on this candle here. That's because the candle itself is weakened in its range and so it is a very short term cell but let us see whether we get after a short term cell like that one. We get a short term buy like that one there quite soon afterwards. So watch out I like a lot by signals which are generated at high levels in the percentage range of the stochastic that tells you the market is strong. The fact that it's up here in the stochastic is because it is strong. I thank you very much indeed everybody I hope you find this review of the Euro and the Pound and the FTSE and the DAX of interest. It's interesting times, more data on the way, pivotal CPI figures later today but we're in some interesting positions in the market and hopefully I've given you some guidance how to handle what's coming up and what is actually happening in the markets right now. I wish you the best and have a good day and may the trend be with you. Goodbye.