 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got four pretty fun games on tab for this weekend in the NFL divisional round We're gonna break down all four from a betting perspective by talking to dr. Ed Fang asking him what his number say about all those matchups and Where he sees value for this week over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonness. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power I can add Michigan wins the national title Detroit wins last week. Will the state of Michigan ever lose a football game again? Probably it'll happen at some point will it happen this month We'll talk about that later in the show But it's fun to be at the divisional round right where you get rid of some teams that maybe shouldn't have been there like the Eagles What's that Mason Rudolph We get a little bit got a rib Mason Rudolph and as and as as well as Joe Falco had played Turn out quite so well last week. No, we didn't get too many close games except for, you know Rams lines last week, but I think it's gonna be I think we're gonna get some better football this weekend So I am particularly looking forward to the action I was confused why people were so mad about all the the wide margins And I realized this because I was on the right side of them from a betting perspective So like I love the fact that that Brown's Texans game got out of hand like Texans money line Packers money line like hey, I'll think about any day when I'm on the right side of it So right that may have tainted my perspective on how the games went down for sure I had put a Song someone written a song about Joe as an ode to Joe flacco last week And I was working on my newsletter and and I sent it over to cleave TA because I just had him on my pod last week I was like, hey, did you see this and he's he was like, yeah, there's like ten of those out there this week and And then and then it turned out to be kind of like bad luck and To pick sixes at a critical time in that game and it was that game was also pretty interesting because cleave I would not bet against the team He would not recommend it But he essentially recommended it because he was like well, you know When Stroud was gonna play flacco a couple weeks. He was minus, you know, Houston minus two and a half and You know, my numbers definitely were we're on market there, but I feel like I should have I mean hindsight is 20 20, but I was like, yeah, I had a pretty good week So, you know, I'm not not complaining at all, but right It would have been nice to also cash a pretty easy Houston ticket Houston plus two and a half right at home Yep, he's the most plus two and a half. They closed at one and a half though So it did move toward them as a week went along So and I think that was right as we saw with the results as well, but also just like Betting on regression for a 38 year old quarterback who was unemployed a month and a half ago Probably a good thing in general. So I think that from that perspective to it did make a lot of sense Well, don't any spots quite like that for this weekend, unfortunately But we'll break down all four games outline where Etsy's value for this week at Fandall Sports Book But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow JJ Zachary is with us to break down player props across the divisional round I have my first look at the divisional round of betting markets as well from Tuesday a couple of those numbers have since moved so the value primarily gone there But still gave my insights on all four games on Tuesday on the show You can find those here on the covering the spread podcast feed a faddle TV plus and the faddle YouTube page as well when it comes to the NFL playoffs You got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on faddle one game can mean a lot of wins Fandall America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line in the spread There's all sorts of prop bets like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown Plus every day. 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So anything stand out to you as far as futures go prior to the divisional round The Super Bowl odds look interesting. I feel like it's probably shaded a little bit too much towards San Francisco We're calling the juggernaut. Well, we'll get into that a little bit later But you know, I don't have any calculations on it I do have a ticket for Niners Raven Super Bowl 13 to 1 probably about two months ago and it was suggesting me by my son and He had, you know, some YouTube theory about why why those two teams should be playing in the Super Bowl, but I looked at my numbers and I looked at You know all my ratings was like those are two really good football teams and You know, it's not quite 13 to 1 right now Probably more like was 230 if I was just actually looking at the conference odds So it looks like, you know, we're probably talking. Oh, hey, there we go. Plus 230. Hey, that's that's pretty good. And that's actually You know, the Sumer had it at 26% last week. Yeah, and it looks like it's gone up I guess that makes a little does that make sense? I mean maybe with Dallas out, right? So Dallas, I think losing is is one factor I don't think the Rams isn't gonna be that big of a difference because like the Lions are pretty good, too So right, I think the Dallas loss was probably the primary motivator there Right Yeah, actually, I wonder like I the cash out has been like Non-existent on that for weeks. So I wonder if it's back Yeah, I've got a Ravens plus 50 Super Bowl ticket that I keep checking that the cash out number four And I've not gotten anything that's been good enough to justify it If you read it, you got something. What's