 Yn gweithio, mae'n defnyddio gweithio, i swansio. Felly bod yn gweithio, dyna dyn nhw'n gweithio ar y Gymdeithasol Lleodraeth i'r Cymysgol. Mae'r Gweithio ym Mhwylgwr yn gyffredig y gweithio. Mae'r Gweithio Lleodraeth i'r cyfrifoldeol. Mae'r cyfrifoldeol yn gyfrifoldeol. Oni, mae'n gweld bod bod yn gweithio i'r Gweithio. Mae'n ddifudio i ymwybod â'r gyfrifoldeol. Felly, rwy'n gweithio i'r Minister. Onge then, who's here this evening, and I will be speaking shortly. I just wanted to start by saying that I think this evening it is about the opportunity for us to talk about how the Welsh economy and the UK economy can move forward, and I think the theme for this evening is not about reinventing the wheel but looking at those things that we're really good at and how we can maximise those opportunities for places like Swansea. If you've been paying attention to our city deal proposals, then that's exactly the approach we've been taking here, which is about looking at what we're really good at, what is unique about this region and this city and what we need as specific interventions to grow the economy to fix the underlying weaknesses in our economy and to make sure that we're a success. I am so pleased to see this evening, we've laid an offer for you to LEDO ond nolodd i gynnwys sydd yn ei gwybodaeth rydw i'n manllewyr ar gyfer y trafodaeth gwybod a ddwych yn gwneud yn gwybod, yn y lladob, yn ddwych i'r mrydiannau maen nhw i'n gweld o lim ond i dod i'r awl o gallu Mangell, sy'n gwybod i'r rai iawn o'r cyflwyllus cyfnod a'r cyflwyllus cyflwyllau. Rwy'n gynnwys quadru ac yn gyflwyllus, mae'r ysgolwch sy'n gwybod i'n ei chyflwyllus gyflym o'u cyflwyllus cyflwyllus. ac allod y gallwch – rwy'n gallwch wedi mynd i'r adonau ar hyn, ac yn adod y dyfodol, rydych chi wedi credu'r creu'r rydyn ni'r amser, ac yn mynd i'n mynd i ni, sy'n gydag y cofcos y dyn ni, ac mae'n rhaid i'r gweithio cyhonad eich mynd i maes y ddweud i chi eich ffordd mewn o gynnwys. Pan ameschiad y ffordd? Gyda'u i gan wych yn cael eu bywyd. clwfettau getyrsig, hiulla pl kisseddyn jod wrth iddi hyn fyddwyrgyffen, fel wnaeth yr ystyried nifeddol yn eu bwzliad rwyf na sy'n bod gwttin jugol llwy, ein addiad yn y dystafell iddyn wir wedi gŷe – a allwch yn altafen, hanorol y cwmaint i chi. Iu willerm pawn am fott i ysgrifennu, Maer ac yn o resylu fanildir, o'ch meddwl, arwain i bwatchwn ti taith gyd yn meddyliaid – Felly, yn cael yr gweld ei bobleraeth, dyma'n gweithio rangangor lleol iawn, yn dda i gyda mwyro â qunod lleol iawn, ac wedi'n cyfrifiad. Ond yna gan gafodd, wrth gwrs, mewn dod o ganio. Mae'n cwrwp, mae'n cwrwp, mae'n gyfost, onw, neu mae'n gyfost, mae'n gaelio, ac mae chyfrifiadau i'r 180rwm mwy o â gafodd, mae'n gyfysg, ac mae'n gweithio ni'n angen i chi feth. Mae'n gweithio, mae hwn yn cael ei gawn i chi. sydd yn gweithio cwestiynyr. Mae'n gweithio, yn fwy oes, cymaint â phyn, ac mae'n cysylltu'n gweithio – dwi'n byw i'n gwneud o'ch gweithio gyd. Felly mae'n mynd i hynny, dyma'n gwneud yn gwneud, a mae'n hynny'n gwneud nad ydym ni'n grondol sy'n gweithio cyhoedd iawn. Rhunno'n dweud eu heb ei wneud hynny, dyma sy'n mynd ein profiad o casgau teimlo, ac nes ydi roi'n mynd i'r gweithio hefyd yn meddwl, lle mae'r gweithio hefyd yn ym 1,700. being such a hugely tough time and then what is coming over the next year certainly does and that's before we start to see what looks like a rise in unemployment next year and before the rise in mortgage bills turns out from being something on a bank of anyone's account into being something in people's bank account. So it's difficult today that people are dealing with and one of the things I think that makes it so difficult, makes it difficult for everybody but actually makes it particularly difficult for those people interested in economic sydd wedi gweld i'r cyffredin, oherwydd mae hynny'n cael ei wneud i'r llai ffordd. Teimlo i'r rhaid, ond oedd y lle oedd y peth yn ymlaen i ddechrau am y momentau i'r ffordd, mae'n ddim yn ddegos i'r ffordd, nid o'r cyffredin oes fan hyn o'r gael ymryd. Mae wedi gwybod, oherwydd mae'n ymryd mewn gwirioneddau a'r ymryd, ym Mhwlad sydd yn gweithio i ddiwedd ar gyfer o'r phasol o'r dweud a chyfodol iawn. Felly, ar ôl weithio y rheswm yma, fyddwn i'w ffawr o'r gweithio i'w gweithio i'w gweithio i'w gweithio ar yr Enrydd 2030, yma'n cael ei gwaith o'r proiect ar hyn y dyfodol yma yn ysgolwydau a'r grwp iawn. Mae'r ddweud yn ffondi'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Ond mae'n ffocws ar y ffordd ymlaen, sut mae'r gweithio'r bach o'r ffordd? Sut mae'r bach o'r hyn o'r gweithio'r bach o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r gweithio'r bach o'r dweud o'r bach o'r ddweud? Rwy'n meddwl, ac mae'n hoffa amser yn ei tyn ffordd o ymddangos, ond o'r strataeth rhesweithio cynyddiadol yn Y U UK. Rwy'n meddwl ar gael'r mynd i bobl yn y bysiau. Mae'r strataeth dros euolun i ymddangos, wedi gair o hwn o bai'r peoladeg Cymru o. Dyma'r bap yn meddwl oedd gennym o'r bap ymddangos, ac mae'r rhesweithio'n baibydd, ac mae'r bap yn cael ei chilydd, ac mae'r rhesweithio cyffredinolum rhesweithio ymddangos, fel y gallwn dyma ar gyfer y dyma ar gyfer y dyma, mewn byth yn ymgyrch, fewn y dyma gael gyda'r gweithio a'r gwybod yn cael eu gwlad. Felly, os yn ddigon o'r gweithio, felly mae'n gobeithio'n gyda'r lefel. Yn y ffr�io, mae'r gweithio yn gyflawni'n gyngor i ddweud o'r cymdeithasol, ond mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio, ond wrth gwrs, mae'r economi ymlawn i'r cyflen o'u cyflawni a'r ddechrau. chi organism a'r bwysig wedi bod ar draws byddai'r hunain arni, yn gwahanol i gyda'r barat. Mae'n mynd i'n cael bod pob i ddweud yn sicrhau bwysigol, bod y fforddau gwaith yn teimlo, a'r bwysigol yn ofy vertu. Mae'r bwysigol yn eithaf i ddigwydd ychydig, moed hynny i ddweud ei ddweud. Wel, mae'r wneud yn ôl i ddweud y projiddau, mae'n neud am iawn ei ddweud eich dyfodol a'i typrion i ddweud yng nghyddon yw'r drwylu gwladau UK i chi, Gwaith yr hyfforddiad yma yn ymgyrchol, mae'n gweithio'r cyffredinol ar ei reliablen dynnu ar gyfer y gweithio a wahanol, pan ydych yn digwydd arnyn nhw'n gweithio i gyd. Gwaith fod yn gyfrei'r Perlun yn endangerededol. A'r cwrs drwy'n cael ei wneud yn ymgyrch ar bethau o draf Diddynt. Felly hanedysi'r llyfr yn meddwl am gweithio'r gyda'u cerddysgu cyda'u gwaith ar gyfer y cyfrwyng iawn. Yna mae'n gwaith ddim yn perthol yn lŷ. Ieithi'n gweithio ond fel ychydig sy'n gweld yn y panel, ac mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio ar fynd genny o'r gwrs fath. Er yna, rydych yn bryd i'r parwyr Cysylltu Chyllidionol, sy'n bryd i'r parwyr Cysylltu Chyllidionol, ac yn gweithio'n gweithio, Dwi'n ddweud nid o'r ddechrau, ond mae'n ddweud yn ddechrau cysylltu. Gweithio'n ddweud, yn cael gweithio. Ond mae'r llyfr yng Nghymru erddgos ydw i'ch hyfforddiwr o'r llyfr o'r bod ystdôn yn gyda cofer平ant y brif yn rhan o'r bapwysig. Fel Llwysau ei ffwrdd mae'r rhagwch yn gallu AMG ac mae'n ganddw i'r erbyn ei gynirio a phwyllo arall. Yn gyddon â'r llyfr yng Nghymru, roeddwn ni'n ymddangos dwy'r llyfr o'r brif ar yr llyfr. Yn ymwysig ymwysig o'r armogio'r llyg yn rhoi gyda Dawn Gethyn, yng Nghymru o'r ministerio gyda'i maid y mynd, ac yn ymdianodd ar gyfer o'r cymryd, ond ond nifer gofyn ar gyfer i'r clyw o'r wyf yn ei wneud. Rwy'n ei gweithio'r cymryd o'r gweithio'r cymryd o Washington. Rwy'n gweithio'n gwleidio ddweud o'r ffordd, ac nid oed yn ymddangos. Rwy'n gweithio'n gweithio'r cymryd o'r wyf. Rwy'n gweithio'n ddweud o Professor Menly Jones, rwy'n Ffreser o economiais ac Cardiff Bysnes School sence 2015. Go iawn, oes wirthysgwch, mae'n radyn arwng o'n byw o'n dweud o'r newid�ad a hynny yn gwybod gyda newid i gwybod. Rwy'n meddwl nhw'n gweithio, mae'n iawn. Hefyd, rydyn, mae'n cael ychydig. Rydyn ni'n credu'r gweithio'r cerdd, ymyn i a yw werthod 15 ym 15 yma ar y 12 minute. Nid yw'r greu, wrth gwrs, mae'n ymwneud yn ystil yma, a'r oedd yn gweithio. I'm going to begin by setting the scene. In 2022 we face an immediate challenge and that is of inflation. Inflation has now reached 11.1% and this was largely unexpected from previous forecasts. What this has mainly been driven by is energy bills with the conflict in Ukraine leading to an increase in gas prices. We've seen energy bills increased by seven times i gyd ac yn y mediant ymlaen nhw'n cysylltu'r OBR ac yn cael hyd yn cael cael 4%. Yma bod y cyflym gyda'r mediant yn y mediant, nid yn ymlaen nhw'n cysylltu'r cyflym yn mediant. Felly mae'n gwaith o gweithio cyflym o gweithio cyflym. Yn gweithio ar y dyfodol, yr ysgolwyr ystodd y cyflym yn gweithio'r cyflym, yma yng Nghymru, sy'n gychwyn rai'r cyflym ymlaen nhw'n gweithio cyflym. ac mae gynno i'r cymhendredol i'r cyfnod a llwylliant i'r cyfnod oedd gyrdd yma. Ond y gallwn gyd amserion hwn yn gweithio i ddechrau gynno ddych chi'n gweithio'r cyfnod ar y ddweud. Mae'r llwyffon yn ddegwyddoedd mewn cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod, A wnaeth gyda'r gweithio cyflores y Llyfod Llyfrgellulion, rwy'n ychydig cyflores y Llyfrgell Llyfrgell, Beth ydych yn ei oeddan ni'n gwneud tu獲. Wrth fynd i'n rwyf fynd, mae'n gweithio'n rwy'n 50 yrw ngwybod fyrdiol. A gynhyrchu'r