 EVs in Hawaii impact on CO2 emissions level today here on Hawaii, the state of clean energy. My co-host is Mitch Ewen, our primary guest at Wave, Wave Mitch, likely he did that, good work. And our primary guest is Kathy McKenzie from HNEI and our immediate guest is Peter Russo, a spokesman for Hawaiian Electric High Peter. Wow, exciting, what a group, an important show. And Peter's gonna talk first, he's gonna talk about a new program that Hawaiian Electric just rolled out to incentivize batteries with clean energy installations, which is very exciting and probably takes us to a new level on the road to 2045. Don't you agree, Peter? I agree, that's one of the main objectives and one of our, we hope outcomes of what we're calling battery bonus. We are paying an incentive, never say Hawaiian Electric never gave you anything, because we're paying cash money to people who have an existing solar system to add a battery, add energy storage and people who are installing or planning to install a rooftop solar system to add energy storage to their system. So it's about, we're good for about 15 megawatts of storage, the first 15 megawatts, the customers who apply for the first 15 megawatts will get $850 a kilowatt hour, which on a system of five kilowatts, if my math is correct is 4,250 bucks. So that's significant change and we really hope people step up and take advantage of it and the next after that, the tiers step down a bit, but the point is we really wanna encourage energy storage. We're building our own large batteries, some of the new solar installations and wind installations have their own batteries, but we have well over 80,000 customers out there, about 60,000 that customers here on Oahu who have rooftop solar. And if they all have batteries, we're gonna be moving forward at a very fast clip. A couple of questions, Peter. So the total, at least in the report in TVN was $4,250. I mean, if you calculate it right out to the max, that would be the total. What would a battery system cost? In other words, how much of the cost the battery system is covered by this incentive? Yeah, I'm not in the battery business, but from the people that I talk to who are in the business, they say this would be somewhere between one third and one half of an installation of that size. So it's a pretty, not small change, and it's a significant addition. Already of the new installations that we have applications that are in process, nearly 80% of those already planned for solar plus storage. So this incentive is just gonna make it easier for them to do what they already wanted to do. And if anybody was not planning to do solar plus storage, this should really incentivize them to talk to their contractor and take another look. Economically, how does this compare with the benefits they would have had? I had the legislature friendly gotten around to pass the bill to give it, what a tax credit through a similar installation. I don't know the numbers. I do know that in some cases, people can qualify for the federal tax credits, kind of thing we don't like to give advice on, but we recommend that people talk to their tax preparer and understand, because this incentive will have tax implications for everyone who takes it. And it is gonna be considered income. We're gonna supply the forms to the customer and the owner of the system and send them to the IRS. So you should not, there are always considerations we're not suggesting anybody jump in without taking a careful look. The other thing I would say is that it's very important to understand. Most people who have solar on their roof are already getting compensation for electricity they send to the grid, right? The older installations have net energy metering, which is full retail value. The later ones of the last five years or so get a portion of the retail for electricity they send to the grid. And they're still gonna get all that. That's not going away, that's not effective. So taking this incentive does not, in any way, change their participation in these other programs. And what we are asking, what we require for taking the incentive is that the customer commits to a two hour period in the evening during the peak, during which they will either use the electricity from their battery for their own home needs or business needs on site, or if they have excess, they will send that to the grid. And so we are doing this for a good reason. It's going to help to solidify the grid. It's gonna help make the grid firmer and get us forward in that respect. And as a side benefit or as an additional benefit, we believe a lot more people will step up and want to have rooftop solar, which is the ultimate objective. By 2045, our strategy says we have to basically cover every roof on Oahu that could take a rooftop solar system. Few roofs can't do it, they're in the shade or whatever. But if we don't do that, we're gonna have to cover over the landscape with solar with wind and we can't do that. We're not going to do that. So we need to get every single roof that possibly can have solar to have solar. And ideally those will all have batteries. And that will be a very comprehensive renewable system alongside the other pieces, which is the big solar installations, a couple of wind farms, some biofuel. And so it's