that? Like I don't even have an option. Oh really. Oh, so I do I have And it's been like a profit for a while But like if you read Ed Miller's new book Interception it goes through kind of like the math He can go through and deciding whether a cash out's a good bet and like I just haven't gotten a good offer at all on it And it hasn't been close to me to consider it So like I feel like I'm inclined for now to just let it ride I'm okay betting against Baltimore if the situation arises where I think it's a good value to bet against them, but like Honestly, I'm disappointed that I haven't gotten a better offer on that and even though they're you know, plus one plus two 70 right now. So it's like at least tempt me a bit, you know, kind of thing Right. I thought that section in Interception was really interesting about the cash out because they make the point that it's a new bet Right. Yeah, and it's a new bet that you can only make if you've made a prior bet, right? And so let's just talk about like NBA spreads and like in-game betting They actually have this proposition in there that says well, let's just bet every single spread So that you can find if in efficiencies because look, I mean Through price discovery the books are gonna be pretty good at getting that pregame spread correct, right? That's not the case for cash out And in the game. So can you just make bets that you know, you're gonna lose a little bit on and Then take advantage of cash out when it is appropriate. I think it's an interesting idea but definitely a place to find value at the modern sportsbook and The cash out options definitely vary by book to like some if you try to cash out immediate Which you shouldn't do because it's kind of shady from like a like a Money laundering perspective like you shouldn't do that because you'll get flagged and you should get flagged for that Like catching out bets immediately The offer on an immediate bet is gonna be different from book to book So keep that in mind as well when you're doing those kinds of things because you're not gonna get your full stake back in a lot of places Whereas some places you will but again, don't get yourself flagged as a potential money laundry account while you're while you're at it They're just be wary of that Let's talk about the first game of the week That is the Houston Texans at the Baltimore Ravens right now at fan dual sportsbook Ravens are nine and a half point favorites total in this game He's at forty three and a half right now and Texans have stepped up at in two must-win games But now Facing what was the best defense in football the second half of the year and actually if you include last week I've actually got the Ravens the best defense overall this year now taking over Cleveland spot in that in that number So can the Texans do enough here to cover a big number against the Ravens? I think they can I mean my numbers have Baltimore by eight here So that is certainly suggesting value on Houston. Can they cover? Yeah, it's certainly like I would only lean that way I haven't bet this Houston obviously has been playing really well with CJ Stroud and just it just How he is absolutely? Elevated the offense and you know, how much credit does he get how much credit does OC Bobby slow it get Does Bobby slow it get a new job? There's so many questions here, right? Like what if CJ Stroud went to the Panthers? How how how would that have gone, right? And So anyways, he I look at my adjusted passing success rate. They're seventh But they have just been really good 52.4 percent success rate last week against Cleveland and you know the NFL average is about 42 percent So look, they're gonna they're gonna get tested at Baltimore. Baltimore is certainly the better team here I Just see like I think this is gonna be pretty close. Sorry my prediction is pretty close to the market I don't see any value there but Yeah, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if they cover I guess I would be surprised if they actually pulled the upset here Yeah, the money line right now for the Texans is out to plus 370 I also show value on the Texan side here talked about that on Tuesday in the preview the the first look show where when we were talking on Tuesday It was an eight and a half and you saw a lot of nines nine naps out there So it didn't make a lot of sense to bet them then I do think there is enough here to consider the Texans You're showing a bit of value with the being an eight I have it at seven Baltimore minus seven in this game right now in large part due to the passing efficiency You loot you alluded to with the Texans the reason I'm not like Pounding down the door to take the nine and a half is because it is in an indoor team going outdoors which does The decrease expected efficiency the Ravens defense like I said is very very good obviously that's accounted for in the numbers, but Overall, I think it's concerning enough where even though I do show a good amount of value And I've been on the Texans a lot this year still even a bit hesitant with it at nine and a half so I Do show value there if you're looking for a bet here I think that's the better bet now. I talked about the under on Tuesday That was one is a 45 and a half. It's not under 43 and a half So that's numbers that numbers moved a lot and I've got that at 43.7 So no longer value there So if you were if you were looking for a bet in this game actively I would say the best one would be taking the Texas plus nine and a half But honestly It's not a big enough value and I have enough concerns about it where I'm like not pounding the table So it sounds like we're kind of the same page or value in the Texans but not