gweithfürdig oherwydd yr ydymgyrch fyddion o'r Llyfrgellulion i gydig oedd y Zenfodol i gyflymu Llyfrgellol ymdaddy 50 ymdd dependsydd yma. A no ddwech chi'n ddweud, mae hynny yn fyddian nhw'n oedd y ddimgyrch. The first of these problems that the UK economy faces began in the 1980s is the creation of incredibly high inequality amongst individuals. This chart shows the Gini coefficient which is one measure of income inequality and looks at how this has changed over time. You can see a great increase in the 1980s and the sort of plateau throughout the 1980s to the point we are today. This is something we have inherited from the past A while it may seem surprising to see something inequality remains so flat in this measure over the last 20 years, it's clear that this is a significant problem that an economic strategy needs to solve. The second issue has been the rise of the decline of UK economic growth. Ac ychydig y gallwch y cyfansiad ymarfer o'r grwpio, oherwydd rydd yn swyddfa, cyfansiadau yn y compag애, mae'r grwpio a'i tyfnwys. Mae'r aelwynges, rygfaenai, rwy'n ddigwethaf, mae'r rygfaenau, ond mor rygfaenau a trefanc angeniar a phoblau i'r rhwng ar y dweudogi a gjweldau. Mae'r rygfaenau yn y cyfansiad a llawu i'ch gweithio ar y ddsodol. ac mae eich gweithio yna, eich cyfynwedd wedi cael ei gweithliad ond erbyn ddod o meddwl i'r gweithlŷ. Rydyn yn ei hun Υp yw 35% mewn gwirionedd y cychaf o'r gweithliad ar y gael 10 ym 10, sio hyd mewn gwirionedd yn buts y cedennwys i gweithlu, ac y cungoment yn gwaddol a'r inghyns yw hwn yn y norm мож wedi'u'r eich gweithliad yn y gweithliad yr unrhyw i Gweithlŷeysig. 170 Task loops. Mae gynnal hynny'r co compose that labour earth means is relative to many european countries the UK isn't performing as well as it once was. What this chart shows you is the level of incomes the UK relative to other countries. what the big take way is that while the top of UK households the richest 10% are slightly richer than their french counterpart ddweud, a'r rhain yn cael ei ddweud, a'r rhain yn cael eu gyntafoliaeth yn gyflawn. Mae'r ddweud a'r rhain yn cael ei ddweud yn cael eu ddweud. Yn ychydig, mae'r rhain yn cael eu ddweud. Rwy'n gweithio ychydig, dda'n ddweud, oherwydd yma yw 22% yn cyflawn. Mae'n ddweud, oherwydd ar y gymryd yma, oherwydd ar y gymryd. A ess chi'n gallu wneud â'r tyfiau gwlad yng Nghymru mae'r pryd yng Nghymru. Here, we're looking at food, fuel, clothing and transport, that more and more people are seeing larger amounts of their income taking up by spending on essentials. In the poorest quintile you can see that back in 2006, they were spending just under 52% of their income on essentials. ..eg y myfyrwch sy'n werthwyl gyda'r angen o'r 50-99%. Felly, mae hyn oedd yahanol o'r honno.. ..a'r angen o'r hyffordd mor ydwendol iawn.. ..a chyfrinfod y trofaol ar gyfer cymaean ychydig sydd y gallwn mwyaf.. ..y'n myfyrwch bod ydych chi'n fydde i ddau sydd yn teithio'r tiynau. A i ddweud beth sy'n addysg? Mae'n digwyddr angen y cyfanydd y g Popeunol fath o'r 20 ym MŽ. Rwy'n iawn i amser i'r yw'r bobl y plane... Mae'r ddechrau cynedig gyda yr inni i'r hanesfyniad ac yn hwnnw i'w teimlo'i gwahanol hwnnw i'r pryd-gylchedd hynny fydd anghylo'n gwybod a'i ddweud hwnnw i'r holl fyddol ar yno gwybod. Dwy'r ffagor sydd wedi'u linig cyfrifroful i'r unrhyw o'r unrhyw o'r unrhyw o'r Unrhyw o'r ysgrifol, rydych chi'n yn f lunig cyfrifroffon o'r holl yma ar bod hyn yn gwybodaeth angenol. Ysbryd yw'r charf yn y cefnol o'r gwybod gyda'r cynhyrch数 o'r ddau cyfionfyr ac yn y dweud, ac mae'r tyw'r ddweud yn eich ddeudio y dyfodol gyffredinol yn eich dweud, ac mae'r ddweud yn y reif, yw'r ddweud yn eich ddweud. Yr hyn y gallb bod eich ddweud yr Un rhaglen yng Nghymru yn eu dweud. Mae'r Un rhaglen eich dweud i gyd ar gyfer y dweud? Ac mae'r ddweud o hyd ym 488 bilynwyr ichanig o'i hyffredinol. Letwch ar ôl, mae gennych eich cyfnod yma, a roeddwg stewfwyllwydd yn iawn. Felly wedi cyfnod ar gyfer ysgolig和fiant, rwy'n angen i'n gwneud yn ysgolig gyda'i ysgolig a'r ysgolig cyfnodol. Dyma gweithio'r eistedd yn ysgolig yn ysgolig cynllunol, Oesbydd yn ysgolig a'r ysgolig. Mae'r ysgolig, ei uned yn eu bod yn rhoi'r eistedd ar gyfer arweinyddol. Felly, mae'n gŵr ymdweud yma bod y ffairwyr wedi'i gwneud methu arall i fynd i'w ddechrau'r unrhyw o'r ddweud o'r gweithio a ymddangos yn fwy o'r amdarnogau. Felly mae'n gŵr i'r gweithio arall i fynd i fynd i'w wneud. Ond rydyn ni'n gwneud i fynd i fod yn gallu bod fynd i'w gweithio eich llwyddo, a dyna i chi fod yn cael y mynd i'r gweithio ar yr hyn o'r mynd i gyfrofi'r gweithio. Mae'r cyfnodau o'r cyfnod yng Nghymru. Mae'r cyfnodau a'u gwblion yn fawr yn ymgyrchol a'r rheswm o'r cyd-goligio ar gyfer y region. Rydym ei chyfyddiad eich hefyd, oedd ymgyrchu o'r ymgyrchol yma, oedden nhw'n mynd i gyfrannu o'r cyfnod ddod o'r prolydydd. Dwi'n credu ar gyfer y cwmbr, mae'r Lund, Peirys, ddod o'r Ymgyrchol yn fwyaf'r cyfnod o'r cyfnod ddod o'r cyfnod ddod, That and thatPa simply as a result of our services tilt but we can also see is that the gap between the second cities in France is a lot smaller than it is in the UK so the gap between Lyon and Paris is around of 20% in products of determs but the gap between Manchester and London is 30% So what this leads us to realise part of improving and delivering a strategy for growth reacting to growth strategy is delivering and improving the performance of our second cities. But doing that requires significant investment and significant change. In this chart we are showing a thought experiment of what it would take to close the productivity gap between London and Cardiff to 20%. What this amounts to is 30% more capital per worker, 30% more highly educated graduates Ieifer oscill sounds. Rhyw hwn wedi bod yn rhaid i ei gweld arnaeth ar herordeb aglomerasio'r ffordd. Mae 150,000 intriodod o cadw wahanol yn ni gwasanaeth ddau a rhaid i wahanol. Sa'n ei wahanol iddyn nhw. Roedd oes o'r ddechrau'n dwylo'n dweud o rhaid, i wneud o'r dweud o'r dweud o'r dweud o yw'r dweud o ddysgu'r ddechrau i'w ddechrau ddiol Llynedd. ac mae'r cydwyddoedd yn ei wneud yn fawr o'r projeg o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r Brexit o'r ddweud o'r UK a'r real wages. Mae'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r impact o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r Wales, o'r North East ac o'r London o ddweud o'r real wages o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r deal. Yn partechion i fewn diagnosis bod merkwydau ar y cynhyrchu at y paen nhw, nad yw'n cymager'ni yn y ddweud o gynnig yn mer starring o eu ddweud o ddweud o'r cydwyd��릴게요 yn fawr o'r falle, a thyn universally baut yn y wazion digwydd. Feth yn fan sosio'r wazion i beth iniquedodru, hoffa arall a fawr research都有 gen i gwneud â wahanol o answeredor impresfane himt ar unig sydd furydiwn yw ddweud o'r tar Scarour, ac yn dynnu dda i'n ats-neg チ Hydwangu. ac mae'n dwi'n gallu bod ein bod iawn, datblygu nawr ar ôl llan gyd yn dweud yn gweithio'r lluniau yn i'r wych. Ac mae'n dweud, oherwydd, dweud bod ar gyfer cerddau gyd yn golygu'r gweithio. Mae'n mod i fod yn cael ei ysgol â'r llan gyda'r iawn, yn ymdweud am yr onod lluniau ar y canidau diolch yn oedd yn oedol y dechamelis. Mae'n amser gan rhai i'r cyfle o'r amser sy'n cyhoedd ar y sgol a'r bundelol fo cyfraithau i gael o'r 60% o'r argyllustio. A byddwn i'r gyfryddau sydd o'r ddefnyddio'r bobl yn gweithio i ddiogelio'r cyhoedd. Mae'r ddweud i'r hynny mae'n gallu gweithio ddefnyddio'r ddweud, sy'n gilydd i ddweud i'r ddweud o'r ddweud, yn ddweud i ddweud i ddweud i'r ddweud. The chart shows the big increases in energy efficiency installations that are going to be required over the coming 20 years to deliver an Easting by 2050. While there will be a lot of activity in the coming decade, it's important to remember that lots of this energy efficiency will require upfront investment. And there's a risk that the poorest are left behind. The poorest 50th of homeowners have a disposable income of around £9,000 assessed wider collagen for the media chain over 90,000 pounds, and, on average the costs that they will incur in trying to improve the energy efficiency of their homes will completely take all of this around sticker £8,600. So, we need to make sure that those who can take the opportunities available by making their houses more energy efficient are not simply the rich. Secondly, we need to be ensuring that dweud y ddefnyddio ar gy富 wasgau cymryd. Rwy'r gweithio bydd gan phobl eich teimlo dda i gyd yn yanneud, ac rydyn ni'n oed yn dda i'r cyfnod bwysig gael. Y cofnod o'r gyd yn parole mae'r gwaith sydd yn ymgyrchu'r cyfnod i'r cyfnod gael. Bydd divided i gael i'w pethau am un o'n gweithio'r cyfel cyfnod, roeddwn i'r cyf400 i'r cyd-d Tapod, dwi'n mynd i gynnig'r gyfrydd gael'r cyfridd yn mynd i ddweud... ... يrud am rhaid i'w mynd i'r cyfridd yn y byn cyllid o'r cyfridd i gyrtig ddweud... ... ac 이 wasg iddod o'r cyfrdd yn gyrdd gyrdd yma'r cyfridd yn dweud, nid efallai gynhyryd... ... gyfridd yn dweud, ond fe ddechreu'r cyfridd yma o'r cyfridd yn dweud y ddweud... ... mae'r cyfrdd yn dweud wedi'u cyfridd yn dechrau van un mwy o cles... yn gweithio