 Good day, fellow investors. I have recently started to analyze the fertilizer investment environment, all the stocks and I want to give you an overview of the sector. There are some good potential investments and I'll give you a list of stocks if you want to dig deeper. Let me start with the overview and then you get the picture. Okay, what is there? What are the risks? What are the benefits? What is my potential portfolio exposure? The key are the fundamentals for nutrients, for fertilizers. The global population is expected to grow 29% over the next, what, 40 years? Food production demand is expected to grow 60% as the world develops. A arable land is expected to even decline. That can be debatable given the global warming and what's going on. Global middle class is expected to double, triple nutrient consumption is expected to also increase 50%. So very positive trend, structural trend and now you have to see, okay, how can we invest in that? There are various kinds of fertilizers from the usual potash, nitrogen, phosphate to other premium fertilizers and nutrients. Each one is a special investment case so you have to see, okay, what is for me? The key with fertilizers as with any other commodity is that when prices are high, the level of investments are high, when prices are low, the level of investments are low. So you always have a cycle, cycle over time, over periods. We have had two booms in 2008 and 2012 and two busts 2009, 2016, 17 and now we are slowly, slowly recovering and the number of investments is slowing down but there are still a lot of investments that were planned, projected and started in 2012, 2013, 14, 15 that are now coming online and putting pressure on prices. As I said, you have to look at sector by sector, the potash sector, I have found interesting things supply is above demand usually and utilization is okay below 100% but what the nutrients CEO, the largest producer of potash says is that they can easily add 5 million tons of productive capacity at a very low cost. So they have the market there cornered and I would say that with all the other producers also hoping to lower their costs, this is K plus S, the between mine, they want to add production mosaic, wants to lower their costs, sees significant lowering of their costs as they are ramping up the adharnazi mine. So what I see in potash is okay increased supply as there is potential and lower costs, lower prices because everybody is focusing on lowering costs. This is usually not a great thing to invest but if I go to nutrient and I calculate the return, even in the current environment, they expect 4 billion in EBITDA that goes for 2 billion in cash flows, they expect higher in 2019. So I will say 2.5 billion in cash flows, they believe we are still down in the cycle but I think we are somewhere in the middle, so it can go up, it can go down, the market cap is 32 billion, so the return is what 7.8% like something like Apple. So let's say a good investment, good price, you are investing in the future of food structural trends, so I don't think you will lose much but the return is there, a single digit return. On phosphates, same thing there, utilization is not that high, there are phosphates also mined from different sides of the world with more or less cadmium. On the global cost curve you can see how it is pretty steep, so you can go for safety by buying the cheapest ones or you can risk it more if you think phosphate prices will go up by buying the most expensive ones. The cheapest producers are unfortunately in Russia, so if you feel like investing in Russia you might want to dig deeper there but I know a lot of people don't like investing in Russia. Now nitrogen fertilizers are not mined, those are produced using energy mostly natural gas somewhere coal but you also see the cost curve is very important, add the transport costs to ship it around the world and who gets the lowest gas prices is the winner. Nitrogen supply is also forecast to increase, has been increasing significantly but as there are lower prices you see how the increases are slower. Again an example of a company CF Industries looks like a good investment, in an average cycle they will make 1.5 billion in EBITDA, on a capex of 400 million their investment cycle is done, interest cost of 200 million, some other costs let's say they have 800 million in free cash flows, on the current market cap of 9.5 it's again what 8% return so we are all there priced with the good ones, some like the bad ones if we look at my list Kplus S very risky producer as they invested in the peak cycle and they have issues with their minds all over the world high costs so I would say CF Industries or Nutrien is much better than Kplus S from a risk perspective but if Kplus S delivers on their promises it might be a 10 beggar in the long term. Nutrien Intrepid Potash a small producer, SQM focusing on Lithium, Yara International Global Fertilizer producer they did many acquisitions, Mozyg, Phosphate and Potash working on lowering costs increasing production and therefore they give higher leverage to prices. So this was just an overview I'll discuss some of these stocks what comes out nice for a video so to give you a better overview I know a lot of you will probably want to have some exposure to fertilizers the cheapest stocks are in Russia white Russia where you can invest but that's hard to invest so you really need to dig deep if you want to invest there and see how it fits your portfolio thank you for watching look forward to the comments and I'll see you in the next video