 One other country is also facing real demographic collapse and real demographic challenges actually in the short run is in worse shape than China. And that country of course, maybe not of course, but that country is Russia. I mean Russia is really facing a kind of a nightmare scenario, you know, in many respects they deserve it. But the reality is that a China's population is shrinking dramatically. Over the last three years, the country has lost around two million people, then it would ordinarily have lost because of war, because of COVID, and because of people leaving, and people are leaving to a large extent because of the war. Life expectancy of Russian males, aged 15, fell by almost five years to the same level as in Haiti. Life expectancy of Russian males is the same level as in Haiti, but not Russian males in Haiti, Haiti men in Haiti. The number of Russians born in April 2022 was no higher than it was in 1942-43. And right now, because so many young men have died on the battlefield or wounded on the battlefield, and because so many young men have escaped Russia and left Russia, gone to a place like Georgia and Kazakhstan and any country that will take them, women outnumber men in Russia by 10 million, which is a massive number. By some estimates, between 175,000 and 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded over the past year. Russia estimates are lower, but of course they're not going to admit it. But 500,000 to one million young men have, and these are primarily educated men, these are primarily relatively high owners, have left Russia and found employment and found homes outside of Russia. So what you've got is a war that is costing a huge amount of money for the Russian economy. You've got an aging population, you've got an ailing population, and you've got a shrinking population. Not a good combination, not a good combination. Russia started this decline a long time ago, about 30 years ago, a Russian population peaked in, and this is from an economist article on March 5th published today, a Russian population peaked in 1984 at 149 million. It went down, it's been zigzagging downward since, it was 145 million in 2021, and within a couple of, a few decades, it could be 120 million, given the patterns we are seeing and what is going on, what is going on right now, I don't know what happened here. The number of births in 2022 is the lowest since the 18th century, 18th century. And you look at this, Russia is kind of fading. And maybe that's part of why Putin wanted a war, maybe he wanted to bring in some Russian speakers from Ukraine, maybe it's an act of desperation, maybe it's just an act of preservation for the regime, knowing everything is so horrible domestically and diverting attention elsewhere. Russia also did very badly during COVID, total excess deaths in 2020 to 2023 has been between 1.2 and 1.6 million. And by the way, for those out there who believe that COVID vaccines are what create excess deaths, it is interesting that particularly mRNA vaccines that Russia didn't use in mRNA vaccine, and they still have 1.2 to 1.6 million deaths. It's speculated that Russia may have the largest COVID death toll in the world as a percentage of the population. Maybe after India, India probably is number one, China is probably number two. Again, by the way, no mRNA vaccines. So between 20 to 22 to 2023, Russia has lost between 1.9 and 2.8 million people more than would have been expected with no pandemic and no war. This war has deep negative consequences, deep negative consequences for the Russian people and for individuals in Russia. I guess the better people have left. So again, very aging population, the young people in Russia that are there just are going to have to carry a higher burden of taking care of older people, paying for them and of course sustaining an economy, sustaining their own lives. Again, it's going to be very hard to innovate, it's going to be very hard to produce, it's going to be very hard to be cutting edge in anything. And really what's happening right now is that Russia has a third world mortality even though its population is highly educated. Of course, a lot of those highly educated people have left Russia. So it is interesting, it's not exclusive to these countries but it is interesting that the two large supposedly threatening countries out there, Russia and China, are both facing real economic demographic challenges and demographic and economic are significantly related to one another. Now a lot of other countries in the world are facing demographic problems, certainly all of Western Europe is. The United States without immigration is certainly facing a demographic problem. But here in many respects the problems are much worse because not only is dynamism constrained by an authoritarian government, but it's constrained by the exodus or the lack of young people. So both of these economies, both of these countries I think are going to suffer significantly more than any Western countries. And also I think it's harder to reverse in an authoritarian country these kind of trends. So I wouldn't be surprised if some Western countries reverse the low birth rate trend that they're in right now by becoming more positive, more optimistic, maybe freer. Whereas I don't expect that kind of reversal in either China or Russia. Thank you for listening or watching The Iran Book Show. If you'd like to support the show, we make it as easy as possible for you to trade with me. You get value from listening, you get value from watching, show your appreciation. 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