unigwys. Felly, yma'n gweithio i gweithio i gael a gweithio'r gweithio'r gwaith gyda'r cyfnod ar gyfer gweithio rankau ei hunain. Felly, i gael i gweithio'r cyfnod ar gyfer gyfeiri'r gweithio'r gwaith o'r gweithio ar yr ysgrifolau. Felly, byddwch chi'n gweithio yw'r 2020 i'r ffórm yma, yw Brexit, ac yn ychwyfio i gael'r cyflomau mewn yn ymweld, We're going to see some redeployment of labour, some workers moving from industry to industry. What we note is that the UK's social security system doesn't provide nearly the same amount of protection as the systems in many of our peer countries. So you can see here that the UK's unemployment benefits for a single person without children barely covers 40% of the wage that the average person would be on in this country. And so if we're going to try and reshape and redeploy the resources in our economy, it's important that people who are expected to move and who will be changing jobs are not left in destitution as a result of that. So what is the prize on offer if we do all these things and manage to tackle our stagnation and deliver a new strategy for the UK? Well basically the gains that are to be had can completely reshape our society. This chart shows you the prize on offer. On the far left we can see the impact of raising the UK's income levels to match five comparative countries and these are Germany, the Netherlands, France, Canada and Australia countries that we'd normally consider our peers. But if we were simply to be as rich as them we would see an across the board increase in our incomes of 20%. If instead we were just to become as unequal as them we were to reduce inequality to the levels of these five comparative countries we can see that the rich would lose some of their income but the poorest would gain 20% which would make a significant impact on their ability to absorb shocks. But if we did both of these things what we can see is huge gains at the bottom of around 45% of incomes but also small gains for the top as well helping create a more prosperous and equal society. So to summarise the current cost of living crisis should prompt us to think more carefully about the last two decades of stagnation and how that's impacted households. Revitalising our UK economy should be based on creating a strategy rather than wishful thinking and we should be trying to spread the gains from higher growth across regions with significant investment and also across individuals by trying to reduce already high levels of inequality. And the price for doing this and controlling inequality and boosting growth is potentially huge. Thank you. Very good, thank you Christian. So growth up inequality down, that is the task for how we're going to get it over to you. Well, Jolth yn fawr, it's a pleasure to be here seeing some new faces some old friends and a peg mic who's still in recovery in the audience. It really is a pleasure to be with you. Thank you both to Rob Stewart for giving it an open hatch. I think Swansea has got a real level of ambition and lots in progress already compared to say a decade. And that does show that active leadership at a local level can make a difference. But also thank to Torsten who I'm delighted is here following his recent spot with Stephen Bush online about how youthful looking he does it at the moment. It's a real pleasure. Torsten's shape has been so that's why he looks especially youthful tonight. But I look like Christian for the presentation in the overview and it's quite interesting following on to change some of the parts of what I was going to say based on the presentation. And I would also thank the course of the Warfront Museum for hosting us here tonight. And the location is fitting in many ways as you'll have seen from the rated exhibitors Bami's school children and tourists visit this building to learn about how Swansea and Wales have helped to shape and been shaped by dramatic economic change since the Industrial Revolution. My son has been learning in school about the Victorians and he's quite pleased not to be a child of the Victorian Britain for a number of reasons. But when you come here today to consider what comes next for us and what we could do to help shape it of course a number of the points that Christians make set out significant challenges across the UK. Not all of those leavers are here in Wales with the Welsh Government. But I think it should still be about what can we do given that there is some flux in the nature of relationships and potentially for the future as well. I saw the... not just at least that nation-nation report but leavers recently published Draft Industrial Strategy. Recognised there was a need to reconsider how devolution works in the UK. Our rates of research are similar about Northern England. But of course when you look at successful states lots of those successful state actors have significant devolution. Germany being perhaps the easiest and most obvious example within the European context but it's not unusual to have different powers held in the centre and those within nations that reason to make up the unitary state. Particularly for the residential foundation here of course for the interest in and contribution to the policy making Wales in the past but also hopefully a continuing interest in that because we have here an impact of UK choices with choices we can make as well and obviously the foundation despite being young and small as Thornton said still having a major impact on the UK's economic debate including for those who are the don't watch chat for the comments but I think it's particularly so because of the deliberate focus foundation has on living standards and that's especially important for us in Wales Thornton was pointing out to me that equality rates in Wales and in the UK but that is actually because we don't have as many people in the higher income practice we disproportionately have more people in the lower and middle income rate it's one of the challenges and the puzzles for us in the government on whether we actually use our income rates because we have to essentially raise money from lots of people on lower and middle incomes to make a significant difference in raising money that is whether you are in a period of early recession or not now it's true enough I think when we think about not just our long term strategy but the role for experts as opposed to some of the quasi I think that in Tufton Street with others and we saw their recent move into Downing Street for a brief period of time and the impact they have but we have to work for the trust we found that within the government and there's a rigor and analysis that I think is needed now more than ever in the state nation nation report and that I had the opportunity to read some of on the plane on the way to Washington for my serious work is it that went very well pointing out the parts of the outward looking nation we have and also opportunities for growth that looked at the performance of the UK economy and not just the question of how and where decisions should be taken so I can talk a bit more about the levelling up story as we have it today and what that's meant for Wales and there are also hopefully some more hopeful and positive thoughts on the future now again Christians spreading this and talking about some of the complex challenges that we face and some of the trade-offs and potential solutions on offer however when you look at the levelling up of white paper I don't think it bears much relation to the picture that Christians painted both of our current economic prospects the picture of inequality and also answers for the future the levelling up white paper recognises a significant inequality across the UK but then the answer I don't think really set out to much the challenge the rhetoric and the reality have been divorced and I don't think that white paper has a serious focus on areas of comparative advantage so I don't think it's relevant to the job of making the UK more competitive so Christians perspective on service I'll talk a bit on and it doesn't really focus on targeting LEED I mean it isn't really geared up to lift people out of poverty and the points made in the presentation previously about inequality is worse in the UK than in comparable states the UK and the US really stand out in that sense of wealthier nations with significant inequality and even despite that I think the technical phrase that Tawson had used previously to describe the fact that we're actually less wealthier than the comparable nations was I don't think it was there these other nations are way richer but I think that's the technical commonness to it but it's true you look at the figures and we have a big challenge up that we were all out of it in having more people with more and more unequal society doesn't mean that our overall picture is a country that is wealthier perhaps worst of all there wasn't any sense of partnership or cooperation in allowing up white papers it's not informed by priorities that are understood by communities businesses and policy makers across the UK it was actually a pretty centrally driven mission that then says local areas will now deliver against the