 Welcome back folks. Dow. Dow right now is up 39. That is except 28. S&Ps are up one and a half. Let's go over to our MMS to Teddy Cake Stack as we do each and every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. You can reach Teddy every trading day, folks, at forex-trading-unlock.com. That's forex-trading-unlock.com. Teddy Cake Stack, what's going on, brother? Morning, guys. How you doing? What's going good, man? Hey, we got Fed Day today. We're going to have some movement in these currencies. We do have Fed Day today, you know, and it's pretty interesting last week how we were talking about the dollar pushing the move towards the end of the week. And we got the rebound. We were looking for that possible profit-taking move. So now the really interesting thing is to see what's leading and what's not with the dollar today. We have the euro and the pound, the two big weights in the dollar index that are positive, but the U.S. dollar Swiss is the one that's making the move. That one fell out of bed today. So, yeah, the other ones have been rallying since Friday, but the Swiss was kind of holding kind of neutral underneath these highs, and then today it released. So, and the interesting thing is, remember, we were talking about the strength in the dollar, where was it really the dollar, or was it the weakness and more of the other lesser measures? You know, and if you look at the New Zealand dollar as well as the Australian dollar, they're not acting like the other currencies are against the dollar today. So it's kind of, I would say, a balancing out. You know, it was end of the month yesterday, unlike the stock market where they try and settle positions and things like that. Currency traders are different, you know. So we're heading into this Fed time, you know, and I think one of the key things they're looking at are the numbers that came out recently. The GDP number and the earnings numbers. So if we didn't have this dovish Fed or this global dovish basically across the board central bank leaning, I would say that they would probably be leaning towards raising rates right now, you know, to kind of slow things down a little bit. So it'll be really interesting to hear if there's any talk of that today, because that's been pretty much off the table. Now, Teddy, how do you look at, like I have the euro up here, right? Now, how do you look at, like when I look at this, you know, to me it looks like it comes back inside its range again, but how does the currency trade look at that? Is that saying that the euro has a shot to go higher now, or how would you look at that? That's a really good point. Now, if you look at how it's traded, like right now it looks like it's a corrective upside move, because it's been basically in a bear trend since the end of March, right? Yes. So if you just look at it from that short term view, it looks like a corrective rally, and especially because it's coming back into that mid-range, where it's basically been chopping around. Right. It just looks like a pattern, kind of like the old sine wave, you know? It's just like you see it kind of just balancing up across a median line, you know? It's basically the 112 half to 113 area. So if you're just looking at in the short run, I would say expect choppy conditions and kind of look for this to kind of be the buffer zone. Okay. Now, if we have a difference of opinion with the Fed today, that's when we can see, if you take like that recent high back in the end of March and then also into the high of mid-April, kind of use that downward sloping trend line. If we reach that and then get up to the 113 half area, that would be a very bullish sign that at least takes off the bearish sentiment for the Euro-US dollar trade. I got to be breaking that trend line. So you're looking at the same way. You're just breaking the trend line, which is pretty cool, right? Okay, great. All right. Sure. And now if that momentum breaks, see that's the thing is, it's been in the short-term bear trend. And no matter what, the Euro has not been able to gain strength against the dollar. It can't get up to that 114, 115, 116 area. Yes. And usually when you can't get below 111 half, 111 or 112 area, the Euro bounces, goes back to 116 and it'll try and spike to 118. We failed to do that so far this year. Right, right. So I think that if you, especially if the Fed comes out remotely changing the dovish sentiment, and then you also have to look at Venezuela. If this coup happens and it becomes bullish and good for the American train zone, then you'd probably see a little release in oil. Okay? And if the release in oil happens, then those are other positive things for our economy, which may make the Fed think twice about staying on this dovish stance. So it'll be interesting to see what they say at 115. I would say that if you're in a position right now with the currencies, obviously use a tight stop. Be careful of a really whipsaw trade in the afternoon. And that would be really, like I said, if their consensus is that they're worried about the growth. And I think that if we were dealing with a different Fed, like a Fed of a year ago or two years ago, they would look at these GDP numbers, the earnings numbers, and say that the economy is overheating, in my opinion. Yeah, no, no, there's a lot of moving pots right now, man. 3.2% GDP, right? Yeah, right, right. Exactly. And these are things that weren't expected. So to see how they filter that will be very interesting. I think that oil will be a key, especially if the Venezuela thing can get smoothed out because that means supplies are definitely going to increase again. Yeah, and we just got the EIA numbers, man. It's almost 10 million barrel built. Right, right. And it's the refining part that's hitting us right now with the gas. Yeah. So we'll see how that balances. I mean, this build can't keep on going into summertime and gas prices not eventually start to go down as they turn from whatever the winter grade to the summer grade. But those variables I think are kind of interesting because we talked about before last week in the last couple of weeks how the dollar is driving earnings in the market and may continue to do so into the third and fourth quarters. So if we do get a stabilization in Venezuela and if the Fed remains in this dovish outlook even amidst these growing factors, then I think you're going to see a very big acceleration of the economy. And this is where we might see a turn in the dollar, okay? Because as oil drops down and as the economy continues to go up, then we should probably see the lesser majors as well as the majors go, but not just go back into the trading range, but to go take away the trend again from the dollar strength. That's pretty cool. Yeah, I see what you're saying. Right, exactly. So the dollar wouldn't even have to move that if the economy is going so good, it's just like everything else. Those other economies will start going better so their currencies can go up versus the dollar. Yeah, cool. And what it'll do is it'll have a balancing effect where most people would say as the dollar weekends, it's not good for us. But if we have an accelerating economy and the dollar gets weaker, that means our exports grow, correct? So in all those things, it'll balance out our earnings, which I think means that unless we have a major to shake up like Venezuela goes bad, oil continues to rally up to $80, $90. And something else like that, those are the only things that I could see that would really shake up the economy towards a really negative way, in which case you're going to see some incredible movement in the dollar versus the major currencies. Yeah, and you know that, there's no doubt, it's nice seeing oil come down today. I mean, because gasoline, you know, none of us buys barrels of oil, but everyone buys gasoline, man. I was saying, I don't want to see $90 oil. No. No. No. Diesel's cheaper than gas. Yeah, well, that's pretty sick. Yeah, right. Yeah. Exactly. Listen, folks, every trading day, you can check out Teddy at www.tradex-trading-unlocked.com and that oil just took another dive down, right? Yeah, perfect. You're gonna love that. Teddy, you have a great week safely. Oh, hey, I hope you did good golf last week, man. You were going off golfing, man. That's all right. I'm sure. Hey, we look forward to speaking next week, man. Take care, guys. Thanks, Eddie. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. We have oil right now at $63.18. $63.18. Come right back.