an important part of getting to... This is definitely gonna change it from the point of view of the homeowner. And one question, it's just specifically the comment from me, you don't have to opine on it, but it seems to me this is depending on your tax bracket, this is the substantial amount of money that you're gonna get for this kind of installation. And it may be near or maybe even exceed, depending on your tax bracket, what you might get if that bill were finally passed. And I suppose we should not rule out the possibility that someday it will pass, but it hasn't passed in the past five years in some education. The other thing is, you mentioned that it can, that the individual homeowner can use the power for his home in that two hour period, or it could go to the grid, which both seem perfectly useful. But the question is, who decides? Is it automated or does the electric company decide or does he decide who decides? Now it is basically an automated system controlled by the mechanism of the solar and the battery. The system will be set up, so it gives some priority to the battery to be charged so that by six o'clock in the evening, there is some, there is a charge there and then it'll prioritize serving the household and then with excess serving the grid. So it is basically insurance that we do not have to serve those households at that time of day. Obviously six o'clock there's no more solar being generated, so all those solar systems that do not have batteries are we have to supply the energy from our Hawaiian electric plants and the other plants that serve us. So this is a way of saying, we don't have to worry about those guys, they're gonna take care of themselves and if there's extra, they will send it to the grid and the grid will distribute it to the people that don't have solar for whatever reason or the businesses or whatever. So it is a particular kind of demand response that is scheduled, it's required. So it's not responding to some difficulty or anything like that. So we don't control it, it'll be controlled as part of the agreement and people do have to meet their commitments and we believe they will. So there is a system for termination and so forth. Obviously if somebody falls back out of it, we have to be able to terminate them. But in general, this is not gonna be a problem. So we're very optimistic that this is gonna- Before we leave the subject, I wanna ask a couple of other things. Sure. One is, what are the limitations on the program is there's a specific limitation about how many, what years, how many kilowatts can be covered by it? What is that? Well, first of all- How do I apply so I get in before the limitation? Very good. First of all, it's only for Oahu. Secondly, it is limited at a total storage of 50 megawatts. So that's a lot of systems. If you figure the average or typical one might be five kilowatts, 50 megawatts is a lot. But for sure, we think it'll be taken up fairly quickly. The first 15 megawatts customers who apply will get the full $850 per kilowatt. Second group will get 750, I think. And the third group will get 500. Still nice, but obviously we're trying to make this happen quickly. We have good reasons to wanna move this program along. So we're saying, you know, first come first serve and what you need to do, go to the website, HawaiianElectric.com slash battery bonus, all one word and read it over and just understand the very basics about it. And then you need to talk to a solar contractor who is gonna be installing a battery for you and is gonna be able to tell you what it's gonna cost and have the other particulars of the system that's required, you need to have a building permit and so forth and so on. So it's not the kind of thing that you can do on your own. You really do need to talk to your solar contractor. If you've got one, if you don't have one, we always say get three bids and pick one who you like because they're giving you a good price and giving you good service and so forth. And they'll help you figure out how much of a system you can afford. The idea is to do it right away though, if you wanna get in on this. I don't think, I wouldn't dawdle. But it's not gonna, it's not gonna disappear in the next 20 minutes. I think we're gonna see it over the next couple of weeks, a substantial uptake in this. But take your time, think about the tax implications, think about any other concerns you may have. And but then, but yeah, but don't wait around. This is- Okay, so Mitch, you have questions, comments, concerns. This is your big opportunity. Yeah, I have a comment. Is this a made in Hawaii solution? Are we the first people in the country to be doing this kind of program? Not exactly. I just saw Arizona Public Service is doing an incentive program, but theirs is more about emergencies. There's more, they're more, we'll give you a bonus to put in a battery. And if we need to draw on that battery, we will. So it's not a unique program. It's not a unique approach. But I think in terms of the absolute requirement, it's kind of unusual. We are saying this is a firm commitment. This is gonna be scheduled. Every day of the week, including weekends and holidays, your system is gonna be taking care of your own needs first and then sending the access to the grid. And so