plan that we have put together now in crude terms leveling up in practice has meant that Wales has less safe over less money and we've tried to run through some of the argument this is just a matter of fact the way of leveling up budgets promises on people not losing the penny having them made real but also the way the money is then distributed if you look at the formula for leveling up in Wales it actually takes money away from areas with concentrated poverty and inequality and spreads them out and levels them off into areas that have less of an economic challenge now that's good news for some parts where they're getting more money but it's at the expense of communities with the biggest challenge to meet for more than 20 years before that decisions about structural funds were spent and they were taken in devolved areas by this devolved community and the choice was made to move away from that not in the manifesto but in the way that leveling up was designed now that causes a real sense of grievance about what's happened but it also means you've now got choices being made in areas that are plainly devolved by competing areas of influence so far from having a clearer picture of who will make choices at what level on the subject and now the picture is much more confused with money that has been promised to transform the country in headlight terms but in reality it's being spent in a more disparate way and I think sometimes this can be a bit boring why would you talk about the formula for that unless you talk about that speech in time in Wales but actually the formula for what it matters because it shows not this level of commitment and understanding of the challenge that helps you to understand how much resource you've got to try and do something together it also matters when you talk about the nature of how the money is organised because the more people you have time to argue with and the mission they've been set in leveling up terms is much more disparate so it's not bigger strategic challenges they're looking to resolve and so I think we're going to go through some of the things that I think we learnt here in Wales in the first round of structural funds we've probably spent money too narrowly on products that are too small I know there's a form of finance minister in the room and we then try to learn some of that and try to look to spend money on more strategic projects to make a bigger difference and whilst we managed those funds an employment fell more rapidly in Wales compared to the rest of the UK reverse historic trend our challenge is we still need to do even more to catch up we also have growth in employment and qualification levels and decreases in economic inactivity in West Wales and the Valleys and again our challenges we still haven't caught up we still have more to do the rest we face now is going backwards in those areas EU funding also supported the Development Bank of Wales and our business support service business Wales, apprenticeship programme and wider employability and skills support including the Wales Union Learning Fund it's nice to have it's quite interesting about the number of people who really are nowhere near as good as they should be but for some of them in some other places having a trade union there to talk to in the first place and often help them rather than go on up to their employer to acknowledge they don't have basic literacy or numeracy skills and what will actually help them to become more productive for their employer not just up there of course but in their wider life too business Wales, apprenticeship programme 25,000 jobs since it was created and our development bank the UK's first has delivered about 1.2 million pounds of positive impact in its first five years so we have done some things right our challenge again, the scale and what more we can do I think all of those are essential to the future and examples of what we want to do and they've been harmed by the levelling up project and indeed the internal market act for those of you who aren't fit to go down a racks that allows the UK government to use resources to spend money in the bold areas without needing to trouble themselves with speaking to us about it now, we're not just 1.1 billion pounds worse off by 2085 that's the cash loss before you think about the realities of inflation because of the refusal to meet pledges on EU funds and Peter Foster from The Financial Times not noted as a radical left we know The Financial Times although I think they were placed into the anti-growth coalition I hope for not slagely agreeing with everyone that is coming out from the six week administration but he talks about slippery accounting of the treasury on what's happening with those lost funds and we talk lots about this influence because the impact is great to hear than other UK regions apart from perhaps Northern Ireland you can see from the charts the impact on inequality here already and it's also significant because in one place it signifies how far away the UK has been from embracing devolution as part of the solution to a stronger version of our UK economy and what that means for people and communities there's one particular line from the Stag Nation nation report I'm sure I have had some sort of look at it but I'll actually check this change on a scale required by the media is inconsistent with national politicians refusing the construct efforts or local politicians unable to embrace the disruption involved because they lack the power to shape it and I think that's national politicians in any of the parties that could form the UK government is a challenge for both of our major parties not just one of them and Andy Haldiff when he chaired the UK government's industrial strategy council he's now moved back into government in one form and it's interesting I think his views might have shifted but at that time he said the best laid funds are those laid locally which build a broad base of foundations including investment, education skills and culture that requires local institutions requires and have the Holy Trinity of powers, moneys and people both observations are correct but in both cases levelling up actually makes matters worse in the way it's operated in practice the institutions are holding described which include the likes of business Wales and the developer bank have been made worse off because powers and moneys have been pulled out of the centre under the banner of alert names and then we distributed in a much more scattered way but levelling up and worthy of credibility would have been published in 2020 with clear priorities designed to develop strong local economies in a more balanced UK economy and they could and should have been developed together with those local actors now I think it would also be described how we were funded over multiple years and again this is one of the challenges with the current levelling up journey it doesn't grab lots of headlines but at the moment the design is that every the levelling up funds as they are have to have an approved plan now there's been some flux in the UK so the plans haven't been approved yet but the money has to be spent within each thousand years now previously with EU funds people in this room spent money over all the one year this would mean that the money doesn't get spent and it goes back to the Treasury now I don't understand how a UK mission on levelling up can say here's your money but if you don't spend it we'll have it back that either means the Treasury does well and says it's not our fault but those people in the provinces haven't spent the money or it means money spent very poorly at the end of the year and we have experienced people do that to get money out the door so it isn't lost and that can run contrary to what we're trying to do I'd have thought that a Government in need of some relatively pain-free wins can actually do something about making sure all those budgets do help multi-reflexibles because it will stop people investing in answers and it's the same with multiple which again is a UK Government raid on that suppose of levelling up funds they would have a new receipt programme now we have work to do on that that's true but actually we also have lots of work to do on our literacy as well and in choosing centrally a chance for a sumac as he then wants who decided to do this it's taken that money away in an area where actually we could have spent the money better I think but also who on earth is going to set up as a provider for a programme and you know you've got to spend the money within one year or lose it and no certainty what happens again at the three years when you actually find the institution you set up no longer exists so again for those people wanting to deliver that provision it doesn't provide the sort of multi-year provision that should be required now in Wales I think what we have done is we've gone through the intensive engagement with experts we're in favour of experts broader as well as developed government local government business universities tradiwals in the third sector in conflict love would be setting an impossible task we went through that because we did all that