 Hello and welcome to the CMC Markets Monday market update webinar with myself David Madden market analyst here at CMC Markets Today's date is Monday the 19th of March 2018 and the time has just gone at 12 15 GMT quarter past 12 p.m. UK time now what I'll be doing as always with our With our webinar. I'll leave the risk warning slides up on the screen here in front of you for you guys to have a read through It's very straightforward it essentially states anything that I cover in the web and sent in the webinar today Is entirely my own thoughts views and opinions and comments and they should not be taken as explicit trading or investment advice This is something that is quite standard practice in our webinars And also the videos that we produce and also keep our compliance department very happy While you're having a read of that. I'll say I'll talk about What are the main macroeconomic news stories of the of the past few days? one of the big ones is the is that was it's a pretty much a breaking story right now In relation to Brexit It would appear that a an agreement about the transition deal that the UK is going to have after it leaves Leaves the European Union in 2019 a transition period will run up to the end of 2020 So that'll give that will extend the time period For the UK to potentially look to have a as the name is set a transition deal You can smooth over the process of leaving the European Union and any things that need to be negotiated and hammered out Will effectively be allowed A extra time to actually to work on so we've seen a push higher in the pound on the back of that Cable has jumped quite a bit nearly up nine tenths of 1% today On top of that, it's actually Also, we've seen a quite a sizable sell-off in euro sterning. I will be covering those currency pairs in a bit Talk about what's going on in the equity markets Essentially uncertainty surrounding the potential trade war It's been it's no secret that Donald Trump isn't too happy with trading relationship between the United States and America and China at the moment because it's too much an imbalance which is favorable to the Chinese side So Mr. Trump is potentially talking about imposing You know between say 30 and 60 billion imposing tariffs on between say 30 and 60 billion dollars of Chinese imports and that is what that is was weighing on the markets granted. Nothing has really been further Announced in relation to this but nonetheless equity markets are still nervous about it What we're gonna do as always with the webinar a quick run through with the main topics of the week if you go to our website See markets.com forward slash Ian hyphen GB news and analysis You'll see that some of the updates that we do throughout the day get updated The update they made morning update I did show you have 10 o'clock is listed here and my colleague Michael's early morning update Which is uploaded every single day Around 5 a.m. Or 6 6 a.m. Is uploaded here We'll have a quick look at the week ahead and this gets posted to this portion of the website every Friday afternoon So the quick look at the major Economic corporate events of the week. So on Tuesday tomorrow, we have third quarter results from FedEx tomorrow on Wednesday We have UK inflation and wage data On Wednesday, we also have full year figures from Kingfisher. On Thursday. We have the French and German PMI here in my reports coming out on Thursday We also have an update from Ted Baker the clothing crowd and on Thursday We also have the IPO from Dropbox and I see but at least big one watch out for Friday. It will be next full year results So with that in mind the major Corporate and economic events that we focus on let's take a look now. What's going on in the major markets? Just a one moment, please right So go through the process here. What we're looking at is essentially What we're looking at here is a We go to the major markets itself and it take a look at what was going on on the On the the major markets I'll go through the indices the major indices and go to a couple of commodities and I go to the major currency pairs And we'll go from there So taking a look here at the 100 what we can see here is that the footsie and a 30 It's the correction is looking quite a bit shaky and especially given the fact that the British pound is doing really well today So we're seeing is actually we are seeing a Increased sell-off because of the valley in the British pound the inverse inverse relationship between strong pound and the 100 is holding up So what you can see here is that we had the major sell-off In each annually February the market pushed higher here. It bounced Corrected itself here as you can see here. We pushed higher here, but we didn't take off the most recent high We didn't take off the late February high. So we've already created a Lower high and we're not pushing lower again So if you take off this area here, which is in around the 7,060 region if you take off this area here That'll be the creation of a lower low as well And we could be looking heading back down towards 7,000 or perhaps even as low as 6,919 which would be this area here and if you go through that area, we could be looking heading back down towards 6,800 so Given the relatively weak bounce back that we've had here It didn't the