 Welcome to digital asset news. My name is Rob. And today we got a lot of things to go over. So let's just jump by and we're gonna talk about There's some things that I've been seeing which sound good But I need everybody to be prepared it for what's gonna happen So we're gonna talk about the bear case where people are talking about how we're gonna have either a 10-year bear market Or just go sideways for 10 years and it's not we're never gonna hit an all-time high for another decade I'll take a look at the bull case And I think this is one that is more concerning to me is people are calling for Bitcoin and 250k by middle of 2023. So We'll take a look at that and then I just want to remind everybody that everybody is wrong even me So you just have to make sure that we make sure That the things that we're hearing about we can digest them and move forward and actually have a good plan So first things first you will notice that we are back in the Puerto Rico house We got the electricity back on things seem to be doing just fine And I'm pretty happy about that. However, uh, electricity is spotty right now. So if I go out, uh, nobody Is it's not for a nefarious purpose. It's just that the electricity System isn't that great right now. So before we get in all that Something just that just came across right now and I I think it's important that I talk about this first Before this blows up and uh, this is I'm glad you're here I'm really glad you're here because this is going to make It's going to make your day if it protects you. So this was a tweet From the CEO of of binance sees you binance. He says this As part of binance's exit from FTX equity last year Binance received roughly 2.1 billion USD equivalent in cash Which is BUSD and FTT which FTT is the FTX token and uh that is uh One of which is one of those uh monster Assets that FTX actually has is the FTT token CZ Binance says due to recent revelations that have come to light. We have decided to liquidate any remaining FTX or FTT tokens on our books And he goes on to say look, um We will try to do so in a way that minimizes market impact. Good luck Because there's not that much Liquidity there due to market conditions limited liquidity. We expect this will take a few months to complete Binance always encourages collaboration between industry players We're not trying to do anything is like bumming somebody off just how we're doing it We typically hold tokens for the long term as we have held in this token for this long But uh today is the time so why is this so important? Well, it's so important because there was a tweet we covered this Couple days ago. It was concerning. This is from Dylan Dylan the Claire smart guy Looks like he's a found in 21st paradigm UTXO management bitcoin management or bitcoin magazine. He says look I'll me a research Which is the investment arm of FTX has 14.6 billion of assets Against 8 billion of liabilities, which in all honesty sounds pretty good just that first sentence like wow You've got twice as money at twice as many assets you do liabilities But here's the problem for assets It's 3.6 billion FTX tokens or FTT and 2.16 billion collateral, which means it's pretty much locked up There's 3 billion of crypto 290 million Solana 863 and lock Solana that's another billion and 134 million USD and 2 billion in equity securities, so what Dylan was saying is like that's not good because FTX owns is pretty much most of that of the FTX token and uh when they start selling or somebody starts selling He goes you can't really sell too much too fast because it'll drop the price expeditiously so if you've got this going on with FTX and you got CZ going look we're gonna sell although he did say it's gonna they're gonna do this over a couple months I just need to warn everybody that if you're holding FTX or you're worried about FTX Now's the time to act look I Waited it a little bit too long on Celsius. Here was my timeline on june 12th I did a video after I went out and said hey, there's something going on I just got back from consensus in Austin and that was at 11 in the morning I would I said It's important that you don't have all your A's in one basket take crypto off of of Celsius And then 10 hours later withdrawals were frozen I put up the five rules on june 22nd I we found out that Voyager had invested heavily into three arrows capital 640 million dollars And I said take all your crypto off Voyager and then two weeks later the draws were frozen But I did a better job and now I'm trying to do the best job I can see those rules underneath there. That's for you That's that's for me. You can you can choose to follow or not and what I talk about here is The first one it's all gone that means that Don't invest more you can afford to lose I hear too many horror stories of people Selling their college kids money and selling kidneys and I'm just kidding. But you know, I mean you just invest too much Everything to scam and sell pretty otherwise don't leave anything on exchanges. There's a reason why We have a nano ledger or a tracer or whatever else for cold storage You can use any crypto exchange centralized exchange you want to but you must pull it off I can't say this enough Don't use leverage and take profits along the way So I'm just giving you a public service announcement because I don't know exactly what's going to happen here But it's concerning and where there's smoke. There's fire. Okay enough of the psa. Let's get the good stuff So this is what I really want to talk about The bear case uh, take it with a grain of salt. There's some things that just It sticks in my heads and it concerns