heavy lifting before we published our plan for a placement EU funds nearly two years ago and we asked the OECD to help with its design and the entire process as we continue to work with them on what the future of regional policy should be within Wales so it didn't simply give all the money to Cardiff and we will decide for the rest of the country it really is how we work alongside partners in regions and we're still going to do some of that so our local authorities are in regions one of the few things we got out of levelling up was we persuaded the UK government not to have an alternative map that didn't map onto the regions we were working with so there's some commonality there which is sensible we also have regional skills partnerships those people looking at skills together with businesses together with providers to understand what skills should look like within that part of Wales we got some shared priorities a challenge I think will be have all of those things added or don't in the way those funds will then be spent and then all those people will come looking for money that doesn't exist in our plans we also had a role for the UK government and I think that's important to recognise what we are part of the European Union there was a European framework but broad strategic objectives for how funds should be used and we then determined things within that so we did expect that UK would have a broader role in setting up a strategic framework without then trying to make all of the individual choices or indeed without trying to bypass us all together and I think there is still room to actually have a more sensible agreement where devolution is respected and we get to focus on the substance of what we want to do if we had done that two years into programmes projects that we would have wanted to see happen would have had money being spent the undeniable truth is that not a single penny of the shared prosperity fund has been spent in Wales around the part of the UK to date because there hasn't been any approval from it and it does show an extraordinary level of not just muddled thinking but the lack of the ability to actually make things work so the chaos in the flux in Wales has very real consequences for how resources are the argument is also to actually work in social parks and we are proud of here in Wales and it takes hard work so working with businesses working with local governments working with higher education and also working with trade unions and I think the former finance minister and we recognise that at the start of devolution he thought that working with trade unions was just something for labour party and it wasn't really something for the government to get involved in but working with businesses was definitely another business and we said actually government and trade unions are part of the social partnership coalition to try to understand how we can best ourselves also in a small country like Wales to try to get people into the same room to try to get some agreement on our path to the future in our journey forward and those forms do come together they're a section of the pandemic but I think what's coming they're still going to find a real purpose now our commitment is and it's not really rocket science we want more jobs, better quality jobs fair work that can also help to improve people's wellbeing now I do think in Wales that continue to include manufacturing I didn't read Christian's presentation saying forget manufacturing it's never going to happen there are many areas where we have significant manufacturing sectors it's bigger in Wales as a share of our economy than other parts of the UK and of course we're a partner in government some of those sectors with global significance from steel to semiconductors in the news recently to renewables and aerospace we have about 20% of euros and there's more to come I think within that sector so those sectors and advanced manufacturing certainly has a future in Wales we're about a sector that's struggling to map into some of what Christian was talking about so we have a burden infintech sector here in Wales significant interest in the growth and international partners in order to invest in that cyber security, anti-vehicle film the German ambassador was over recently, I don't know he was just being blunt when he looked at the creative sector it's one of the things that there is a more notice of in Wales we're third only behind London and Manchester in a TV film industry in the UK and it's all more impressive we can think that Manchester has a significant boost of the BBC locating as well our approach is also focused on the everyday economy around us trying to find a way to talk about the foundation that doesn't set people to sleep when they're actually working it doesn't gain to be made for that the way that we spend money locally the way that we advantage local businesses that are rooted in ground of their competencies and aren't going to disappear somewhere else is a strength to build on together with those interests a more significant financial investment that I've just been talking about now a happier positive story of collaboration is, and I'll give it an example so we're not all having a downing of your government I see Richard and what our officers in the Welsh Government in the front row and practically we work quite well with officers of the department for international trade particularly in international settings where you have Welsh Government officers we occasionally have disagreements at a more senior level and with ministers but with Bains as well we're making strong roles in the form of the Global Centre for Rail Excellence near the former mining town of Ongloen it's a place made famous by the film Pride and actually the person in that film David Donovan, I worked with him in his second career as an organiser and vector and I never knew what was him until I watched the film I had many conversations with him but that joint investment is linking innovation with a global demand for a, I'd say just a niche industry but a specialist industry and it's well placed in a good job where they're most needed and it's a good example of all the other things we need to know what does a just transition look like as you move away from things that you don't have a specialist how do you make sure you don't say to people I'm sorry you're no longer required how do you make sure you keep those people in work and how to provide a different sort of future for them and their communities it's one of the things I say on a relatively regular basis is as well as skills for the future as well as our employability plan to try to bring people back economically inactive as well as thinking about what happens to children my sons aged and older is that the future of work is almost already here in ten years time the people in work the great majority of them are already in the workplace so part of what we still need to do is think about how we give people skills already in work to make sure they remain in work in their current job as a job will change or in getting moving one industry to another and that's one of the things I think we'll be able to do more on in the way we are with things like personal learning out here in Wales on to the table in an open and serious and sustainable way where the UKM is often not possible I often end up having a case me more serious conversations with UK ministers when the cameras are on and their officials aren't in the room but it is essential for us to do the job set out from the stab nation nation and actually make sure we do have a UK economy that works for the nations and the regions that make it up and also a UK economy that's serious but I'm tackling the quality Thank you very much Thank you very much for all of the food for thought then last but not least, Menly you've been allowed to turn the slide off and this should be taken Thank you Torsten and thank you not just for the invitation to talk here today but more about prompting us to consider the issues that are raised in the report in the context of the Welsh economy Thanks also for allowing us to be here at Swansea as someone who spends far too much time on the train to London I do appreciate the kind of effort that goes into that commute What I thought I'd try and do today is outline some of the areas where I agree with what's in the report provide some then hopefully constructive challenge about some of the areas where I think the report has potential limitations in the context of the Welsh economy and try then to look for the kind of solutions that we might do to kind of get the best of both worlds and I'll leave that very much to the audience to enhance So, where I agree is in this long term perspective the need for a longer term strategy for the economy and whilst obviously policy analysis needs to consider the immediate I think there is a risk of being distracted by the current kind of economic crisis the kind of economic crisis that we're hit with and that we do then the longer term objectives That's really shown in the report how important the context is the fact that we're facing a crisis at this time when there's been a