push higher here failed to take off the late February high I suspect we could be looking at a scenario where we take off this the early March low and we could be looking heading back down towards the February low So keeping an eye on the German market now what's going on over in Germany? It's a similar situation on the back But not not not as bad as you can see here after the major sell-off market push higher Bounce the bounding is managed to almost completely undo the correction that I had and managed to push higher here But yet again, we do appear to be in a bit of a limbo land why we remain south of this area here 12,600 it's likely then the outlook will remain negative a break north of 12,600 could then potentially put say the 12,741 price on the current which is in around the two-day moving average And if you go north of that you could be looking heading back up towards 12,911 Which would be the 100-day moving average, but like I said, why we remain south of 12,600 this area here It's the outlook could remain negative and we could really be heading back down towards the well the recent lows of 11,711,692 in this area here. I'll turn our attention out what's going on over in the US The US markets are sort of a sort of it appeared that the American markets have somewhat Slightly stalled in their recovery. So we've had the major sell-off We've had pulled back most of the ground that we've lost drifted lower again on the correction Or we are pushing higher here. So we do appear to be range bound for the time being we do appear to be getting support from the 24,710 level, which is the 100-day moving average here Notice how on a couple of occasions recently it did manage to act as support So it's likely that level could act as support again to the upside We are we could be looking at getting some resistance from the fifth day moving average at 25,321 notice how The fifth day moving average did manage. Well, even though it traded north of it on a couple of occasions It's the did not manage to hold above that level. So keep an eye on that area. Should we take out the recent high here? The the march high of 25 of 25,507 Then we could be looking at heading back up towards the February high of 25,821 and then of course if you go north of that, we could be heading back up towards 26,000 if if this Market does manage to drop back below the moving average the area to keep an eye up for would be the March low of 24,213 And of course if you go below that we have created a lot We've already created a lower high So you could be looking at people below this we will be creating a lower low And if you go south of there, you could be looking heading back down towards the 23,830 area this price is the most recent the most recent Very pretty low which coincides with the eternity moving average at 23,363 So the US markets are in clearly a bit better shape than those of the of in Europe. So what we're looking at here on the On the S&P 500 as you can see it's a similar situation, but the S&P is in a bit better shape than the Dow Jones We have the major sell-off the bounce back the correct the Bit of a pullback when the point when the market push higher here at March knows how the high of March managed to take out high or favorite high of February So it suggests that we're continued in the we're still in recovery mode But that so the area to keep an eye up for it at the upside will of course be the psychology important 2800 and if you go north of that, it could be looking heading back up towards this price here here of 2800 and 3800 of course if you go north of that, we'll be looking to retest the all-time highs 2877 Moves at the downside we've already managed to kind of slip back below trade or trade below at least the fifth a day moving average at 2749 if you continue to drift lower from here, we may find some support in around the 2700 area But while we remain north of 2700 the outlook is likely to remain positive as we created as the because that the high here has High here to stick to check out the at the February high But if you do manage to drop below the the March low of 2647 that could be a sign that we are heading back down towards the 2600 area or perhaps even down as the low as the two hundred a moving average at 2585 And if you go south of there, we could be looking at testing at the February low of 2532 But it will say as this the market of superiority coming off here is drifting lower I was seen a fairly steady decline in the positive momentum So we may see a bit of a retesting of 2700 but even if you do get down to 2700 We've already had a higher high here It could be a case of a higher low and then potentially looking to head back up towards 2800 from there Taking a look now what's going on in the gold market as always what I'll do is we've covered some major indices I'll go through some major commodities. I'll go through some major currency pairs But if there are any markets, you would like me to cover feel free to type in the chat box And I'll happily take a look at them So you can see here the price action of gold Since since late January has been Broadly speaking to the downside hasn't been a perfect example of a downward trend, but broadly speaking it is there So after after hitting a multi a multi month high here in January