that's, I think, I don't know if it's the first, I don't know if it's the only, but I think it's fairly unusual. This is part of making up for the termination of coal in September of 2022. It's creating a greater supply of renewables to do that. That's right. Right in line. We've been planning for this for many years and we've been doing a number of things, some of them visible, some of them behind the scenes to get ready. This is another thing that's gonna help us be ready so that when AES turns off in September 22, you won't even notice it'll be, we're bound to determine that it'll be seamless. So yeah, it's all part of that. Okay, Mitch, you've got something else? I heard you start something. I just wanna, one other thought is batteries do degrade over time. I'm assuming there's some factor that's built into this whole system to allow for the fact that batteries do degrade over time. Sure. The actual program has a time limit and in a couple of years, there will be an option for perhaps a different kind of program that people who are in it will be able to say, I think I wanna stick with what I've got or I wanna go to this new program. It hasn't been developed yet, but it will be. So yeah, we understand all that and certainly the engineers who are running it understand it. So yeah, there's some things still to figure out because we're moving quickly, but we're gonna figure them out and we're gonna do the best we can for our customers. And I know I wanna get out of the way. I want Kath and, you know, this is, I'm glad to talk about this for the full hour and a quarter or whatever. But I wanna say thank you very much for letting me come on for this and I'm gonna drop out and listen to the rest of the show with everybody else. So thank you. Thank you, Peter. Peter Rossick, spokesman for Hawaiian Electric. Thank you so much, Aloha. Okay, so now we get to introduce Kathy and Mitch, I'm gonna leave that exquisite experience to you. Yeah, Kathy's one of my colleagues at HNEI and she's been working on electric vehicles and ever since I joined at HNEI. So Kathy, you're world famous now. I saw a copy of a paper that was written based on your work in the London Daily Mail. And I said, wow, I gotta check this out. And that was only like earlier this week. So I think millions of people have probably read at least the substance of what you're gonna tell us today. So I'm gonna turn it over to you now and run us through electric vehicles and the impact they have on climate change and particularly CO2 emissions here in Hawaii. I understand that your study was done based on Oahu and not all of Hawaii. So why don't you take it away? All right, well, thanks so much for the kind introduction, Mitch. And yeah, I'll just note London Daily Mail picked that up from the UH news story, the day it came out or a few hours later. So they were really quick. Yeah, and it's also been in the Honolulu advertiser in the front page last week and then a follow-up editorial that the paper wrote. So it's really nice to see the word get out and see Hawaii in the news. Right, so you have a nice slide deck here and I'm gonna invite you to, we don't want to be death by PowerPoint but it gets a little bit of structured. I mean, this is not necessarily a simple situation here. And so to help us understand the impact of electric vehicles on fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions, let's start wandering our way through the slide deck, starting with talking about the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute. We're part of the University of Hawaii where Research Institute, as I'm sure you've heard from Mitch and I've had the pleasure of working across all the different areas of renewable energy with the Institute and focusing in on electric vehicles and that combination of renewable energy. And so the impacts that I've been looking at are the impact on reducing fossil fuel use and emissions over the years. And of course, some years ago, there was a question, well, you know, why we still burn oil for electricity? So are we really reducing CO2 emissions or even fossil fuel use for that matter? So this study dives into that and this was published in the World Electric Vehicle Journal. I'll give the reference at the end in case you'd like to look. It's a peer reviewed open access paper. So anybody can go on there and have a look for free and download the paper if they wanna read it at length. And so talked a bit about HNEI and the different areas. And so why is it so important for us to get off fossil fuel? I think we've had this conversation for a long time and we're a little bit isolated. So of course, importing fossil fuels like petroleum oil and coal for that matter costs an awful lot of money and we rely on that for electricity and for transportation in Hawaii. I really love this slide because it really shows where we are stuck out there in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. And so this is a really brilliant slide. Like look at all that blue water between us and anybody else. Yeah, this slide actually I nicked it from Leon Roos but he was fine with that. And I like this because it shows when you talk to people on the mainland, it shows what the situation is for us. We don't have our power grids even connected