period of stagnation or austerity previous economic crisis means we have less resilience to deal with it and what we need to do is ensure we're on a longer term positive growth path We have got some things to say about so as has been mentioned what we've seen is growth has improved in terms of employment so what we've seen is more people gaining work Wales converging on the UK in terms of employment but as rightly identified where we haven't seen the strength is in productivity and what we're going to need to do with productivity if we are to raise living standards in the future In relation to that clearly we want to look at the drivers of productivity but for me also raising productivity and raising average living standards also helped tackle the additional challenge of inequality so I think it's far easier when we've got an economy a rising tide lifts or boats when we've got more resources to think about how we want to allocate them The final comparative static exercise otherwise is that we've got limited resources and we're just looking to change individuals so that means we've got to take or someone to give to someone else if we've got more resources I think it's much easier then to think about how we allocate those It's not going to be the first time that anyone's talked about productivity in this room and I think that illustrates how difficult the challenges we've been talking about it for some time Wales has challenges not least because the UK productivity has stagnated so we've now got a gap between the UK internationally but also in terms of a regional league table Wales is down the bottom relative to the UK average To the extent to which the comparisons in the presentation between Wales and London were useful I think it was really useful in highlighting for me what are the kind of core drivers of productivity So, human capital anyone here may speak before education skills I would also include health in that as core drivers of individuals on kind of economic prosperity but also of the broader macroeconomic prosperity The other thing that was listed was kind of capital equipment for individuals so the same individuals could be more productive if there's more equipment to use and thinking about the link then to that the lack of business investment in the UK relative to internationally The third element that stands out always for an economist is agglomeration in economies It's not discussed so much I think in other contacts but it's the benefits for economies of scale being co-located In that respect I think there is a useful information in terms of how we think about infrastructure, how we think about knowledge spillovers how we think about sort of proximity to suppliers But I do think that that analysis perhaps has limitations in the Welsh context So when we look at that thought experiment and we try and think about in practice how might we implement if I would grow for who are needed in Wales then clearly that would mean that the UK would be thinking about investing in large second cities For me as an economist that makes sense because clearly there's gains to be made in terms of agglomeration from that but for me as someone that lives in Swansea is Cardiff is Swansea really going to be one of those second cities that's invested in The second element of that really is that that analysis focuses very much on productivity it kind of neglects the potential downsides of some of that approach not at least how do we facilitate that in terms of housing infrastructure the congestion the house price type of issues so there are downsides of that kind of agglomeration approach and I think then in some respects that focus on productivity in that extent does is distinct from some of the discussion that we had about sort of disposable income or potentially quality of life In that context then if the UK is not going to necessarily be investing in Cardiff, Swansea, Welsh cities then I have concerns about regional disparities that may arise of that and the fact that Wales may still be periphery and if the resources are invested elsewhere then that actually might exacerbate that regional disparities and you can think about exactly the same in the Welsh context so you may say the Welsh government have a role to investing in Cardiff in the Welsh context but you've got the same potential intra-regional disparities that are likely to emerge so what would I take away from it I would take away the fundamentals which is human capital is an investment in physical capital and then try and work out how Wales can capitalise on what we know are agglomeration economies without necessarily facing some of those disadvantages that's clearly a difficult challenge I'm not saying I've got all the answers but there are clearly ways perhaps with digital infrastructure with other forms of communication and transport links that might bring cities together they may allow us to develop the benefits of agglomeration more broadly to try and share those out so things like can we use remote working home working to kind of have the benefits from agglomeration but at the same time don't create such spatial disparities so I think the challenge for us is to ensure that we understand those drivers but that we utilise them to fit into the Welsh context great great now at the beginning I said that one of the things that needs to have a strategy rather than having a kind of feature most strategies have no relationship to actual strategy because they are either a list of things someone's doing I don't know if there is a Scottish Government strategy if you want an example or they have no trade-offs they have no sense of what you're trying to achieve and they can guide those to your decisions so one of the things that's been in that that's really important is that if you have a strategy it means you don't just say what you're going to try to achieve you say why it's hard and what the down sides are so I want to just keep this off for them to get to questions focus on the big one that sits within the framework of how we're coming up with the UK wide strategy or how it would affect Wales with the pros and the cons which is what that is in all sense again so here's a simple version which is we want UK productivity to raise about that like it does but most people do and it raises wages and raises people's benefits and we think a route to doing that is recognising that the UK is its uniqueness is about its service specialisation it's not that it doesn't have as you say lots of really good manufacturing sectors but they're small relative to most other countries in terms of export against exports and the gap is large we're very low initially specialised in services and it's not just financial services it's basically all services financial property cultural things universities so here's where it gets hard then we say right we need to do more of that well that activity happens in larger cities generally or people close to larger cities so then we say we can't do that one in London because capacity constraints are really big so we've got to grow a range of second cities around the United Kingdom that's Cardiff that's Birmingham, that's Manchester that's Leeds, you can put the list or you can find the most if we did that it would reduce regional regional inequality within the United Kingdom you'd have lower income productivity gaps between the regions and nations of the UK but this is when I'm going to come to you to give you some more but you would probably have higher inequality within those regions because that's called a trade I think you should tell yourself you're going to do everything to minimise that you're going to build the houses where they need it so that you don't get health prices pushing up and pushing down people's living standards in the places where you're going to build a successful economy and you'll tell yourself that you'll connect the entire region really well so there'll be none of that but history says you are unlikely to be a complete brilliant government so you probably won't get it all right so probably inequality will go up within the region even though it will come down within the United Kingdom is that a good idea I think it's one of the things we've actually had to grapple with previously actually so there's a bit of a phrase in parts of Wales where if you ask where an investment should go the answer is ABC Anywhere in Cardiff and there is a problem with that I think that some of that is about the way people work together or don't and to always get some of that and that those relatives do go into how choices are made but actually the problem is that Cardiff is too wealthy compared to the rest of Wales actually the cardiff compared to the rest of the UK is only average so it isn't a high high wage city and actually when I look at my part of the city that I represent in Cardiff actually the southern part of Cardiff is really poor if the southern part of the city of Cardiff was a local authority it would be bigger than Murthartinville and it would be poorer whereas the town of Panarth where I live is a lovely middle class town you know actually relatively high income so our challenge is