market drifted lower Pushed higher here the high of February failed to take off high of of January Of course the low in well end of the February March managed to take off the low of Managed to take off the low of March February so we kind of we already have a We have a lower low lower high another lower low a potentially this is a lower high as well So if you could be looking heading back down towards the 1300 level and we go south south of 1300 we could be looking heading back down towards 1290 which would be the two or day moving average bearing a mind today's Monday on Wednesday Wednesday, we have the update from the Fed reserve. It is quite likely that we're going to have a Interest rate rise of zero point two five percent from the US central bank In the near in the near term So keep so keep an eye out for that. Obviously there's a interest relationship between the two markets So keep keep an eye out for that but at the time being We are we are seeing a broad kind of negative move in the price of gold So if you do get a rally from gold from here work We look to find some potential resistance possibly from the fifth of the moving average at 30 30 notice How this is a couple of occasions here the market got us drifted up towards that level But didn't quite get there it acted as resistance a couple of occasions here and even when it did manage You could have firmly break through it was quickly back below it and the couple of occasions recently were failed to actually get north of it Beyond that we were looking towards 1340 and of course if we go by north of 1340 We could be looking at testing the recent the recent the February high of 1661 So looking here. I'll take a look on the on the daily chart for a for brain crude oil See the big picture is so basically essentially for the last for the last nine months We have been in a broadly speaking positive trend for the oil market even though it has given us some ground recently So since June of 2017 a classic example of higher highs and higher lows all the way along After hitting a multi-year high in January, we had a fairly sizable pullback a fairly sizable Correction in the oil market, but it has managed to be broadly speaking push higher from here So there were some the worst unfair is wondering is it is it going to be a case of the market turning over on itself? Or is it simply is this a case of we've had a great run for six months seven months the markets taking a better profit a potential you look into could have Fit back in to the wider upward trend. So we've had the correction here the markets pushed higher Drifted lower here again or no appeared to be pushing higher here again So while we remain off the at the March lows of 63 32 the outlook For for brain crude could be positive The area to keep an eye up forward to the upside will of course be the latest February high of 67 6793 and if you take off that area you could really be heading back up towards 70 And we get towards $70 a barrel We could be heading at the at the the recent 2018 high of This vision 28 high of 7138 But if you do manage to take off this level here We could be looking at heading back towards February loads of 62 And if you go south of 62 that would then be a lower low And that could be looking heading back down towards 60 dollars a barrel or perhaps even low as 59 59 51 This area here. So keep an eye out for that. Why we remain off the the March lows and the February lows It's likely that the at that the at the wider positive trend is going to be still in place It's a similar looking chart on WTI, but obviously the levels are different BP chairs. Yes, I will I will I'll cover the old offer. I finished this piece here on WTI I'll have a look at the all markers. I love the look of BP shares It all kind of ties in nicely together Semester nation solid upward trend for seven months. The markets come up Come off in February, but a profit taken for pushing higher here The market has been in a bit of a better range bound recently But overall the positive trend is still intact. So the market has drifted lower here while we remain north of the City the 60 dollar region, which should be in around the March load It's likely that the overall arching positive trend will continue and we push on higher from here It could be the first area to keep an eye for will be the tourney moving average at 62 77 and if you go north of that area to keep an eye out for then will of course be the late February high of 64 30 and if you go north of that if we're looking heading it back towards the 66 dollars a per barrel if you take out six and sixty dollars a barrel keep an eye out for the late for the mid February lows of the in 50 50 a dollars and 10 cents But if this is going to be a key area to watch out for we go south of 50 a 10 We could be looking at heading back up towards 56 or perhaps even low as down as 55 72 so the BP shares I'll take to take a look at the No wider chart just get a better view what's going on big picture So what we've seen out of BP the last couple of years broadly speaking the 30 positive trend positive upper trend since Since February 2016 to two for two years. We've brought it to the market move higher granted. We're fully aware we have seen the market Come off recently, but the kind of wider