into our island let alone across these massive intercontinental power grids. So we've got a bit of a different situation here and the cost of electricity, the cost of energy total in Hawaii can run as high as 10% of the gross domestic product. So the sooner we get all that renewable energy and good storage like Peter was talking about on the power grid, the sooner we get off petroleum for both transportation and for electricity, the better off we are. So this is looking at a lot of being the most challenging of the islands, the neighbor islands of course are ahead on renewable energy. There's some geothermal on the big island that everybody knows and Hawaii has some hydro power. So in Maui just a lot more onshore wind and so it's a bit easier to balance that solar energy and moving forward in a way we have a good pipeline, a solar power plus battery energy storage coming up and even better now with the new HECO program. And so this information, I dug into the US Energy Information Administration and also to the Hawaiian Electric Company's RPS reports to the legislature each year. And so that RPS report has a much more in depth measurement of the renewable energy which you can see on the Oahu graph here. Petroleum is the bright red at the base which is about 55% of our electricity power generation in the year 2020. And compared with the US nationally that little sliver of red at the top on the right is how much oil is used to generate electricity. So the question comes up because we're burning oil for electricity, what does that mean for electric vehicles? And this is from a presentation from the Hawaii Climate Conference in 2020 just addressing some of the persistent mess surrounding electric vehicles. And today we're just focusing in on the fossil fuel use and emissions. So for this study, rather than look at all the makes a models of vehicles, I looked at the average passenger and average freight vehicles and very efficient passenger vehicles in electric vehicles and gasoline powered vehicles. There's less than 1% passenger vehicles that are powered by diesel on the island. So not too much focus on that, but for freight vehicles of course there are plenty of freight vehicles powered by diesel. So that's included. The passenger vehicles are all light duty vehicles including cars, SUVs, vans, pickup trucks and freight vehicles refers to all medium and heavy duty vehicles, including delivery vans, buses and heavy trucks. So the big difference with electric vehicles is the energy efficiency. This information is from Department of Energy. It shows all the different moving parts of a gasoline car in the chop and gasoline vehicles. Although there's been enormous amount of emphasis to have them become more efficient over the years, they still only achieve about 17 to 20% of the energy stored in the gasoline to power the wheels. So that's how much you get out of that gasoline to move the car down the road. And compared with electric vehicles, they get over 77% of electric energy from the grid. So when you plug it into the wall or the charger you get over 77%. Some get up into the 90% in the efficiency. I love this slide because it really shows you how many parts there are in an internal combustion engine car. I've never seen it displayed like that whereas in an electric vehicle there's very few, actually there's very few parts in an electric vehicle. Yeah. So less to go wrong as well. Exactly, maintenance is about 50%. All the studies are coming out now so far. Of course, electric vehicles are evolving rapidly. What I did not compare in this was the performance. You see a lot of studies where they compare. There was one recently comparing a Model S, a Tesla, no, sorry, the Model 3 with a Toyota Corolla. And in the end, it caused less CO2 emissions. But this, I think, Quantas partnered with Tesla and invited Tesla Model S to raise the Boeing 737 jet. It's available on YouTube, a bit of fun to watch. And it gives you an idea of what an electric vehicle can do and not just Tesla, all of them. They all have instant torque. So it's a completely different experience. And also the towing capacity is fantastic. There's a GM ad, I think it is, I've heard of. And they tow a railway car with a pickup truck. That's another great slide. Yeah, that's a fun one. So in the year 2020, passenger vehicles on the left and freight vehicles on the right, the average gasoline vehicle is the column on the left and the efficient gasoline vehicle column on the right. This is the fossil fuel use over that year, 455 gallons for your average gasoline vehicle and about 200 gallons for the very efficient 50 mile per gallon type gasoline vehicle. And then the average and efficient electric vehicles, the equivalent fossil fuel use in gallons of gasoline that's equivalent at fossil fuel use for the electric vehicles is on the right. And the average electric vehicle uses about one seventh the amount of fossil fuel as the average gasoline passenger vehicle in 2020. Is that taking into account the oil we use or the fossil fuel we use on our grid? That's what this slide's all about. Exactly, yeah. So we're focusing in on the fossil fuel and then on the right, the freight vehicles, you can see the average freight to the average electric vehicle, it's about one