both what we do to advantage Cardiff to help it to grow and what we do to make sure Cardiff isn't left on its own if the question was do you think we should grow in Cardiff and forget about the rest of Wales answer as we know I'm not saying that from said but I recognise that there are traders at where will people go it's one of the things we are trying to do we had John and Paul just do some work for us on the positive points about the fact that there are opportunities in Cardiff but in other parts of Wales too if you compare that to other parts of the UK property values are lower whether people want to buy houses they are lower for businesses to want to invest and our challenge is whether we can get the right level of skills into the economy where people possibly want to come here there is also a post-pandemic opportunity for people that might want some other quality of life for us to offer you've got a coastline here Cardiff does never beach like Swansea does you've got an opportunity to do this and live here and if you can work remotely for somebody rather than having to get on a trade to a much wider city all the time then actually there are people that want that trade of quality of life to them as well part of our challenge is how far can we do that and what can we do to make sure that it's part of what Rob Stewart was talking about and being honest not to Swansea represented us annoying the room but I think that 20 years ago Swansea wanted to be Cardiff and was annoying that it couldn't be there was a tension going on in Cardiff I think there was political stability in the city of Cardiff and that allowed the leader to do some things that were unpopular and they won't go into a section of that particular person but actually I think Swansea in the last decade has been much better at saying what can we do in Swansea that is more unique and it's responsible and isn't simply trying to say we can be the same as Cardiff and everything is doing and so that I think is part of our challenge what will work best in different parts but it's like saying you can't recreate the advanced manufacturing aerospace cluster that exists in north east Wales it's a really significant plus and it draws people in a big trap to work here right from Anglesey and into England and I think that's part of the challenge how can you have speciality where you can have real economic growth and higher wages and how do you ensure people get to and from that and a vision that doesn't simply say to people your future is to be a daughter in town of Cardiff that won't work OK, very good Menly you're good so let's have a total false binary if you could have a bit richer but it would mean higher inequality good idea you can't make me answer that it's clearly a trade off you have to have some national element to it which mean that you have benefits nationally but recognising that there are these trade-offs and that if you're going to invest you will get greater return for it in an urban area in a larger urban area but I think that really what I said about thinking about the connectivity and how other places benefit from the growth of Cardiff or Swansea is the way to make sure that we don't have to take that binary that binary choice right, let's get some questions and if you want to answer the question because it's too hard I'll ask everyone this question whenever I go and do anything outside of London which is like, do you want how much do you want the higher growth how much and do you want the trade-offs and you can minimise them building lots of houses, transport and if you don't know then you won't get as touched right, if you want to get first come on, I don't mean none of you some of you are going to be buying books on the answer come on, let's give us a question at the back Thank you, well as Vaughn has mentioned me indirectly twice to this sitting and I suppose I don't want to respond I thought Melanie's challenge and can I first of all thank you Tawson for this event and the work you've done on the Resolution Foundation it's good to have a legal think tank which is very transparent about its funding as well Anyone wishes to donate or be transparent about it too? Take cash checks Sorry Yes I was finance I was economic development minister for five years as well I don't think this issue around I'm not sure it's such a binary choice you can have economic growth and productivity and no one has actually mentioned anything to do with climate change or the challenges and the critique of growth that brings so or because Britain it's just a huge regional contra inequality which has been well attested it's the huge sub regional inequalities and Wales particularly I don't think it could just be just as much as anything but Cardiff I represented this constituency for 11-12 years and it was then the National Assembly and one of the reasons why two thirds of Wales qualified for European aid and was able to apply a delegation of state gains was because of those huge inequalities The danger is that those inequalities are growing I've all mentioned several sectors you mentioned semiconductors you mentioned creative industries and I established a creative industry strategy If you look at where those jobs are they're almost exclusively in Cardiff and South Wales so those are high productivity jobs I know the leader of the council is not here this week and yes there has been a big investment locally at least in the city do but if you look at where that investment has gone for example the arena next to this building and it's a very laudable achievement but entertainment and hospitality are low productivity low value added sectors so while there's a boost in terms of construction and you'll see lots of development in Swansea that huge amount of life is student accommodation most of that is developed by property companies private equity companies many more global the jobs will be low pay they come from that and the contribution to the local economy will be fairly minimal because most of that profit most of that income will leave the city and that's my concern is that and your colleague Christian showed that in the productivity variation in Wales and Cardiff and Wales came out there's a huge contrast between Cardiff and South East Wales and the rest of West Wales similarly in North Wales contrasts between the D-Side area to clear out Airbus and North West Wales so I don't think these issues can be dispersed because politically they're going to be increasing the big ones the other thing I'd say is hardly anyone's mentioned education skills it's interesting before devolution in 1999 so Wales were with Ireland that was virtually disappeared since devolution it's all been about Scotland largely which I think were around the cameira of powers if you go to Ireland like I do it's incredible to see the difference in that country in the 30-40 years lots of reasons for that but one of them was a very clear sectoral approach around the economy a few key sectors but relentless focus on education and training particularly around the FE skills level and you can see that now with the OECD please a report Ireland regularly comes near the top I know there's criticism please and I think it's a valid indicator and I know Wales has done better but it's still a problem but the other thing about Ireland was not only it performs well on literacy, literacy and science but the gap between the least and the most disadvantaged peoples is one of the narrowest and I think one of the dangers here but you may see the report came out earlier from the educational policy institute which showed that educational disadvantage had hardly narrowed in the last 10 years in England and Wales and if that Wales had performed worse in England now if we're not able to crack that then to logics then we're reading in the struggle about improving productivity great loads of food in there normal Irish wind for even bigger gaps because let's take a question from here and then we'll go back to the panel I'm Laura, this is my first visit to one of these events so I'm a strategy manager for Imperial Tobacco in Bristol some of the things you've said tonight are very relatable so I'm actually one of an attack and one of the things I've struggled with is and what's happened with Covid has meant that I can actually Wales, essentially if I want a good job and work within strategy I can't get that job in Wales currently I need to go to Bristol, I won't now, this is great businesses in Wales, Tiger Grebel one of them, Pederim that I'd love to be a strategy manager for and Fortune Sally's don't reflect the same and one of the things from my personal experience that I recognised is this cost of living crisis my salary has an actual interest in like inflation I work for a global company and the reason being potentially is because the shareholders and this company is answerable to the shareholders now with these global companies that have a big investment in the UK providing more jobs for people how can they be held to account to help with this inflation issue and with the pay because I'm probably classed as a middle classer in that potential and that's kind of one of the immediate