 Well, you've heard very interesting and very different presentations and now it's your turn, so we'll open the floor to questions. We'll take a series of questions and then ask the presenters to respond. Yes. Thank you. My name is Jahangiram Chaudhary. I'm from Bangladesh, I teach at the University of Dhaka. My question to the last presenter is that, okay, regarding you have shown the potential of producing energy from renewable sources, but the point is that have you done any sort of like cost-benefit analysis, how much cost it will incur in terms of the compared to the benefits that we'll give and compared to the conventional energy sources that you have, is it going to be financially beneficial to the countries if they go for renewable energies? This is my question. Okay, thank you. Other questions? Hey, I'm Kim Kim from the Hebrew University. I have a question for the first presenter. It's really just an anecdote, but you started your presentation by saying that a genie of 0.2 for Egypt is perhaps too low compared to Switzerland and some other countries. I don't know if it's really relevant because Egypt could be in pretty bad shape, even if everybody is equally poor. So maybe that's not a good enough reason for the our spring to start in Egypt or not, but one back back here. Hi, Rabah Harski, IMF. So on the first presenter, so you were referring to a paper on food prices and conflict. There's a lot of literature on that. So I can point you to some of the paper that I know of. One of the papers is one of mine with Marcus Bruckner where we document systematically for a very large sample of country the role that food prices, the role it played in, you know, causing riots and conflict across the world over a lot of periods. Then on, so I felt that your paper was trying to do too much because you, I mean, you subsequently talked about climate change, food prices, you talked about inequality. So I felt one of the big, big component on the agricultural sector in the world is this phenomenon called the global land rush. So I'm sure you heard about this large investor acquiring very large chunk of land. And then I think the most important aspect here is the transformation of the potential transformation of the agricultural sector in the sense that there's a trend of potentially modernizing this agriculture that has been for too long, too traditional, not modern. So the yield gain may come from modernization and understand that climate change may revert that or at least reduce that. But you can't talk about reduction in the yield without talking about the biggest development, which I feel are those large acquisition of land, perhaps driven by climate change threat. But you know, it would be, I think it would be a bit naive to omit this issue. And then I feel your tools, the general equilibrium tool you're using are extremely important because one of the results we find in our paper is the importance of the impact of food prices on inequality. But then what you have, I mean, in your model is very useful because you could specifically look at the welfare of the farmer, the urban household. And I think one of the key aspect there is that, you know, we don't really care if the country is food importer, net importer or exporter. What we care about is the tension that would result from the increase in food prices. So if your analysis can shed light on, you know, the evolution or the respective evolution of welfare of those different categories and shed light on why is there potential conflict or more tension in some other country beyond going, beyond looking at inequality, the genie coefficient, but really looking at what's going on. And as you know, I mean, you know, the gap between urban poor and rural poor in a way, as widened, but in the favor of the rural poor because they have home grown production, they are shielded from international food prices. And all that could be analyzed in a much greater depth thanks to your model. So I'm happy to talk. Net food exporter position. But I think that brings about a lot of problems for these countries because with, for example, Turkey is an increasing population. And in order to maintain this food exporting position, Turkey will need to invest a lot in the agriculture. And the first point is that is it that easy to maintain that food exporting position under climate change? What do you think? Secondly, okay, is selling food to the rest of the world or being a net exporter of food really winning? Because you can sell food to the rest of the world by increasing the domestic prices, right? You can simply sell food to the outside. But meanwhile, your consumers can be losing significantly by paying higher prices to the domestic products. And so I'm not very sure about this winning and losing thing. What do you think about that? Thank you. Thanks very much. I've got a question for Clemens and a question for Giugetta. The question for Clemens was you concluded by saying that actually it could be the rural farmers who come out best over other people. But we know from climate change that there's going to be great variability. And you may be better off in the long run if things average out. But you have to survive those few shocks. Is your model able to take those shocks into account? Because it could very well be that many farmers have driven off the land in those very bad periods. My question for Giugetta really picks up on the first question from the gentleman from Bangladesh, which was if you did do economic analysis, did you factor in the impact of climate change on these countries' ability to maintain coal power plants and the need for cooling, given what you were saying about water stress? Thank you. One back here. Thank you. I have one question to the second presentation about the fact that it seems that lacking the kind of coordination between the different actors. And my question is about at what level the discussion should be to make that consensus about urbanization and to address the climate change issue and its impact of climate change. Because it seems that there is a problem of communication. But also, in