fifth the amount of fossil fuel used. So then looking forward for the projections for renewable energy on the left is from Hawaiian electric industries, press releases. So this is renewable energy in the green line going up to 100% and they're aiming to achieve that early by 2040. And then the corresponding fossil fuels dropping off in the orange line. And then on the right is our RPS, Renewable Portfolio Standards Goals to reach 100% renewables by 2045 and the stages in between of the goals and the back dots. Beyond solar and wind resources for Oahu we're looking at technology innovations just as for the renewable portfolio standard to reach 100%, we're banking on some technology innovations and I'll briefly touch on that a little later. For people from the neighbor islands who'd like to see where they are, of course, the renewable energy portion is already further along that curve so they can pat themselves on the back, they're doing well when it comes to this. So then looking ahead to 2050 for each vehicle, the passenger vehicles on the left again, I'm afraid on the right, gasoline is at the top and this is the fossil fuel used followed by diesel and then the efficient gasoline in the dark red about halfway down on the left and then average electric vehicle in blue and dark blue for the efficient electric vehicle. So in 2020, we're seeing that one seventh for the average electric vehicle compared to the average gasoline, that's how much fossil fuel it was using and it drops down to in this scenario, we're looking at 2040 to reach zero fossil fuel in the grid and clearly if you looked at 2045 to reach 100% renewables the line would be a little bit less of a slow and same for freight vehicles and because freight vehicles are generally just a lot larger and tend to travel a lot further every year, the per vehicle difference is enormous. So there's a huge saving there. Well, this doesn't imply though that we're gonna have no fossil fuel cars by 2045 or 2050 because there's cars last more than one or two years. So it's gonna take a while to flush them out of the system. Is that kind of reflected in there or is that? Yeah, I'll talk some more about scenarios as we go through and part of this idea is to look and see the scenarios or to see what if and see what difference does it make? How far can we get? And I do have your head of the game. I do have a slide for the electric vehicle adoption and two projections for that. And so looking at CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions are a standard measure for greenhouse gas emissions. And again, over the space of time from 2020 to 2040 the CO2 emissions drop off for passenger and freight vehicles. And the biofuels and waste to energy of course continue to produce some emissions. And so for simplicity's sake for this study I use the 2020 levels of bioverses and waste energy. Not to say that that won't change but just for this to have a look at what we know now and fix something in place so we can look at these variables of the change in renewables and the change in electric vehicles. Here's the projections for electric vehicles. So on the left is the more aggressive projection with global EV. This is from an international global EV projection to reach 12.25% of vehicles on the road to be electric by 2030 and reaching forward to 2050. It's what happens if we reach 100% electric vehicles or close to that on the road by 2050. And on the right, this is the projection from the Hawaiian Electric Company and their electrification of transportation roadmap. So this is to reach 55% of electric vehicles on the road by 2045. So a nice gradual increase in that scenario. So that does as Mitch asked earlier that does not assume there will be no fossil fuel cars on the road, it's just a graduated increase. And at the end of the line there still will be fossil fuel cars, right? This is the projection on the left if we can go back to that slide with the EV projections. On the left, this is assuming that all gasoline and diesel powered vehicles are gone. They're off the roads and they're electric vehicles. And then on the right, it's assuming by 2045, 55% just over half the vehicles on the road are electric by 2045 and the rest are gasoline and diesel and whatever else. Okay, thank you. So then putting these two together and looking at the faster electric vehicle projection and the faster projection for renewable adoption from Hawaiian electric press releases. So that our renewables reach 100% by 2040 and the electric vehicles actually reach 100% by 2050. The graph, the red lines show the ICE vehicles passenger in the bright red and freight in the dark red. And then passenger and freight electric vehicles in the blue at the bottom. And as you can see it's overwhelmingly fossil fuel use continues to be from the ICE vehicles. And even once we start to replace most of those ICE vehicles with electric vehicles it's still a very minimal amount of fossil fuel use because our power grid is getting so much cleaner. And when I say ICE it's the internal combustion engine gasoline and diesel powered vehicles. And the same trend is clear with the CO2 emissions. So again in the fastest renewable energy and EV transition scenarios, the passenger ICE and freight ICE are the lines in the red