me because I don't have the answers So I keep digging and digging digging till I get the answer because I want to I want to be prepared for every situation so what I'm talking about here is this This 10 year Flat scenario this 10 year all-time high this 10 year bear market scenario and I keep coming back to this because it concerns me But I think we'll be just fine. I'm gonna tell you why and we've talked about this. We've talked about this numerous times This is Stanley Druckenmiller. He's an investment legend He said it's going to be flat for a decade bear market whatever else and the reason why is because He says one key changes changes the reversal of globalization, which if you think about it makes sense, right? every First world country offload a lot of their labor a lot of their businesses and a lot of tax havens Two different countries china being the big one where they could ship all the jobs over there They could get labor for cheap and they could really Bump up the price of everything that they're importing exporting because that's globalization now, of course china is You know, they have a problem with Their shipping routes and also labor is getting more expensive. So there's gonna be reversal. I think jobs are gonna come back I welcome that I applaud that But he says that was drove high productivity contributing to disinflation Then he had the monetary policies the federal reserve interest rate hikes and blah blah blah Okay, so you've got him you got geves all the way who Love moratum. I mean he was right about the the bitcoin price When in 2021 now he's saying it could go his worst-case scenario is 3 000, but it's more likely around 12 to 15 Okay, sure I'm not gonna Dispute that here But he did say like look same thing 10 year flat market 10 year bear market and then also This is uh boas Weinstein He was a big player in the 2007 2008 crash as he called it perfectly and says hey Global stocks will be heading for a decades-long bear market And this is a again. I want to preface this a hedge fund manager so again Even though What they're taught what they're always drawing conclusions of except for boas. He's talking about The japan recession depression What they're talking about here is you know back in the 60s early 70s when you had an all-time high in the s&p 500 almost 900 somewhere around there and then it took us roughly until the 80 90s, excuse me 1991 to get back to that Same level, but I just want to remind everybody If this is the worst-case scenario that this actually does happen remind just remember that There's a bear market and then you can if you wait this is what I do I dollar cost average and I take profits on the way I'd be very happy with just buying buying buying and then taking profits as they go up here And coming down this way maybe not hitting here, but buying down here taking profits Coming down this way and then taking profits up and up and up and up So again, there's always there's always a bear market rally There's a bull market going on somewhere, but I want to remind everybody about this which is First of all, take it with a grain of salt. Here's how you get prepared. You take a look at this Bear markets and bull markets are cycles. This was a great Graphic from public news time. I linked in the description. You can look at it all day long It's very fascinating But it talks about bear and bull markets in 1900 2020 1920 and it says I'll just skip to the good stuff the total get out the total bull years total bull years 101 And they define that as when we go up 20 percent so They say if there's more than 20 percent or the the bear bull Excuse me the bull market is fine as a price decrease or increase more than 20 percent So bull market is up 20 percent bear market down 20 percent That's what they define it as which I can think we can all agree there You have 5.1 years average bull period that's in between because these little green Ascending Sending cliffs These are all the bull runs These are all the bull runs and in in the gray are all the bear markets Which we have to have those are normal We can't just keep going on forever right got to have a cool down And that's only 20.9 total bear years or 1.1 average bear Year on average so if this does happen and it plays out like that, it's okay Right, we're in control. We're like we know that this is a good time to Buy and take profits like we talk about maybe not a great time if you went all in in 2021 I don't know. I mean you can do that. You've got to wait a little bit longer It just depends on you so again, I just want to give you this scenario now Let's flip over to the bull case and this is the one I think that is It's a me. It's more concerning because Just like we talk about with the stock deal paradox the more Hopium you give people and time frames the more they get Their ambitions crushed when that time frame doesn't hit so I want you to just remember this This isn't financial advice, but it can go either way And if this happens great, but don't expect it to happen on this date And I put this video out for people who are new It's a crypto or new to investing is just that you're going to hear these time frames and these price predictions I used to do those too. I don't do those anymore because they're dumb But just be aware that this is what we have so first things first This is mark yusko. Who the heck is that? Well mark? He is the ceo and cio of morgan creek managing partner smart guy He seems to know his time as far as bitcoin digital assets crypto assets, but he's going to talk to you for about a minute He's going to tell you his case for Why he believes 250k Is