addition to communication, there is a problem of coordination. There is not really enough coordination between the different level and with different actors. So to succeed in that process, we need a kind of consensus between all the stakeholders. How we can make that in the minor region context? So question for the last presentation is about what about the local demand on renewable energy? Do you have an idea if there is, because in the innovation process, demand is very important. Is there a local market, really, for renewable energy in minor region? It's about European demand. That means it's a demand from the European country that they want really to develop renewable energy for their own purposes. But when it comes to the local market, it seems that the demand is lacking. So if it is so, that means whatever we do in terms of institution is or implementing innovation, this process will not be succeed because it's not really locally driving. So do you have an idea about if there is any kind of demand at the local market? Thank you. Any more questions? We've got a pretty full plate here. I'm going to add a couple of quick ones. Georgia, you mentioned a lot about the potential for Morocco exporting to Europe. I do work on energy in Morocco and I know that's true. They talk a lot about it. But I'd like your opinion on how realistic it is, at least for the near term. And Islam, I'd like if you would just please comment on do you think passive solar is used or adapted enough as much as it should be in Egypt? It seems there should be a lot of potential for it. But my experience in Egypt suggests maybe not. But I'd like your view on that. Glamis, you want to start? You see the advantage of putting a lot into a presentation. You get a lot of interesting questions. So I'm happy for that. Thank you. So let me take them like step by step. The first one, inequality, does it really matter if all the people are poor? I mean, we are talking about the Middle East. And I don't think this is a theoretical construct. If we go at any of those countries, and especially Egypt, that you may or may not jump in at this point. But there is huge inequality that you see on the ground and with the eyes. And so it's not like all people are poor, but some people are extremely rich and some people are poor. So there is definitely inequality there that is not reflected in the data. There is also other ways to figure out. So for example, my colleagues from UNDP, they looked at household surveys and from which the Gini coefficients are actually calculated. And they looked at, okay, how much do those household surveys actually capture the broad population? And they did that by adding up private consumption from the household surveys in different countries and compare it to national accounts, private consumption. Now you wouldn't expect that they match perfectly, but you would expect if the samples and so on is done properly, that they are somewhere close. Now if you look, and that's true for most of the countries, but taking Egypt again specifically, they found that only 50% of the private consumption that is reported in national accounts is found in the household surveys. So there's some more indication of the fact that there's something wrong with the calculation simply rather than misrepresenting the story on the ground. Then FDI surely plays a big role. I understand Arab countries are rather investors and not recipients, especially the Gulf countries also Egypt, investing in Sudan and so on. And I'm not quite sure if I got your point. On the one hand side, you said that there was a lot of stuff in the presentation. On the other hand side, you're saying FDI is missing. Yes, that could also be added, but then we would end up with even more comprehensive. I absolutely agree with that. Yes. Then on population growth and whether or not Turkey can maintain a net food exporting position, I'm sure you will figure that out with your new project. It's hard to say, but what I would like to say is if we say like some farmers may lose and that also ties into the next question, then obviously we are not talking about the consumer side of things. And I haven't reported those results, but the nice thing about CGE models, they also take the consumer side into account and local or global effects, no matter what the consumer is likely to lose because, well, the net income will go down because of the real income will go down because of the higher prices that have to be paid by the food. And it's true that the model as it stands does not capture the volatility and that may drive out farmers out of the market. And so that's certainly something to acknowledge here. Yes, thank you. Islam? Yes. Let's go let the others, we have time at the end. Yes, but let's let's let the others please. Okay. For the first question regarding to how can we manage, we have for landscape, we have horizontally between cities, each other, this is between policies or governor, this is why and vertically we have this is policy strategy and action. Therefore, my imagination that we can manage with this chapter, which I call it landscape architecture chapter, this can manage the policies between in horizontal level and increase the awareness by lectures by this pilot project to increase the awareness for people. How can they help decision makers to implement this policy? Because in action plan, if people within the local of action plan are not convinced or are not aware by aware, sorry, by the important of the issue, they will not cooperate and no success will be happened. Therefore, my imagination that if we can deliver the message to the the streets or the people in the streets to convince them about the importance, how can we deal with this landscape architecture issues? How can we save our energy? How can we save our planet in general? This is could be very benefit and helpful to make the policy a success between each country and each other. Especially when we're talking about this is what we call it in the spring now, everybody is doing what we would like to do without following any sort of discipline or policy or