and the passenger and freight EVs are the blue lines below and you can see a slight rise as we get more and more electric vehicles by 2035 which is about halfway across this graph, midpoint electric passenger and freight vehicles are close to 40% of the vehicles on the road but renewable power by that point is up to 82%. To go back to the question I was asking earlier you are assuming that there will be steps taken to incentivize electric vehicles and to disincentivize ICE cars, ICE vehicles. But what assumptions are you making to get these current? If that's what it takes for this scenario with these projections in the paper I have also the projections for the slower EV adoption which is the Hawaiian Electric Roadmap reached 55% of EVs. And so it's the same type of scenario development when you look at the renewable portfolio standard when we first started talking in Hawaii about getting renewables on the grid and we had our original mandated goal for 70% which included efficiency I think if I can remember back that far and everybody thought that was a stretch that was crazy, you'd never get to 70%. And now we have mandated to get to 100% and again when it came out everyone went oh that's crazy, we'll never get to that. And then all sorts of other states and nations across the world are adopting very similar targets and goals and mandate. And with electric vehicles and transition to zero emission vehicles whatever makes sense for where you are those mandates are happening in the US and various different regions and states and all over the world. And so because of climate change also when you live in California and your state's literally burning up around you it becomes a little bit more clear what incentives are needed. And I'm not a policy person I leave that to the good policy folks with the government and all these other nonprofits and good people to figure out how best to incentivize that there's a lot going on a lot of different programs around to draw on. I simply looked into crunching the numbers and say well what does it do for us? Well there are some people out there who feel that the decline of ice cars will happen as a market matter. In other words people would be more interested in them for various advertising and technological reasons, cost reasons and they will gradually phase out. There are other people who feel that you need government affirmative government action either in incentives or disincentives. And I guess you're getting the curves from the Hawaiian Electric Roadmap there. But I think if you don't know just tell me but I think that that has to assume governmental action and the curve would be different if the government took dramatic action right now today and said we are not gonna allow some places have done this we are not gonna allow the sale of any more ice cars or in the alternative the government locks up and doesn't do anything and there is no incentive or disincentive to change the curve. In which case as you get closer to the target date say 2040, 2045 then you have to take draconian action and then the curve drops like a rocket like a rock. Am I right? This is all following on the possibilities that there will be a rational decision process going on either in the mind of the consumer or the legislature. Am I right? Right and so if you like essentially the curve we're looking at now would imply that there's some significant incentives federal government as well as state or both one or the other but the electric vehicle transition in the roadmap getting to 55% most people seem to think when electric vehicles reach on par cost with their gasoline counterparts in a few years that upfront cost to purchase when that's on par people will start to buy the electric vehicles a lot more readily and there's way more models coming out now they have longer range the charging infrastructure is growing and leaps and bounds now and it is a drawback a lot of people right now that holds them back but if you look at the plane electric projection it's more conservative it's more of a gradual increase so you might look and there's other scenarios we could do I mean it'd be fun to play around with all sorts of scenarios and say okay well with this incentive we think it'll reach this much by this date and then maybe taper off a little bit or you can play around with all these different scenarios and once you have the basic platform that this paper provides then you can start to plug in oh well what would happen and hey what does this look like on Hawaii Island Maui and what if we bring in this incentive and we think it's gonna have this difference to how quickly people adopt the electric vehicles so the likelihood is going forward the roadmap will change it will change because of market forces many forces at play it will change because of legislative sentiments and Lord knows the legislature does change its mind and Congress that's another study but it seems to me that if you look again Cathy and say two, three, four, five years that curve is gonna be different and therefore the results are gonna be different right so this is the kind of thing you have to keep doing right and this gives you an idea right now to look at those two different projections for electric vehicle adoption as well as the renewable