right around the corner in 2023 so again take it with a grain of salt if this happens great If it doesn't happens no big deal. We'll figure it out as time goes on take a listen It comes from simple math. It's three to five years and it comes from from simple math that If we take gold The gold value in the world is 10 trillion But half of that doesn't count, right? It's chalices and jewelry and Stuff that you can't really use the other half is the monetary value the bricks and bars that's sitting people's You know accounts and you know fort nox and Um, you know swiss bank vaults and all that stuff. That's five trillion five trillion Okay, if you think about 21 million bitcoin, it's probably less than that You know, you do that math and you get a 250k number Okay, that works for me. So gold equivalents is about 250k um When would that happen? look if if If the next halving we add another zero that that speculative bubble in 4 20 25 it pushes us Into speculation, you know, could we get to 250? 200 is probably more likely but the 250 is possible So yeah, that was mark. So I got to tell you Kind of weak, but I mean Sure, maybe it could happen, but you're gonna see you're gonna hear this more and more You're gonna hear more about the 250k thing that's gonna happen It's gonna happen 2023 and when doesn't happen, which I don't think it's going to I want you to be crushed Now if it does happen, I'd be happy to be wrong. I'd be ecstatic to be wrong But I just want to warn everybody that don't get your hopes up because that's just what it is and then I wouldn't have put so much stock into it. I mean mark seems like a good guy seemed like he's you know, well versed in things And then he I didn't play this part, but his whole thesis was this he says that he talks about the value of bitcoin And he says once once real investors realize that The value of bitcoin is actually sub par They're gonna invest into it and then that'll raise the price which we have seen a little bit and of course institutions are coming in So to give them kudos, that's true And then he says Once we see that a lot of these investors Ones that figured out that the value is down that it raises the price then the traders get involved They go oh, well, I'm gonna go long and then I'm going to you know Play the market and that's gonna drive the price even up even more And then you get the retail the people who are quote-unquote dumb money and they kind of just foam away And he goes that'll that'll raise up even more. So you have those three factors I don't know if that's going to happen anytime soon, especially with the macro events But this other piece right here Is what you're going to hear a lot about coming up this one this gentleman right here This is tim draper. I like tim draper smart guys been a pretty big investor into uh, just some little companies like uh, like uber Pay pound He's been around and he's made some pretty big plays and he's the one that talks about bitcoin all the time but unfortunately, he Got one thing a little bit off tim draper extends the bitcoin price prediction by six months not bad And he says we're going to see 250k bitcoin by again 2023. Well, let's hope he's right now Just to be clear Tim has been right before draper said on april 2018 april 2018 He said that bitcoin reached 250k by 2022 He extended his forecast by six months and said okay. I was wrong about that one. Let's just go mid 2023 Uh, tim draper spoke of the three-day web summit event this year and explained that he's a fan of bear markets Crypto winner is a venture capitalists favorite time to be investing and just like what we talk about with mark over here Oops mark over here And he talks about the the value of bitcoin We know that bitcoin right now is is pretty on undervalued. So I can agree With mark and tim where this is my favorite time to be investing as well If you take a look at the mvrvz score, you go to look into bitcoin.com. It's 100 free. It's got some high quality charts What is this? There's three things They take the market value, which is the blue line, which is bitcoin multiply the number of coins They take the realized value, which is the orange line, which is really taking the Price of bitcoin it takes the price of each bitcoin on his last moved It then adds up all the imaginal prices and takes an average of them It multiplies the average by the total number of coins So when it's moved and the z score kind of just takes out all the noise So if we take a look here I mean we can see that there has been a couple of times when it was a pretty good idea to sell Right that was in 2013 all-time highs That was in 2017 again all-time highs and that was uh, when is this one? February april somewhere around there and when we almost had all times actually a little bit off in this one Doesn't matter. He never gonna hit the top anyhow. So right here is what's important the value And when the mvrvz score goes this low and it's been like this since june Uh, he's right and I've been glad gleefully buying uh around Also, we take a look this is one of my favorite ones The bitcoin raver price chart indicator and again, it's the same thing, but it makes it kind of simple people like me who are simpletons So let me just Zoom in here They really they they just made up this this new one this darker blue if you see right here the the green is the buy the Blue green is the fire sale or the buy buy And the and the blue one the dark blue is a fire sale and right now we've been in this channel for quite some time So I gotta agree with tim on this one. He's right. This is my favorite time to invest the problem is is that