enthusiastic about actually betting it Yeah, I would agree with that Jim and also another thing to note about my numbers with Houston Like I've thrown out the prior on this coming into the season. They were 31st out of 32 teams Do not a lot was expected of the Houston Texans and You know saying this is the second worst team and having part of that in your prediction doesn't really make sense right now I think Yeah, it makes more sense to just use what the data from the current season use the data from markets and You know, it gets me pretty close to the market So so I feel pretty good about that and it's also interesting to think back to the preseason too because I had Dr. Eric Eager on my show and he gave me Houston as one of the surprise teams yeah team that could do a lot better than people expected Despite the fact that at the time that you know, they were gonna start a rookie quarterback And at that time we didn't really think they had much talent at the receiver position, right? That Assessment seems a lot different now, you know after the season that they've had So it's all pretty interesting. But yeah, so so my prediction is definitely involved It's a little bit different than than I already given this last year and I think with Dr. Eager too It's probably it was probably based in part on the fact their defense heads and pieces Derek Stingley juniors played really well recently didn't use hurt be any part of the year So makes sense their defense was not playing well then but got him healthy will Anderson healthy enough to get through there So they've got like impact guys and impact positions left tackle wide receiver quarterback defense event corner That's kind of how you want to build the team. So fun teams. Not sure what we'll see from them this weekend Let's talk about the Saturday night game That is the Packers at the 49ers right now a fan dual sportsbook spread is nine and a half Total is 50 and a half up a half point from where it was earlier on this week and the Packers passing offense And their efficiency continues to rise but now at facing a juggernaut of a defense here of a team I should say what's your view of the Packers in this one, right? I mean, I think that San Francisco is not a juggernaut. I think they are a very good NFL team They are at the top of my ratings and how I rate 32 teams, but they're certainly beatable Baltimore showed that pretty recently and should the Niners be the Super Bowl favorite. Yes But I certainly think they're far from unbeatable. So my numbers in this game have San Francisco by nine points. So you're including some home field You're including some a little component for the fact that they didn't play last week And maybe that should be more because they really didn't play the week before But honestly this Green Bay Packers team is the most interesting team in the entire playoffs to me We talked about it last week and everything that we talked about last week still applies this week Jordan Love and the Packers by my adjusted success rate have had the best offense in the NFL since week 10 and That is the stickiest part of football That is the most predictive part of football if you're gonna be good at throwing the football That tends to persist and we're getting a reasonably large sample size on a young player like Jordan Love It's not the same as a 38 year 38 year old guy like Joe Flacco that really stunk last year, right and Flacco we had a smaller sample size It's not like we're getting Mason Rudolph This is believable and Also on defense defense tends to be less predictive So when you have the worst past defense in the NFL The way you tend to go is up and strongly so sometimes we really didn't see that in the game against Dallas They didn't pick six in that game But Dallas had inaccessible 50% passing success rate while above the NFL average and that was with Pretty much looking horrid for big parts of the first half CD lamb looking like he had never met his quarterback Before for large parts of that game So the Green Bay defense didn't play well last week they need to harness the power of regression For real this time if they're gonna have a chance at beating the 49ers But you know no team in the NFL is unbeatable, right? I mean, this is a team This is a league of regression to the mean so I will not endorse them as a juggernaut. They're certainly beatable Probably doesn't happen this week, but you never know Yeah, I think what you're saying here is expect points and I'm hoping their point because I did take the over in this game It was 50 at the time It is now a 15 and a half a fandom of sportsbook over as minus 115 The minus 115 part gives me pause and saying like I would still take that but I've got that at 52.1 right now and 50 is not a huge key number as far as betting totals go like a 27 23 kind of thing with land there but it's not a I guess 30 to 20 but it's not a very prevalent one where a 51 is So it is still being below 51 I do think there is at least some value in the over in this game because like you said like Packers defense Didn't they haven't been great all year. They've had some flashes for sure but overall not been the world's best defense and I think that the reason why I felt okay taking the over at here Despite the fact it's a large spread sometimes you can see I could be one-sided I think the Packers move the football if they're down big because Jordan love is beneficial enough to be to be good through the air and that to me gives me more confidence in taking an over in a Game like this where I do think the spread is justifiably large So to me because I have confidence in the Packers to move the ball put up points You know if they're down