energy projection and so it gives you an idea and one of the things I found with the scenario analysis is that it's very visual and so for people who have a theoretical they're thinking about the pros and cons and the challenges ahead but to have something that we can say well this is the difference that it'll make excuse me and so that's part of the reason with the two different scenarios and one thing that comes out really clearly you can see by looking at this graph is that getting rid of the ice vehicles because we're already well on our road to renewable energy we have a mandated standard one way or another we'll get a lot further along at any rate but with electric vehicles there's no mandated goal with it as yet and so what comes out of this really clearly is getting rid of the ice vehicles and switching to electric vehicles even now it reduces our fossil fuel use and our CO2 emissions. You know Dave Rolf I mean he's a master at doing some of this data analysis from my point of view I think it'd be interesting to look at like what kind of policy can be brought into play or incentives and what's the impact and how quickly will the public respond to these incentives like is it instantaneous or will it's they're still comfortable with their car they can still get gas blah blah blah or is it going to be like a shock and all of a sudden people are going to be dumping their internal combustion engine cars and switching over to EVs is anybody kind of looking at that those kinds of effects? Yeah there's been a lot of work McKenna Kaufman who you'll be familiar with she worked with Sherilyn some years ago and they did a great study looking at the incentives across the country by state and region I think it was and so they've dived into that at great extent and that's really big questions because it raises these concerns and I know a lot of people have they talk about the cost a lot like initially if it's an outlay traditional cost when you're buying the vehicle that's certainly a consideration of course it's good to look at the total cost of ownership so you look at your maintenance costs and your fuel costs over the life of the vehicle and that starts to make a huge impact so depending on how you use that vehicle that already it may be cost efficient when you look at that for a fleet and so forth the buses for example and there's good federal incentives for switching transit buses over to electric buses already so there's a lot of different policy aspects I stayed pretty much focused on crunching the numbers and I might just while we have time move on to the summary of the results that might help put it a little bit in context so in 2020 seven times the last fossil fuel was consumed by an average electric vehicle compared to average gasoline and CO2 emissions were cut in half by the average gasoline vehicle compared to an average gasoline vehicle excuse me by 2035 roughly the life of a new vehicle purchased at the stage 91% less fossil fuel will be consumed and 70% less CO2 emitted with those faster projections for electric vehicles and renewables and just with our passenger vehicles on Oahu by 2045 billions of gallons of gasoline and tens of millions of tons of CO2 could be saved with that faster projection for electric vehicles so that's where it really adds up it makes a huge difference and then finally by 2050 with this faster scenario 99% less fossil fuel will be used and 93% less CO2 emissions by 2050 so again it may be pie in the sky at this stage it may be shooting for the moon but it tells you the benefit of that a bigger impressive change is impressive from reductions in fossil fuel I wonder if you could help me though when you say seven times less fossil fuel consumed less as soon as 100 units of fossil fuel is consumed how does it translate when you say seven times less of that 100 units? yeah and so the slide we can go back if you like the slide early on in the slide deck shows the fossil fuel used in 2020 and for an average passenger vehicle it was 455 gallons of gasoline a year for your average gasoline vehicle and then comparing that to the amount of fossil fuel burned on the grid so oil and coal combined that amount of fossil fuel by energy content the average electric vehicle is using about the equivalent of 66 gallons of fossil fuel and of course it's also running on solar and wind energy so simply looking at the fossil fuel we're dropping that fossil fuel use tremendously even in 2020 because of the efficiency it will also charge directly off the rooftop like my neighbor loved to watch the meter going backwards as he's plugged in his Chevy Bolt or whatever was charging it up so I think it's probably pretty hard to track that in this kind of a study there's gonna be a lot of that I think and I think if you get a more workplace charging you're gonna have people where there's warehouses and there's good opportunity to put in solar like Peter was saying we wanna have every roof covered by 2045 and solar and there's some technology solutions starting to surface to put in charging and using backup battery storage for one but different technology solutions trying to get a lot less expensive installations and multi-unit dwellings like apartment buildings, office towers. So Mitch mentioned earlier and you've