integration with each other. Therefore, the problem now it's increasing in a dramatic way. My vision that if we can create these chapters like urban observatory, this is here indicating this there to cooperate with each other, this problem happened there, so how can we study the analysis and the feedback? This is for my my thought about this issue with my experience for this field. About the passive solar I hardly hundred percent, you are absolutely right. But I would like to continue what my colleagues said about the senses in Egypt. Really, there is some sort of missing misleading in the information which we have. Really, there is diversity without no equity and you can find some people extra range especially in this gated community and suddenly you can find very poor. There is no clear senses or no clear information regarding to this part. Therefore, we have always find this misleading in information. Sure, Egypt is not like Switzerland and this hundred percent. But the problem that my colleague presented I believe which I understand really there is missing observing and detecting the data especially about the application that's applied for such issues. Thank you. Okay, so with respect to the first question on the cost-benefit analysis, yeah that's it's a very good point that you make. We have not in this study we have not looked at we have not performed the cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in the region but there are some studies that are looking at these issues not sufficiently yet but it's picking up something that is clear from existing studies is that maintaining the current energy mix in the region is not very sustainable in the long term because of volatility in fuel prices and increasing energy demand relying on fossil fuel would be costlier than shifting to renewable energy despite the high investment cost that is necessary to start such a development process and within renewable energy I think it's important to differentiate between different technologies because if we look at the wind energy and solar photovoltaics these technologies are already at parity or very close to parity with conventional electricity generation so it would it's a feasible it becomes a feasible more feasible investment in terms of job creation benefits I think the question mark there is higher to what extent these technologies are likely to contribute to social development and reduce the unemployment problem that the region is confronting with and certainly much more research needs to be invested in on in that topic to to really measure quantify the economic and social impact from in that respect and also with the Malcolm's point on water scarcity yeah it's so again we have not looked at this specific aspect in our study but there is there are a couple of studies that are looking at these issues one in particular is the DLR study that you looks at the deployment of CSP technologies in the region and the impact on water and the conclusion or some of the points that they are making is that we need to look at different types of CSP technologies that are less water intensive that use dry cooling or other types of cooling technologies that are not so water intensive which in principle creates opportunities for the region to really invest into innovation and technology adaptation of existing technologies to the region yeah so that's and also with respect so with respect to the question in the back related to whether there is a really a local demand to renewable energy so as I mentioned in the presentation demand for energy is quite high and is likely to increase in in the future so renewable energy can play you could say from that respect that yes there is a local demand for renewable energy but the presently the current institutional framework is not strong enough to stimulate local deployment to the potential that exists so for instance in morocco there is a very good law that enables the deployment of or the connection of high voltage renewable energy plants for wind and solar to the grid but it restricts the connection of low and medium voltage solar projects to the grid so that ultimately blocks a certain market creation in in the country so these aspects need to be or these barriers need to be removed to enable a larger demand or national demand local demand okay so with respect to exports yeah it's I think it's a question that's on everybody's mind when we talk about the human energy integration and how likely this great vision is to actually trickle down to or result in implementation and I think theoretically obviously there is a lot of it's very likely that such a project could take place but there are a lot of political and institutional barriers that might hinder energy exports in the short in the short maybe also medium term and these political and institutional barriers do not necessarily in come from the southern Mediterranean countries from morocco, Egypt, Tunisia that where you would say yes there are clear benefits we can benefit from foreign exchange as a result of imports exports but comes from the northern Mediterranean countries where it's very difficult to reach an agreement among the countries of who buys the electricity at what price whose feeding tariff, Germany's feeding tariff or Spain's feeding tariff or maybe we need to come up with a new feeding tariff and these political negotiations are perhaps much more challenging than the technical solutions that was the impression that I had just one foot note on the your question about the economics we're doing work now with the moroccan ministry of energy in the commissariat to basically we're using a cge energy model for morocco to estimate what the impacts of different levels of penetration of solar and wind energy are on the moroccan economy it's not a micro level benefit cost but it's an economy wide benefit cost and so that should be completed by your next year and be available to the two ministries in morocco so it's they're not ignoring the economics of it thank you all for coming it's been a lively and interesting session appreciate it very much thanks to our presenters