big later on That's why I feel good about taking an over here because I think that both teams will score points for all four quarters Regardless of the script we see throughout this game. Yeah for sure. I definitely see that right I mean, I definitely agree that the Packers are probably gonna put up some points if they are down in a second half Alrighty, let's talk about these Sunday games and begin things with the buccaneers at the Lions my two sons Quarterbacking this game Baker Mayfield versus Jared Goff right now at Vandals Sportsbook Lions Six and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half and and we've talked a lot about how the Bucks are A bad team on early downs throughout this year and they have been they did have their best showing in the season at least By my numbers on early downs last week against the Eagles But that was against a broken football team. So I don't want to put a lot of stock in that So can the Bucks do it again here against the Lions who are very much not a broken football team right now? Yeah, for sure. I mean the Lions definitely aren't broken, but their defense isn't good I actually thought they got pretty lucky to This week the Rams had more overall yards They were able to move the ball the difference in the game was essentially that they got a couple stops The Lions got a couple stops in the red zone were able to eke out a one and Then you know it From kind of a fan perspective if you're a Lions fan like who did you want to play Tampa Bay or Philadelphia? And I actually still wanted to play Tampa Bay I just think that they are the weaker team They don't have the ceiling that the Eagles have and as bad as the Eagles played You know the Eagles have a ceiling that the Tampa Bay doesn't Tampa Bay is very NFL average on both sides of the ball And I actually make this I have Detroit by a six point six points This actually moved towards Tampa Bay yesterday It was six in a lot of places and I was really hoping it would get to five and a half in which I definitely would have bet the Lions But it didn't get there. It's back to six and a half now I think this is a great matchup for Detroit as long as they play their game don't turn the ball over And the defense isn't too awful. They they should be fine in this game I don't particularly have a lot of faith in Baker Mefield. Mike Evans is great, but This is not a great football team in Tampa Bay and Detroit should be able to win this game Yeah, and like I said, I think a lot of last week with Tampa Bay Showing up on the way down for the first time this year was due to the opponent. Now the counterpoint would be They had a lot of drops in that game with Kate Otten and Mike Evans having like key drops You could argue they should have won by more in that game and like then if the Bucks win by More than 23 are we talking about this as being a six and a half point spread at that point? I still think we probably are personally But I think that overall you're getting a game here where the Lions? Yes, they may struggle to run the football against this Buccaneers team, but they've shown With Jared Goff, they can be efficient enough through the air to beat you that way as well So I completely understand where you're coming from My numbers been higher on the Bucks, which is annoying because I don't feel that way about them personally It's it, you know, right it wants overall passing efficiency and they get there They get there via the stupidest means of all time by relying on late-down magic for a Quarterback has been the scrap in three separate times in the past 18 months or whatever it is So I'm lower on the Bucks and my numbers are so to me This one winds up being a stay away and not seeing enough value there with it being At six and a half It sounds like that's a stay away for you How much would it need to move for you to have interest in laying the points here with the Lions? I would love to bet Lions minus five and a half or anything better Maybe some money line. I haven't really fully decided on that You do make the point that Tampa Bay had a lot of drops But they probably got an equal number of yards and productivity from this tackles from that's true That's very true. So I think it's kind of a push there. Yeah, they had an amazing offensive game overall I I Say most likely that does not continue even though the Detroit secondary is is not great No, they're definitely not they're healthier now than they were with CJ Gardner Johnson mean back But it's still not a good secondary and we saw that several times last week against the Rams luckily though Sean McVeigh kind of a coward when it comes to punting fourth down decision-making so that definitely to bail them out there Let's talk about the final game of the weekend and potentially the most fun one That is the chiefs at the bills were right now a fan dual sportsbook bills are favored by two and a half That's held pretty steady throughout the entire week Even since things opened during the game on Monday total in this game is 45 and a half and this chiefs offense Showed some life last week against Miami despite rough conditions Facing a bill's defense that has a lot of injuries at live backers. What's your view of this one ed chiefs versus bills? Right. I mean, I think there are some really interesting matchups in this game Kansas City's defense has been incredible second in the league in points allowed per game But it's really been the past defense that's been incredible and the run defense has not been good They're near the bottom of the league when I look at rushing success rate adjusted for opponent That's a bad matchup against the bills who have really been running it with James