referred to it also Kathy that these numbers are to show us the dramatic reduction in use of fossil fuels over the period, the projected period but we want this to be a living breathing report over time and it should be of course faithful with changes in the marketplace and the technology and I guess the sentiment of the legislature but at the same time it should inform the legislature it should inform the regulators and I guess my question tripping off what Mitch was asking you and what you've alluded to yourself is oh, we need to fine tune what they do they should be aware of these processes as these processes exist in your view today and how they change in the future but they should be equipped with, I hate to use this word with algorithm that would change their incentive regulation and legislation so as to meet the goals and I suppose you said you were crunching numbers and I imagine that you didn't go to that level but doesn't somebody have to go to that level to give them, to tip them off as to what they need to do numerically? If you wanted to go to that level and that would be great I actually talked with the Hawaii Climate Commission and Blue Planet and we looked at getting a calculator of this nature onto the Climate Commission's website and at the time it was beyond our budget but if we get some funding and we can put this calculator online and we could extend it it'd be terrific to extend it for each island so that every island can do this and plug in but they forecast and even looking five years ahead what they expect the number of electric vehicles to be what they expect the renewable energy to be and put that online so that you could have a calculator and every time go in and update it that'd be fabulous. Well, I think it'd be helpful for the legislature otherwise they'd be thrashing around they'd have testimony from this interest group and that interest group and they wouldn't have a sort of a scientific extension of your work and I think ultimately they do need to have that especially when it comes time to make the hard choices to incentivize up or down. I think when you read through the whole report and I'm happy to answer questions offline too but for anybody in the legislature if they wanna have a look at the report and look at the other scenarios where you do have the slower electric vehicle adoption and you can see very clearly how much more fossil fuel we're paying for it. Our money's leaving Hawaii every day to pay for fossil fuels and so I'm happy to walk people through that what it does do is provide you the broad strokes of this is how much difference it makes if we incentivize electric vehicles looking ahead five years, 10 years and so on and so you can break it down already by how far ahead you're looking. The four different, there's four different scenarios to look at and so you can look at say that gradual increase to 55% electric vehicles on the road by 2045 and then look at the mandated renewable portfolio standards and look at that as more of a business as usual scenario and so that legislators can look at well what difference does it make if we over the next five, 10 years we aim to have that global projection for electric vehicles to reach 12.25% of vehicles on the road be electric by 2030. This has the journal publication that is free online access, open access. It's called Sun, Wind and Waves, EV Fossil Fuel Use and Emissions on an Isolated Oil Dependent Hawaiian Island. The overall trends can be seen in this so I think because of the efficiency of electric vehicles and our mandated renewable portfolio standards over the coming years as long as our long-term carbon neutral for the state. And so it just from the study it just shows that it's worthwhile to accelerate EV adoption. We're getting to 100% renewables on the grid and talking about technology developments in the future. We can be proud in a way we have the only grid connected wave energy test site in all of the US and we just received a 6 million in continued funding from the Navy to continue supporting wave energy development and testing in the related technologies ocean observing and so forth that help us help us identify hurricanes coming in all that good stuff. So... Okay, we're out of time. Mitch, you wanna do your... Yeah, let's throw up the last slide. So we can see where you can contact Catherine. I love that slide too. That's really good. So anyway, we've been talking to Catherine Mackenzie from HNEI of my alma mater as well. And she's put together a great report and a great study and it's actually been global which is awesome for her and for HNEI and for Hawaii actually because they got us out in front of the whole world. So this is really good stuff and some good information and we'll make everybody think in particular we hope the legislators and policy makers really zoom in on this. So thank you so much for bringing this to our attention, Cathy and for coming out and telling us about it today here on Hawaii, the state of clean energy signing off and thank you, Jay. Thank you, Mitch. Thank you, Cathy. Aloha, you guys. We should revisit the same subject again for your next report, your next project. You have to come on and we'll have a further discussion, Cathy. All right, thanks very much, Jay. Thanks, Mitch.