issues I've seen for myself and the second one is being within the NHS now being from the values is one of the poorest areas in the UK having gone through personal experience can't be having to wait three hours while I was having a heart attack within the NHS within the hospital all I care about is the nurses, the doctors, the porters get an investment in terms of the pay and now they have to strike in order to get that now I'm just wondering where the link between the UK, the Welsh economy links into the NHS because ultimately health of people, health of my family, health of myself unfortunately I can't afford a trailer when I look at my family and I just whilst I understand this is a strategy for the next eight years is it a strategy for the next six months and why we're moving on to that Great question we definitely haven't got a strategy for the NHS for the next six months because that's a very hard job Why don't you kick us off as loads of it I mean we had education skills we had why don't I get a good job in Wales so many different things but I think education skills and health has always been as long as I've been doing this job it's the thing that I personally think is critical to Wales what we've seen is gaps in education gaps in health and we know at an individual level health education is key for your own needs and it's key for the border I entirely agree with you it's early years for me it's sort of that intergenerational transmission and it's too late by the time we're talking about skills and the population so personally I do investing in the much older time frame obviously I'm not a policy maker so it's much easier for me to say that but that's what I do and I think that's where we can get the higher return in terms of kind of living in Wales and potentially getting those jobs I still believe that even though sort of remote working has declined relative to the pandemic time I still think there are opportunities for Wales now just because it's peripheral in nature to take more advantage of that so people will be able to live in Wales more benefit from all the sort of quality of life no housing pricing but still get some of those high paid jobs so I think there are ways that we can get those equilibration through remote working Christian why don't you touch on some of those and then I'll come to Vaughan for lots of words so I think sort of maybe framing it in terms of the trade off you were speaking about before I think a lot of what's now been said sort of points towards the importance here of delivering that growth but also connecting it to regions where transport but also connecting people from more disadvantaged backgrounds to these opportunities via education sort of ensuring that the education system provides people with the skills they need to achieve and to reach sort of the high pay and high productivity roles but also to then work on improving conditions and pay in these non-tradable sectors which might not be as productive such as in retail but where sort of labour laws and regulation within this country can do significant things to sort of improve dignity in these types of jobs and ensure that they have security and pay stability while doing so so I think all that's been pointed towards is sort of the way in which we ensure that some of these trade-offs are mitigated but also while there might be increases in equality as a result there are ways in which sort of over time by enabling access to opportunity some of this dynamically sort of reduces Thank you I think on the point about how to pay rise what happens in the firm we work on there's a big challenge for us about the way in which our economy works at other parts you know, thinking about the US economy as well do you find real unevenness in culture so some people are driven by shareholder value and that's where the profit goes and there's enough profit that goes into keeping workers there as opposed to a different version and you see this in the UK, US and other economies as well where they have a different bargain on how sustainable they want the employment to be the term conditions they offer the expectations around how profit is used and what goes out to the company as well and that sort of extractive model is what we have real challenges you see in the care centre we talked a bit about earlier the care centre is very driven in large part by people extracting profit not every part of the care centre you do see non-for-profit organisations that reinvest their profit but it's part of the real unevenness to introduce the real living wage is the care centre people do a really important job I've been completely squeezed so there's had to be something done to make sure that doesn't happen so it's no surprise that a sector struggles to keep older people particularly when the economy recovers you find people leaving that centre who go into work in the supermarkets and other places so there's a real challenge to understand what you're making on the health part I think it's got a part I know that many of you have noticed this when I was the health minister I was always interested in the future of the economy because I understood that where people were relatively better off health outcomes were better so it's not a secret health outcomes and economic outcomes map over each other greater problems in one greater problems in the other and for me that also is the reason for our economic activity and inactivity rates people's health burden, they're still in work they're less likely to be productive and part of the reason why we're out of work and economically inactive is their health and you see that's actually got worse actually since COVID it's hard to understand really how much COVID has to play with it's definitely got worse in that sense as well and the problem is we've lost lots of people and we've lost a number as well but I think when you think about the health and the opportunities to do something about it that's what our employability plan was trying to set out investing in people's health is an investment in their economic activity and it's about our constant challenge to improve people's health literacy not to help me and the government but actually to help themselves to help the community to catch me if you have better health outcomes you'll be more productive and eventually to have to live well for longer as well and on the I guess it leads into sponsoring it's a bit of a character to say anyway not everyone quite feels that way but it's a sentiment that I think has resumed it and that's partly a bit of the kind of it's both more cooperative with its regional partners in the south east Wales than it might have been in the past it's all sort of partly because of the different mission that other people are looking at and taking and as well as the points you make about hospitality and leisure services and opportunities to do that in this area there is also you'll be aware that some of your your time as a health minister chair there are resources in office health but in the life sciences centre around FISA chose to come to Swansea instead of other parts of the UK and during the time as a health minister as a health secretary actually asked FISA whether chosen to come to Swansea and it was because of the way we set up because there are opportunities more to do I think in life sciences and taking advantage of the way we organise the health system and having to be a real plus for people in the life sciences centre so I do think Swansea recognises and needs some higher productivity and high wage areas too as part of what it is and I don't go back to skills skills being crucial to the economy but I disagree with the investment in early years we shifted more of our investment into early years a challenge is how much more can we do and towards the spot of the trade-offs putting more and more money and expanding our childcare offer again we wanted it more to expand the childcare offer to make it affordable for people but it's how fast we can go that is the real challenge the same with skills I didn't ask for skills to come with the economy portfolio it doesn't at the time because it is one of the big things we can do to improve prospects for the future and our challenge will be the investment in that sector including the portfolio makes sure people don't close off activities at the time they're 14, 15 and they've not actively chosen not to do things but it's no longer an option for them as well as what we're then doing post 16 as well so it's easy to talk about what's the right outcome and what people are doing and the challenge is getting people there and taking everyone with you so education skills certainly key to our future now we said to all of our trade-offs so you've got a choice you can have a drink or you can go to the fun fair basically the choice you face we can go home and prepare for the football but before you do that can you thank our speakers for the effort they've made today on a cold wet night it's very much appreciated thank you for your thoughts I hope you'll get to have a chat later if you don't drop us an email with the answer if you found it have a good night everyone