trend is still looking pretty positive. What's it? But what strikes me very much is very what I think is very striking is the two and a week moving average Which is in around this step this red line here? 44 pounds and 37 notice how quite a few occasions it did manage to act as support And actually that's kind of both bit of support and resistance in 2016 So that the 200 week moving average most have a lot of form as acting as support Throughout 2017 so keep a laugh if you do manage to be drifting lower. We could be looking at retesting The 200 week moving average But as I said it has acted as support so it may act as support again in the future So what's slightly concerning is the fact that after the market once again all hit his multi-year a multi-year high in January of this year as I saw a spike in BP shares the market has come off quite substantially since then we're actually now back below the 200 day moving average, which Does give me a bit of it does give me a bit of is a bit of concern If you manage to kind of remain while you remain south of the 200 day moving average, which comes into play at 479 It's likely the mark has gone drift lower I as I said if it does just lower it could be drifting heading back down towards the two and a week moving average at four thirty eight So keep an eye on the day So it could be heading back tension up not towards four thirty eight with the 200 week moving average comes into play If we do manage to retake the 200 day moving average the first area You should keep ending up over the kind of 490 area here to the fifth of the moving average Because notice how there's a couple of occasions that acted as support here and support here So it does have a bit of form is acting as both of a support and resistance in the last few months, so it's likely that that could be Influential level going forward Of course, if you go beyond 490 Psychological five pounds a share will then be a nerd keep an eye off or and if you go north of five pounds a share You could be looking at heading towards the the late January high of the good a 420 region And then if you go beyond that you've been looking at it towards the 2018 high of five pounds 36 I'll take a look now at a few currency pairs. I hope that was okay for you Thomas It's been a fairly quiet diet in terms of corporate economic announcements We've had some Italian industrial production numbers caught the morning time. They were okay. They were There was it was probably at a decent truly on a yearly basis of 4% that compared with the previous previous years ago report of 4.9% so Solid growth, but it's cooling which is about a decent summation of what we thought we've seen out of the eurozone recently You're very welcome Thomas. No problem So the big picture is that the Euro dollar has been in a fairly decent upward trend for some time now It had a bit of a correction is that September to November from November onwards It's still in a fairly solid up our trend to be honest. It's been in a fairly quiet It's in a fairly On interesting currency pair recently while we're gonna sell but while we're above kind of the 122 region or more importantly They did the the March low of 121 54 while we're north of that It's likely the outlook is gonna remain positive And there is to keep an eye out for to the upside will of course be the March high of 124 49 because it's sort of We it's difficult it's struggling to get north of 124 and if you do get north 124 You got to keep an eye out for 124 49 and if you go beyond that it could be like me I'm back up towards 125 and then 126 and 127 would be on potential in the currents I break south of the of the of the March low could present us back down towards 121 92 And then below that again down towards the the 120 area, but you know by and large It's in a fairly I said a fairly positive upward trend still Coming out of the pound versus the US dollar as I said at the top of the webinar It's at a decent move today given the news that the UK and the European Union have agreed on the transition period So a wider view for the last year has been very positive for the pound versus the US dollar If you draw a law between the lows of last March with the lows of August ground it and always traded through it a few occasions In November, but it's not managed to hold above it while pound starting remains north of this trend line It's likely the outlook is going to remain positive And lo and behold we've been edging creeping creeping higher here throughout the month of March than news as it has been broken at the UK and the EU have come to an agreement on the transition period Well, you know, it's jolted higher. So we're comfortably after off the trend line support and now we're pushing higher 11 now Not seen for nearly a month. So keep an eye out for the the the mid-febri high of 141 141 50 if you take out 141 50 We could be like getting a backup towards the 143 area and then once you go beyond that because of 144 145 at carries keep areas keep an eye out for if the market does manage to riff lower You know, we could find support from the 140 area the one Sorry, just south of us not too far away from when we are here in the 140 area Or perhaps even down in the kind of 130, you know, they got 138 80 or 138 90 region But even if you