Tim thinks we're gonna hit 250k again and whether he's right or wrong I can't really tell you but I will say that on september 12 2014 Draper told coin desk. He goes. Hey, I got a price target of $10,000 in three years 2014 let me do some quick math 2015 16th in okay in three years Tim thought He had a price target of $10,000 He goes and even that made me pessimistic and he was right because we hit 19,700 somewhere around there So on that one totally correct As he's as he's moving forward Now he's like well, maybe 250 again Don't get caught up in the details if it happens it happens doesn't it doesn't I just want to make mention of this and that is like for the hedge fund guys like boas Tim draper is more of a vc kind of guy Uh morgan morgan creep morgan creek and those guys Take it with a grain of salt Because if you think hedge funds are the geniuses, they're not There's this thing called the buffett's bet and I link this in the description so you can read it And I haven't talked about this in quite some time, but it holds true today Buffett's bet was this moran buffett said he issued a challenge in 2008 He goes look all you get your hedge funds are you're awful And with all the fees and the things that you do and the and the three-card montee He says and this is Warren Buffett not me speaking I kind of believe in this in some way he goes I bet you that if someone invests in the s&p 500, uh, they would still beat you Just by setting and forgetting it and only one Hedge fund took it protege partners llc And they placed a million dollar bet Well, the co-founder left the fund in 2015 and he conceded a feat in 2017. He says look I lost Buffett's ultimate successful contention was that including fees costs and expenses the s&p 500 index would outperform a handpick portfolio of hedge funds over 10 years so Take that for what it is I still think that I know you can trade it up and do all those things but like for me dollar cause I was working pretty well so far And again, don't do what I do, but it has it's done. Well, this isn't financial advice I'm able to take profits. I'm able to save for the long haul and I think Even if we go through these these recessionary periods like we see over here I think that we're still going to be just fine again 2012 having all-time high dip reset 2016 17 18 19 having all-time high dip reset 2020 to 2023 or right around 2022. I don't see us hitting 250k in 2023 But I could be wrong. I hope I am. I think we're gonna have a recession 2023 And going into 2024 and then we hit things in 2025 But again, could it happen? Could I be wrong? Yeah Most definitely and maybe it happens in 2024 or 2023. The big thing is is this there's two two big things This is from this is Ben's website and the cryptiverse I try to steal from his website as much as possible, but I can't show the good stuff So you got to sign up for it link in the description if we take a look at The logarithm progression bands are bitcoin fair value. What do you notice? You notice that In 2011 there's a pretty good run, but in 2013 we went way above the fair market value In 2017 in the next one. We went way above fair market value in 2021 We did pretty good. Not but we went above The fair market value. Did we not? So I just want to show you this If we extrapolate this and go out in the 2025 The upper bound of this is 173,000 the fair market value is 142 and the lower bound is 116,000 so if we're First of all, if I'm wrong and we hit the lower bound which we never have for a bull market What we'll still have a six-figure bitcoin And if we hold true to form And we're above the fair market or the upper bound we're almost at 200k in 2025 So just want to keep you abreast of the situation on that. I I still think we have a long way to go and uh, that's just what I have also If you want to take a look at just how I plan to play it this time Which last time I did okay. I took some some good profits in 2021 just didn't hit as much as I should have but The idea is this there's a website down. He just crypto 100 free And when you log in have to you sign up put this in There's a video And I go through all the basics and all and one more thing like if you want to figure out how to use a ledger The thing I was talking about in beginning about the ftx issue and cz. Binance taken all are selling all his is all the ftt token I show you how to use a ledger very simply all throughout here. So Ah, go check that out. But the video is going to talk about was investing Module three my golden rules risk and There's my 2024 25 bull run exit strategy Watch this one and then the big one When and why i'm selling 80 of all my crypto and I use ben's website heavily Uh for the factors because at some point we're going to overheat Just like we saw in all the different ones when took away the mvrvz score We took a look at the fair market value score That it's going to overheat at some point and at that point i'm out Uh a big portion of that and then I just wait for it to crash again Just like what i'm doing right now and then buying back. So that's it for today. So look Oh That's it for today. So look if you like today's video give it a thumbs up I'll consider subscribing a lot of things we talk about are pretty time sensitive, especially that's little story about cz. Binance That's uh, that's very concerning But that's it if you want to stick around we're going to do a little q&a And once you're all your burning questions the best of my abilities and we'll go from there If not get out of here go watch football. Have a great day and that is it But now let's get into my favorite part of the video q&a Let's go