Koch really well They're near the top of the league when you're talking about rushing success rate if I were coaching the bills I would definitely mix in a heavy dose of run plays because I do think they're they're gonna be able to find success there But the thing that really flips this game for me is just the injuries that Buffalo has in the secondary we've talked a lot about Buffalo's defense and you know, they've been rated better There's just a wide variety of opinions depending on whether you look at passing success rate or yards for pass attempt or PFF grades And I've definitely been making the argument that Buffalo secondary is better than the numbers say Simply because they do have some talent and all that talent is on the injury list now. It is insane I mean, this is like the definition of cluster injuries, right? Turn on Johnson had probably a concussion last week against Pittsburgh. I don't think he came back Christian Benford had a knee injury another corner back Pretty sure he didn't come back because this nap count was super low Rassoul Douglas who you know some consider to be the best trade deadline acquisition in all football He didn't play and then a safety tell wrap has a calf injury None of these guys practiced on Wednesday or at least fully practiced on Wednesday. I think some most most of I forget who actually Karen Johnson practice Out there so he might be able to clear in time, but he was the one who is out there Right This is the definition of cluster injuries even before the cluster injuries. My numbers had Buffalo by about a point. So my numbers are right in Casey ahead of Buffalo I think there's value in Kansas City Plus two and a half. I actually sent out some members when you keep grab plus three at Draftkings. I think it was yes It was Tuesday. I think I sent out Tuesday. Anyway Yeah, I mean just with the cluster injuries, I just think I think Kansas City's right side here I have value in the bills, but the cluster injuries are why I've not pulled the trigger on that and it the other thing is like right now if into a sportsbook if you want to lay the two and a half you're laying minus one twenty two to get there and I Feel like if you're like a new better You need to understand how big of a difference there is between minus one twenty two and minus one ten minus one twenty two The implied odds are fifty four point nine five percent and minus one ten fifty two point four percent That's a big difference in betting. So I know you could say ah, it's minus one twenty two It's the same point number like who cares two percentage points two and a half percentage points makes a massive difference so When I see the two and a half there are the minus one twenty two there that to me allows me to Lean on those injuries as being excused for not taking the bill So I have not taken that yet despite the fact we talked about that on Tuesday It was minus one twenty two then briefly got to minus one twenty on Wednesday at some point but it's now back to minus one twenty two and To me Ed the biggest reason for avoiding it is those injuries you alluded to because they matter a lot especially For a cheese team even if we ignore the secondary and focus more so on the linebackers Where it is this cheese team at in its current state beat people they beat people with underneath passes to Kelsey and rice And they beat you with is a Pacheco Stores don't stop in the ground. So and that's gonna be show up a lot with those linebackers So we both kind of wind up in the same place where I'm like, I don't really want to like Bet the bills here, but it sounds like the plus two and a half even money. That's not a three yet So would you be looking at the money line for the chiefs at plus one twenty six What do you think is the best route for betting them if people can't get that three that you alluded to here? Yeah, I mean, I like cheese plus two and a half. I would definitely bet it especially a plus 100 Okay, so even money in the cheese plus two and a half is where Ed likes this one for the bills and the chiefs That's all we got here for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs next week the conference championships That is going to be a blast We're gonna see either Jared golfer Baker Mayfield in the NSU championship game pretty pumped about that personally very good for My quarterback prospect model looking very much less stupid than it has at times in the past And if people want to find your newsletter find your podcast, where can they do that? What's going on with those things this week? I? Had Evan Silva of established to run on the podcast this week It was a great conversation, especially if you were Green Bay Packers fan I highly recommend listening to that and you know, how he would answer the argument Well Green Bay's offense is not going to continue to do this well because the receivers are young and they suck So check that out wherever you get the football analytics show and then yeah check out my free Sports betting email newsletter every Saturday I put out five no get Saturday, which is my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics Not just my own stuff, but stuff from other people as well Check that out at the power rank dot com You can find the chat with Evan at the football analytics show as well to get that find Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and check out fan to a research on Twitter at fan to a research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across Thursday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow break down some player props for the divisional round of JJ Zachary So this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network