do manage to drift lower as long as it's well above this this trend line support It's likely that the outlook is going to remain positive for the pound versus the US dollar Take a look now what's going on at Euro starting like I said at the top of the hour Top of the webinar. It is was under pressure today given what's been going on in relation to the in relation to the British pound So it's been it's been all on interesting ish currency pair recently. It's been sort of range bound for quite some time but Even though at the beginning of the month that the Europe did manage to kind of snap out take out the February and January highs which is looking quite bullish for the euro starting. What do we have as you know? We've had a quick large succession of downward moves. The markets coming off here heavily We're back below the two-day moving average We've taken out the late February lows if you could be looking heading back out down towards the January If you could be looking at it back on towards zero spot 88 0 0 or perhaps even as low as you could December and January low of zero spot 86 89 And if you go south of there, we could be looking heading it back back down towards zero spot 88 itself Move to the upside are likely to run into resistance from the two-day moving average Which comes to play at zero spot 88 93 and if you go north of that We've been looking towards the march high of zero spot 89 67 Then also as the markets driving lower here We're seeing a solid increase in the MACD histogram the MACD indicator So the markets driving lower and the momentum is clearly rising as well So make a little victim is clearly rising as well. So it's it's like in the nature We get we continue to see further losses for the euro versus the British pound In a second now, I'm going to come on to the US dollar versus Japanese yen Which would be my last Market to look at for the session unless of course you is what is anything else you want me to have a look at So dollar yen has been in a solid our trend since November as you can see here lower low lower high a bit of consolidation through the December and January but then of course lower low lower high lower low lower high so on and so forward while we remain south of This this price area here 107 32 Tottenham sides with September low The outlook is likely to remain negative for the US dollar versus the Japanese yen and keep Keep an eye on the the march low of 105 25 That'd be noted keep an eye out for in terms of potential areas of support and because south of there We could be looking heading back down towards 125 and then the 104 area If you do manage to break north of 107 spot 32 keep an eye out for the 108 area And then if you go north of 108 We really would need to be kind of taken out to say the either 109 78 area or perhaps or perhaps even the this high here of 110 48 before before we could become more confident that this wider negative trend has been negated Is there anything else on the markets? You would like me to have a look at feel free to shout out What I would like to show you on our trading platform This is here is the insights Insights can be found on the market pulse Second option down insights here some of the updates that we do try to dig a positive insights Some of the data alerts in terms of say corporate Announcements or sorry, sorry economic announcements or breaking news stories get updated there There'll be a video of this webinar will be posted on insights within the next hour or so I also want to talk to you about chart forum Chart for me can be found also under the market pulse third option down Chart forum essentially a chart forum What we do is take a quick snapshot of a particular market and write a few words about it and talk about what's going on and price action I'll talk about the potential areas to keep an eye out for As I mentioned I showed you on our trading website where you can find our week ahead We also have an economic calendar, which once again is thought under market pulse is the fourth option down market pulse it'll show you the Economic calendars that are that are penciled in and then once as soon as the numbers are out They will be populated in the actual column and you can see here We have the forecast and the previous numbers so you can get a gauge of what the market is expecting What the market was doing the last time the report came out And I see about but at least what I want to show you is future and other webinars So obviously Today is the Monday the 19th of March tonight at 7 p.m. GMT 7 1900 GMT 7 p.m. UK time we have the trader development program part 3 the traders mindset you don't have to have been Logged in to the previous two ones to to to tune in for this one So that's a feel-free designer for that on Wednesday the 21st of March at 1930 GMT 7 30 p.m. UK time we have the trading strategy defined Uh webinar and of course next Monday At 12 15 will of course be the be the Monday market webinar Um, if you've seen if you don't have any further questions or comments, I will look to wrap up the webinar there You're very kind thomas and uh, we are very much appreciated Same to yourself Simon. Thank you very much. I'm glad you enjoyed it So from all of us here at CMC markets this week have a good trading week and good luck Thank you